Saturday Stuff

We’ll take it, officially a 2-0 Friday. We come right back with the Yankees as Top Trend, why you ask, because it is in a never lost situation. We have another consensus play for Free Pick, this time in baseball. The Best System isn’t quite to 80 percent; however it’s all that bad at 77.6%. Good Luck

What I thought today- Consider myself dam lucky to hit all three of my NHL plays last night. I have a math based baseball system and it only gets better the more data I collect as the season rolls along, but for fun, here are the underdogs that work out to be potential plays on my list, Washington, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like Houston, who are poor NL offensive team (4.1 runs or fewer runs a game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA>=5.00), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. This system has done quite well at 38-11, 77.6 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Yankees are 12-0 in home games after allowing one run or less over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC consensus has the Detroit Tigers as best bet with 7-0 side in their favor.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

NBA Eastern Conference Series Outlook

The East looks to be about as exciting as another episode rerun of Law and Order. Everyone is expecting the chalk to play thru to Cleveland and Orlando rematch, with oddsmakers seeing the Cavaliers and Magic switching places. One fun aspect is how angry most of the Eastern Conference teams are. Cleveland’s mad because they feel they should have already won a title. Orlando’s peeved because most experts don’t believe they are good enough to win championship. Atlanta is fuming because of lack of respect and Boston is raging because they believe they are better than they’ve played. Milwaukee’s unhappy about losing Andrew Bogut and Miami’s piqued about talk of one man team. The Bulls are essentially “no comment” on head coach and VP being involved in heated confrontation and Charlotte’s coach Larry Brown is just mad about being Larry Brown. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) Cleveland vs (8) Chicago

At present, there is no denying the Cleveland Cavaliers their due. Cleveland had the best record in the NBA at 61-21, which included tossing away the final four games of the regular season, resting the league’s best player LeBron James. If you discard the non-efforts in April against the other elite teams in the NBA, the Cavaliers were 9-2 and 8-3 ATS against all other clubs seeded one-thru-three. Without question, this is the deepest most complete squad James has had since taking up residence in Cleveland area. The Cavs are fourth in field goal percentage defense and third in field goals made and yes they still will bog down on offense occasionally, but have additional weapons like Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson to compliment other aspects. The Cavaliers are +160 favorites to win it all and should.

Chicago received a dubious prize for making the NBA Playoffs on the last day of the season, but you can’t compete and learn how to get better unless you make it this far and truly determine where you need to improve. The Bulls are really young and can play like a bunch of kids on the playground with the public doubting they can even win a game. Point guard Derrick Rose seems to work well with Kirk Hinrich and as long as the former Kansas product is making jump shots, the duo can give the Cavs problems in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, Chicago has to match physicality, but don’t overdo it, since the Cavaliers have more options. Luol Deng has to be big in this series. Da Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making six or more three-point shot a contest in the second half of the season.

Though Cleveland gave away much of April, the last thing they want is extended series, nonetheless, you can bet coach Mike Anderson would prefer four challenging tilts to toughen up his team, with Cavs the winner each time. Anderson’s group is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds a game on the season.

3DW Pick- Cleveland (-2800) in four over Chicago (+1600)

(2) Orlando vs (7) Charlotte

The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?

Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.

This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.

Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)

(3) Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee

Do you get the feeling the Hawks are turning into the Atlanta Braves of the 1980’s? The Braves had great players like Dale Murphy and Bob Horner but never really accomplished a great deal, not being able to fill the rest of the holes. The Hawks are two years removed from almost upsetting Boston, who would go on to win NBA title. They won 53 games (the most in 12 years) this season yet ask any NBA insider or interested sports bettor if Atlanta is an elite club and a pause will come before a hesitant answer. The Hawks function best on offense when they are like the hamburger chain In-N-Out, dumping the ball into Al Horford and Josh Smith (both with limited offensive maneuvers) and kicking it out to shooters like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Expert the Hawks to want to fly up and down the court, ranked fourth in fast-break points at 16.2 per contest and they begin the series 30-13 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

It’s really a shame Milwaukee lost center Andrew Bogut, though he’s never been a factor against Atlanta, as a very strong case could be made he was the second best center in the Eastern Conference this season until unlucky fall. Though the injury limits aspects of what the Bucks can do, no reason for Milwaukee fans to be crying in their beer. John Salmons was the best pickup any team made before the trade deadline, bringing a scorer’s mentality and ability to get to basket; shooting over five three throws a game. Carlos Delfino and Jerry Stackhouse are excellent shooters when feet are gathered and Luke Ridnour adds a calming effect with his presence. Look for Milwaukee to play plenty of small-ball attempting to get open shots for quicker players or draw fouls for dead ball points.

At the All-Star break Milwaukee was 24-27, going nowhere, but caught fire finishing 22-9 (20-8-3 ATS) and were the only NBA teams with over fifty (51) spread wins this season. Head man Scott Skiles is the classic underdog coach, since that’s what he was as player and if Atlanta comes in over-confident against shortened Bucks bunch, this becomes arresting series.

Pick- Atlanta (-900) in six over Milwaukee (+550)

(4) Boston vs (5) Miami

How the true sports bettor wins is giving up on preconceived notions when the obvious is presented and not just grabbing the latest fad when it comes around. The Boston Celtics have won exactly half of their last 54 games (18-34-2 ATS), after starting 23-5. By now everyone has heard all the excuses as to why, but the facts are this is an average, aging basketball team led by players that can no longer deliver consistently, with a coach whose rah-rah style is no longer as appealing. In sticking with facts, the Celtics are 24-17 at home (12-28-1 ATS) which is five defeats more than the previous two regular seasons combined. Boston has lost seven contests since Feb. 25 by 10 or more points and 10 total overall, which is precisely one more whipping they received in the prior two campaigns totaled together. This club would seem to have more in common with Mary J. Blige than Rhinna.

While Boston has been a loser in seven of last 10 contests, Miami has been hotter the Beyonce, being winners in 12 of last lucky 13 (8-4-1 ATS). The Heat-wave has been a two-pronged factor, a manageable schedule and great defense. Though a few groans have emitted from the Miami locker room about playing at faster pace, coach Erik Spoelstra looks down the bench and doesn’t see production in terms of minutes and points, thus has decided to limit possessions and hope Dwayne Wade can find a way to win. The defense has been suffocating, holding opposing clubs to 88.7 points in this stretch compared to 94.2 on the year.

Miami will be a trendy pick, a hot team facing a cold (you can’t spell cold without o l d) one. Heat backers will dismiss 0-3 record this season against Boston, since they lost by only five, six and seven points. Wade has been like his team’s nickname, heating the C’s for almost 34 points a game and over eight assists. However, Doc Rivers has implemented a plan, let Wade get his and not let anyone else beat us, which is the reason for no other Miami player scoring 20 points vs. Boston this season.

