Hey it's a great day this Saturday

Off a 1-2 Friday, definitely seeking improvement. The Top Trend was our lone winner and we have one that has not lost in the Big 12. In fact we have a Big 12 theme today with Best System 22-4 ATS and Kendall has his Best Bet on the board from the same conference. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – I was as surprised as anybody to find the two awards I won at Cappers Monitor. Obviously I knew I was going well in CBB, yet honestly never gave it much a though otherwise. I’ll have to look further into where I’m at in the overall standings for CBB at other monitors I belong to. I don’t win at every sport, but I keep on making money, off being the champion of MLB at two different monitors last season.

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On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Colorado off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent after they allowed 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival. This is good, 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last two seasons winning by 17 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s 13-5 this week in all his plays and like Baylor to take down Texas.

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Say it isn't so, college hoops regular season ending?

It’s OK to feel a little choked up, real men do. The end of the regular season for college basketball is already here, it seems like football just ended and now this. But it’s fine, it’s time for March Madness, with more crazy twists and turns than Charley Sheen’s marriage to his wife Brooke. This is the time for fun and action, where a 15-point lead at halftime can dry up faster than a puddle of water up against an Arizona March sun. So take advantage of situation and don’t worry about what you don’t have, rather what you are about to enjoy. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Mar. 6

West Virginia at Villanova (-3.5, 151) 12:00E CBS

The impact on the Big East standings would be minimal, but for West Virginia (23-6, 12-16 ATS), this trip to Philadelphia is very meaningful. The Mountaineers are 6-4 and 4-6 ATS as visitors, lack a defining road win all season, with December victory at Seton Hall probably the best of the lot. West Virginia plays many of the aspects of basketball expertly, however they lack a true point guard and a shooter at the end of the game. West Virginia lost earlier at home to Villanova and is 1-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite.

Has the lack of Wildcats scoring and defense in low blocks finally caught up to them The immediate answer would be yes, as Nova has fallen four times since Feb. 6. Opposing teams are brazenly attacking Villanova (24-5, 18-10 ATS) at the rim and coach Jay Wright’s team is drawing fouls like clicks to Megan Fox’s website. Most of the points in the lane come on dribble penetration or put-backs, not conventional scoring. The Wildcats are 21-11 ATS playing a team with a winning record past the mid-point of schedule since last year.

The straight up winner is 15-0 ATS dating back to 1999.

Kansas at Missouri (+3, 145.5) 2:00E CBS

The Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State and have one more treacherous stop left. They played outstanding for all about seven minutes in crushing Kansas State by 17 points and has one last conference clash. Kansas (28-2) travels to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS), who lies in wait to conquer them. Coach Bill Self has been preaching at season, "We’ve got to have a killer instinct and bury people.” He’s seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13 ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.

Missouri’s in the Big Dance and an upset should improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges. Guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and are 8-2 ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.

Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2 ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.

Syracuse at Louisville (+1, 145) 2:00E ESPN

The last team to finish 9-0 on the Big East road was Connecticut 11 years ago and they went on to win national championship. Syracuse (28-2, 19-7 ATS) is perfect thus far as conference guests and would love to saunter down a similar path this season. The Orangemen are also 11-0 and 10-1 ATS away from Syracuse and freshman guard Brandon Triche has the answer why. "Less to do. On the road, you can't really go out. All you do is just sit there and think about the game." The ‘Cuse is 9-0 ATS having won four of five games this season.

It has been an escalator ride for Louisville (19-11, 9-16 ATS) this season; going down after loss at St. John’s by 19 and going right back up when they knocked off Syracuse in New York in next outing. This is not your typical Rick Pitino club, normally peaking at this time, instead when asked where his team was headed late in the season, his response was “next game”. This has been a team marked with inconsistency, making them an unsafe wager at home, where the Cardinals are 14-4, with rueful 4-9 ATS mark. This will be the last game at Freedom Hall, where Louisville has won over 80 percent of their games in this building since playing their starting in the 1957/58 season.

Not many matchups with Louisville, still a relative newcomer to Big East, yet Syracuse is 0-5 and 0-4-1 ATS the last three years.

Tennessee at Mississippi State (-3.5, 138.5) 6:00E ESPN

The Bulldogs shocking loss at Auburn means they still have work to do to be outright West Division champions of the SEC. Mississippi State (21-9, 13-11 ATS) did not show their usual defensive tenacity, allowing the Tigers score the most points against them all season (89) and surrender highest shooting percentage for a the year at 51.7. This is extremely important contest for the Bulldogs since they are not secure for NCAA bid. Despite having 22 victories, a perusal of those accomplishments has Old Dominion as best win. Mississippi State needs a W and be playing in the SEC championship to give them best chance for invite. The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS off a SU loss and spread failure.

Tennessee’s fate for now is set, finishing third in the SEC East and playing LSU in first tournament game. Coach Bruce Pearl wants his Volunteers (22-7, 11-15 ATS) to look at the bigger picture. A win at Starksville and at least a couple victories next week in Nashville could have Tennessee climbing to possibly a third seed when the NCAA bids are announced. Scotty Hopson’s more aggressive offensive manner and Brian Williams energy, make the Vols a tougher team to knock off. Wagering wise not so much, having covered only three of last 12 SEC conflicts.

The underdog has been the correct side in seven of last 10 meetings.

