Super Saturday of College Football
What I thought yesterday- Did you have the same impression I did about Pittsburgh and Tennessee? The difference between the two teams at least in that game was at quarterback. Time to start looking for the next coach in Colorado, Dan Hawkins has not and will not succeed in Boulder. The first mistake, if you want to call it that, was having his son Cody as QB. He’s supposed to be 5’11, which is debatable. The younger Hawkins has fairly strong arm, but unlike a Chase Daniel, Drew Brees or even Doug Flutie from years ago, he’s not especially accurate. It’s also clear Cody’s not real comfortable rolling out, he’s more a “plant and chuck” quarterback as opposed to being able to run around or be particularly good with touch passes. As guys like to say, at the end of the day, how many BCS schools could Cody Hawkins play for that would be successful?
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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. This system is 26-4 ATS. 86.4 percent and says to play South Carolina and Fresno State. Two for two last week.
Free Football Trend -2) We have double angle that counts as one. Boston College is 11-1 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in their previous game and Kent State is 2-14 ATS playing on a Saturday over the last three seasons.
Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick is taking the points with UNLV.
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College Football Betting Saturday

East Carolina (+6, 44) at West Virginia 3:30E
Last year, East Carolina burst onto the scene with opening game upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Pirates went on to win the Conference USA championship. With 16 returning starters, they’ll try and take the next step in beating a major BCS school on the road. In a league known for wide-open offenses, coach Skip Holtz went for defense. The D-line is a particular is a strength, with the likes of Jay Ross and Linval Joseph on the inside at tackle and C.J. Wilson and Scotty Robinson covering up the ends. Whatever they miss, last year’s leading tackler, middle linebacker Nick Johnson cleans up. East Carolina is 13-3 ATS on the road the last four seasons.
A new era of West Virginia football continues without Pat White at quarterback. Jarrett Brown is the new big on campus and he’ll hopefully lead a more varied attack with four or five exciting targets to throw to like slot receiver Jock Sanders. The one mainstay is running back Noel Devine, who will now be the featured runner. Devine ran for over 1200 yards a season ago and with White no longer toting the pigskin as much, the junior scat back could add 300 to 500 yards to his total if the offensive line comes together. The Mountaineers are mediocre 11-18-1 ATS as home favorites since 2003.
West Virginia had seven-game winning streak snapped last year at East Carolina, but is still 17-3 and 5-3 ATS all-time against the Pirates. The Mountaineers are perfect 12-0 at home versus the squad from Greenville, NC and are 4-1 ATS. Last year was the first time in 79 games the ‘Teers had been held without touchdown and they’ll have serious revenge on their minds this season. Just keep in mind East Carolina is 10-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.
UCLA (+10, 45) at Tennessee ESPN 4:00E
Last year’s 27-24 overtime loss at UCLA set the wheels in motion for Philip Fullmer to be done as coach in Knoxville. Two games later, a home drubbing by Florida showed just how far the talent level has slipped at Tennessee. Lane Kiffin left the Oakland Raiders in controversy and created plenty being hired in Tennessee. With one impressive win over Western Kentucky under their belts, this is a game the Vols must have if they want to go bowling this season. The offensive line returns four starters and they got off to great start with the Vols runners totaling 380 yards on the ground last week. Granted, the competition was much, but quarterback Jonathan Crompton appeared more poised and mature. Look for Tennessee to run the ball with a decent collection of backs and Crompton throwing mainly play-action passes to better receivers than a year ago who lack experience. The Vols are 7-14 ATS vs. present Pac-10 teams.
It’s year two in Rick Neuheisel’s return to UCLA campus, however it might be only a little better than last year’s 4-8 opening salvo. The starting signal caller is red-shirt freshman Kevin Prince and the Bruins offensive staff likes his ability, however, will have to be patient with his inexperience. The offensive line and running backs are strictly generic, which will limit production. The defense will be the strength of this squad with solid performers up and down the starting 11. They will have to pressure and confuse Crompton, similar to last year and hopefully force a few miscues to place offense in position to score. UCLA is 8-2 ATS as underdogs when opponents are in revenge spot.