Pick- Boston (-200) in six over Miami (+165)

NBA Western Conference Series Outlook

In order to make the playoffs out West you had to win 50 games, something only four teams from the other conference could to. A number of NBA followers believe the Los Angeles Lakers are quite vulnerable in spite of +175 odds of being repeat champions and several teams played much better basketball to conclude the season, leaving the door ajar to speculation. Someone is still going to have knockoff Kobe and company four times to prove the Lakers are not worthy and outside of Lake-show fans, the detractors feel more than one squad is capable. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City

You would have thought the Clippers were getting the No. 1 seed in the West with all the negative talk about the Lakers. Los Angeles has been getting much the same reception as Whitney Houston’s concert stops, nobody’s impressed. Andrew Bynum is not healthy; Kobe Bryant is showing the affects of compounding injuries and his shooting has been off. Derek Fisher can still make big shots, but is having trouble guarding his own shadow and the trio of Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Pau Gasol are noted “thinkers”, not always bringing A-game when needed and wanted. The Lakers have been uninspired for over a month and are 6-10 ATS and have covered back-to-back spreads once since Feb. 11.

Oklahoma City is everything the Lakers are not, young, eager and lacking playoff experience. Phil Jackson lobbed the first salvo, wondering how the NBA’s youngest scoring champ Kevin Durant gets to the line so frequently, insinuating preferential treatment from the zebras. (This from the same coach whose had Bryant and Michael Jordan during his career, I digress) But Durant took the bait and replied, professionally, yet made it more an issue by commenting. The Thunder are not all about Durant, as Russell Westbrook is among the top six point guards in the league and Thabo Sefolosha is undervalued within coach Scott Brooks schemes.

OKC did lose four of last six to draw the defending champs, however they won 50 games (48-34 ATS) and showed uncommon poise with 23-18 and 26-15 ATS road record. The Lakers won three of four, but in only meeting in 2010, the Thunder struck with 16-point shellacking at home over L.A. If the Lakers continue to play with indifference, this series will have some length to it and Ford Center faithful will be loud and proud for first taste postseason action.

3DW Pick- L.A. Lakers (-800) in six over Oklahoma City (+500)

(2) Dallas vs (7) San Antonio

This marks the fifth time the Mavericks and Spurs will square off in a Texas tussle in the playoffs with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki on opposite benches. Without Bruce Bowen, the animosity has subsided in the last couple of years between these division rivals, but that could heat up again in this series, considering what is at stake.

Dallas had the perfect opportunity to already be a NBA champion in 2006, but gagged a 2-0 lead in the finals against Miami, losing the next four contests. Since that time, owner Mark Cuban has been patient until this season, believing the pieces were in place for title run. This year he jettisoned players he felt were no longer committed to being champions like Josh Howard and retooled roster with the likes of Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood, giving them size and more scoring versatility. Here is what is troubling about the Mavs. Despite winning 55 games and being the second seed, their score differential is only +2.7, the lowest of the Western teams in the playoffs. Dallas is sixth (among West playoff teams) in home court record at 28-13 and they were 30th against the spread at home with 10-29-2 ATS mark.

San Antonio on the other hand manufactured (in the truest since) a 50-win campaign. This is no longer Tim Duncan’s team, his aching knees and aging body are ineffective in back to back games and his post-moves are noticeably slower, not getting off shots like he used to and drawing fouls. That puts the ball in Tony Parker’s hands, but he too has been on the shelf, which led to Manu Ginobili drinking from the fountain of youth and being the leading performer in the second half. The “Spurs way” is next man up and George Hill has been invaluable at guard. In a slower series, this could mean rookie DeJuan Blair could have a bigger impact for San Antonio squad that was 6.3 points better defensively after the All-Star break.

If ever a series had seven games written all over it, this is the one. Let’s go with the upset picking San Antonio, with road team winning four times outright in this physical tight series that marks the end of Mavericks as we know them.

3DW Pick- San Antonio (+135) in seven over Dallas (-165)

(3) Phoenix vs (6) Portland

For the NBA bettor who prefers to play a streak, Phoenix is the perfect team to match the group Power Station’s 1985 hit “Some Like it Hot”. The Suns closed the season 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) and the two defeats were a five point loss at equally hungry Oklahoma City and failing to ignite at Milwaukee on the last night of four road games in five nights. Their last six wins have been pulverizing, winning by 13.8 points a game. Phoenix tried to move Amare Stoudemire before the All-Star game, but couldn’t find the right compensation. This ended up being the reason the Suns had the best record in the NBA at 23-6 (20-8-1) after the break. Stoudemire was the second half MVP and he and Nash resembled Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll whenever they needed points. Phoenix still runs high-octane offense (110.2 PPG) but plays enough defense (11th in field goal percentage) and has solid core of frontcourt role players who do their job expertly.

It’s unfortunate, a visit this past week to Dictionary.com to look up the word “snake-bit” revealed a picture, that of the Portland Trailblazers. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and now Brandon Roy are all lost due to injury. Portland’s one chance is to control the action in the frontcourt and lane area with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they can maintain a steady flow of points near the bucket, that creates space for Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum among others. The Trailblazers do have depth and were 25-14-2 ATS on the road.

With Roy, this could have been one of the most entertaining first round matchups as Portland had taken four out five, however with the way Phoenix is playing and the Blazers without their best player, chances of upset are greatly diminished. One should not expect Portland to roll over like a dog, they can run with the Suns in short stretches and will look to frustrate Nash with ball pressure and control tempo.

Pick- Phoenix (-600) in six over Portland (+400)

(4) Denver vs (5) Utah

It took 82 games to determine who would be the Northwest Division titlist, with Denver backing in on the last day, as Utah lost at home to the Suns. It will take no more than seven games to figure who has the best team and which is good enough to advance to West semis in this rare postseason confrontation. (Last meeting was 16 years ago)

The Nuggets have been meandering without George Karl on the bench, 6-7 (3-9-1 ATS) in last 13 contests. Denver was third in the NBA in scoring at 106.5 points per game, yet has been held to under 100 points in 11 of previous 15 outings. The Nuggets front office came out at the conclusion of the season and complimented interim coach Adrian Dantley for his fine work, but Denver looks soul-less without Karl calling the shots. Denver is 13-3 ATS the last two years in the playoffs and they continue that streak if Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups exhibit leadership and the bench outplays Utah’s.

The Jazz have two components that will seal their fate either way. Andrei Kirilenko missed final nine regular season games with a calf injury and he is the only Utah player on the roster capable of making life difficult for Carmelo. Carlos Boozer’s fascinating array of moves and shots is predicated on health and his ribs are sore, which could cut his effectiveness. That leaves Deron Williams to carry even a greater amount of the load. He has an outstanding command of the Jerry Sloan’s motion offense and the ball distribution means Williams has to set the offense, not be the main scoring threat.

Utah is 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) in Salt Lake City and 23-17-1 ATS on the road, but falling from potential No. 2 seed to No. 5, losing home court advantage will prove to be too much for unhealthy club that is 1-5 and 1-4-1 ATS in Denver.

Pick- Denver (-200) in seven over Utah (+160)

Fire-up Friday

Had to miss yesterday working on the NBA, but have two plays in MLB action that are solid 76.9 percent, but below our standard. The Yankees are in our Top Trend, is it good or bad and the Left Coast Connection has a NHL play. Good Luck

What I thought today- After this week, I should know everything about NHL and NBA playoffs with all the studying I’ve put in. (That doesn’t guaranteed I’ll win money however.)

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, playing on Friday. This system is 30-9 the last four years, which means to play against the Dodgers and Twins.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Yankees are 54-15 after two straight games where they committed no errors.

Free Hockey Pick -3) The LCC consensus has New Jersey bouncing back in Game 2 over Philly nine to zero.

