Saturday's Hot Plate

We’ve been in a slump all week, time to bounce out of it and I believe we have the ammo to do so. We’ll start in the Big Ten with an 85.7 percent Best System. That is followed by a perfect reverse trend at 0-15. Though I actually like the team to win and cover, I’m off it because of the strong angle. Paul Buck has not one but two Free Plays today. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – It drives me crazy when people gloat about be right on a game they were incredibly fortunate to win. Thursday night I had a push with East Carolina and I got emails from people who had West Virginia at -12.5, telling me what a sap I was for having ECU. I guess I am, since I had the correct side for 58 minutes and only a bad bounce that led to interception cost me the cover. You will always find me thanking my lucky stars when I receive luck like that, not bragging because of unusual fortune.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home team like MEECHIGAN off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of six more, with a winning record on the season. Since 2000, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Saw this earlier this year and still can’t believe it. Penn State is 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is having an exceptional season in college football with 62-39 record (61.3 percent) on all sides and totals. He won’t reveal his top pick (it’s for sale here) but his next two choices are UCLA and N.C. State.

We have a pair of 4* plays (out of 5) that are a Guaranteed Package in college football today. Be a HUGE Winner today!

The Platinum Sheet is stuffed with winning information and picks.

College Football Watch and Win Action

It’s crunch in college football. Conference titles are up for grabs as calendar rolls into the first weekend of November. Upsets are not only likely, they are expected. Does LSU have the muscle to knock off Alabama? Will Ohio State win at Penn State to set up bigger Big Ten battle with Iowa next? If Stanford is going to upset Oregon, they couldn’t ask for better setup. Connecticut and Nebraska have had tumultuous seasons for different reasons; do they have one big game left in them? Can Tulsa rise from three-game losing streak and mess with Houston’s dreams? Answers forthcoming. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

LSU (+7.5, 40) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Sage SEC watchers knew, all the preseason talk of Ole Miss being an upstart in the West Division was bunk, the winner was going to come down to who wins this matchup. For a team that squeaked by Mississippi State (30-26) and Georgia 20-13) on the road and did nothing offensively against top-ranked Florida in falling 13-3, the Tigers (7-1, 4-3 ATS) are receiving a lot of love. There are a number of reasons as to why. If LSU wins out, they will be 11-1 and have rematch with Gators in SEC title tilt. Talent is not an issue for Les Miles club, desire to execute is the conundrum. Besides, it’s more fun to overlook Alabama and Mississippi games are on the road. The Bayou Tigers are 2-6-2 ATS since 2004 on the road after two or more home games.

With a week off, Alabama (5-3 ATS) is expected to be refreshed and continue journey towards showdown with Florida. That means quarterback Greg McElroy has to play like he did in the first five games, not the last three. The Crimson Tide is on unfortunate roll of 11 field goals and one offensive touchdown in the last three SEC contests. Thanks to Mt. Cody (Terrence Cody) single-handedly moving Tennessee linemen backwards twice, Bama is 8-0 for a second straight year. All the blame shouldn’t fall on McElroy, as the offensive line could makes everything easier if sophomore RB Mark Ingram had a few more lanes to run thru. Alabama is 9-1 ATS off two home non-covers where the team won as a favorite.

Have mentioned before the SEC is stuffed with quirky rivalries and this is another that is a head scratcher. The visiting team is 10-1-2 against the spread in the series. Given the preceding number, it would figure close contests right, not a chance with average victory margin of 14 points during this span. The Tide is after first back-to-back covers since 1995-96.

3DW Line – Alabama by 10

Ohio State (+5, 39) at Penn State 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

With Iowa having won last week, this Big Ten battle is elimination game for all practical purposes. Ohio State (7-2 SU& ATS) and Penn State (8-1, 5-4 ATS) both have a conference loss, though the Buckeyes does hold one edge since they face the Hawkeyes at home next week. Ohio State’s chances of success will fall on the young shoulders of Terrelle Pryor, who has played his best against the weaker teams (Purdue not included) and strained taking on better competition with stronger defenses. It does help when the defense plays up to capabilities and creates a turnover or three, giving the Buckeyes momentum and short field. Ohio State is 12-1 ATS playing teams with .666 or higher win percentage.

Penn State needs help in order to be Big Ten champions, having lost to Iowa earlier in the season. The first step is knocking off Oho State, who would presumably be angry and want to topple Iowa from the ranks of the unbeaten. Beyond that, the Nittany Lions can only hope the Hawkeyes lose. Since falling to Iowa, Penn State has been like an approaching November storm, gathering momentum and raining down on opponents. Quarterback Daryll Clark is playing at highest level of the season, connecting with big-play threat wide receiver Derek Moye, which has opened up the rest of the field for other pass catchers. Running back Evan Royster has been patient in picking his spots behind an improving offensive line. Though the non-conference schedule lacked any punch, the Nittany Lions defense has only surrendered more than 17 points once. Penn State is 6-0 ATS after consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last two seasons.

After the home team had covered nine in a row in this series, the visiting club has covered two in a row. Here’s an absolutely insane angle, The Jo Pa’s are 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who allow 12 or less points a game. (Iowa was one such team at the time)

3DW Line – Penn State by 6.5

Oregon (-7, 48.5) at Stanford 3:30E FSN

This is the absolute perfect setup for Stanford (5-3 SU&ATS) to pull the upset in Pac-10 play. The Cardinal is off a home game vanquishing of Arizona State and enjoyed a bye week to get healthy in preparation for Oregon, who is in first place all alone in the conference. The Ducks are off exhilarating USC home triumph and have to gather themselves quickly for the most physical team in the Pac-10. The Stanford game plan will be to bludgeon Oregon with RB Toby Gerhart and if successful, this sets up play-action passes for redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck. Gerhart’s pounding style is like body blows and later in a game; tackler’s might be less inclined to take punishment. Luck has shown ability to complete passes all over the field and has deft touch on in-and-out fade routes. Stanford is 12-5 ATS against Top 10 teams.

Oregon’s offense attracts a great deal of attention and deservedly so, but what has made this team special is a Top 20 team defense that forces a large number of negative plays. The Ducks (7-1, 6-2 ATS) have powerful players in the defensive line that have excellent quickness and speed throughout the entire defense to limit big plays. QB Jeremiah Masoli makes the run-based spread option work and his throwing accuracy has been distinguished for most of the season. Freshman LaMichael James has been stabilizing spoke in the wheel to make Oregon’s run offense work, with ability to make tackler’s miss with his cutting ability. The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in consecutive contests.