The Bruins are 6-2 against the spread vs. Tennessee and are 20-7 ATS the first two weeks of the season. Off last week’s rout of Western Kentucky, the Volunteers are 8-3-1 ATS at Neyland Stadium as a home favorite the last three years and are 9-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 28 or more points. This could be table-setter for big trip to Gainesville next week.
Notre Dame (-3, 48) at Michigan ABC 3:30E
If adversity builds character, then Rich Rodriguez and Charley Weis are two men well-versed in character issues to sell their respective teams on. No coach in America probably is looking forward to game day more than RichRod as controversy follows him around like a shadow. Rodriguez primarily stayed with Tate Forcier as his quarterback last week against Western Michigan and the results were impressive in Michigan’s 31-7 victory. The offense showed more continuity with everyone more experienced and knowing what the expectations are concerning assignments. The Wolverines should be nastier on defense with defensive coordinator Greg Robinson in charge of that side of the ball. Nevertheless, he installed a new 3-4 concept, which means a learning curve for a team that is 14-21-1 ATS at the Big House since 2004.
Notre Dame gave a stunning performance at home against a pretty good Nevada club winning 35-0. Weis’ Fighting Irish will take this act on the road for the first time in 2009. Offensively, Notre Dame is expected to be score points all season with junior Jimmy Clausen in command, throwing to a receiver contingent as good as any in the country. The offensive line has to come off the ball and open holes for an above average stable of backs and if Notre Dame can run effectively, the offense should really hum. From athletic perspective, this is best defense in South Bend in years. The question is how badly will the youth hurt them? The Irish are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS in road openers.
This is one of those crazy college football series, with the underdog 12-2 ATS, which has included five upsets in last seven meetings. How Forcier handles the Irish onslaught of pressure will go a long way in determining outcome. If he can make big plays, the Wolverines have a shot, if not, Notre Dame should win. In watching both teams, the most striking aspect is RichRod’s team should be where Weis’ squad is next season. Michigan is 0-7 ATS after playing a game at home, the Fighting Irish are 10-1 UNDER in road games over the last three seasons.
South Carolina (+7, 38) at Georgia ESPN 7:00E
South Carolina has been dying to have a top level football program for some time now; the problem is history doesn’t back them up. The Gamecocks had won 28 games in last four seasons for only the second time in school history (granted, more chances to win with expanded schedule) during Steve Spurrier’s four years. Off the 7-3 defensive struggle with N.C. State, it’s fairly clear Spurrier has a team that should finish above .500, with a losing SEC record. They can attempt to alter people’s perceptions with an upset between the hedges at Georgia. Sophomore QB Stephen Garcia has to be the leader of an offense that has many deficiencies. The defense showed they have ability in holding the Wolfpack to three points and the Gamecocks arrive in Athens 7-3-1 ATS as SEC road underdogs.
Georgia got an early wakeup call at Oklahoma State and were handled 24-10. The Bulldogs have ample talent in supply with one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, however they were held in check for 95 total yards last week. Senior QB Joe Cox, can’t be “no ordinary Joe” like last Saturday and must be more accurate tossing the ball to talented A.J. Green among others. This is big year for defensive coordinator Willie Martinez, with 10 of the 11 projected starters for this SEC showdown either juniors or seniors. Georgia has surrendered 30 or more points in last 53 games under Martinez compared to four times in previous four years before his arrival. The Bulldogs are just 4-9 ATS the last four years as conference favorites.
These matchups have been low scoring, tight contests. Georgia was the last team to score 20 points in this confrontation in 2004 and six of last eight have been decided by seven points or less. The wagering public has taken the total from 41 to present level. The Gamecocks are 16-4 UNDER the first two weeks of the season and the Bulldogs are 23-9 UNDER in the first month of a new campaign. The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS of late, with the favorite 7-4-1 against the number.