Baseball Series Wagering - Tigers at Mariners

After finishing 4-2 on their first homestand of the season, Detroit returns to the road for their longest trip of the year, playing 11 games in 11 days against three teams from the American League West starting in Seattle. The Tigers (6-3, +1.3 units) have been the comeback kids thus far with five of their wins coming after trailing.

Another comeback story is pitcher Jeremy Bonderman. The right-hander gave up one hit and one run while striking out five in five innings in a 4-2 win over Cleveland last Saturday. That was Bonderman’s first victory in nearly two years, bouncing back from surgery that broke up a blood clot in his throwing shoulder.

“It was fun to just get back on the mound, compete and be who I am and not worry about my arm hurting,” Bonderman said. “It’s been a long journey back, but I’m hoping I got 35 more starts in and hopefully we can do something special.”

The 27-year old is making the change from a hard-thrower to pitcher. “That was really Jeremy Bonderman the pitcher," Leyland said of his first start in 2010, "not Jeremy Bonderman the 95-96-mph fastball, hard slider. He pitched, and that's the adjustment that he's going to have to make. We're tickled to death today. That's progress, and that's something you have to build on."

His mound opponent for first game is 100 percent healthy and one of the best pitchers in baseball, Felix Hernandez. Seattle’s ace right-hander starts the season with 3.29 ERA, but no-decisions, providing two quality starts on the road, both Mariners wins. This makes it Hernandez first time to take the mound at Safeco Field and he and Mariners’ teammates are 27-9 the last two years he’s been the starter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Seattle as -182 money line favorites in the first contest of the series with total Ov7. King Felix is 27-8 when the total is 7 to 8.5 (Mariners Record) and 10-1 OVER as a home favorite of -175 to -200. Detroit is 3-9 in Game 1 of a series dating back to last season and is 7-1 in Bonderman’s previous eight road starts.

Game 1 Edge: Seattle

Seattle (4-6, -2 units) has begun the season very slow with the bats, averaging 2.8 runs per game, with sordid team batting average of .231. They have shown a few signs of starting to work their way out of it with nine or more hits in four of last five games. The Mariners are the only team in baseball that has yet to score more than five runs in single game and they might still be searching facing the Tigers ace Jason Verlander.

The 6’5 right-hander has dialed up the fastball into the upper-90’s, however has ERA of 9.00 because he’s lacked command of secondary pitches to retire hitters thus far. He’s making mistakes that are getting hit or batters are sitting dead-red in their second or third time at bat, not fearing Verlander can throw anything else over the plate. With Seattle still searching at the dish, Detroit’s top pitcher could go to 44-18 (Tigers Record) against losing teams.

Seattle counters with Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Aussie has a sound delivery with a tailing fastball, a big overhand curveball that he likes to use early in counts to go along with first-rate changeup. Rowland-Smith is known for throwing strikes, but is not a strike-out pitcher. If the lefty is taking his turn in the rotation in Game 2, Seattle has four-game winning streak.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

The series finale is a wild card contest, at least as far as the pitching is concerned. The Tigers go with Max Scherzer, who throws 95 MPH fastball and has devastating sweeping slider when he’s on. Has tendency to get lazy with mechanics, which adds up pitch count unnecessarily or has one faulty inning that costs him. One aspect in his favor is Detroit is 36-18 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game coming into the series.

Ian Snell is making his third start of the year and comes in with ERA of 5. Snell would be described as a “slinger” with his three-quarters delivery style and follow thru. His fastball runs and sinks and he possesses a hard slider, but isn’t known as great listener and too easily loses command of the strike zone. Though a very good athlete, at 5’11 lacks the leverage to get extra tilt on his pitches when he tires. Snell is 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in two career starts against the Tigers and Seattle begins the series having won 19 of last 26 at home.

Game 3 Edge: Detroit

The first two games have starting pitchers from each team that can dominate, which sets up a split. The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 is a push, however the Tigers bullpen and offense has been better thus far, making them the series play in the second weekend of baseball action.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Detroit +140 , Seattle -180

3Daily Winners Pick: Detroit

Really, you can bet on the Friars today

It’s the rubber game of the series near the waterfront in downtown San Diego, where the Padres host Atlanta. The Braves bounced back from 17-2 debacle in the first game and handcuffed San Diego 6-1 behind Tommy Hanson and three relievers yesterday.

Atlanta may be only 4-4, however offensively they have been quite patient at the plate, drawing over four walks a game, helping set up of batters to drive in runs. Bobby Cox team hasn’t capitalized as often as they should yet, batting .229 as a group.

The Braves are -124 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com with Tim Hudson back in the rotation. The 34-year right-hander had Tommy John surgery a season ago and made six appearances at the end of last year. In his first effort of the new campaign, Hudson gave two runs and three hits in seven innings against San Francisco last Friday, in which his team eventually lost 5-4 in extra innings.

Hudson will be challenged by Mat Latos of San Diego. Latos is considered the crown jewel of the new Padres organization at 22 and throws in the mid-90’s, along with having a good slider and big breaking curveball. Like many young pitchers, command is an issue and he conceded three home runs in six innings at Colorado, yet he limited the damage to just four runs by not walking any Rockies hitters and his team ended up winning 5-4.

San Diego is picked again to finish last in the NL West, having limited talent in the field except at first base with Adrian Gonzalez, nonetheless draws a favorable position as an underdog in today’s super situation.

Play Against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150, when their team's hitters draw four walks or more a game on the season, against opposing starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter in his last outing.

The last three years this system has been spellbinding at 24-4, 85.7 percent.

Other factors to consider for the 6:35 Eastern matchup are Atlanta is 2-6 in Hudson’s most recent starts and the Bravos are 1-7 when the former Oakland hurler is a -140 or less favorite.
San Diego is a resilient bunch, 16-5 off a loss and 6-1 after a scoring two runs or less in previous contest.

With Latos sporting a 1.29 ERA in two appearances totaling 14 innings against Atlanta, he has the “stuff” to limit Braves hitters and who knows, the road club might be thinking ahead on getaway day looking forward to getting home with bigger series against Colorado and Philadelphia.

NBA PLAYOFF PRIMER - Opening Round Betting Strategies

It’s never too early or late to prepare for the playoffs. Like preparing for a marathon, it’s best to put ourselves into the best possible condition we can as we make a season ending dash for the cash.

With help from our trusted database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say…

NO. 8 SEEDS ARE BEHIND THE 8-BALL

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost nearly 75% of time (33-95 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks and the 2007 Golden State Warriors were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

Worse, they are 6-29 SU and 10-22-3 ATS in the post-season with a losing record in opening round games, including 3-11-1 ATS when taking double digits.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 2-22 SU and 6-18 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of more than five points in their last game.

UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 46-28-2 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 34-19-2 ATS, including 24-10-1 ATS if off a loss of 5 or more points – and 15-3-2 ATS when laying five or more points in this role.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

DOUBLE DIGIT DOGMA

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 25-14-1 ATS in this role, including 21-9-1 ATS if they took 8 or more points the previous game.

These same guys are also 17-6 ATS off a playoff loss when taking double digits from a non-division foe, including 15-3 ATS against sub .795 opponents.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 4-25 SU and 6-23 ATS away from home. They are also 13-31-2 ATS as dogs on their way to the canvas.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS. Last year Detroit was counted out at Cleveland, as well as New Orleans at Denver.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2010 NBA playoffs. I’ll be back soon with additional insight on Round Two.