North Carolina at Duke (-14.5, 146) 9:00E ESPN

Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season. North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9 ATS facing teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.

It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival. This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.

This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10 ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997.

Sunday, Mar. 7

Florida at Kentucky ( ) 12:00E CBS

The Gators conclude the regular season with a matchup with their biggest rival Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker. However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2 ATS as away underdogs this season.

This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship. That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS vs. poor three-point shooting teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.

Kentucky has won nine of last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1 ATS mark.

Michigan at Michigan State ( ) 4:00E CBS

The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February. Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.

Michigan (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 and has fallen faster than American Idol winner Taylor Hicks from the limelight. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed. Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1 ATS as away underdog.

Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with 5-5 ATS record.

More Harry Carry!

And this!

If you would like to get my personal plays for Free,
send me email at rndsportz@yahoo.com.

A Harry Carry - Holy Cow

I happened to look in one of my many email accounts and found this.

Making a move on Friday

About as pedestrian as you can get at 1-1-1 for Thursday. The Top Trend was yesterday’s sole winner and we have NBA team in negative spot. I make rare appearance with selection from the CAA as my top play. The Best System is from the NBA and is 26-6! Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – Really enjoyed the hockey game last night with Phoenix pulling it out late 2-1. It’s a shame this team is headed to the playoffs for the first time in nine years and the place was half full. Hopefully when the new owners take over they can pump money into marketing. Beer is now $9.5 or $10, “see ya” to the suds.

Absolutely love this time of year with all the college tournaments and the big one to follow. Where did the CBB season go?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against any team who is average shooting team (43.5-45.5 percent), against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5 percent), in a game involving two clubs that are +3 to +5.5 in rebound margin. This system is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent and says to fade Detroit Pistons.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Dallas Mavs are 1-11 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season, winning by just 2.7 point per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) I had a bad night last night, but still have been among the better cappers in CBB for the last six weeks and I like Hofstra tonight.

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Colonial and WCC Conference Wagering Previews

The college conference action starts to build in earnest today with four more gearing up for action, to go along with those that have commenced. Our focus is on two that will have a championship game on ESPN this coming Monday night, the Colonial and West Coast conferences. Both leagues feature teams that have enjoyed NCAA tournament success and should have highly competitive events. In addition, we have some of the top wagering information on each conference, so let’s move ahead in these exciting days of March.

Colonial Athletic Association Preview

The CAA has enjoyed another exciting campaign and this year’s postseason tourney is sure to match. Five teams have a legitimate chance to be crowned champs with one more lurking on the outside. Old Dominion (23-8, 10-16-1 ATS) was the regular season champion, thanks in part to unblemished (15-0) home record. What is concern about the Monarchs is they don’t shoot the ball that well (44.8 percent), with many of their baskets coming on offensive rebounds as put-backs. This would seem to make them vulnerable. Northeastern (19-11, 15-13-1 ATS) doesn’t come in playing well, having lost three of last six (0-6 ATS) and not playing typically tough defense. George Mason (17-13, 11-15-1 ATS) has been in the finals the last three years and though talented, are very young, which could make them finalist or one and done.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 13-12 -1 ATS) has won the CAA tourney two of the last three years and has center Larry Sanders, who can be domineering player. The Rams style of pressure defense is disruptive and they have pedigree for this event, plus the advantage of playing in their home town of Richmond. William & Mary (20-9, 15-9-1 ATS) has been in the conference chase all season, however this is new territory for them, though they have the league’s best road record at 10-6 and 10-5 ATS. If you want a good long shot, try Hofstra (18-13, 14-14-1 ATS), they’ve won nine of 10 and are 9-3-1 ATS in true road games.

Betting notes- Favorites of less than 10 points have been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since 2002, sporting 40-19 ATS record…. Underdogs of 10 or more points are an unbelievable of late, showing mediocre 2-15 SU record but astonishing 15-2 ATS (88.2 percent) mark since 2003….Total players can cash with bankroll building 37-17 UNDER record in the last six years. … In the championship game, the favored team has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75 percent).

Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth vs. Hofstra final

West Coast Conference Preview

This is one of the most dependable tournaments in determining at least one of the teams to be in the finals. Gonzaga (25-5, 14-10-2 ATS) has been the class of the WCC for years and has been a finalist every year since 1998, being the champions nine times. They will again be heavily favored, playing in Las Vegas again, with the matter of whom their opponent might be.
St. Mary’s (24-5, 18-9-1 ATS) and Portland (20-9, 14-10-1 ATS) are presumed to be the only two candidates worthy and the Bulldogs have won and covered against them in four tries this season. The Gaels and Pilots are expected to square off a third time in the semis, with each having won on their home court.

St. Mary’s would appear to have the edge with 10-3 SU road record (9-3 ATS) and difference-maker like center Omar Samhan in the paint. The Gaels are not a lock, as Portland has a good club and knows the only way to make NCAA Tournament is winning the West Coast tourney. Should these teams meet as expected, there matchup on ESPN2 Sunday night might be better than the finals.

Betting Notes -Favorites of seven or more are 27-0 SU and 19-8 ATS in the WCC tournamentsince 1998….Favorites own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the last 12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9 percent) record in Round One….Neutral floor chalk of seven points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4 percent) in the WCC tournament since 1998….Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since 2001, are 10-1 OVER the number.