USC (-6.5, 45) at Ohio State ESPN 8:00E
Though it will be downplayed as such, every Big Ten fan (except possibly in Ann Arbor) would relish an Ohio State victory, even if they hate the Buckeyes. The Big Ten could be a running joke on the new Jay Leno nightly show if they are clobbered again by the Trojans. What’s unfortunate is Jim Tressel’s teams just haven’t been able to beat Florida and USC in the last several seasons in the biggest games and now they are looked upon as outcasts. A strong case can be made the Buckeyes are Phil Mickelson playing in the Tiger Woods era, among the very best, just not the best. Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has enough faith in himself that he can take Ohio State to next plateau starting now. The Buckeyes have had success against Pac-10 teams, but not against USC (0-4 ATS).
Does any team relish the spotlight more than Pete Carroll’s squad? When the lights come, USC is usually at their best and they are 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. The offensive line is Top 3 in every preseason publication and seldom is there a short supply of running backs at USC. Junior RB Joe McKnight is starting to play up to expectations when he hit the USC campus and last week had a scintillating 145-yard, two touchdown game on 14 carries. Freshman Matt Barkley will have to play his way out of the starting job and looks to be the next great Trojans field general. The defense lost a ton of NFL talent, however no one is thinking the replacements won’t be top level.
Statement games are a USC specialty and they are 13-3 and 12-4 ATS against Top 10 teams since 2001. The Ohio State defense must finds ways to rattle the youngster Barkley and possibly create turnovers that lead to points. The Trojans are 36-18 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game and 8-1 ATS in non-conference games. Unless Buckeyes come up big, it will be the same old “overrated” mantra about the Big Ten.
Baffling Buffalos in Toledo

Well, none of this happened in upset 23-17 upset loss to Colorado State in the open in Boulder. The Rams jumped all over Colorado in building 17-0 lead. The Buffalos were forced to play catch-up the rest of the way and had the opposite of what they wanted from offense with 40 pass attempts, compared to 21 runs. QB Cody Hawkins was off target and when he was accurate, balls were clanging off receivers hands.
Defensively, Colorado has to come up with answers beyond a solid linebacker group led by Jeff Smart. The Buffs secondary was burned repeatedly by QB Grant Stucker of the Rams and with Toledo wanting to throw the ball all over the field, as pass rush is tantamount. Colorado is 5-9 and 5-7 ATS the last three years in non-conference games.
It’s a new era of Toledo football with coach Tim Beckman now at the helm. Reports out of Toledo have he’s sold his squad on the fact of taking ownership, convincing them it’s their team, not his. This will be the third time in four years a Big 12 team has visited the Glass Bowl and the Rockets have won and covered the previous two. Toledo has offensive talent with seniors Aaron Opelt under center, running back DaJuane Collins and wide receiver Stephen Williams. This trio contributed to 493 yards in 52-31 loss to Purdue.
Where coach Beckman has to make impact is on defense, a weak spot the last couple of seasons and again last Saturday, where they were run over for 305 yards and passed on for 220 more. Beckman’s background is defense and he likes swarming defenders to the ball. Right now he needs to have about 13 Rocket defenders on the field at all times. The best news is a nationally televised game before an excited Friday night crowd, with Toledo 15-5 ATS in home games off a road loss.
DiamondSportsbook.com has the Rockets as 3.5-point underdogs with a total of 54.5 and they are 8-3 ATS as a home underdog, which has included six outright upsets in the last 10 years. Colorado has to be ready to play against fired-up Rockets club or this could be the start of the end of the Dan Hawkins era in Boulder. The Buffaloes are just 4-9 SU and ATS in true road openers.
ESPN will be in Klinger’s backyard (of MASH fame) starting at 9 Eastern and Toledo is 21-7 OVER in home games.
NFL Opening Day and other News
What I thought today- I read where Brett Favre said he wouldn’t let his streak of consecutive games get in the way of Minnesota winning if he was hurt or not playing well. Brett, please, for the love of god just shut up. I used to think the world of you, but enough already. Your super-sized ego didn’t stop you from wanting to continue to play football. Besides wanting to play, you have to carry vendetta against Green Bay, but now all you care about is not being a problem as an almost 40-year old quarterback. Brett how stupid do you think we are? You can’t quit playing; only a broken leg or right arm will keep you out and EVERYONE including you knows it. Give it up; the act is way beyond tired.