Oregon has captured the Cardinal, winning eight of last nine, with 7-2 ATS mark. The Ducks have plenty to quack about with 6-1 ATS record at Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 12-1 ATS since Oregon’s last visit to Stanford Stadium, including 11 straight covers.

3DW Line – Oregon by 4.5

Houston (-1.5, 67.5) at Tulsa 7:30E CBSC

Though both Houston and Tulsa lost to UTEP, this is momentous matchup in the Conference USA West Division. The best the loser can likely hope for is minor bowl bid, with the winner still in contention to capture division crown. The Cougars (7-1, 6-1 ATS) are the most talented team in the league and they have wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State to prove it. Coach Kevin Sumlin has done exceptional work in keeping Houston focused week to week and QB Case Keenum is precise dart thrower leading the Cougs attack. The defense has picked up lately, forcing more turnovers and more three and outs. Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.

Besides trying to make third consecutive appearance in C-USA championship game, Tulsa (4-4, 4-3 ATS) also has another motive, revenge. Last season, after suffering first loss of year at Arkansas 30-23, a down Golden Hurricane team at 8-1, ran into a hot Houston club, who smoked them 70-30. That left a raw mark on the returning Tulsa players and guaranteed coach Todd Graham has had the number 70 and box score’s strategically displayed for a constant reminder all week. The Tulsa offensive line must have standup effort as quarterback G.J. Kinne has seen more pressure in the pocket against more advanced competition. Keeping focus shouldn’t be an issue, since this is the first of three challenging league conflicts with East Carolina and at Southern Miss on tap. Tulsa has to move the pigskin and is 9-2 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

These teams have only been together in this conference four years, with Houston having 3-1 SU and ATS edge. Dating back further, the underdog is 5-1 ATS. Tough to figure total, with Cougars 8-0 OVER off a home win and Tulsa 7-0-1 UNDER in 2009.

3DW Line – Houston by 5

Connecticut (+17, 51.5) at Cincinnati 8:00 E ABC/GP

Cincinnati’s unexpected odyssey continues when they host a caustic Connecticut club. The Bearcats stand at 8-0 and 6-2 ATS after smashing Syracuse 28-7 and can write their ticket if they keep winning. Before being injured, quarterback Tony Pike was having marvelous campaign, with his name being tossed around in Heisman conversations. His injury ended that talk and he hopes to be ready starting this week for season-ending push. In his place backup Zach Collaros has filled in magnificently. In spite of one defensive starter returning and changing schemes to 3-4 defense, the athletes that were in waiting have been tremendous, with Cincy among the leaders in the country for tackles for loss. Color these Cats successful with 14-4 ATS Big East record under coach Brian Kelly.

Ask any Big East coach, their least favorite opponent is Connecticut (4-4). The Huskies may lack in the talent department compared to other teams, but they will earn the highest marks in preparation under coach Randy Edsall and almost never relent. This year’s team has made the one or two critical mistakes in suffering four losses (7-1 ATS). The offense is playing more consistent and UConn has more playmakers at the skill positions than ever before. One staple missing is the typical Huskies defense, which has surrendered over 26 points per game in league action. All season against better competition, Connecticut has struggled on third down defense. These Huskies are 5-12 as conference underdogs.

Cincinnati was clobbered at Connecticut 40-16 as three-point favorites last season and would relish the opportunity for payback. The home team is 3-1 SU and ATS, with the underdog having covered three of four since the Bearcats joined the Big East. Cincy is 7-0 ATS off two straight wins by 17 or more points since 2007.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11

Oklahoma (-4.5, 42.5) at Nebraska 8:00E ABC/GP

Remember when this contest used to be one of the premier games each and every year? Since the formulation of the Big 12 in 1996, these former intense competitors now meet every three years, playing home and away. Last season, Oklahoma (5-3, 3-4-1 ATS) blasted Nebraska 62-28 as 21-point home favorites. The Cornhuskers are the host this time around and are thankful for the opportunity the Sooners provided, knocking off Kansas State last week 42-30. The last two games in Lincoln have been disastrous for Nebraska (5-3 SU&ATS), tripping up against Texas Tech 31-10 and committing a school-record eight turnovers in 9-7 loss to Iowa State, including four inside the Cyclones five-yard line. Quarterback Zac Lee has not played well versus stiffer completion and lost his job to Cody Green. The freshman will have to go against dauntless Oklahoma defense. The Huskers 6-1 ATS as conference home underdogs.

Oklahoma has no major bowl bid in its future, but that won’t stop a Bob Stoops team from playing hard and giving its all. With the team officially under the direction of signal caller Landry Jones, it’s about moving the chains and finding a rhythm and creating snowball effect. Jones hits a couple of passes and a running back rips off 12-yard run, suddenly the Sooners are in business and rolling. After a few misgivings about the defense’s desire to dominate, they have answered every question since loss to Miami. Oklahoma might not win the Big 12 South; nonetheless they will try to make sure Texas knows they better not screw up. The Sooners are 16-1 and 12-5 ATS vs. the Big 12 North the last five years.

In the last six meetings, the Sooners are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS. The home team is 9-5 ATS dating back 20 years.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 11

Boise State tries to impress voters

This is the first of three games Boise State has on prime time Friday’s to convince BCS voters they deserve to move back up in the standings and keep fingers crossed those ahead of them falter in the coming weeks. This might be the last chance for the Broncos to be beaten during the regular season, down in Ruston, LA at Joe Aillet Stadium.

Boise State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) still has Idaho and Nevada, both of whom are having good seasons, however those games are at Bronco Stadium. Though Boise State was never specifically challenged in road games at Fresno State and Tulsa, they had to play the full 60 minutes in each case to secure victory. If quarterback Kellen Moore continues to play at such a high rate of efficiency (24 TD’s-to-2 picks ratio), the Broncos will be nearly impossible to stop, especially with its Top 10 defense. The Broncos’ backers could almost be accused of peculation with Boise’s 35-18 ATS record as WAC favorites of 10 or more.

This is Louisiana Tech’s only home game in five week period and what an opponent to match up with. At least incentive should not be an issue, especially before the home fans. The Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season and 9-1 (6-2 ATS) since last facing Boise State on their own turf.

To have chance for the upset, Louisiana Tech (3-5, 3-4 ATS) has to have quarterback Ross Jenkins play at an extremely high level. His backup, redshirt freshman Colby Cameron, is also expected to see playing time, as he has impressed the coaches in recent weeks. Running back Daniel Porter and receiver Phillip Livas were both injured last week against Idaho and are game time decisions. The defense needs to force stops and create chaos against normally composed Broncos. Having Boise State being unmotivated wouldn’t hurt.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Louisiana Tech as 21-point underdogs with total of 50. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs under coach Derek Dooley and 4-1 ATS hosting Boise State. However, since 2002, Louisiana Tech 4-15 ATS vs ranked squads.