By Marc Lawrence • PLAYBOOK.com

Wednesday's Top Info

Picked ourselves up and nailed a 2-1 Tuesday and have a totals system in MLB tonight that is over 80 percent. The White Sox were almost no-hit last night, check out the Top Trend and see how they might respond. Today’s top Free Play is in the rink. Good Luck

What I thought today- Though not a hot sport, the NHL Playoffs are awesome entertainment. I’ve dabbled in hockey for years, mostly with mediocre results, however I’m going to take some of my CBB winnings and set up a playoff budget and see how I do, kind of a challenge of sorts.

In case you missed it, the owner of Eye on Gambling website and the person who started the RX.com has died. Lots of things surrounding his death, including the reports of murder/suicide with his wife. Though an infrequent reader of his site, I know he was well respected in his area of expertise. Sad story.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Over when the total is 8 to 8.5 with poor NL offensive team (Astros) scoring 4.1 or less RPG, against a team (Cards) with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season. In the last four years this system is 34-8, 81 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago White Sox are 11-2 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base.

Free Hockey Pick -3) Michael of the LCC has started the week 6-0 and likes San Jose in the opener.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

NHL Playoff Preview – Western Conference

The best part of the NHL season has arrived, the Stanley Cup chase. Eight teams from each conference all believing they are the team of destiny. The opening round is often treacherous territory as 12 lower seeds have won the last four years and three other went to a game seven, as the higher seed used its home ice edge to conquer opponent. Goaltending is such a huge part of the Stanley Cup dynamic and five of the seven regular starting netminders in the Western Conference have no previous postseason experience, which will just add to the craziness. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(1) San Jose vs (8) Colorado

The West has five legitimate teams capable skill-wise of making the Stanley Cup Finals and the top one at least from talent standpoint is San Jose. The Sharks have five 20-goal scorers, but are more thought of as lion from the Wizard of Oz, lacking courage at crunch time. Among the reasons is San Jose’s inability to outwork the opposition in April and May (let alone June) as past playoffs have shown and though Evgeni Nabokov is among the Top 10 goalies in the game, he is 32-31 in the postseason and did nothing to enhance is status with disappointing Olympic performance.

Youth was served in Colorado this season as remade roster was coached by first year coach Joe Sacco. The grind of a long season appeared to wear down the young Avs players, losing 10 of final 13 contests. Their top point producers were mostly first year players like Matt Duchene. Goalie Craig Anderson was 10-4 SU in October, but he too saw his play slip, after facing the most shots of any netminder in the NHL.

San Jose is the third choice to be Stanley Cup champions at +390 and have to take advantage of Colorado’s penalty-killing that has surrendered 15 goals in previous 14 games. San Jose is 5-1 on home ice against the Avalanche and 8-4 in the last three years. If the Sharks are truly hungry as they claim, they dominate Avs at home and at worst split in the Rockies.

3DW Pick- San Jose (-400) in five over Colorado (+330)

(2) Chicago vs (7) Nashville

The Blackhawks are actually the top betting choice to be in Cup Finals; however they will have to navigate a potentially treacherous opponent in Nashville. This will be the last series to commence, starting on Friday and the Predators have blue-line talent like Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. They also have netminder who can turn into stone wall in Pekka Rinne, whose had personal win streaks of four or more games three times to go along with seven shutouts. Nashville is offensively challenged but coach Barry Trotz rings out every bit of talent out of this frugal franchise.

Chicago has splendid offensive players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith and is stellar as possessing the puck to keep the pressure on opposing defenses. The Blackhawks will look to keep this advantage and force Nashville mistakes, which could prove fatal with the Preds 28th in penalty kills. Chicago’s question mark is between the pipes with Finnish rookie Antti Niemi. The 26-year old has been the nearly impregnable, handing out seven zeroes in only 38 starts and is riding six-game winning streak. How long can it last?

Chicago won four of six, but these Central Division rivals couldn’t be any less familiar with one another, having not met in 2010. These teams only averaged 4.5 goals a game in their meetings, thus the Under and Chicago looks like the best bet.

3DW Pick- Chicago (-410) in five over Nashville (+340)

(3) Vancouver vs (6) Los Angeles

Unlike the 4 vs.5 matchup, Vancouver and Los Angeles will play in the same time zone for the duration of their series, playing every other day. The Canucks organization (to sound Canadien, pronounce it organ-EYE-zation) thinks of itself more than just a fringe player out West. They see themselves as real contenders with NHL's point’s leader Henrik Sedin leading a deep, balanced offense that can apply continual pressure. In net, Robert Luongo is regarded as one of the best keepers in the game, but can melt down like an ice cream cone on a warm summer’s day, leaving a mess. The Canucks were 30-11 on home ice, but face an under the radar Kings club that could be troublesome.

Though Los Angeles is a sixth seed compared Vancouver at No. 3, they only finished two points behind the Canucks in final standings and reached the 100-point total for the first time in 19 long years. The Kings have quality youngsters like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty and have no real expectations, thus can perform pressure-free compared to Vancouver. The Kings stay in the post-season will correspond with the play of goalie Jonathan Quick. The 24-year old was having brilliant campaign, but lost his final eight starts.

L.A. was 24-17 SU on the road, but lost both contests at Vancouver scoring a total of two goals. They will need Quick to be extra quick and score early to make Canucks breathe with greater uncertainty. This could go the distance with upset potential.

3DW Pick- Vancouver (-240) in seven over Los Angeles (+200)

(4) Phoenix vs (5) Detroit

Without a doubt the most compelling first round matchup of all. Phoenix was the most engaging story in hockey all year. A franchise owned by the league trying to find an owner to keep it in the desert, bringing in a coach just days before the start of the regular season, yet miraculously the Coyotes ended up with the 50 wins (fourth best) and are in the playoffs for the first time in eight years. Coach Dave Babcock is a back of the net choice for coach of the year and netminder Ilya Bryzgalov is a legitimate candidate for the Hart (best player) and Vezina (top goalie) trophies this year. Phoenix is the only higher seed not to be favored in a series and realistically for good reason.

It was not that long along Detroit was fighting just to earn the final spot in the West to make the postseason. However, the Red Wings got healthier week by week after the Olympic break and are on serious roll at 17-3-2. They Red Wings have the players known for high-level performances this time of year. Detroit will look to play keep away with the puck to slow down defensive-minded Phoenix and don’t have to fear the ‘Yotes prowess in shootouts (14 of the Coyotes wins came by this method) since regular overtime will decide winners.

These teams split four conflicts and if Phoenix wants to go beyond Cinderella fairy-tale dressed up as dogs, no better team to prove it against. Red Wings rookie goaltender Jimmy Howard has NO experience this time of the year; however Bryzgalov has just 16 playoff games under his sweater. Coyotes have to stay out of the penalty box and play their game to continue dream season.