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Free Football System-1) This is about as simple as gets. Play On NFL favorites when playing on a Thursday. This system is 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent and believes the Steelers are the play.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and the Astros are is 19-3 in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in his career.
Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick picked up two more winners yesterday and has a two-teaser, Clemson +11 along with Titans +12.5.
Paul Buck has a Guaranteed Play in the NFL tonight.
StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information
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A New NFL Wagering Season Begins

The Titans (13-4, 14-4-1 ATS in 2008), who defeated the Steelers 31-14 in Week 16 last season and captured the AFC South title with 13 victories, are eager to be back in action after suffering a mistake-filled playoff loss at home to Baltimore in the divisional round. Tennessee outgained the Ravens by 180 yards, but three turnovers in the red zone proved too much to overcome.
Turnovers, a stifling defense, a deft running game and sound quarterback play from veteran Kerry Collins made the Titans the team to beat entering last year's postseason. And even with menacing tackle Albert Haynesworth (Redskins) gone from a defense that ranked in the top six in most categories, Tennessee is certain to be a factor in a division any of the four clubs could win and is 7-0 ATS in September the last couple of years.
Pittsburgh's competition in the AFC North may only go one deep, with nobody outside of Baltimore expected to contend. The Steelers (15-4, 11-8 ATS) have essentially the same personnel and are a safe bet to pick up right where they left off as 27-23 winners over Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII. Aside from an Achilles' scare in practice, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a quiet offseason, unlike 2006, and is primed to top last year's numbers (3,301 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) with a new second tier of receivers in Limas Sweed and Shaun McDonald (Lions) to go with veteran Hines Ward and Santonio "Super Bowl MVP" Holmes. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in first game of a new season.
Roethlisberger passed for 331 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions versus the Titans last Dec. 21 in a game that saw Pittsburgh's top-ranked defense allow just one scoring drive of more than 40 yards. That came midway through the third quarter when Tennessee went 79 yards on 11 plays and took the lead for good on Chris Johnson's 21-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-inches.
Pittsburgh can expect a heavy dose of Johnson and LenDale White, but as the Titans showed in last year's meeting they won't hesitate to pass, as Collins went 20-for-29. That means Justin Gage will see plenty of action after totaling 104 yards last season against the Steelers defense. Look for the Titans to want to clock Big Ben just like last season, when they sacked him five times. Though Haynesworth will be missed, he didn’t play in last year’s matchup.
The Titans are six-point underdogs, with total of 35 at Bookmaker.com and are 16-6 ATS when catching points and are 8-2 UNDER in September.
If the opening game is to be joyous occasion in the Steel City, then the offensive line has to give Roethlisberger time to throw and not have him running for his life. Look for Pittsburgh to test Tennessee defense with deep shots to Sweed and rookie Mike Wallace. Defensively, the Steelers have to keep Johnson inside the tackles and prevent him from bouncing out wide. Pittsburgh is 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and has played OVER in seven straight openers.
In the last six meetings between these AFC squads, the OVER is 6-1. The excitement starts at 8:30 Eastern on NBC for the NFL lid-lifter and the previous year’s Super Bowl champions are 9-0 and 7-1-1 ATS in first game of a new season.
College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.
Clemson at Georgia Tech -Underdog the Play?

The Yellow Jackets are getting love in Southern circles with their 16 returning starters. Forget any talk about coach Paul Johnson’s triple option offense won’t work against better athletes. It’s not as if Johnson is recruiting the same level of player he could at Navy. Georgia Tech should be plenty explosive in its second year of this offense, with Josh Nesbitt running the show. The offensive backfield will be as good as any on the ACC and if Nesbitt becomes a better passer, watch out! The Jackets however are just 6-5 ATS as ACC home favorites the last three years.