Boise State has more good numbers than George Clooney’s cell phone for dating purposes. The Broncos are 14-3-1 ATS the last two seasons and are 8-1 ATS on the road. When everything is clicking, Boise State is 14-3 ATS after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games, with winning margin of 28.5 points per game.

Look for this WAC dispute on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern, with Boise State 11-2 UNDER in November road games.

A Thursday of Action

Certainly have had run into some tough luck as Eddie’s pick losses by a point for 1-2 day. Let’s see if we can turn this jalopy around and have top notch college system for tonight that is 85.7 percent, with bonus information. The Top Trend is going against the hottest road team in the NHL, but hard to argue with 17-2. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – Though I was sort of rooting for the Phillies, I had no problem with the Yankees being champs. While some small-minded people will use the argument that they paid for the World Series, I say good for them. Answer me this, how would you like to work for an organization that has an incredible desire to succeed? (I will use the caveat of at the expense of hurting others for personal gain). The Yankees had a plan and executed it.

I feel a little bad about today’s system, since I have warm spot in my heart for NIU in DeKalb, IL. It was the city of my future (and still existing) bride’s and I first date.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY Against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Northern Illinois off a home win, who has a win percentage of 60-80 percent, playing a terrible team with win percentage below 25 percent. Since 2005, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent. (Bonus-The home team is also 0-8 ATS in this series)

Free Hockey Trend-2) I know the NHL angle lost the other day; however this one is awfully potent. The L.A. Kings are 17-2 ATS after playing a game where eight or more total goals were scored.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Randy of the LCC has San Antonio as a winner tonight.

Grab Paul Buck’s Thursday Thunder in Guaranteed College Football action. He’s on 11-3 run on side and totals.

The Platinum Sheet is stuffed with winning information and picks.

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Can Pirates steal a win from Hokies?

East Carolina is in the driver’s seat in the C-USA East Division and takes a brief pause to try for second straight upset of Virginia Tech on their home turf. The Pirates have been off since Oct. 27, after mauling Memphis 38-19 and likes the direction the offense has gone in being more productive. In East Carolina’s last two games, they have averaged 478 yards per outing, be it against far weaker competition than Virginia Tech.

Quarterback Patrick Pinkney is at his best when the Pirates (5-3, 3-4 ATS) have a lead or are within one score when trailing. Pinkney is a dissonant thrower of the football and a far better game manager than playing the role of Captain Comeback. East Carolina is 7-3 in last 10 games at Dody-Ficklen Stadium. (Couldn’t possibly make up that name)

Virginia Tech (5-3, 3-5 ATS) is in unfamiliar territory. It’s the first week of November and they have nothing to really play for other than improving overall record to save face and avoid 2003 campaign that finished with 8-5 record and Insight Bowl loss to California. Bookmaker.com has Hokies as 13-point favorites with total of 52, which is a dangerous number for a potentially unmotivated road fave. This is the first of two road games for Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS as visiting favorites the last five seasons.

Virginia Tech assistant coaches are coming under fire in Blacksburg. Offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring has been in hot water for some time and has in own website (http://firebryanstinespring. com/). Hokies’ fans haven’t liked his conservative game plans and vent their frustration towards him. Even Bud Foster’s defensive prowess is being attacked in Hokies’ blogs, with defense being abused for 180 or more yards on the ground in half of Virginia Tech’s games. They are hard to comprehend 79th in the country against the rush and 3-8-1 ATS in non-conference encounters.

East Carolina’s best chance is to bottle Hokies running game (allowing 108 YPG) and make them throwing team. QB Tyrod Taylor has made great strides as a passer and Pirates secondary is not going to discourage any team from throwing against them (103rd), however as witnessed last Thursday, the junior signal caller is not polished when slinging from the pocket. Since knocking of Virginia Tech and West Virginia to start the 2008 season, East Carolina is 0-5 SU and ATS in most recent non-league matches.

Even with last week’s upset, Frank Beamer’s club is still 14-4 ATS on Thursday’s and 8-2 ATS in November.

Though the bigger goal is winning another C-USA title, it will be festive atmosphere in Greenville, with ECU looking to take down a vulnerable Hokies bunch. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS when catching 10.5 or more points and coach Skip Holtz will have them in a frenzy. East Carolina is 5-9 SU all-time against Virginia Tech and has covered only twice in last six meetings.

ESPN will provide the coverage at 7:45 Eastern, with the Hokies on 11-0 UNDER run on Thursday nights.

NBA Thursday Hoops

With the New York Yankees champions of baseball for a 27th time and college basketball and NFL Thursday games starting next week, the NBA has a rather uncluttered sports marketplace for its televised doubleheader on TNT. Take a gander at tonight’s matchups and key betting information.

Chicago at Cleveland 8:00E

The idea behind bring in Shaquille O’Neal was to have greater inside presence and be able to contain Orlando’s Dwight Howard and Boston’s big men once the playoffs started. Cleveland coach Mike Brown new it would take time for all the pieces to mesh together, but Cavaliers fans expected everything to work from day one. After the Cavs (3-2, 2-3 ATS) lost first two games, Cleveland talk radio was alive, wondering what was wrong. Since then, cooler heads have prevailed and the Cavaliers will be going after fourth straight win this season. Coach Brown is defensive-minded and while the offense has not sorted out completely, his club is 11-2 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s.

Chicago (2-2, 1-3 ATS) is a .500 team, in spite of horrible offensive start. The Bulls are shooting 40.9 percent from the field (27th), making only 22.2 percent from behind the arc (29th) and are dreadful 69.9 percent (27th) from the charity stripe. Despite all iron clanging, they trailed Milwaukee at home by 18 points in the third quarter and roared back to win 83-81. Chicago is integrating Luol Deng back into the lineup after missing the last quarter of the season and playoffs with leg stress fracture.

Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as 10.5-point favorite, with total of 187.5. The Cavs are 9-2 SU and ATS against Chicago in last 11 meetings and they are 15-5 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite. The Bulls will look to be a pesky underdog and they are 7-2-1 ATS when catching 5 to 10.5 points as visiting pooch.

San Antonio at Utah 10:30 E

The San Antonio Spurs (2-1 SU&ATS) in the offseason set out to get younger and more athletic up and down the roster, without altering its three core players. The too early to tell results have the Spurs scoring 113 points twice in three games, which is a dramatic shift. The most important acquisition was Richard Jefferson, giving San Antonio a wing player that adds versatility. Keeping Manu Ginobili as healthy as possible is imperative, since he’s a great scoring option off the bench and clutch fourth quarter scorer. The 19-point victory over Sacramento on Halloween means the Spurs are rested, however just 3-13-1 ATS after a double digit triumph.