Prediction: Gonzaga and Portland final

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Late (as in time) Thursday Update

Have to make this snappy, running late and things to do after 2-1 Tuesday. Good Luck

What I’m doing today – In the true fashion of Twitter, I’m going to Colorado at Phoenix hockey game. I promise I won’t have any other updates about this during the game.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 point like Dayton, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent, after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more. This system is highly profitable 27-6 ATS, 81.8 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Phoenix Suns are 11-0 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Willie of the LCC is going great in the NBA (15-5) and has the team from Planet Orange (the Suns) as his best bet.

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Missouri Valley Conference Wagering Overview

This will be the first conference of the more prominent mid-majors and they will enjoy a national audience to boot for its championship encounter. Three teams seem head and shoulders above the rest for the 20th edition of “Arch Madness” in St. Louis and they are Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Illinois State.

The Favorites

Northern Iowa (25-4) is the regular season champion and has been one of the better wagers in college basketball all season at 18-10 ATS. The Panthers have been hanging around the bottom portions of the Top 25 since January and are destined to be in the Big Dance, leaving those to wonder about mindset and the possibility of an upset. Northern Iowa are the defending champs and seek third title since 2004.

Historically, second-seeded Wichita State (23-8, 11-13 ATS) has not played well in this event, carrying a 21-28 record. The Shockers are at least statistically as good if not better than Northern Iowa. Wichita State is tops in The Valley in scoring margin (+8.7), rebounding margin (+4.8), assists (14.6) and steals (7.2). A concern about the Shockers is 1-6 ATS record since Feb. 3 and 6-8 and 5-8 ATS record away from Wichita.

Illinois State (21-9, 12-14-1 ATS) has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in the tournament, having been to the championship game three straight times. The Redbirds have won six of their last seven games, losing only at Northern Iowa in last outing. In order to return to championship, Illinois State will have to play superior defense like they have been lately and receive big contributions from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.

The Long Shots

Fourth seeded Creighton (16-14, 12-15 ATS) has won this event a record 10 times, but doesn’t look they have what it takes this season, particularly with 3-12 SU road record. The Blue Jays will take on Bradley (15-14, 13-15 ATS) in quarterfinal matchup that is already determined and the Braves are in double revenge and are 9-5 SU and ATS with three or more days rest.

Drake, Southern Illinois, Missouri State (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) and Evansville will play the first day in St. Louis. Of this group, the Bears have the best shot of making the semifinals or beyond. Missouri State has made the finals four times since 2001, finishing second each time. They are the top scoring team in the league at 71.9 points per game and convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.

The Numbers

The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 SU and profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.

There have been 11 instances since 2004 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.

Large FAVORITES or those laying seven-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.

Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

The Outcome

In the top half of the bracket, Northern Iowa faces Bradley in the semi-finals, who pull the minor upset of Creighton. The Braves have split two games with the Panthers, covering each time and are nipped in the rubber game. Missouri State shocks Wichita State in the quarters and falls to Illinois State who limits their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale.

The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon and will not a thrill a minute spectacular, with the projected total in the low 120’s. Illinois State will provide strong competition and play even or close most of the way, until Northern Iowa’s veteran experience takes over in the last five minutes and closes the deal, giving them two straight Arch Madness crowns.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

NBA wagering as easy as counting simple numbers

Last week we reviewed the possibilities of what occurs with tired teams, this week we’ll engage in the exercise of NBA squads with no days off all the way to three or days between games for the 2009-10 campaign. As one might expect, teams with roughly 24 hours between games don’t fare well and are generally a losing proposition, though exceptions do exist. It’s a mixed bag for clubs with a day or two off and sometimes, the ATS results might not even tell the whole story! NBA teams with three or more days off are a diverse group, seemingly with no rhyme or reason, but who’s to argue, as long as it leads to a winner! Let’s dive in.

Zero Rest

Among the reasons why the NBA is so difficult to beat wagering on a consistent basis is back to back games. What makes it tougher than say the NHL, which has the same schedule setup, professional basketball is being played with five players for extended periods of time, with usually no more than 10 players seeing the floor for an individual team. Though hockey has six players per squad on the ice at a given time, the shifts are usually no longer than two minutes and as many as 15 players will be skating around the rink for each club during a contest.

This means a player having a bad day with a wife, girlfriend, fellow player (can you say Gilbert Arenas) or coach, could have a direct impact on the game by as much as 20 percent when he is on the floor. Here are the poorest bets one could make this season on teams with no rest. (Note: SU record followed by ATS)

Toronto 5-9, 3-11 ATS
Sacramento 5-10, 4-9-2 ATS

Phoenix 6-9, 6-9 ATS
New York 2-12, 5-9 ATS

Detroit 4-13, 4-12-1 ATS
Cleveland 10-5, 6-9 ATS

The Raptors are especially ugly, losing by 9.2 points per game, with the Pistons misfiring roster nearly as bad at 8.4 PPG. New York and Sacramento are just bad teams, with no rest further enhancing their weaknesses. The Suns are an older team, which would stand to reason why they might struggle in this situation. The majority of the Cavaliers failures have been trying to overcome large numbers from oddsmakers or off big emotional games.

With 30 teams, not everyone fails without rest, some actually succeed, and it’s just the manner in which they do it.

