All right, came back with 2-0 day and 5-5 in the tournament, looking for bigger and better things. Today I have 4* on Wisconsin and 3* on Duke.
The Left Coast Connection had another winning day and is 6-4 to date after the first two days.
Today they have:
Top Play: Duke
The Rest - Wisconsin
Marquette just missed making the 75 percent grade.
Good Luck Today.
Day Two NCAA Thoughts
If you had spent all day and all night in Ybor City among the local bars and restaurants and came home to turn on SportsCenter, you couldn’t have imagined that FOUR double digit seeds would have pulled four outright upsets in nearby St. Pete’s. Western Kentucky couldn’t miss and Drake didn’t get back on defense for the first 27 minutes. Drake’s furious rally spoke to there courage, however Lady Luck was fickle to the Bulldogs when Ty Rogers drained about a 30-footer in rhythm for the win. Next was Connecticut as 12-point favorite, who played genuinely uninspired basketball against San Diego, who just wanted it more and got. That was coach Jim Calhoun’s first, first round exit as a Huskies coach.
Vanderbilt played just like UConn, deciding defense was something for others to do. The Commodores reputation as strictly a home court team is richly deserved. Still haven’t figured out what happened to Clemson in loss to Villanova. They played the last 20 minutes like they were having panic attacks. For those that believe Memphis can overcome its free throwing shooting to win six games in the tournament, the Tigers of Clemson proved how difficult that can be.
During the tournament, the best officials are supposed to be used. What is disturbing is they like to be noticed on TV. The rash of charging calls over the first two days was mind-boggling. Maybe it is no different than any other game or possibly with so many games to watch and choose from, it just seems this way. But tighter officiating does not mean its better. College basketball has to go to NBA half circle in the lane. WAY too many players in the college game run up under players, under the basket and collapse on contact. A player can’t get a running start towards the hoop without somebody running underneath, forcing officials to make calls. Another solution is old-school basketball, if a player undercuts the player taking it to the rim, fall right on top of him with full body weight. Then see if he tries it again.
Do you think every ACC coach and recruiter is kicking themselves again after seeing Stephen Curry torch Gonzaga for 40? Indiana went away like dropped call after Sampson phone-gate. The university, as reported by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer, had announced they were starting a search committee to find a new coach. That is shear brilliance as your team starts playing in the NCAA Tournament. The school literally was saying they are writing off interim (very interim) head coach Dan Dakich and looking to put this year’s team behind them. The Hoosiers played just like what the school thought of them.
Betting numbers update:
On Friday, favorites were 10-6 and 8-8 ATS. Higher seeds were also 8-8 against the spread, with the Over 10-6. This brings the tournament total to favorites 22-11 ATS, higher seeds 20-12 ATS and the OVER 20-13.
Vanderbilt played just like UConn, deciding defense was something for others to do. The Commodores reputation as strictly a home court team is richly deserved. Still haven’t figured out what happened to Clemson in loss to Villanova. They played the last 20 minutes like they were having panic attacks. For those that believe Memphis can overcome its free throwing shooting to win six games in the tournament, the Tigers of Clemson proved how difficult that can be.
During the tournament, the best officials are supposed to be used. What is disturbing is they like to be noticed on TV. The rash of charging calls over the first two days was mind-boggling. Maybe it is no different than any other game or possibly with so many games to watch and choose from, it just seems this way. But tighter officiating does not mean its better. College basketball has to go to NBA half circle in the lane. WAY too many players in the college game run up under players, under the basket and collapse on contact. A player can’t get a running start towards the hoop without somebody running underneath, forcing officials to make calls. Another solution is old-school basketball, if a player undercuts the player taking it to the rim, fall right on top of him with full body weight. Then see if he tries it again.
Do you think every ACC coach and recruiter is kicking themselves again after seeing Stephen Curry torch Gonzaga for 40? Indiana went away like dropped call after Sampson phone-gate. The university, as reported by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer, had announced they were starting a search committee to find a new coach. That is shear brilliance as your team starts playing in the NCAA Tournament. The school literally was saying they are writing off interim (very interim) head coach Dan Dakich and looking to put this year’s team behind them. The Hoosiers played just like what the school thought of them.
Betting numbers update:
On Friday, favorites were 10-6 and 8-8 ATS. Higher seeds were also 8-8 against the spread, with the Over 10-6. This brings the tournament total to favorites 22-11 ATS, higher seeds 20-12 ATS and the OVER 20-13.