Dabo Swinney got on the job training last season as interim head coach and his enthusiasm ignited Clemson to win four of last five regular season games. Coach Swinney hopes Kyle Parker steps up as his choice at quarterback. Parker has good arm and is fairly mobile, with his backup Willy Korn more elusive runner with weaker arm. If the offensive line produces as expected, running back C.J. Spiller should have huge season. Spiller is a constant home run threat, but will stick his helmet into the pile to pick up a few yards for a club that is 16-8 ATS as ACC single digit dog.
Bookmaker.com has Georgia Tech as 5.5-point favorite with total at 43. This will be a “Whiteout” contest for the Yellow Jackets, with fans in white t-shirts at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Nesbitt will have to do a better job of hanging onto the ball after a pair of fumbles last week. The Jackets are 16-5 ATS in the first two weeks of the season and 18-5 UNDER when playing on a Thursday. Clemson is 6-1 ATS as road underdogs and is 7-1 UNDER playing on the day before Friday.
This is a wacky series, with the underdog 17-3 against the spread. Clemson is in revenge spot, losing 21-17 at home as 2.5-point favorites last season in what was coach Swinney’s first game as Tigers coach. The road team is 7-3 ATS in this hotly contested series.
ESPN will televise this frantic ACC encounter, with kickoff set for around 7:45 Eastern.
Early Line Moves
If you read the interview with Fezzik, the professional bettor from Las Vegas, he explains how sharp bettors like himself hit the action early, pounding on weak numbers. (You can find the interview, take a minute or two) Over the years I’ve followed this regularly and over 77 percent of the time, the various segments I looked after have shown a profit over the season.
I mentioned last week about not being comfortable with Week 1 numbers, since bookmakers release them so early, it’s hard to tell if the action is sharps or squares. The numbers at least in my opinion bore this out, with the sides 5-8 and the totals 2-3 in college football. All I can say is be careful with the NFL this week. I’m assuming the CFB figures will be more reliable this week. (For those not familiar with this, the numbers showing are opening figures and those found early in the week to establish differences)
College Sides
Wake Forest Pick to -3
Washington -18 to -21
Missouri -16.5 to -19.5
Tulsa -14.5 to -17.5
USC -4.5 to -7
College Totals
So. Carol/Georgia 41 to 38
UCLA/Tenn 48 to 45
SMU/UAB 58 to 61
Pitt/Navy 53.5 to 49
Rice/Tex. Tech 72 to 66
BG/ Misso 61 to 57
Kansas/UTEP 66 to 62.5
K-State/ULL 64.5 to 58.5
NFL Sides
Baltimore -8.5 to -13
Philadelphia +1 to -2
Cincy -1 to -4
Dallas -3 to -6
San Diego -7 to -9
NFL Totals
Dall/TB 42 to 39
Wash/NYG 39.5 to 37
Chic/GB 44 to 46.5
Buckeyes manhood to be called out as home underdog

Ohio State has taken on a lot of grief in the latter part of this decade, after being the model everyone was trying to copy not that many seasons ago. Three trips to Arizona produced one national championship and a pair of Fiesta Bowl wins from 2003 to 2006. Since then, two disconcerting losses to the SEC in the BCS title games and a “pat on the head” effort that ended in defeat to Texas in Glendale, AZ earlier in 2009.
The Buckeyes were exposed last year also in Los Angeles, as the Men of Troy laid a 35-3 shellacking on Ohio State, who was out-gained 348 to 207, with USC pretty much running a victory lap the last 20 minutes. Midwesterners are a prideful bunch who enjoy a good time, however there is nothing fun about being embarrassed, as Ohio State players could only watch and seethe as joyful USC players took satisfaction in slaying another wanna-be.
If last year’s game was a September Rose Bowl, then this year’s is about pride, Ohio State pride. Though USC has more NFL-ready players on their roster than the Detroit Lions, the Buckeyes couldn’t be in a better spot unless the Trojans top 50 players came down with the swine flu this week.