Charlotte 7-8, 10-5 ATS
Golden State 3-10, 9-4 ATS
Milwaukee 10-6, 12-3-1 ATS
Utah 6-7, 8-4-1 ATS
Portland 12-3, 12-3 ATS

The Trailblazers and Bucks are younger teams and they have thrived when confronted with back to back games, winning by 6.6 and 5.2 points per game respectively. The Warriors and Bobcats lack stellar SU records but play closer than what oddsmakers expect them to in piling up spread victories. Golden State has lost by 2.5 PPG and Charlotte by less than point.
Additionally, within this cluster, are more select situations to have a handle on about particular teams. Here is a quick look at the best and worst playing consecutive nights.

Milwaukee (Away/Home) 8-1 ATS
Portland (A/A) 9-1 ATS
Minnesota (A/H) 5-0 ATS
Utah (A/A) 5-0 ATS
Denver (A/A) 1-5-1 ATS

One Day of Rest

This category supports the better teams win at least straight up, with those setting the numbers trying to balance action against premier clubs.

Atlanta 20-9, 17-12 ATS
Boston 20-12, 11-20-1 ATS
Cleveland 27-6, 19-14 ATS
Dallas 22-9, 13-18 ATS
Denver 19-11, 14-16 ATS
L.A. Lakers 23-7, 13-16-1 ATS

Orlando 22-9, 17-13-1 ATS
Phoenix 21-13-12, 23-11 ATS
San Antonio 21-13, 17-16-1 ATS

Utah 21-12, 20-13 ATS

This grouping makes the most sense of any, as a very solid team has advantage of talent, backed with a normal amount of rest. On the assumption all factors are relatively equal, these teams should and do win. Within this, there are nuggets of information to consider.
The Lakers may have losing spread record, however they win these matchups by 7.5 points per game, above their season average of 6.4 PPG, proving those that want to back Kobe and friends are going to pay for them like taking extra baggage on a flight. Boston (+4.2 PPG on the season) is in the same scenario, winning by 4.0 PPG with a day off compared to season average and is really paying the price against the spread.

The exceptions are the Suns and Jazz, winning by 6.1 and 5.3 points per game respectively, more in line with receiving fair market value for their win/loss records. The Hawks are also a fit covering over 58 percent, with a working margin of 4.8 PPG.

One team that is not among the elite, yet has fared well in this position is Memphis at 18-12 and 17-13 ATS, winning by 1.6 PPG.

New Jersey (3-25, 10-18 ATS) fits in virtually every negative aspect of the spectrum, but another squad, Philadelphia, is an equally bad wager at 10-17 ATS, with matching SU record.

Two Days Rest

The next part of the puzzle becomes more specialized, with real winners and losers and some being penalized for who they are.

Cleveland 6-1, 2-4-1 ATS

Dallas 8-0, 7-1 ATS
Denver 7-1, 4-4 ATS
Golden State 2-6, 6-2 ATS
Milwaukee 8-4, 8-4 ATS
New Jersey 0-10, 3-7 ATS
Oklahoma City 8-2, 8-2 ATS
Orlando 4-4, 4-7-1 ATS
Toronto 8-1, 6-3 ATS

The Mavericks have been the class of this bunch, not only with tremendous record, but tearing the opposition apart by 13 PPG. Evidently the Cavaliers and Nuggets have to win by such a large margin also, since their point differentials of +9 and +10.1, only lead to mediocre spread results, again supporting the point that linemakers offer no breaks to public teams. The Raptors and Thunder have thrived with additional rest, being good bets, with the public not paying as close attention to them, and the Milwaukee Bucks are in similar situation. Golden State has been the golden goose as the underdog, covering 75 percent, in spite of only two victories.

Three or more Days Rest

This segment has the fewest amount of plays per team and is the most volatile. How else can one explain the Lakers at 5-0 SU, pounding opponents by overwhelming 14.0 PPG, justify a 2-3 spread record, while Denver is 6-0 and 5-0-1 ATS, being victorious by 10.2 PPG. Who the opponent is plays into the mix, which one large blowout; combined with several more conventional triumphs can be part of the answer.

The most important lesson to take away from this quadrant is a large amount of rest can either enhance or decline a team’s chances of winning. The extended period of time off might rejuvenate one club, while others might be off kilter without playing and struggle to find there rhythm. Here’s what I mean.

Dallas 1-5, 0-6 ATS
New Orleans 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Philadelphia 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Toronto 4-2, 4-2 ATS

In conclusion, the more you know about how NBA teams perform with variable amounts of rest, the more you put the odds on your side to win bets. This can be as easy as 1 -2 -3.

Super Wednesday of College Hoops

While all the talk in college basketball is about seeds, brackets, who’s in and who’s out, the college basketball bettor is focused on one thing, what winners can I find today? Sports bettors live in two worlds, the present, trying to win, or the past, reflecting on the prior wins and losses. The former is a healthy trait, particularly when a number of consequential contests are on tap, which keep the Joe Lunardi’s of the world employed. (Note –In the world of full disclosure, Lunardi does have a real job, Assistant Vice President of Marketing Communications at Saint Joseph's University and does color commentary for men's basketball team)

Luke Who?