3DW Pick- Detroit (-185) in six over Phoenix (+165)

NHL Playoff Preview – Eastern Conference

Normally, there would be a great deal of clamor about a young, though veteran squad that was seeking a second straight Stanley Cup and third consecutive appearance in the finals. However, all is quiet about Pittsburgh on the Eastern Conference front with the season Washington had. The Capitals are the most dominating offensive team in hockey, as they scored 96 more goals than No. 2 seed New Jersey (allowed 42 more) and the second best scoring team was Vancouver, who was a distant 46 goals behind. If defense wins championships, then Washington is the wrong choice in a conference with only three teams with legit chance to play for Stanley Cup. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(1) Washington vs (8) Montreal

How good has Washington been? The Caps are first team in four years to ring up 300 or more goals and have seven snipers that but the puck over the line 20 or more times. Alex Ovechkin is arguably the most dominating offensive player in the game and Mike Green led all NHL defenseman in points. Washington was 30-11 at home, but six of those losses came in overtime. Rejuvenated Jose Theodore has been nearly unbeatable for three months, as his only three losses in 23 starts have come after three periods of play (20-0-3).

Sure Montreal comes in as the eighth seed, performing worse than Kate Gosselin on DWTS with three wins in last 11 outings, but those sweaters are still Le Bleu-Blanc-et-Rouge. The Canadiens might have an edge in speed in their offensive end, but they look like pip-squeaks compared the Washington blue-liners. That would leave Jaroslav Halak to have to stand on his head in net against Capitals onslaught.

These teams split four games, each winning on the other’s frozen pond, but Washington is the top overall choice to win the Cup at +275 and should sweep if focused and win in five if not, being better in all areas against Les Habitants.

3DW Pick- Washington (-565) in four over Montreal (+465)

(2) New Jersey vs (7) Philadelphia

Typically, the second seed would be thrilled their first round opponent had to fight until the 82nd game to make the postseason tournament, however that is not the case with New Jersey. The Devils had a devil of a time, losing five of six times to Philadelphia. New Jersey plays defensive-style, conceding the fewest goals at 2.3 per contest with the remarkable Martin Broduer in front of the cage. Offensively, the Devils are not imposing beyond Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk and they enter the playoffs 22-8 having won three of previous four.

The Flyers are better than what they showed losing eight of 12 (they did win three of final four to sneak in) to gain entry into the playoffs. Philadelphia has components that could lead to upset. Philly is ranked third in the league in power play conversion at 21.5 percent and a respectable 11th on penalty kills. It’s not a coincidence the ’06 Edmonton squad and ’07 Anaheim club were in the finals with Chris Pronger manning the blue line, as he always elevates his play in the postseason. The wild card is third string goalie Brian Boucher, whose been forced to play with others injured. He helped the Flyers make the playoffs, can he lead the upset?

If Philadelphia can light the lamp on man-advantages and curtail New Jersey’s chances, an upset is in the making.

3DW Pick- Philadelphia (+195) in seven over New Jersey (-235)

(3) Buffalo vs (6) Boston

Two teams from the old Adams Division (circa 1974-93) will chase the puck in the third of three first round division matchups. Both Buffalo and Boston had surprising seasons, the Sabres for winning the division with relative ease and the Bruins for scuffling just to make the playoffs after having the most points in the East last season. Watch the total in Buffalo, as these clubs are 8-1 UNDER.

The series is about finding bodies that can produce on the ice. Buffalo has players at less than 100 percent like Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht and Drew Stafford, which means goalie extraordinaire Ryan Miller will play a key role in Buffalo advancement. If Miller can almost singlehandedly take the USA to Olympic gold, he can certainly contain Boston’s feeble attack. The Sabres split four contests with division partner.

Boston has a number of players out and it’s hard to comprehend a team could be in playoffs after finishing 30th in goals scored, nonetheless, here the Bruins are. Boston suffered a 10-game losing streak from the middle of January into February. They had a stretch of scoring more than three goals once in 19 contests, yet managed to win six of last nine games (all losses by one goal). Coach Claude Julien had to do the unthinkable, turn his team’s fortunes over to 22-year-old Tuukka Rask between the pipes. Though Rask was named starter just 39 times, he led the NHL in both goals-against average and save percentage.

3DW Pick- Boston (+145) in six over Buffalo (-165)

(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Ottawa

Whether it’s an 8 vs. 9 in the NCAA basketball tournament or 4 vs. 5 in the NBA or hockey playoffs, the presumption is a tight game or series is the forecast. This however is not the case in this Eastern confrontation. The talented Penguins waddled thru the regular season and flip the switch in mid-April. After losing to Detroit in 2008 Finals, Pittsburgh was less than inspired the next season finishing fourth, the very same position they are in presently, on the way to being champions.

Pittsburgh has Sid Crosby and the defending NHL scoring champ Evgeni Malkin, who was hampered by injuries most of the season. He played in 66 games, but was a factor in maybe half and had an off year. Though Pitt’s often dynamic duo will receive light criticism for indifference during the regular season, no player is more emblematic of his team than enigmatic Marc-Andre Fleury. He’s a latter day Grant Fuhr of the Edmonton glory days with Wayne Gretzky and the gang.

Ottawa is more unstable than some of the people that sit with Dr. Phil. The Senators had 11-game winning streak right before Valentine’s Day and a six-game stretch without a defeat afterwards. Throw those in the blender with a four and two 5-game losing streaks and it’s easy to decipher Ottawa as having multiple personalities for extended periods. A bit of research dug up these facts about the Senators that are very telling about their mental makeup. Ottawa is 21-4 SU when leading after first 20 minutes and is 4-24 SU when trailing.

3DW Pick- Pittsburgh (-275) in five over Ottawa (+235)

Last day of NBA regular season stuffed with intrigue

It’s the final day of the NBA regular season and rarely have so many questions been left up in the air to be determined. The specific fate of no less than nine teams has to be figured out before the playoffs begin, with eight of them moving on. Here is one-by-one game outlook at the various possibilities sports bettors have to consider.

New York at Toronto 8:00E MSG

Toronto ( 39-42) came with clutch effort at Detroit and needs to defeat New York at home and hope Chicago fails on the road to ensure third invitation to the playoffs in four years. The Raptors are fighting for bid without its best player Chris Bosh and are eight-point favorites according to DiamondSportsbook.com. Though Toronto needs the win, they are far from a safe bet with 4-12 ATS record at home in the second half of the season.

Chicago at Charlotte 8:00E

While V.P. of basketball operations John Paxson and coach Vinny Del Negro decide whether to use eight ounce or 16 ounce gloves in their rematch, the Chicago Bulls players have to win to get in the Eastern Conference postseason party. Bulls’ players have battled like Chicago management, winning nine of last 14 to be in this position and can close the deal with a victory. The Bulls (40-41) are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team like Charlotte (win percentage of 51% to 60%) this season. The Bobcats are already locked in to playing Orlando starting this weekend, but coach Larry Brown has vowed not to sit players because it wouldn’t be right and what the much-traveled Mr. Brown says can always be trusted (?).

Milwaukee at Boston 8:00E

The Bucks have found out about life without center Andrew Bogut the last two games and it is not pretty. Milwaukee has been easily defeated by Atlanta and Boston on their home floor and it doesn’t appear to be a coincidence the Bucks have shot under 40 percent in three of five games since the Aussie went on the injured list. Milwaukee can move up to fifth position with win over Celtics and Miami loss, but that would mean four more games with Boston. For tonight, the Bucks are 19-7 following a SU loss and are one-point underdogs.

New Jersey at Miami 8:00E YES

The Heat have been en fuego, winners of 11 of last 12 (7-4-1 ATS) and can wrap the No. 5 slot in the East with a triumph over non-combative New Jersey. Miami has made their own way since on March 1 they were in ninth place in the East, but 17-4 record has them poised to face bumbling Boston this upcoming weekend with a win, for club brimming with confidence. Miami is favored by 10 and is 8-2 ATS against opponent that surrendered 100 or more points in previous outing.