Though the Trojans are highly ranked in part based on pedigree, they have potential signs of weakness. Start with the personnel, where USC only returned three defensive starters. Yes, the replacements might be as good or better in time, but last year’s Trojan defense was one of the best in the last 30 years as a group. This preseason, three starters have been lost and Aaron Corp, the quarterback who had won the job in the spring, missed enough time which allowed true freshman Matt Barkley to step forward.
Barkley is receiving more praise then former Golden Domer Ron Powles (where is Beano Cook?), with precious little game experience. Barkley might well be the next great NFL quarterback, but first he has to prove he’s the best USC field general this season and will have to so in hostile Ohio environment. Barkley will be behind one of the top three offensive lines in the college game and playing on a squad that thrives in the limelight with 13-3 and 12-4 ATS record against Top 10 teams since 2001.
USC also has two new coordinators, one on each side of the ball. While coach Pete Carroll has said all the right things about his two hand-picked replacements, are the players sold on the new guys?
Ohio State can upset USC and here is how. The Buckeyes have a very good defensive line and have to have a draw against the Trojans O-Line. They must make it uncomfortable for Barkley in the pocket and force him to make quick decisions. The Ohio State defensive backs have to challenge USC’s receivers and take away medium to long gains. Force USC to move the chains using up three downs at a time.
Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has stated he wants the pressure of being “the man” and he’ll have to be. Tressel has been working with “Pistol” formations, giving Pryor more latitude to make decisions. He’ll have to throw accurately to make Carroll’s defense respect the pass. Ohio State has a retooled offensive line that was overwhelmed last year, that can’t happen again. Running backs Dan Herron and Brandon Saine have to hit the hole hard and fight for tough yards to keep Ohio State in reasonable down and distance numbers.
Bookmaker.com opened Ohio State at 4.5-point underdogs and the wagering public couldn’t get enough and quicker than you could dot the “I” in Ohio, they became seven point dogs based in large part on how they had to hold on against the Navy.
The Buckeyes will be a home underdog for just the fourth time in the last decade and face USC club that is 13-4 ATS against Big Ten conference opponents and 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. Ohio State is 0-4 ATS against the Pac-10’s finest, having last hosted them in 1990, losing 35-26 as one-point dogs. As of this moment, this looks like one for ESPN Classic or a repeat of last year, we shall see Saturday night.
Wednesday's Best and Unreal Story
What I learned today- A lot of people don’t like handicappers that are slimy by appearance and by their actions in telling half truths or outright lies. They pale in comparison to these slime balls. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/zombie-bankers-haunt-wall-street.aspx
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Free Baseball System-1) We’ve used this system a number of times this year and it keeps working. PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, after allowing 10 runs or more. Let the record show 104-22 mark, 82.5 percent the last five years.
Free Baseball Trend -2) This trend is actually in the article below and awfully hard to ignore. Jeff Suppan of the Brewers is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)
Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick is 11-4 and picked up over 10 single units (for the sake of making this easier to understand) since last Saturday. His best play was on St. Louis, but his next best is on Arizona which is still open.
Paul Buck finished the weekend in college football with 6-3 record and 3Daily Winners was 3-1 since Saturday. Review our Guaranteed Pick packages and start winning.
StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information
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Cards look to send Milwaukee into vorago

Today, one of St. Louis’ top hurlers, Adam Wainwright (17-7, 2.68 ERA) will look to become the major’s first 18-game winner and contribute to the sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers (66-72, -12.6 units). Before his last outing in which he allowed six runs in five innings, Wainwright had pitched 13 consecutive times conceding two runs or less. The right-hander’s value goes up even higher when you consider he is 10-1 on the road (Cardinals 12-1 in all starts) making a great choice for the postseason. Lifetime, Wainwright is 4-3 against Milwaukee, however this season is 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA while allowing 14 hits in 23 1/3 innings against the Brew Crew.
Last year’s playoff euphoria has given way to frustration in Milwaukee, with a pitching staff unable to carry the load and too many feast or famine hitters in the lineup. The latter has been especially true with the Brewers having lost six of last eight, and totaling six hits or less in five of last six outings.