Time to fess up, even if you are a Notre Dame fanatic, drinking the blue and gold kool-aid, the only basketball team that was going to play in the NCAA Tournament was the women’s once Luke Harangody went down. Three punch-in-the-gut losses left Notre Dame at 17-10, with ranked teams Pittsburgh and Georgetown up next, the dreaded acronym – NIT – was being used again. Yet, after suffering those defeats, senior guard Tory Jackson and sharp shooter Tim Abromaitis have taken the team on their backs and gotten other players to follow suit and all of the sudden the Irish are fighting NCAA Tournament bid.

Notre Dame (19-10, 12-10-1 ATS) isn’t necessarily a better team without Harangody, who will be honored on senior night, though is not expected to play with bone bruise on his knee. What changed is Jackson and Abromaitis decided to become more assertive and others like Tyrone Nash, Carlton Scott and seldom used Harangody look-alike Jack Cooley have followed their lead. The Fighting Irish are a confident club, fighting to be invited to the field of 65. Notre Dame has covered four of last five and is 16-3 (7-6 ATS) at home.

Standing in their way is an even more desperate team in Connecticut (17-12, 11-15-1 ATS). The Huskies have to win their last two games in the Big East and probably a couple in the postseason tournament to have chance. From a purely talent perspective, the Huskies are probably the better team, but inconsistency has plagued UConn who is 17-33 ATS on the road after consecutive home games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame as two-point choice and they are 7-17 ATS after covering the spread over the last two seasons. Connecticut is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog and will look to derail the Irish’s hopes while enhancing their own dreams. The Huskies have won six of previous seven meetings with five covers for this 7:00 Eastern ESPN contest.

Dorothy, we are in Kansas

Coach Frank Martin might rub more than a few folks the wrong way with his barking dog delivery on the sidelines, Mike Singletary steely eyes and bluntness in describing what he sees. Let those people whine while Kansas State turns into Big 12 power and at least this year, Wildcats backers clean up. K-State is 22-4 and still harbors an outside chance to tie for conference crown and is 17-6 against the spread. The last time Kansas State was ranked fifth in the country was 42 years ago, when their coach was Tex Winter (accredited for the triangle offense) and Lakers coach Phil Jackson was 13 years old. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game this season.

Martin has shown to be an “everything” person, he wants to win the Big 12, win the national championship and whatever else he can accomplish. To have a chance, his club must beat Kansas (27-2, 10-15-1 ATS) in Lawrence.

The Jayhawks were removed from No. 1 perch losing at Oklahoma State four days ago and will seek to reestablish themselves quickly against in-state rival. This game will be rock, chalk, jayhawk full of emotion for guard Sherron Collins. The senior leader will be making his final appearance at Allen Fieldhouse and will want to maintain Kansas’ 58-game home winning streak, the longest in the country. Kansas is 12-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

The Jayhawks are a nine-point favorite, with total of 149.5 and are 11-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game and are 7-1 UNDER playing only their second tilt in eight days. Kansas State is 10-2 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 contests and 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.

ACC title on the line

The Atlantic Coast Conference has not received its usual acclaim this season, with North Carolina plummeting to unforeseen depths and many others being merely pedestrian. Duke and Maryland have managed to stay above the mediocrity and will battle in an important ACC clash.

Maryland (21-7, 14-9 ATS) is a game behind Duke in the standings and jacked-up for senior night. The Terrapins fans will salute seniors Landon Milbourne, Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes.

“In the beginning of year, when I looked at the schedule and saw Duke on Senior Night, I got pretty excited,” Milbourne said Tuesday. “Now, it’s even bigger because we’re fighting for the regular-season title. We’ve been trying to get this chance since I’ve been here, and it’s finally here.” The Terps have won five consecutive games, 11 of 13 and are 14-4 ATS at home off three straight wins against ACC rivals.

It’s difficult to fathom, but only in the last week or two has Duke (25-4, 17-10-1 ATS) been really considered in the hierarchy of college basketball this season. Perceptions are hard to break and the Blue Devils have been an overrated team the last few years. This team is different, with production in the paint, a +5 rebound margin and positive contributions coming off the bench. Duke isn’t going to win if two if their big three have off-nights (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler), however they have found the answer when one of the trio hasn’t been in top form regularly. Duke is 9-0 ATS versus high-powered offensive teams dropping 77 or more points a game this season.

The Dukies are a short one-point favorite at the sold-out Comcast Center, with total of 146.5. Duke is 17-7 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite, which they were at Virginia (67-49) and is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 55 points or less. Coach Gary Williams might need two suits the way he perspires, yet he has to like his club’s chances since they are 17-6 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread.

This is the late game on ESPN and the Blue Devils have taken last five (4-0-1 ATS) during the regular season and are 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at College Park the last dozen years.

Time for another 3-0 Day

Took a 1-1 day to start the work week and we’ll see what we can do about improving on that figure. Willie has been doing well in the NBA of late and has his Best Bet for Free. The Top Trend is in Big East action and so is the Best System, which is 85.2 percent. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – When you wager daily, you are going to make mistakes for a variety of reasons. Yesterday I was 0-1 in both CBB and the NBA being too conservative, not trusting my own numbers and judgment and passed up three plays I could have won on. Live and learn.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like Marquette when the line is +3 to -3, against a team outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game in March. Does 23-4 ATS put a smile on your face?

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Cincinnati is 2-12 ATS playing against a team with a win percentage of 80% or higher the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Willie of the LCC is 8-3 on NBA sides in last 11 and likes Boston to break out of the slump.