NCAA Tournament Evening thoughts
In the evening session, hats off to Belmont, it would have been great to see Duke go down. This is a team that appears to be exhausted, playing on fumes. They gutted out win; however can they possibly come back on short notice against West Virginia on less than 48 hours notice? The Mountaineers played a very good game in committing only eight turnovers versus over-rated Arizona. The nodding heads from Tempe, AR were saying we would have played better than the there neighbors to the south.
Have to say was surprised USC didn’t play with more determination in loss to Kansas State. Coach Frank Martin did a masterful job in having his Wildcat team prepared, changing defenses and running baseline cuts for easy baskets. His intelligence in protecting Michael Beasley was notable, as was the 6’10 freshman’s play in staying out of further foul trouble.
Bobby Knight had suggested raising the field to 128 teams, which in theory at least makes sense to eliminate minor squabbling about who belongs in tournament. After seeing the efforts of Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, George Mason and for the most part Cal-State Fullerton, the idea seems pointless.
Numbers to chew on:
*Favorites were 14-2 and 13-3 ATS
*The higher seeds were 13-3 and 12-4 ATS.
*The numbers vary from place to place; however here I have the OVER 9-7 and have seen it listed as 10-6 in other locales. Hats off to the oddmakers, who were within two points on seven of the games played.
Have to say was surprised USC didn’t play with more determination in loss to Kansas State. Coach Frank Martin did a masterful job in having his Wildcat team prepared, changing defenses and running baseline cuts for easy baskets. His intelligence in protecting Michael Beasley was notable, as was the 6’10 freshman’s play in staying out of further foul trouble.
Bobby Knight had suggested raising the field to 128 teams, which in theory at least makes sense to eliminate minor squabbling about who belongs in tournament. After seeing the efforts of Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, George Mason and for the most part Cal-State Fullerton, the idea seems pointless.
Numbers to chew on:
*Favorites were 14-2 and 13-3 ATS
*The higher seeds were 13-3 and 12-4 ATS.
*The numbers vary from place to place; however here I have the OVER 9-7 and have seen it listed as 10-6 in other locales. Hats off to the oddmakers, who were within two points on seven of the games played.
Round One Afternoon Thoughts
Xavier decided to play with 15 minutes to go in the game and overwhelmed an obviously less talented Georgia team. Once the passion button was pushed, the Musketeers rolled. One note on this game, with Bulldogs up nine at the half, Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis were saying Georgia attacks the basket and plays good defense. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Georgia win FOUR SEC games all season! Now they are talking about them, like they are a good team, Please!
Hate to say this, but Kent State choked under the pressure of the tournament. Shooting 20 percent with 15 turnovers in the first half, WOW! UNLV did nothing unique or play stupendously, they just took what the Golden Flashes literally gave them.
Temple showed little emotion and never got back on defense. Oral Roberts, Cornell, Portland State and Baylor were simply outclassed.
The favorites and higher seeds won all eight games and were 7-1 ATS. Honestly rather boring, but good for chalk players.
Hate to say this, but Kent State choked under the pressure of the tournament. Shooting 20 percent with 15 turnovers in the first half, WOW! UNLV did nothing unique or play stupendously, they just took what the Golden Flashes literally gave them.
Temple showed little emotion and never got back on defense. Oral Roberts, Cornell, Portland State and Baylor were simply outclassed.
The favorites and higher seeds won all eight games and were 7-1 ATS. Honestly rather boring, but good for chalk players.
Consensus Plays from Top Players
The Left Coast Connection was 18-12, 60 percent during the conference tournaments. Here are their consensus plays.
Top - Xavier
The Rest - Notre Dame - Oral Roberts - Kent State - Marquette.
They were split down the middle on Bay/Pur, Wash. St/Winthrop, Mich. St./Temple and USC/K-State.
Top - Xavier
The Rest - Notre Dame - Oral Roberts - Kent State - Marquette.
They were split down the middle on Bay/Pur, Wash. St/Winthrop, Mich. St./Temple and USC/K-State.
NCAA Tournament Picks
After a so-so regular season and a less than adequate conference tournament campaign, it is time to cash in. In all honesty, I'm feeling very confident. I'm more prepared then I have been in a couple of years. This year, if I lose, no regrets, I studied and prepared as well as I could, but really don't see that happening.
Here are picks:
4* Xavier
3* Kent State -BYU -USC
2* West Virginia - Purdue - Temple - Oral Roberts
Good luck to you today!
Here are picks:
4* Xavier
3* Kent State -BYU -USC
2* West Virginia - Purdue - Temple - Oral Roberts
Good luck to you today!
Betting System for First Round NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Basketball Tournament clock is ticking to start yet another exciting and thrilling event. By now, you have filled out your brackets and it is time to get down to serious business. Linemakers from all the wagering outlets in Las Vegas and the state of Nevada have diligently put out numbers designed to attract action on both sides, to gobble up the “juice”. This time of year, no funny business, no theories about oddsmakers setting traps, this is wagering in its purest form, pitting the college basketball bettor against those making the numbers, going mano-a- mano.