Utah (1-3 SU&ATS) will try to avoid its slowest start in seven seasons. The Jazz appeared set to be .500, but were outscored 44-18 at Dallas in the fourth quarter, as they had no answer for Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 29 of his 40 points in the last 12 minutes, handing Utah a 96-85 avalanche-like loss.

Utah’s resolve will be tested as 1.5-point home underdogs with total of 199.5. The Jazz are 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread, but are just 5-18 ATS as underdogs. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS at Utah in last seven tries; however the favorite covers 75 percent of the time (21-7) when these two Western Conference squads collide.

Set'em for Wednesday

Another lousy day, thanks to Tampa Bay winning in overtime of all things. Let’s move on to superb NHL system that is 86.1 percent tonight. The Pacers from Indiana are not in the best situation according to today’s Top Trend. Eddie’s given us two winners; will he make it three in a row? Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday – Atlanta completed a night of comeback victories in the NBA by overcoming a 12-point Trail Blazers lead to win in Portland, 97-91. (Portland possessed a 33-21 lead in the second quarter.) Atlanta's victory was the fifth of the night by an NBA team that overcame a deficit of at least a dozen points. Earlier, Cleveland came from 18 points down to defeat Washington; Chicago overcame a 13-point deficit to beat Milwaukee; Phoenix came from 12 points back to win in Miami; and Dallas rebounded from 16 points behind to outlast Utah. It's the first day on which at least five winning teams overcame deficits of 12-or-more points since last November 14, when five teams also did it. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Florida off a road blowout win by three goals or more, playing with three or more days rest. Over the last five years this system is 31-5, 86.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Indiana Pacers are 1-10 ATS in road games after two straight contests attempting 10 or less free throws than opponent over the last three seasons.

Free Pick -3) Eddie's on the Lakers to cash another winner on his 11-2 NBA run-out.

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CFB Teams to Wager On in November

The last month of the college football season separates the contenders from the pretenders. This is the time where the best teams go and secure conference titles, while those with weakness are found to be fraudulent and meekly fall to the wayside. Teams that have has poor years will often be roughed up by better squads as coaches look to underclassmen seeking better results the following year.

In a black and white world, November should tell us who the best teams are and who are not, yet sports bettors understand all too well about that’s not how it works. In 2007, LSU won a national championship, covering one game from the end of September until defeating Ohio State 38-24 as four-point favorites in the BCS title tilt. In November, if it’s possible, it will likely happen.

Here is the complete list of teams that have good or bad track records is the sports craziest month.

*The Baylor Bears have really missed QB Robert Griffin. The offense has stagnated and the defense is not strong enough to compensate. The Bears are 0-20 and 6-13-1 ATS on the November road and have dates at Missouri and at Texas A&M.

*Hard to surmise presently if coach Dan Hawkins is returning, however Colorado backers would just fine if he could carry on lasting tradition of fielding decent football squad. The Buffalos are 24-12 ATS this month and will have say in who wins the Big 12 North.

*If Houston survives trips to Tulsa and Central Florida, they are still in line to win the C-USA West. Their last two games are at home against Memphis and Rice; however this has been a squad that doesn’t always have the binoculars in focus, telling the tale of 7-12 ATS home record late in the season.

*Iowa State has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 football title of any kind. In 2004, they lost to Missouri in overtime 17-14, to see another chance dissipate. They are competing this season for the North Division crown and it could come down to road game at Missouri. A 1-10 and 3-8 ATS road mark is not encouraging.

*Kansas won at Oklahoma State in November of 2007 on the way to Orange Bowl berth. Beyond that triumph, the history is gloomier than the Kansas weather this time of year with 2-31SU and 9-24 ATS record on the road or at neutral sites.

*Kent State’s has enjoyed one winning season in the last two decades (2001 at 6-5). The Golden Flashes could have another if they don’t fall prey to the ghosts of November’s past, which has spooked them, having 5-23 and 9-19 ATS mark.

*Mentioned LSU earlier, is any other top line program have a more sickly spread record at home than the Tigers at 5-20 ATS? The answer is no, with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas paying a visit to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

*Dating back to the days of Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich, Marshall always had a severe home field edge. Those days have passed, yet the Thundering Herd still has bettors running to the cash out window with 17-4 and 14-5 ATS record in November home games.

*This will not go down as one of Memphis University’s better football teams. They still have three enormously difficult road clashes at Tennessee, Houston and Tulsa. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be catching a truckload of points and are 10-1 ATS away from Memphis this month, on 6-0 spread run.

*Middle Tennessee State had freakish schedule this season. The first four of five bouts were on the road, followed by next five of six at Murfreesboro. Their last contest of the year is at UL-Monroe and they are 3-7 ATS in the 11th month of the year dressed as visitors.

*Nebraska’s fine season has recently taken a wrong turn. Coach Bo Pelini is attempting to get the Cornhuskers back on the track, but with 6-10-1 ATS road record since 1999. With trips to Kansas and Colorado, it might not happen.

*Coach Tom O’Brien has a history of his teams being a finisher, be it at Boston College or now at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have three home games and road excursion to Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS on the November road.

*Ohio University is the ninth oldest public university in the United States and Fox News CEO Roger Ailes majored in radio and television while attending the Athens school of hirer learning. The Bobcats are also becoming known for 10-5 spread figure at Peden Stadium and will have two chances to improve that number.

*Oklahoma State has multiple personalities this month. At Stillwater, the Cowboys are a handful, sporting a 12-4-2 ATS record. When wearing the road whites, not nearly as potent or intimidating, covering five times in last 19 tries (5-13-1). Two home games and two road tilts await Okie State.

*It’s not the good old days at Texas A&M, seeking magic formula that made them regular participant in the best of bowls in the 1990’s. Besides the cool tradition of the 12th man in Aggie-land, Texas A&M is 11-4-2 ATS at Kyle Field to close the season. Baylor and huge rival Texas will both pay a visit.

*With the oddsmakers attempting to make it harder and harder to bet on USC this time of year, the Trojans still persevere and are 20-5 ATS. Of note, since moving last game to December, Pete Carroll’s team has failed to cover the last three played.

*You know the Allstate commercial, with the butler ready to serve the two guys tailgating and Bergwood says he doesn’t want the sauce with the steak tartar? After the butler rolls his eyes, the other guy says sarcastically “Really?” That’s the same reaction people have when they learn Utah State is 7-1 ATS in November the last two seasons.