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Conference Tournament Pointspread Tendencies

As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.

Horizon League

*Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
*Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
*The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
*Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.

Ohio Valley Conference

*UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
*The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years. * Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).

Missouri Valley Conference

*The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. *In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
*There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
*Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
*Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

Colonial Athletic Association

*The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
*DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
*FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
*UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.

Sun Belt Conference

*Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years.

*In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
*SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
*Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

*FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
*UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
*Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).

Southern Conference

*Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
*The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
*Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
*Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.

West Coast Conference

*The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
*FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
*Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
*Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).

Big Sky Conference

*The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
*There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
*The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
*FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Summit League

This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.

Mid-American Conference

*FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
*The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
*Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
*The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
*OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

By Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Sac-Town in Tuesday Totals Play

The Kings have won consecutive games and will try for three in a row, something they have not been able to accomplish since winning four straight Nov. 25 –Dec. 2. Sacramento is again having a miserable season at 20-39, being outscored by 4.4 points per game and are 26th in scoring defense at 105.4 points per game. Among the few bright spots has been rookie Tyreke Evans (he of the well placed elbow) for the Kings, who are horrifying 5-25 on the road (14-15-1 ATS) this season.

Sacramento wants to build a product like Oklahoma City (35-23 SU & ATS), who is one of the up and coming teams in the NBA, led by Kevin Durant. The Thunder has also won two consecutive games, each in blowout fashion (17 and 20 points) and has emerged victorious in 11 of last 13 contests.

“… We have that mindset of trying to be guys that go out and get after it and have that competitive spirit for 48 minutes straight,” Durant said. “That’s our brand of basketball here in Oklahoma City, and that’s how it’s going to be for a long time.”

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma City as 10-point favorites with total of 202.5. Pay particular attention to the total for this reason.

Dreadful road teams, being outscored by three or more points a game, against opponent after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with a total in the range of 200 to 209.5, are 37-11 OVER the last 14 years.

In this situation, the average total score is 212.6 points and this super situation has really been heating up with 17-3 record the previous three seasons. Sacramento is 8-3 OVER as an underdog, while OKC is 8-3 OVER after scoring 100 or more points. Consider this NBA system tonight.

College teams make case for Big Dance

This evening, ranked teams Vanderbilt, UTEP and Ohio State are looking for brownie points in enhance position for NCAA Tournament, but what about their opponents, what kind of noise can they make, since it is because of them you even know the name Joe Lunardi. Here is a look at what the three OTHER teams have to do tonight in the final week of college basketball.

Leave the alligator alone

Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS) is attempting to reenter the NCAA Tournament after a two-year period making their way thru the minor leagues of the NIT. Depending on one’s point of view, the optimist would see playing ranked teams Vanderbilt (22-6, 13-12 ATS) and Kentucky as a real opportunity to lockdown a bid, while the pessimist would see two more losses coming.
The Gators didn’t help their own confidence, losing at Georgia 78-76 this past Saturday and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss. Nevertheless, the coach believes they will come back.

“This team has played hard all year, and they’ve responded well,” coach Billy Donovan said. “I anticipate that they’ll respond and play as hard as they can. Our guys understand we have to play well to put ourselves in a good position.”

Florida is a three-point home favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 146.5. The Gators are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and are 11-1 and 8-4 ATS at the O'Connell Center against the Commodores. Vandy is only 4-15 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.

Watch out for Thundering Herd

For the last several years, a good trivia question pertaining to college basketball would have been, “In 30 seconds, name the other teams in Conference USA besides Memphis?” With John Calipari taking his recruiting skills and likely probation to Kentucky, like a field filled with small holes, C-USA teams are like prairie dogs popping their heads above ground level and scurrying about. One such team is UTEP (22-5, 11-12 ATS), who is seeking outright title this evening in the state West Virginia and are set to be a treacherous foe for a higher seed in the Big Dance.

Another team trying to get noticed is Marshall (22-7, 14-8 ATS), who is 10-4 and in fourth place in C-USA. Not familiar with the Thundering Herd, than you are missing out. Marshall started the season 15-2, and then lost five in a row, with three of the losses by a total of nine points. This experience made this club tougher and they have reeled off seven wins in a row (4-2 ATS). The Herd holds teams to 38.7 percent shooting, 14th in the country. Marshall has a swatting machine in 6’11 Hassan Whiteside. The freshman leads the country in blocked shots at almost unimaginable 5.5 per game and his 159 rejection notices are 16th all-time in the NCAA with two games to go. For good measure, Whiteside also averages 13.2 points and 9.0 rebounds. Marshall is 11-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

This should be a tremendous matchup, as the Miners also play great defense (38.9 percent shooting allowed) and shoot the ball well (47.8) and create defensive pressure and are 15-6 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons. Marshall is a slim one point favorite, with total having risen to 147.5 and the Herd is 8-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

What kind of fight does Illini have?

Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota this past Saturday might be the deciding factor as to why they don’t make the field of 65. Coach Bruce Webber’s team has lost three of four and needs to beat ranked teams Ohio State and Wisconsin this week and probably at least get into Big Ten tourney semifinals to secure a spot. After going thru a period of six games starting in late January where they shot 51.1 percent as team (5-1, 4-2 ATS), Illinois (18-11, 11-15-1 ATS) has gone frigid, shooting 37.3 percent or worse in three of last four contests.