In order to pick winners in the first round, you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings. Thus the question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?
What I have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece this system, because once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action. Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.
Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
We. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st
Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now that they have been selected to participate in the field of 65. (The first two numbers) Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month. (Third number) Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The fourth and fifth numbers) The last piece of this exercise is how they finished in their conference tourney. (The last number)
In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary to close the season, against Western Kentucky who has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt post-season tournament. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time. In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power with outstanding individual talent, who seems to be slipping, offering value as dog.
Here is another example; in this case we have two bigger name teams in what could be viewed as a 6 vs.11 first round matchup, with each finishing season differently.
Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals
The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February. Kentucky on the other hand has come on like gang-busters and is easy on the eyes, like one of their biggest supporters Ashley Judd. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.
In the 18 years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.
After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier. Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.
I wrote this article for StatFox.com.
In order to pick winners in the first round, you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings. Thus the question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?
What I have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece this system, because once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action. Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.
Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
We. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st
Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now that they have been selected to participate in the field of 65. (The first two numbers) Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month. (Third number) Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The fourth and fifth numbers) The last piece of this exercise is how they finished in their conference tourney. (The last number)
In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary to close the season, against Western Kentucky who has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt post-season tournament. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time. In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power with outstanding individual talent, who seems to be slipping, offering value as dog.
Here is another example; in this case we have two bigger name teams in what could be viewed as a 6 vs.11 first round matchup, with each finishing season differently.
Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals
The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February. Kentucky on the other hand has come on like gang-busters and is easy on the eyes, like one of their biggest supporters Ashley Judd. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.
In the 18 years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.
After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier. Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.
I wrote this article for StatFox.com.
Betting Future Winner of NCAA Tournament
The field of 65 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about home run wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.
Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.
Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.
Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.
Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.
7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard
7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament
It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.
Number of consecutive wins:
26 – Memphis
21- Drake
20 – Davidson, Kansas
18- North Carolina
16- Vanderbilt, Cornell
14- Washington State
13- Indiana
12 – Duke
11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky
10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama
Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.
The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.
Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.
In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.
The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.
Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.
In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.
Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.
A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?
Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.
The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.
Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.
Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.
Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.
Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.
Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.
7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard
7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament
It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.
Number of consecutive wins:
26 – Memphis
21- Drake
20 – Davidson, Kansas
18- North Carolina
16- Vanderbilt, Cornell
14- Washington State
13- Indiana
12 – Duke
11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky
10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama
Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.
The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.
Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.
In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.
The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.
Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.
In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.
Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.
A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?
Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.
The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.
Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.
NCAA Tourney Talk
In order to move ahead, you have to know where you came from. Here are observations from the conference tournaments.
North Carolina played hard when they needed to. This is Final Four material and they should get there, but this team has the defensive attention span of a small child. Virginia Tech schooled them for 32 minutes until they quit dreaming about playing the Dukies again. Speaking of the Coach K's, Sweet 16 at best for this bunch. They have peaked and have almost nothing inside. Players look worn out from long season.
Temple won the A-10, did you realize they were 13-11 a month ago? This team can shoot and will upset Michigan State in opening game, in humble opinion. (Not that humble really) Xavier, just not that that enamored with them.
If Pittsburgh could play like they did for 4 days in the Big Apple, this team would be Elite 8 material. Never like teams that win four in four in NCAA, too much emotion sucked out. G-Town capable, yet something not quite right, no Final Four. One team that looked like a lock for San Antonio even two weeks ago was Louisville; however recent games have me thinking otherwise. The Cardinals play their best when the ball goes through David Padgett. The courageous center appears to be wearing down and his teammates don't have the ball go through him enough on offense. UConn not going anywhere, Notre Dame lacks quickness (thou dangerous shooters), West Virginia could surprise once, Marquette beats Kentucky and could defeat Stanford if bigs hold there own against Stanford twins.
I did manage to get a little shuteye when Big Ten games were on. These games are like global warming, you know something is happening, but you don't need to watch all the time, because it is moving so slowing. If you saw Minnesota make miracle shot against Indiana (very cool), before that it appeared the fix was in as Big Ten officials called two stupid fouls on Golden Gophers in final seconds, which were marginal at best. The impression was they were doing everything to have Hoosiers advance, except they kept missing free throws. Not on conspiracy bandwagon, yet it was tough not to notice. Wisconsin wins a couple, so does Purdue, Indiana is gone quicker then a Kelvin Sampson dropped call. The talent level is terrible in this league, need new coaches with different ideas.