*As it turns out, Virginia and Oklahoma State have a lot in common. The Cavaliers are miserable 7-19 ATS as visitors; however at Scott Stadium they are 12-6 ATS. Of the four remaining games, they are evenly split home and away for Virginia in 2009.

*Virginia Tech is very solid anywhere under coach Frank Beamer. They are 18-9-1 in Blacksburg in the final month of the season and they will have N.C. State paying a visit in the final home game for outgoing senior class.

*Wake Forest used to known as the Tigers, but in the 1920’s, the football team was known for "devilish play and fighting spirit." and the name stuck with Deacons added. Right now the Demon Deacons are devilish to wagering accounts with 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS chronicled account as road team.

*Washington State actually went to the Rose Bowl in 2003, but the Cougars have turned into playful cats with a 4-12 ATS mark the last several seasons. Games at Arizona and Washington and home contests with UCLA and Oregon State don’t figure to change this unbecoming trend.

In the last four years, the Wyoming Cowboys have been knocked off their saddle with 3-11 and 2-12 ATS record in November. With home games against BYU and TCU and at improving San Diego State, plus Colorado State, hope doesn’t spring eternal.

World Series Game 6 Questions and Answers

Tonight either the New York Yankees win a 27th World Series or are pushed to a deciding Game 7. The beauty of a series is it evolves and takes on a life of its own, which is particularly true in baseball since every game involves two new starting pitchers that alter the dynamics from game to game. For the baseball bettor that means breaking the contest down into components in order to pick the right side or total. Here are Game 6’s most pressing questions.

Can Andy Pettitte pitch effectively on three days’ rest?

This is the leading mystery coming into this confrontation and even Pettitte admits he has no idea how his arm will react. When asked what it’s like to throw on short rest, Pettitte responded, “Man, I don't even remember the last time I went on three days' rest,"

In fact, it was September 30, 2006, when still a member of the Houston Astros. The left-hander is not an excitable type and will likely focus his attention on breaking pitches and off-speed stuff if the fastball isn’t up to typical standards. Pettitte is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 14 career starts on three days' rest. With more adrenaline pumping in the playoffs, he is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on short rest. Sportsbook.com has New York as -200 money line favorites. With Pettitte on the mound, his record is 36-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Manager Joe Girardi better hope this works tonight, otherwise he will be facing the critics before tomorrow’s Game 7 with Burnett and Pettitte both failing in using this pitching strategy.

What’s that cool breeze?

Every year different player’s end up having struggles in the playoffs or World Series and right now two guys are in the heart of each team’s lineup. Mark Teixeira is batting below .200 in the Fall Classic and has been fanned 16 times since postseason action commenced. His body language suggests he’s pressing, swinging harder after each strike. New York could use his normally potent bat to wrap up this series, since he contributed to Yankees 60-23 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Ryan Howard’s timing couldn’t be more off. His swing mechanics are a mess and he’s tied the World Series record for strikeouts with 13, with at least one more game to go. What makes hitting so intriguing is Howard could come up in the first inning and hit a soft liner the other way, just over Derek Jeter’s head and suddenly start sending rockets all around Yankee Stadium. Given Philadelphia is such a large underdog; his big bat could take the Phillies to 12-3 in road games after three or more consecutive home games this season.

How does manager Charley Manuel use Pedro Martinez?

Give Martinez credit, in two playoff starts he’s allowed three runs in 13 innings, striking out 11 and walking just two. Though the radar gun seldom sees 90 anymore, Pedro still struts around the mound like a peacock, acting like he owns the place. Look for Yankees hitters to be more patient this time and not be as inclined to swing at off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. It would be in Manuel’s best interest to start getting a pitcher ready once Martinez goes thru the batting order once, since he doesn’t have enough heat to keep New York batters honest and not sitting on off-speed tosses.

How cool is it right now to be Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

For both these hitters, they are as ESPN’s Stewart Scott would say, “cool as the other side of the pillow”. They are working pitchers until they make the slightest mistake and rocketing shots like they are seeing batting practice speed beach balls. Each is capable of winning a game single-handily with the way they are swinging. Will Utley raise the Phillies playoff record to 21-8 the last two years and force a Game 7 or does A-Rod drop an “A-Bomb” (Yankees radio announcer John Sterling call) and New York is champion yet again and finishes the year 39-11 as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

What was learned from Game 5 that could determine winner for tonight?

The most important factor for the sports bettor is the OVER could well hit a fourth straight game. The first two contests of the World Series saw rested starting pitchers going deep in games, for a pair of Under’s. Since then, the two most power-laden team in the big leagues have hit homers in smallish parks against relief pitchers who have resembled an interleague matchup of the Orioles and Nationals.

If you take Mariano Rivera out of the equation, if either team trails buy almost any margin, they have to feel they can comeback against two bullpens short on getting outs quickly.

Election Day Nov. 3

A crummy 1-2 day left something to be desired, though the football game was certainly entertaining. On Tuesday we have a Best System that is 23-4 against the spread in the NBA. We also have a 95 percent NHL trend loaded for today. Eddie’s Free Play on the way. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought today – Talked to Paul Buck last night as he was lamenting his Totals loss (thanks to those who purchased by the way) on the Monday night game. While I’m the first to agree you can never handicap turnovers for touchdowns, I explained to him he was lucky the kickers missed at least two very makeable field goals. Besides it wasn’t like either team was really stopping the other. I did feel his pain (and yours also), as we’ve all been in that spot more times than we can count.

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Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Indiana off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, if this team had a losing record last season. The record stands at 23-4 ATS, 85.4 percent.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Tampa Bay Lightning are 1-19 against the money line in road games after scoring two goals or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Pick -3) Eddie of the LCC has Dallas Mavs as his Best Bet for Tuesday.

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A Tuesday MAC Attack

MAC East Division combatants do business on Tuesday night on a nationally televised cable contest. Neither Bowling Green (3-5 SU& ATS) nor Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) are going anywhere this season, mired in the lower dwellings of the MAC. This is especially painful for Buffalo coming off a league championship season and bowl game.

The Bulls are team that lives on the edge. Last season half of Buffalo’s 14 games were decided by six points or less and they were 4-3. In 2009, five of their games have come down to seven or less points and they are 2-3. Buffalo’s offense has to be more productive in the red zone. The Bulls are second in the MAC in total offense at 410.9 yards per game, but are a pedestrian eighth in points scored at 23.1. Buffalo needs to put up points and are 12-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

The Bulls have a terrific receiving trio in Naaman Roosevelt, the best receiver in school history, along with wideout Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack. What’s killing Buffalo is -7 turnover margin and a secondary loaded with backups due to injury.