San Antonio at Dallas 8:00E

The Mavericks have won the Southwest Division and have one more bit of business left to complete. If Dallas is victorious over San Antonio, they capture the second seed in the West. A loss and Utah win drops them to third, which doesn’t sound like much, unless they would have to face the Jazz later in the playoffs. A Spurs loss would have them settle into seventh slot, which would place them right back in Dallas this weekend for first round of the postseason. The Spurs can avoid such a matchup with win and Portland loss, moving them to No. 6. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in last 14 outings and are 7.5-point underdogs.

Phoenix at Utah 10:30E ESPN

This is the lone straight forward conflict that will have both teams deciding fate in head to head battle. This contest is particularly important to Utah, since a victory means they win Northwest Division title, have third seed (at least) and open up at EnergySolutions Arena, where they are 32-8 and 26-12-2 ATS and domineering 20-2 (14-6-2 ATS) since Jan.6. A loss gives idle Denver the division crown and the Jazz fall to fifth place in the conference, which eliminates home court advantage. The Suns are blazing on 12-2 run (9-4-1 ATS) and locked up home court for first round with demolition of Denver last night. A win gives them third overall and means they wouldn’t face the Lakers until the conference finals should both teams advance that far. Almost forgot, a Utah win and Dallas loss has the Jazz really ending on a high note, moving to second seed with tiebreaker in their favor.

Golden State at Portland 10:30E

The Trail Blazers control their fate with a win over Golden State, wrapping up the sixth seed. That would be terrific, but Portland has potentially more pressing problems with guard Brandon Roy suffering torn meniscus in his knee, making his availability an issue going forward. Portland is a nine-point favorite with total of 215. The higher total should work to Blazers advantage as they are 17-6 ATS when they score 105 or more points this season. An upset loss to the Warriors and Spurs win drops Portland down a notch to seventh.

Tuesday Gold (We hope)

Got the old-fashion split yesterday with 1-1 mark. Look for improvement starting with NBA system that is dandy 85.2 percent. Big game in the NBA on TNT late and one team could have decided edge based on Top Trend. Our Free MLB action lost yesterday, but Ken feels strong about tonight’s AL play. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- I was having terrible year in the NBA, got back to within one game of .500 record-wise and got sloppy this past week. Have to refocus and prepare for the playoffs to get some if not all of this money back.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Even though I think the line is a little high, Play Against home underdogs like Golden State revenging a blowout loss vs. opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by three points or less. A 23-4 ATS record seems to be the correct size.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Phoenix is 17-4 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 99 or more points a game in the second half of the season. (see article below for more details)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kenny of the Left Coast Connection is 9-2 in MLB the last four days and will look for straight A’s from Oakland once again.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Betting Baseball in April – Punch Pedal or Tread Lightly?

This is a great question that applies to any sport that has wagering options on a daily basis. What separates baseball from the rest is teams play essentially every single day, not three or four times a week like in the NBA or NHL and most college basketball teams are hitting the court twice a week at best unless they are in a preseason tournament in a far away destination.

The month of April in the Major Leagues is very much like a golf tournament. In golf, not very often does the first round leader end up winning the tour event after four days. This same logic is also true in baseball with many pretenders that are not contenders later in the season.

Need proof read on:

April 30, 2009 standings –Division leaders
Boston –Kansas City – Seattle- Florida- St. Louis – L.A. Dodgers

Two teams won their divisions, three made the playoffs.

April 30, 2008 standings –Division leaders
Boston –White Sox- L.A. Angels-Florida-Cubs- Arizona

Three teams won their divisions, four made the playoffs.

April 30, 2007 standings –Division leaders
Boston-Cleveland- L.A. Angels-Atlanta- Milwaukee-Arizona

All the American League teams won their divisions as did the Diamondbacks.

April 30, 2006 standings –Division leaders
Yankees-White Sox-Texas-Mets- Cincinnati- Colorado

Two teams won their division and no other clubs made the postseason.

So what is the best way to bet baseball to start the season, here are the pros and cons for each method.

Running hard – Preparation is really the key. If a sports bettor has done his homework, no reason not to jump into the deep end. Knowing what off-season moves teams have made to improve weaknesses in the lineup or the starting pitching should allow any sage baseball bettor to get off to fast start.

Often team that closed the previous season well is an early precursor as to what they might do early in a new season. The Kansas City Royals were 20 games below .500 on Sept. 1 2008 and finished the year 18-8. They carried this momentum into the next season by being in first place in the Central Division and though they would finish 65-97, they picked up +2.10 units the first month of the year.

Slow and easy-Does preparation help you when the Los Angeles Dodgers start the season with suspect pitching staff and they run out to 15-8 record? What about the defending American League champion Tampa Bay, the best young team in baseball right, occupying the AL East basement at the end of April last season at 9-14!

Much like the standings, many things will change from May 1 to August 31 giving every baseball bettor time to get a feel and ease into the season. A formidable pitching staff or lineup gets off to slow start and let’s be honest, preconceived notions are often hard to let go of. Believing in a team that SHOULD be good and is underachieving will drain a wagering account faster than printer ink cartridge.

Running hard – Great logic if you are afraid of your own shadow. The argument of letting things settle in holds no water. If a real sports bettor is interested in winning, you begin at the start. Sure a slow start is possible, but like the previous point, you have four months before football season to make it up. Ever heard of hot streak? And what happens if you catch fire from the start and go up 15 to 20 units, you could be strictly average the rest of the season and still take home the money you made in April.

Slow and easy- Not exactly sound reasoning for those that understand baseball is truly a betting marathon. The psychology of most sports bettors is to press once behind. This can lead to irresponsible wagers, taking chances when not necessary, which could lead to further depletion of bankroll or having to cough up more money in say May or June with more than half the season to go, which erodes confidence.

That other aspect of burning money early is limited bankroll. Say you start with $1,000.00 and you hit bad stretch early, using up half of your dough. You still want to bet all season, so instead you start making smaller bets. All of the sudden you begin winning, yet are gun-shy and keep wagering lesser amounts, grinding away. You finally get your record back to .500, yet are down say $150 because of cautious approach. Do you return to original betting amounts from the first month of season or keep going with what has been working?

A more conservative method takes the guess work out when you are more in tune with all 30 teams.

Running hard –Negative thinking produces negative results. Did Bill Gates, Steven Jobs or Warren Buffet make their billions by not taking a chance or risk on opportunity?
If you don’t know what you are doing you deserve to lose. The old school way of betting baseball was to find underdogs that can win and playing favorites no larger than -150 on the money line. That’s fine if you want to use coupons to go out to eat, but the preference here is steak and lobster whenever the mood strikes.

The idea is to uncover winners wherever they are. Above -170 favorites that lose means you have to hit two winners basically to squeak out a profit; however you can still fire on those in the first month if you follow simple rules. Have the starting pitcher edge, the bullpen is in order, with pre-assigned roles from the beginning of the year (not assembling pen on the run) and lineup of hitters that hit home runs with quality on-base percentage.

Nobody likes to lose, thus playing underdogs continually might show profits from time to time, but who likes to win less than 50 percent of the time? If you are wagering nickels and dimes, that makes sense because the dollars add up quicker.