Kansas and Texas played the best game all week in in Big 12 title game. Two great teams, playing flawless offense, this is what James Naismith had in mind.
According to unofficial poll, 90 percent of for pay handicappers had Akron beating Kent State. I sent out email to Left Coast group, Kent State is real deal, they'll win by double digits. At least that was right. Good solid team that beats UNLV and gives Kansas trouble for longer than presumed.
BYU is better then UNLV, just couldn't overcome Rebels home court edge. If Texas A&M is not ready, Cougars cruise past Aggies. Watch Trent Plaisted, he's good.
Pac-10 tourney is hard to watch in early rounds, looks like Atlanta Hawks game with so few people in stands. UCLA is incredibly tough-minded and so is USC for that matter. Stanford is not and really is poor shooting team outside of 12 feet. If they could shoot, they would be cutting down the nets. Washington State fits right into Big Ten and Arizona is more up and down then a ride to Flagstaff on I-17.
Georgia winning the SEC is cute story, but what does that say about the league? Tennessee suddenly couldn't guard a rail, Vandy only wins at home, Mississippi State couldn't beat a tired Bulldog and Arkansas played like they were playing three games in 29.5 hours. Vols style can be tricky for opponent that haven't faced them, otherwise forget it.
Smaller conference impressions: Love Drake, Western Kentucky better than expected and Boise State the same.
Will post interesting NCAA system on Tuesday.
North Carolina played hard when they needed to. This is Final Four material and they should get there, but this team has the defensive attention span of a small child. Virginia Tech schooled them for 32 minutes until they quit dreaming about playing the Dukies again. Speaking of the Coach K's, Sweet 16 at best for this bunch. They have peaked and have almost nothing inside. Players look worn out from long season.
Temple won the A-10, did you realize they were 13-11 a month ago? This team can shoot and will upset Michigan State in opening game, in humble opinion. (Not that humble really) Xavier, just not that that enamored with them.
If Pittsburgh could play like they did for 4 days in the Big Apple, this team would be Elite 8 material. Never like teams that win four in four in NCAA, too much emotion sucked out. G-Town capable, yet something not quite right, no Final Four. One team that looked like a lock for San Antonio even two weeks ago was Louisville; however recent games have me thinking otherwise. The Cardinals play their best when the ball goes through David Padgett. The courageous center appears to be wearing down and his teammates don't have the ball go through him enough on offense. UConn not going anywhere, Notre Dame lacks quickness (thou dangerous shooters), West Virginia could surprise once, Marquette beats Kentucky and could defeat Stanford if bigs hold there own against Stanford twins.
I did manage to get a little shuteye when Big Ten games were on. These games are like global warming, you know something is happening, but you don't need to watch all the time, because it is moving so slowing. If you saw Minnesota make miracle shot against Indiana (very cool), before that it appeared the fix was in as Big Ten officials called two stupid fouls on Golden Gophers in final seconds, which were marginal at best. The impression was they were doing everything to have Hoosiers advance, except they kept missing free throws. Not on conspiracy bandwagon, yet it was tough not to notice. Wisconsin wins a couple, so does Purdue, Indiana is gone quicker then a Kelvin Sampson dropped call. The talent level is terrible in this league, need new coaches with different ideas.
Kansas and Texas played the best game all week in in Big 12 title game. Two great teams, playing flawless offense, this is what James Naismith had in mind.
According to unofficial poll, 90 percent of for pay handicappers had Akron beating Kent State. I sent out email to Left Coast group, Kent State is real deal, they'll win by double digits. At least that was right. Good solid team that beats UNLV and gives Kansas trouble for longer than presumed.
BYU is better then UNLV, just couldn't overcome Rebels home court edge. If Texas A&M is not ready, Cougars cruise past Aggies. Watch Trent Plaisted, he's good.
Pac-10 tourney is hard to watch in early rounds, looks like Atlanta Hawks game with so few people in stands. UCLA is incredibly tough-minded and so is USC for that matter. Stanford is not and really is poor shooting team outside of 12 feet. If they could shoot, they would be cutting down the nets. Washington State fits right into Big Ten and Arizona is more up and down then a ride to Flagstaff on I-17.
Georgia winning the SEC is cute story, but what does that say about the league? Tennessee suddenly couldn't guard a rail, Vandy only wins at home, Mississippi State couldn't beat a tired Bulldog and Arkansas played like they were playing three games in 29.5 hours. Vols style can be tricky for opponent that haven't faced them, otherwise forget it.
Smaller conference impressions: Love Drake, Western Kentucky better than expected and Boise State the same.
Will post interesting NCAA system on Tuesday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