The off-target Illini were 23 for 72 against the Golden Gophers, yet remain hopeful since they are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 33 percent of their shots or less.
They will take on a motivated Ohio State squad (23-7, 15-15 ATS) who has plenty to play for. This is the Buckeyes last Big Ten game and a victory assures them of finishing no worse than tied for conference crown, with a chance to still win it outright, pending the results of Purdue and Michigan State, who also have four league losses. The Buckeyes have won nine of 10 (5-5 ATS) and are off a non-cover against Michigan, which plays to their favor since they are 27-12 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.

The sixth ranked Buckeyes are led by Evan Turner, whose stellar all-around play (21.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals) has him as virtual shoo-in for Big Ten player of the year and in a small group for national player of the year. “I wanted to win a Big Ten title, try to get a national championship and try to be one of the best to ever come out of here,” Turner said.

Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite, however the way the Big Ten season has gone, road teams have enjoyed much success when you least expect it, especially among the top level clubs. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games this season, while the grey and scarlet clad Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in home games after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this campaign.

Ridin' High on a Monday

Nailed all three plays yesterday, which was a welcome figure after Friday’s not so special day. We have a number of NBA systems to consider which are listed below on this page. The Top Trend applies to the Big Monday contest in the Big East. Good Luck

What I saw today – (11:30 MST) As per usual, NBA bettors are hitting the totals and three games in particular stand out. Orlando and Philadelphia have gone from 195.5 to 198, in spite of the Magic being 22-9 UNDER on the road this season. New York and Cleveland have also risen, up 2.5-points to 213, which makes more sense as the Knicks are 14-2 OVER in road games having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Oddsmakers opened Denver and Phoenix at 225, and that figure swiftly went south to 221. That seems to be the right direction as the Nuggets average total score is 210.2 points per game with no rest and the Suns is 215.

Very interesting to see Charlotte move from a one point favorite to three, seeing they have never beaten Dallas since joining the NBA and the Mavs have won seven straight.

There are just six college basketball games on the Monday docket. Favored West Virginia has moved up a point to 6.5, while Texas and Utah State have dropped one digit as favorites.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See article listed below.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Georgetown is 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) After yesterday's winner, Steve has the Hornets with the points over the Spurs.

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Top NBA Monday Systems

Changes will be occurring in Charlotte as an ownership bid has been made, headed by one of the NBA’s best players ever. Tonight’s question does that lift the burden off the Bobcats to finally take down Dallas for the first time ever? The numbers point to no, at least as far as system plays are concerned, as we review the possibilities on an NBA Monday. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Dallas (+2, 192) at Charlotte

The Bobcats will officially have a new ownership group led by Michael Jordan once the league approves them. Until then, the next order of business is doing something they have never done, beat Dallas. Charlotte is 0-11 (4-6-1 ATS) against the Mavericks since joining the league and faces a club that has won seven in a row and is not in a favorable position tonight. Play against teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher, since they are 27-6 ATS the last 14 years.

Orlando (-4, 196) at Philadelphia

The Magic have been playing their usual solid defense, holding last six opponents to 95.5 points per game, however the offense has been a little stagnant, averaging 97 points a contest in last five tries compared to season average of 101. Look to play against (7-24 ATS, L5Y) teams after five or more consecutive Unders, who are a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.

New York (+11.5, 211) at Cleveland

The Cavaliers have won three in a row, shooting over 50 percent as a team, while the Knicks have lost nine of 10 and dream about tendering LeBron James a contract in the off-season. For now, play Over on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, off two or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team. This situation is 61-22 since 1996.

San Antonio (-2.5, 195) at New Orleans

At times this season, it’s been almost hard to believe this is the San Antonio Spurs coached by Greg Popovich. Take their last four games in which they have allowed 109 or more points three times. Nevertheless, teams like the Spurs who are road favorites and ordinary defensive team (92-98 PPG), taking on poorer defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 47-18 ATS, including 4-1 against the spread this season.

Portland (+1, 195) at Memphis

Portland concludes their five game road trip in the mid-south off a mauling of division partner Minnesota 110-91. Given the total on this contest, look to play Under on road teams when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. In the last five seasons, this system is 72-33.

Denver (+2.5, 221) at Phoenix

Both teams suffered defeats against conference rivals yesterday, ending winning streaks. Phoenix is 22-7 SU at Planet Orange (home court) winning by eight points per game and appears to be in the better spot. Home favorites having successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 20-3 ATS the last three years.

Utah (-6, 202) at L.A. Clippers

Los Angeles has lost three of four to the Jazz at home, including Feb. 9 matchup 109-99 as five point underdogs. This places the Clips in a negative predicament since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a home loss of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season, are 9-30 ATS.

Hoyas faltering at the finish

When Georgetown (19-8, 12-11 ATS) is at their best, it can literally beat any team in the country. When the mental aspect is off-kilter, unsightly performances are the norm rather than an aberration, similar to what happened at home in loss to Notre Dame 78-64, their third loss in four games.

Though this subject has been beaten to death here and other places, the lack of spark off the bench has never helped ignite the Hoyas out of lethargic play or for other reasons. Against the Irish, leading scorer Austin Freeman was battling the flu and scored a season-low five points, with no help in sight. Georgetown better bring the energy to Morgantown or they tumble to 11-26 ATS against Big East foes the last two campaigns.