Bowling Green had their two game winning streak snapped by Central Michigan in last outing. The 343 yards passing only netted 10 points, as they finished with 20 net yards rushing, which has been the story of their season. The Falcons do prefer to throw the ball; nonetheless having the worst running game in the country at 61.6 yards per game at 2.3 yards per carry has to be unacceptable.

That places all the pressure on quarterback Tyler Sheehan and receiver Freddie Barnes. Sheehan has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions and nine touchdowns. Passing teams always have a chance to cover and Bowling Green is 9-2 AT in road games over the last two seasons.

The Falcons defense allows 210.6 yards per game on the ground against teams that only average 145 YPG, making them a porous group. Buffalo’s Ike Nduka has become a solid runner after they lost standout running back James Starks before the year began. Bowling Green is 1-5 SU and ATS this season when they allow a back to run for 100 or more yards.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as 3.5-point favorite with total of 53.5. This will be just the second time the Bulls have been a favorite this season and they are 3-4 ATS all-time as MAC home favorites. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS as conference road underdogs since 2001, however 8-1 ATS as visiting dogs over the last three seasons.

ESPN2 has this MAC matchup at 7 Eastern, with the mission for each squad to win remaining last four games and possibly snag a bowl bid with 7-5. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in four meetings with Bowling Green since joining the league is 1999, with the visitor having covered three in a row.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It’s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy’s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack’s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.

Monday Action at 3Daily Winners

We were whacked upside the head really good with a 0-4 NFL day, that definitely left a mark. However we take the trend loss as anomaly since two kickoff returns had nothing to do with the angle itself. Nonetheless a loss is a loss. Our Best System is from Monday Night football article. We have a NBA Top Trend to follow on a team that has yet to win a game and this angle is 77.7 percent in their favor. Good Luck

Answer this week’s latest Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – In watching the proceedings yesterday, not sure who is dumber Charley Manuel or Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy? Upon further review, have to go with Manuel, since at least McCarthy tried to do something, be in 37 minutes into the game.

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Free Football System-1) Read Monday Night article, but be super careful with huge line shift.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The New Jersey Nets are 14-4 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds since last season and outscore opposition by 2.4 points per game in this spot.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Sacramento Kings are Eddie's play from the LCC. He's 6-2 to start the NBA season.

Grab Paul Buck’s Guaranteed NFL Monday Night Magic Pick. He was 5-2 yesterday and 6-2 on Monday night’s.

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"Anybody seen Charley?"

Yankees manager Joe Girardi has been accused of micromanaging at different points throughout the postseason. Whether that point is true or not is debatable, but it is certainly more than what Charley Manuel has done for Philadelphia. Manuel is an old school-type, letting player’s work through difficult situations, so that next time they will be better prepared having experienced the rough parts.

The problem with that mentality is it’s the World Series, Charley. The time when you play for all the marbles, you remember, you brought home the trophy last season. Since Game 2, the Phillies haven’t looked like themselves. Errors in the field, mental blunders, lack of clutch hitting and bullpen issues that just won’t go away.

In Game 4, Manuel should have come out of the dugout, after Johnny Damon ran all the way to third base on a steal and Phillies fielding miscue in the top of the ninth of a 4-4 contest. Even if he was not inclined to do so initially, it would have absolutely necessary after Brad Lidge nailed Mark Teixeira. With Lidge having not pitched in 12 days, the game on the line, a calming influence of a manager to settle everything down, discuss how to pitch to Alex Rodriquez and play ball again.

Instead nothing. Catcher Carlos Ruiz became too conservative calling for fastballs, fearing Lidge’s slider might bounce in the dirt and get away and went after A-Rod with his second best pitch. As ESPN’s Bobby Valentine correctly pointed out after the game, if a catcher, pitcher and ultimately the manager are too afraid to let a pitcher throw his best pitch in fear of the catcher might have a passed ball, maybe the wrong catcher is in the game, since those are fundamental plays worked on March.

A-Rod ripped a single to left for the lead run and Jorge Posada crushed a double to left-center to build 7-4 lead and Manuel never left his dugout post.

Now Manuel has to turn to Cliff Lee and hope he can continue torrid postseason pitching streak. Philadelphia has won all four of Lee’s playoff starts as he’s allowed two earned runs in 33.3 innings. Since the left-hander put on a Phillies uniform, his team is 12-4.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Lee and Phillies as -149 money line favorites, with total of Un8.5. Philadelphia knows their margin for error is eliminated and they’ve won 34 of last 46 home games as favorites. Like all teams that have played the Yankees in the postseason, Philly players are commenting, they aren’t playing their best. Do you think the opponent has something to do with that?

New York is going to ride this three day pitching thing until they can no longer. A.J. Burnett has talked all season long about feeding off CC Sabathia and now is his chance. Burnett can be the pitcher that closes out opponent for the Yankees 27th World Series title. The Yankees are 51-22 after two or more consecutive wins this season and Burnett is 34-15 when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons. (Team's record)

FOX will have Game 5 at 7:57 Eastern, with Burnett 4-20 (Team’s record) as a road underdog of +125 to +150 in his career, however he’s never had a group like this to support him.

“Who Dat?” NFL Sports Bettors Know

The New Orleans Saints are one of two unbeaten teams remaining in the National Football League and are 6-0. They have built a two game lead in the NFC South without playing a single division contest. That will change on Monday Night at the Superdome when they welcome second place Atlanta.

The Saints and Falcons have long played a competitive and entertaining head-to-head series. Each division in football has their rivalries. Most are regional in nature and in the South; nothing is bigger for professional football fans than this matchup. The stakes are higher than ever with both teams legitimate playoff contenders and possibly more.

In the early years, Atlanta was the dominate player and still leads the all-time series 45-35, however in the last few seasons, New Orleans has had the better of it winning five of six with four covers.

The term “Big Easy” would be an accurate description of how Drew Brees and company have piled up the yards and points. The Saints offense has totaled a league-high 427.3 yards per game, averaging 39.7 points per game. The scary part is they have done it every way imaginable. New Orleans has passed for over 350 yards against Detroit and the New York Giants and run the ball down the throats of Buffalo for 222 yards. Last week, after being severely gashed by Miami in trailing 24-3 on the road, all they did was outscore the Dolphins 43-10 the last 31 minutes of the game. The Saints have covered all their games this season and are 6-0 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored.