And don’t forget those cold-weather totals, lots of cash to be made on Under’s if you know upcoming weather reports in advance of released numbers.

Slow and easy- Betting favorites over -150 is foolish in April. In today’s game, 80 percent of teams only believe they have their bullpens set from the middle innings to closer. If you watch most teams, they are searching to find right combinations and might need a month or more to figure out a plan of attack. Already this season a number of teams (like Kansas City) have carried leads into the eighth inning and lost.

Knowing a team has a bad bullpen can allow you to take more chances later in the year on underdogs and favorites.

This same variable applies to totals. A 3-2 game with a listed total of 8.5 can blow up in the later innings when one pen has too many weak pitchers to contain opposition, sending the number well above the total.

The best method to bet baseball is the one the works best for you. Make certain you have all the tools necessary (like the FoxSheets) at your disposal that provides you the best chance to profit.

Nuggets and Suns in heated encounter

Two days. That’s all that remains in the NBA season, yet the Western Conference war of attrition continues. As of this moment, four things are for certain, the Lakers are the top seed, Dallas is the Southwest Division champs, the eight teams have been determined and the rest is like Sonic’s drive-up menu, a lot of options.

Two teams out west will help solve or further make a mess of the situation, as Denver visits downtown Phoenix (The Purple Palace or Planet Orange depending on the local sportscaster). The Nuggets (53-28, 35-41-5 ATS) conclude their regular season tonight and can be Northwest Division champions with a win and Utah losing one of their final two games.

Denver mauled Memphis 123-101 last night as 11-point favorites and is 25-11 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite. They will have to complete an about face tonight, because just about a block away from Alice Cooper’s restaurant (he of "Welcome to my nightmare" album) has been the desert of doom for the Nuggets. The last time Denver left Phoenix victorious was Apr. 7, 2004, 10 games ago (2-8 ATS). “I thought I won one there recently,” Carmelo Anthony said Monday. “We’ll get one tomorrow, hopefully.”

The Suns (52-28, 45-33-2 ATS) are forcing opposing teams to wear SPF30 just to play them, having won 12 of 14 (9-4-1 ATS), presently tied with Utah and having the same number of defeats as Denver.

Phoenix is in the ideal situation however, able to control their destiny. A win tonight and at Utah tomorrow moves the Suns from fifth spot and having to open up on the playoff road, up to No. 3 and the first two tilts on home court where they are 31-9 and 23-15-2 ATS. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are rested thanks to schedule-maker and they are 12-3 ATS when playing four or less games in 10 days this season.

Bookmaker.com has the Suns as 5.5-point home faves with total of 216.5 and they are 21-9-1 ATS in last 31 tries and 12-3 UNDER on own floor versus offensive teams scoring 103 or more points game over the last two seasons.

Denver’s stakes are equally as high and they are 13-5 ATS after two games as a home favorite and are 17-6 UNDER in road contests off a Pepsi Center win by 10 points or more.

This is second game on TNT that has 7:30 Pacific start time, which will help sort out the West Conference congestion.

Monday April 12, 2010

Slipped a little on Saturday with 1-2 day and come back with a perfect trend involving an NBA game with two hot clubs. Kyle of the LCC was 15-8, +9.2 units in MLB action last week and gives his Top Play for Monday. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Absolutely awesome to see Phil Mickelson win The Masters.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See variety of system listed below.

Free Basketball Trend -2) This is an intriguing angle –Orlando is 11-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kyle goes after baseball with diligence right from opening day and likes Atlanta to ruin San Diego’s home opener.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

MLB Home Openers at eight Ball Parks

The Major League Baseball season may be a week old, but for several teams the joy of playing before the home fans begins today. Whether the results have been fruitful (Philadelphia 5-1) or less than desirable (Seattle 2-5), for the home town fans, all is forgiven because the boys of summer are back.

Target Field - 4:10E ESPN

The most anticipated home opener is in Minnesota, where the Twins return to the great outdoors after 28 seasons in the Metrodome. The Twins enjoyed as good as home field advantage as any team in baseball, with its speedy carpet and intimidating sound when the joint was two-thirds full or more.

Part of Minnesota’s edge was opposing teams had no use for the place. “I hated that dome,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said, whose team will be the first opponent in the new park, adding: “You couldn’t see the ball when it went up. You had those speakers hanging off the thing. I felt like I was in an office building.”

Minnesota won five of their first seven games on the road, thanks to outstanding pitching that has allowed just three runs per game. Carl Pavano makes his second start of the year, being a +140 underdog according to Sportsbook.com to Jon Lester and the Red Sox. Pavano is 11-4 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons (Team's Record), while Lester and Boston is 60-25 on grass fields.

One difficulty the Red Sox have endured is 3-14 record in road games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

Wrigley Field – 2:20E WGN

Baseball returns to the North Side of Chicago at the Friendly Confines for a 95th season. The Cubs are 2-4 to begin 2010 with offense lacking punch and bullpen more giving than a philanthropist. Chicago is batting Mendoza-like .197 as a team and all four losses have come after leading in the game, the last three given away by the bullpen.

Ryan Dempster is a noted fast starter, as he and Cubs teammates are 14-2 at home in the first half of the season the last two years. Chicago is a -155 money line choice and is National League best 145-97 at home since 2007. The Cubs will try to get into Milwaukee’s bullpen, which blew two saves over the weekend to St. Louis, at least coming back to win yesterday 8-7. The Brewers are 4-15 after a blown blew a save since last year.

Citizens Bank Park -3:05E MASN

The Phillies look every bit as good as the team that has made consecutive World Series appearances, winning it all in 2008, with 5-1 start. They open up before their adoring fans as a decisive -275 money line favorite against everyone’s punching bag Washington. Cole Hamels will get the start against the free-swinging Nationals and the Phils are 51-26 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a contest.

Maybe this won’t be as easy as it appears for Philadelphia as Washington is still .500 this late in the season (good for them) and Hamels and the Phillies are 1-8 in days games dating back to the start of last year. With the total at Un.9.5, the defending National League champs are 15-3 UNDER at home vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs a game.

Progressive Field 3:05E

Cleveland started just about as expected with 2-4 record on the road and seeks better results against a Texas team that has been a nemesis. The Indians lost eight of nine to the Rangers in 2009 and hope Fausto Carmona can provide another early season victory. Cleveland blew a five run lead in losing to Detroit yesterday 9-8 and is 10-24 after scoring eight runs or more. The Tribe is +110 underdog in their home opener.

Busch Stadium -4:15E

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing real offensive firepower the first week of the new campaign, scoring 6.2 runs per game on the way to 4-2 record. They will finally get to show the home folks just how explosive they are against a Houston club the has not scratched in the win column in 2010 and is off to their worst start in 27 years at 0-6.

The middle of the line-up has been especially potent with Albert Pujols batting .375 with four home runs and 10 RBIs and Matt Holiday hitting .423 with three home runs and six RBIs. If Adam Wainwright continues to pitch like he has since last year, the -230 ML is well justified for Cards team that is 20-3 a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last two seasons.

PETCO Park – 6:35E Sports South

A home opener means different things to different players. The Padres Kevin Correia grew up in San Diego and used to attend games at Qualcomm Stadium as a kid. In 2008 he signed a minor league contract with San Diego after five years in the San Francisco organization and is on the big club, making the start today in the team’s initial home game of the season.