It’s not easy what to make of West Virginia (22-6, 11-16 ATS), being similar to other clubs coach Bob Huggins had at Cincinnati. With the available talent, an Elite 8 showing or better is possible, but when Mountaineer players are clanging hoists off the rim, a second round NCAA Tournament upset appears just as likely. Though the Big East is rugged enough, Georgetown is the right opponent to test West Virginia, since they are 8-2 ATS this season off a spread loss.

The Mountaineers off their come from behind home win over Cincinnati 74-68 is 33-13 ATS on their own floor off a home triumph and is a 5.5-point favorite over Georgetown with a total of 138 at DiamondSportsbook.com. Georgetown’s lack of scoring in last outing had them falling below the oddsmakers number and they are only 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons. The Hoyas are 21-9 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more and West Virginia is 14-3 UNDER at home after a win by six points or less.

This final Big Monday, Big East matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and has West Virginia 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more games this season, winning by 17 points per contest.

Back to Business Sunday

Sorry I missed everyone yesterday; to make a long story short, my daughter lives in Hawaii, which caused a few anxious moments early in the day and ended up going to the Phoenix Open. I decided it was better to do nothing than a poor job.

Speaking of poor, that’s what we were Friday at just 1-3, so let’s make this a bounce back day. Have a terrific system play that is 87.5 percent in the ACC and found a strong Top Trend in the NBA. Good Luck

What I noticed yesterday – The Phoenix Open is easily the craziest golf tournament on the PGA Tour. 30,000+ people at the 16th hole cheering all the time, while downing a few(?) adult beverages. Large groups of people dressed in similar fashion (about 30 people were all dressed in various forms of yellow and white) moving around as group. In all, fun to watch, even the golf.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Virginia, who are average three-point shooting team (32-36.5 percent) against a good three-point defense (32 percent or less), after two straight games making 37 percent of their shots or worse. This is really a superb system at 28-4 ATS, 87.5 percent the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The L.A. Clippers are 2-13 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Steve from the LCC really is good with Western Region teams in all sports and tells me UC-Davis is the play.

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

NBA Sunday Action

Four of the top seven teams in the highly competitive Western Conference will be on display Sunday afternoon before a national television audience. Phoenix starts the day with southwest theme, traveling to face their postseason nemesis San Antonio. Later, two of the three division leaders from the West, Denver and the L.A. Lakers, will meet for a second time this month. This should be two quality contests and who knows; maybe Phil Jackson will give a parabolic dissertation during a break talking to ABC sideline reporter.

Suns are hot

The Phoenix Suns (37-23, 33-26-1 ATS) are at their highest winning percentage in two years and look to make it six wins in a row. Phoenix has won six of seven and is doing it in a way nobody thought possible, with defense. The suddenly defensive-minded Suns have held last seven opponents to 97 points per game, a jaw-dropping 8.2 points below season average. Coach Alvin Gentry is going to hate to see February disappear since his club is 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS this month, performing like a ruling dictator, with a perfect 9-0 record when leading by 10 points or more in a contest.

Don’t dismiss San Antonio (32-24, 26-29-1 ATS) just yet. A measure of a team’s strength is their margin of victory. The Spurs might have just the seventh best record in the West, but they are fourth in point differential at +4.o, ahead of division leading Dallas (+2.1). They have blown an uncharacteristic number of leads and suffered defensive meltdowns at inopportune times. This team might not resemble the won that won four NBA titles is nine years, but there core players are still intact, making the Spurs dangerous. San Antonio is just 1-3 in previous four tries and is 22-10 ATS at home after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Spurs favored by 3.5-points with total of 208.5 and after losing to Houston Friday, is just 1-8 ATS after a division game this season. Phoenix beat the Clippers two days ago 125-112 and is 20-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season.
The opening game is set for 1:00 Eastern with the Suns 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits.

Revenge is best served cold

The Lakers (44-15, 25-32-2 ATS) lost at the Staples Center just over three weeks ago to Denver 126-113 and will be thinking payback. The great orator coach Jackson, seldom passes up an opportunity to play with opponent’s minds and recently said, “Some of these guys' (the Lakers) sentiment is Utah is going to outplay Denver,". Phil, Phil, Phil.

Los Angeles has been meandering most of the month with 7-4 (3-8 ATS) record and players have wondered aloud about their own effort. “Maybe we weren't going to get the ball with the will necessary." -- Pau Gasol, on the Lakers getting outrebounded in Dallas and Memphis this past week.

The Lakers defeated Philadelphia in last contest 99-90 as 11-point favorites and is 3-8 ATS off a home no-cover were the team won straight up as a favorite.

The Nuggets (39-19, 27-28-3 ATS) start a strenuous week, beginning with the Lakers, followed up at Phoenix and home to Oklahoma City. Denver understands the way to beat the Lakers, you have to be more aggressive, limit mistakes and not let them control the lane. In the last contest, they took the game to L.A. shooting 57.1 percent and doing a better job in half court sets in shot selection. Denver comes in 12-1 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.

L.A. is a 6.5-point favorite and total is posted at 208.5. They may have the edge since Denver is 3-11 ATS playing their third game in four days this year. The Lake show is 22-8 UNDER on Sunday’s since last season. Mark this matchup for 3:30 Eastern.