This is a big game for Atlanta who is 4-2, with matching spread record. Quarterback Matt Ryan has done a good job in his second season, with the Falcons averaging 24 points per game against teams that have allowed 21.3 PPG. Atlanta has stuck with the running game at 28 carries per game, however is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Astute football followers could see this coming since running backs like Michael Turner who carry the ball over 350 times in a season, typically see a fall in yards per carry by more than a half a yard the next year. Last season 4.5 YPC for Turner, thus far 3.4.

Atlanta’s defense is very dependent on the pass rush, since they pass a soft Cover 2 to protect their mediocre cornerbacks. The Falcons are 27th against the pass (250.7), which is bad fit for New Orleans offense and its multiple weapons. They were abused by Dallas for 37 points and 414 total yards and are 25-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.

The wagering public loves teams that score points and make this team the only football game on television, it’s not hard to figure what way the public will bet, especially at home. Sportsbook.com opened New Orleans as 8.5-point favorites and by Sunday morning, the money had been pouring in raising them to 12.

The Falcons will be looking to snap a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in divisional road games and this will be their fourth road contest in last five encounters. The unbeaten Saints are comfortable at home where they’ve won eight of their last nine games ATS. In the last nine meetings between these two clubs in New Orleans, six have gone UNDER the total. The total of 56 is worth following depending on point of view, since the Saints are 11-3 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game and Atlanta is 12-4 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.

The Falcons cover if Turner or other Atlanta running backs find some explosiveness, sorely lacking thus far. Miami showed for a half how you beat New Orleans, by being physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Controlling the line on offense keeps the Saints offense on the sidelines. Atlanta’s defense has to take away something, stop the New Orleans running game to at least force them to play one way. Gap discipline is vital and tackling effective is crucial. In the passing game, Brees has liked to go to Jeremy Shockey early, negate his catches. Matt Ryan has to look off Darren Sharper effectively, as he is smart and has great instincts in getting to the ball, work him underneath with Tony Gonzalez to keep him occupied.

The Saints cover if they play their game and don’t become too anxious before a big TV audience and facing a NFC South rival. Coach Sean Payton has been aggressive as play-caller and cut down on the razzle-dazzle. Brees is playing smart football and letting the game come to him, not forcing the action. He will however attack the Atlanta secondary on all three levels. The Saints are 11th in total defense and could stop Birds running game. Ryan is an accurate thrower, but not when forced to throw on every down. The Saints know their good and play hard for 60 minutes, something seldom seen in these parts. Monday night home favorites of nine or more on are 15-5 ATS run.

Monday Night System – Play On a home team facing an opponent that allowed 35 or more points in last contest. (18-4 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Sunday NFL Contributions

Overall a 2-2 CFB Saturday, with San Diego State a major disappointment not covering against a New Mexico that had not won a game and had beaten them 70-7 the previous season. Anyways, on to the NFL and Bill goes for a second Free Winner, calling for the upset. The Top Trend is in the AFC East and the Best System has lost once in 20 years! Good Luck

You’ve voted Indianapolis as the unbeaten team most likely to make it to Super Bowl, for this week’s poll question, thanks.

What I thought yesterday – I don’t recall off hand a team having a quarterback throwing five interceptions winning a game, let alone covering a 17-point spread like Iowa did.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a non-conference home team the defeated a non-conference opponent by 21 or more points in last game. Over the last two decades this system is 12-1-1 ATS, 92.3 percent including 2-0 this year. The Colts are such a team.

Free Football Trend-2) The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 150 or more rushing yards per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Bill of the Left Coast Connection has Buffalo as his top selection this day.

Paul Buck Guaranteed NFL Winner Sunday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

Week 8 NFL Options

The schedule might be on the light side again this week, nevertheless meaningful NFL action will be conducted. Who doesn’t want to see Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay and it is made all the more interesting with the Packers favored and they could nearly tie Minnesota for first place in the NFC North. It’s Game 1 of day/night doubleheader for New York at Philadelphia, with the first contest on the gridiron. Denver places its perfect record on the line in Baltimore and the Jets look to build on last week 38-0 shutdown hosting Miami. Seeing it’s a Halloween weekend, thought going a little macabre and discuss the merits of the Rams and Lions contest.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX

If Philadelphia (4-2 SU&ATS) is to make a statement in the NFC East in 2009, the next two games will be the turning point. With home games vs. the Giants and Dallas on tap, the Eagles have a real chance to make themselves a factor. History might be on their side for this week’s game if the line remains the same, as underdogs have dominated the Philadelphia-New York series of late, going 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. With injuries to key Philadelphia offensive personnel, Donovan McNabb and Eagles fans will try and lift the team to 9-3 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field. The Giants are 5-2 SU and ATS after losing to Arizona and continue a brutal schedule that will take them all the way through January. They are 21-12 ATS in divisional games under coach Tom Coughlin and have coved 10 of last 12 on the road.

Keys to the Game-

The Giants have lost two in a row, not getting enough of a pass rush and secondary being exposed due to injuries. Making McNabb as uncomfortable as possible has to be defensive goal. Another is limiting the chances for explosive DeSean Jackson to beat them. Punter Jeff Feagles has to directional kick accurately and for reasonable distance, something he failed to do last week. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS after playing a game at home and Eli Manning has to rediscover accuracy. When he’s as off-target as he’s been the last two weeks, it’s usually because he strays from fundamentals.

At last check, coach Andy Reid doesn’t need an invitation to throw the pass, look for him to test the Giants secondary, expect numerous three and four-receivers sets. Brian Westbrook won’t play, which means rookie LeSean McCoy has to be prepared, but not be anxious. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night and will be taking calculated risk the Giants pass rush won’t get McNabb. If it does, Philly coaches will have to make quick in-game adjustments.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Giants -1, 44.5

St. Louis at Detroit 1:00E FOX

The nice thing about games like St. Louis-Detroit is that the oddsmakers still post betting lines on them. Oh, and also, one of the clubs will get a confidence boosting win. These have been the two worst NFC teams for the past several years, but haven’t gone head-to-head since 2006 when the Rams (0-7, 2-5 ATS) won a 41-34 affair as 5.5-point favorites. The Lions (1-5, 2-4 ATS) will be a rare home favorite, the first such instance since December 2007 in fact. Including that SU win/ATS loss vs. the Chiefs, Detroit is on a 4-0 SU & 2-1-1 ATS run as home chalk (now that’s scary). Coming off their bye week, the Lions also own a winning record in post-bye games of late, with 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark. St. Louis is still looking for a first win but stop the presses; the Rams own a 3-2 ATS record in their last road games (oh the humanity!)