“It’s exciting to be able to pitch at home and have it be opening day,” Correia told the Padres’ official Web site. “It’s going to be something to look back on and remember.” The Friars are +145 home dogs to Atlanta; however Correia and Pads are 13-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss since he became starting pitcher.

Safeco Field – 6:40E

This year is supposed to be different for Seattle, a contender in the AL West, but a 2-5 start has them tied for last in the division and they take on Oakland in their first homestand of the season, the surprising leader out West. The offense was the deepest concern coming into 2010 and those beliefs have founded to be true, batting .230 as a team with .303 on-base percentage and totaling three runs a game. Having lost the last three of four games in series to the A’s, the Mariners are 12-3 in the Great Northwest with double revenge on their minds and are a -120 betting choice.

Rogers Centre – 7:20E RSN

Expectations are very low for the Blue Jays this upcoming season, but at least for the moment those thoughts have given way to optimism with Toronto of to flying 5-1 start. With a rejuvenated pitching staff that was ravaged by injures a year ago, Toronto has permitted 18 runs in first six outings. Brian Tallet will take a second turn this season for Blue Jays squad that is 20-10 in April since 2009 and face Chicago team that is 0-10 in Canada. The White Sox will start Jake Peavy and are -125 ML faves against Toronto team that have won last hour home openers.

NBA Monday means all systems ready to fire

It’s the final three days of the regular season in the NBA, which also means it is the last Monday of taking a look at some of the best systems in professional basketball to get the week started. In this last installment, we find five contests that could provide winning systems for the sports bettor to profit from to begin another work week. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Miami (-4, 193) at Philadelphia

It’s been a miserable year for the 76ers at 27-53 and they’ve been one of the worst home teams in the league at 12-28 and 11-27-2 ATS. Philadelphia is coming off one of its finest offensive performances of the season, scoring 120 points in rout of Memphis, shooting 57 percent from the field. When there is a contest involving two average three point shooting teams (33-36.5 percent) after 42 or games in the season and the home team made 55 percent or more of their shots with the total between 190 and 199.5 points, the UNDER is 33-11.

Orlando (-3.5, 210) at Indiana

There could well be hope next season for the Pacers if the close of this year is any indication of what the future holds. Indiana has won four in a row and 10 of 12 (8-3-1 ATS), shooting the ball with great proficiency at over 47 percent in eight of those games. The Pacers could be a play again since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, in a matchup involving two defensive teams holding opponents to 43.5 to 45.5 shooting percentage, who commit 14.5 or less turnovers, facing a poor pressure defense (14.5 or fewer turnovers forced), after 42 or more games, they are 40-13 ATS, 75.5 percent the last 14 seasons.

Minnesota (+14, 205.5) at San Antonio

The Spurs have endured a ruthless April schedule, with this being their seventh contest is 11 days and fifth in the last week. San Antonio has made the playoffs with their 49-31 record and would like to get out of eighth slot in the Western Conference; however the Timberwolves might not bring out the best of what the Spurs have to offer. Look to wager against home favorites with win percentage between 60-75 percent playing their fifth game in seven days, facing a team with a losing record. In the previous three seasons, the home chalk is prosaic 5-22 ATS.

Houston (+2.5, 210) at Sacramento

The Kings have lost 14 of the last 18 encounters, which includes 126-108 beat-down by Dallas on Saturday night. When the line is +3 to -3 in April matchups and the home team is off one or more defeats, they are unsightly 41-75 ATS.

Dallas (-11, 198) at L.A. Clippers

It’s been another fruitless campaign for the Clippers with 28-52 record. They are 28th in the NBA in point differential (-6.4), but at least are off a 107-104 triumph over equally inept Golden State. Here we find it is best to play against home teams being outscored by their opponents by six or more points a game, after a close win by three digits or less. Since 1996, this system is tasty 58-20 ATS.

Playoff battles continue in the NBA

There are two games on ABC and one of them doesn’t mean much. That means we’ll pass on the Orlando and Cleveland contest and instead focus on Chicago and Toronto, who are battling for the right to have their season officially ended by the Cavaliers at a later date. The second half of the twin-bill on the American Broadcast Company network has a great deal of meaning to one team, with the other having at least a passing interest for a number of reasons.

Portland at L.A. Lakers 3:30E ABC

The Trailblazers (48-31, 43-34-2 ATS) would prefer to stay away from a rematch against Los Angeles next weekend, finishing either sixth or seventh in the Western Conference and a victory at the Staples Center would go a long way in making that happen.

Portland has been one of the best road teams all season with 23-17 record and 24-14-2 spread mark. The Blazers have chosen the approach of only doing what they can to improve position and let the rest take care of itself.

"But we're not going to worry about any of that stuff.” said Portland’s Juwan Howard. “We'll just go out there and get our wins and see what happens in the end." The Trailblazers are 13-6-1 ATS if opponent has winning home record.

The Lakers (56-23, 34-43-2 ATS) are a shell of the team that won the NBA title a season ago. Andre Bynum has been out for some time and his return is not imminent. Kobe Bryant’s legs are aching and that broken finger is throbbing, accounting for several off-shooting nights, as his team has lost five of their last eight, scoring less than 100 points six times in their last seven defeats.

When coach Phil Jackson was asked when was the last time his team played up to its potential, he uttered “Phoenix” whom the Lakers beat on the road 102-96 on Mar. 12, 14 games ago. Off their win at Minnesota Friday, L.A. is 1-7 ATS after covering the spread.

The Lakers are the home favorites and the home-standing team is on 6-1 ATS run. Los Angeles will come in 7-2 UNDER in last nine off a SU triumph. Portland suffered a disappointing home loss to Dallas two days ago and is 7-2 UNDER after a defeat, yet has covered the number in four of previous five after that circumstance.

Chicago at Toronto 6:00E TSN

The Bulls and Raptors are in a dead heat, making this a must game for each team with just two to play after today. Chicago (38-41, 39-38-2 ATS) is the healthier team at the moment and has won seven of last 11 outings to give themselves a chance.

"We've been through a lot this year. To be in this situation is great," center Joakim Noah said. "We've just got to be focused and understand what's at stake and hopefully play Cleveland in the playoffs." Their 11-point loss at New Jersey in last contest was certainly a blow and Chicago is 13-24 and 14-22-1 ATS following a spread misfortune.

Toronto (38-41, 36-41-2 ATS) is not even close to the same situation as Chicago. The Raptors are trying to manufacture on the run, losing their best player Chris Bosh to facial surgery and a number of Toronto players have various maladies, trying to get by and find a way into postseason.

"(It's) kind of tough right now but everyone's banged up a little bit," said Jose Calderon. "(Jarrett) Jack sprained his ankle a little bit, everybody has something. It's not like we have bodies to go there and practice... We have to be ready for the games and that's what it is." Toronto has fallen four straight times.

Toronto is 2-10-1 ATS in recent contests at the Air Canada Centre and is a 2.5-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com with total of 202. The Raptors are 8-2 UNDER as on home underdog of 4.5 or less and are perfect 5-0 ATS against Chicago.

The Bulls will seek to take advantage of Toronto’s defensive shortcomings and are 20-12 ATS versus teams surrendering shooting percentage of 46 percent or higher. Chicago is 8-4 UNDER in last 12 outings.