Keys to the Game-

Anyone reading this deserves a key to the city from either Detroit or St. Louis. Quarterback Marc Bulger has looked ill-suited for the last couple of offenses he’s been in charge of since Mike Martz left town. His career path is taking on Joey Harrington proportions. In this celebration of losers, Bulger has to throw crisper passes that finish off drives, especially against NFL's 30th-ranked pass defense. Steven Jackson is the Rams best player by a generous margin, give him the ball until he collapses from exhaustion, that’s OK, St. Louis has bye next week. Otherwise, Rams fall to 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Receiver Calvin Johnson has been upgraded to probable, which is big help for team is desperate need of being able to stretch the field. The Rams allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (31st in NFL), which should provide Detroit ample opportunity to attack down the field. The Lions rushed for over 129 yards against Minnesota and Washington in weeks 2 and 3 and 92.6 per game since. The offensive line has to return to physical football. The Lions are 3-13 ATS tackling wretched defensive teams who give up 27 or more points and they better tackle Jackson or add one digit to right side of ledger.

3DWLine – Detroit by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Detroit -4, 43.5

Denver at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Teams coming off their bye week will meet when Baltimore hosts Denver. They come in riding completely different waves of momentum however. The Broncos last beat San Diego to take full control of the AFC West Division at 6-0. They are unblemished ATS as well (6-0), and are allowing a league best 11.0 points per game. In fact, strange as it is, the Denver defense is the better unit in this matchup. Baltimore (4-2 ATS) has lost three straight games to fall back to .500, and is yielding 21.7 points per game (19th) and 5.8 yards per play (23rd) after six contests. Those numbers fall well short of the accomplishments of the 2008 Ravens which were the No.2 overall defense. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team faces back-to-back divisional road tests after this one; making it all the more important they win this ballgame. In this head-to-head series, the Ravens and UNDER are both 5-1 ATS in last six conflicts.

Keys to the Game-

How teams have been dissecting the Ravens is by spreading them out. Coach Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to break down tape and can view the Baltimore secondary is beatable in several ways. Kyle Orton has thrived in this offense and has one worthless Hail Mary interception on the season. As every quarterback facing the Ravens at least knows, find safety Ed Reed first before throwing. Denver is 16-5 ATS after a bye week and will want to introduce linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Joe Flacco and build on his 10.5 sack total already this season.

Coach Harbaugh trusts Flacco this season more as passer, maybe too much. To start the season the Ravens ran the ball over 33 times a game, during the current three game losing streak, almost half, at 17.6 carries per contest. This would be a good time to establish tight end Todd Heap and fullback Le'Ron McClain and keep the Denver defense on the field for extended periods of time. Baltimore has covered nine of last 11 as a favorite and has to tackle better with all the short stuff Denver throws and completely take away the run. Baltimore needs points of some kind every time they are Denver territory.

3DWLine – Baltimore by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -3.5, 41.5

Miami at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

It will be a quick turnaround for the AFC East rematch between the Dolphins and Jets, who met just three weeks ago in an entertaining Monday night contest in Miami. The Dolphins (2-4 SU&ATS) won that game 31-27 as three-point home underdogs to boost their record in divisional play to 6-2 ATS under Tony Sparano. (Interesting to note the Fins are less than point difference playing on the road compared to home vs. New York) However, this will be the first time since September 27th that they will have played on the road after struggling to just 20 points in two away losses. New York (4-3 SU&ATS) wraps up its home divisional slate with this contest and is looking to improve a 1-7-1 ATS mark in that scenario since 2006. New coach Rex Ryan’s team was able to snap its three-game losing streak last week in Oak-Town to climb back over .500 on the season. The Jets own the edge in the recent series clashes in New York, going 12-5 SU & 10-4-3 ATS since David Dinkins was elected mayor of new York City. (1992)

Keys to the Game –

This week Miami has to get more out of their base offense and likely be less dependent on the Wildcat. The Jets have seen live once already and should have a good read on how to contain or stop it. Having Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the game at the same time, adds a new element of deception, running draws and screens from different sets. Ted Ginn Jr. needs sideline time, he’s more a deterrent than help to Dolphins offense. Have Chad Henne chuck the pigskin to Brian Hartline and others. Miami is 3-13 ATS off a non-division contest, playing a division rival next and have to hope rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith can hold up against the pass and run.

This will be Henne’s first road start and Ryan’s bunch has to apply the pressure to him and make him feel as unsafe as midnight walk thru Central Park. Miami averaged better than six yards per Wildcat carry three weeks ago, that needs to be sliced in half. The Flyboys are only 1-5 ATS after opponent hangs a zero on the scoreboard, however can improve that record by giving Mark Sanchez a similar gameplan to last week. Keep it simple and add elements as the game progresses based on need. You traded for Braylon Edwards, keep him involved.

3DWLine – Jets by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – N.Y. Jets -3.5, 40.5

Minnesota at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

It seems like they played just yesterday, but Sunday is already time for the much anticipated rematch between Brett Favre’s Vikings, and his old team, Packers. This game might even be bigger than the last meeting, as this will be the first time Favre will return to Lambeau Field. It’s also important because the lead in the NFC North Division will be on the line, with Green Bay (4-2 SU&ATS) having a chance to pull even in the loss column with a win. The Vikings (6-1, 4-3 ATS) won round 1 but are off their first loss and looking to improve a 1-5 ATS record in their last six pre-bye week divisional games. They are also just 1-5 SU & ATS in NFC Central road contests of late. Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge as divisional hosts and has won six of the last nine at Curly Lambeau’s place. Minnesota owns a 7-2 ATS edge on the almost frozen tundra.

Keys to the Game-

If Brett Favre said he’s never been more nervous before a game than the one in Minnesota, wait until this one. Coach Brad Childress has to script the plays that allow Favre to come out aggressively, yet stay away from danger. Adrian Peterson has been fairly well bottled up four of the last five games and should be utilized more in the screen game to exploit his open field talents. The Vikings only have six turnovers on the year, the two last week cost them the game. Protect the ball against the team with the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Minny’s offense is fire and they are 14-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive contests.

Focus the running game to the left, run the ball at Jared Allen almost exclusively the first part of the game. Work is body and legs to slow down his pass rush for later. Aaron Rodgers went to Cal, thus he should have enough education to dump the ball off to backs or tight end instead of taking negative plays. With CB Antoine Winfield out, work underneath passes to start and run double moves against fair to below average safeties. The Packers defense has allowed three points to two crummy teams (Lions and Browns), yet it is not a coincidence that since Aaron Kampman has played in three-point stance in passing situations, the defense has improved. The Pack is 8-1 ATS at home off a double digit win and has to muddy the back of No.4’s jersey starting in the first quarter.

3DW Line – Green Bay by 6

DiammondSportsbook.com Line – Green Bay -3, 47

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.