Jeff Suppan (6-8, 4.97) will be the Milwaukee starter and he’s 1-0 with 2.81 ERA since coming off the disabled list and he’s 7-3 in 14 starts against his old team.
Oddsmakers like those at DiamondSportsbook.com are unimpressed with Suppan’s recent pitching, looking at the bigger picture of how both teams are playing. They have installed St. Louis as -190 money line favorites, with the total at Ov8.5. Here is another very lucrative reason to think about the Cardinals today.
Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, a cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smoking starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts.
Since the 2005 season began, this has been one of the most reliable baseball systems you will find anywhere at 70-5 (that is correct) 93.3 percent. This has further been backed with the underdog a perfect 12-0 this year, when it comes to losing. If you still have even an inkling of doubt, take into consideration Wainwright and the Redbirds are 10-0 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and Suppan is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)
Short Work Week Starts Today
What I saw yesterday- High entertainment value in Miami and Florida State last night, with two offenses that appear they could be potent most of the season. Along those same lines, both defenses lacked ability to cover receivers, develop consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback and too many run lanes were available in defensive lines which were masked with swift linebackers making tackles. I believe we’ll need to see both teams play a couple more games before a true read can be taken. On the glass is half full side, both looked much improved over last season at the same time.
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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +175 to +250, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a broiling starting pitcher who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is similar to one we had the other day and is every bit as potent at 58-4, 93.5 percent, including perfect 10-0 in 2009.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 5-29 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.
Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC will have two unanimous MLB plays today, Texas in Game 1 from yesterday and Detroit.
Paul Buck finished the weekend in college football with 6-3 record and 3Daily Winners was 3-1 since Saturday. Review our Guaranteed Pick packages and start winning.
StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet
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Slump-busters needed for Philadelphia and Atlanta

Philadelphia at Washington
The Phillies (77-58, +3.3 units) suffered a lost holiday weekend in Houston in being swept by the Astros in four game series for the first time in a decade. Philadelphia bats have taken a leave of absence, as Philly as scored almost 1.9 runs per game in last nine tries and hasn’t scored more than four runs in a single game since August 24, covering 13 ballgames. Only twice in their last 13 tries have they managed to get to double digit hits.
The Phillies will open up three games series in Washington (47-90, -32.4 units) and the Nationals have often been the perfect elixir for what ails any team. Washington would have nine game losing streak except for scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and surprise Florida 5-4 Sunday. The Nationals are 15-42 having lost two of their last three games and are woebegone 2-14 with a day off this season.
Philadelphia will face John Lannon (8-10, 4.09 ERA) who is 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Ryan Howard and struggling teammates are 27-15 versus left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.3 runs per game in 2009. Bookmaker.com has the Phils as -140 money line favorites behind Pedro Martinez (3-0, 3.52), with a total at Un9. Lannon and the Nats are 12-29 in night games, while the Phillies are 12-4 with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games this season.
Atlanta at Houston
The Braves (70-67, -12.9 units) have played themselves out of wild card contention by losing five straight, the last three at home to Cincinnati scoring four runs against a Reds pitching staff ranked middle of the road at eighth in the National League in runs allowed. Atlanta travels to hot Houston (67-70, +2.4 units) club, who just wiped out Philadelphia four in a row. Atlanta has touched home plate 14 times in last five contests (2.8 RPG), while hitting well below the Mendoza-line as a team with .185 batting average.
We picked a real bad time to all not hit,” Chipper Jones told the Braves official Web site. “It just doesn’t seem like anybody is swinging the bat real well.” Jones is a big part of the offensive misdeeds, batting .121 in his last 20 games.
A change of venue could ignite Atlanta who lost 4-2 Sunday and they are 12-5 in road games after a loss by two runs or less this season. They will turn to Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.18) who is 22-7 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Braves are -140 money line favorites with total at Un8.5.
Houston will try to extend their winning streak to five coming off of three consecutive one-run wins over Philadelphia. Felipe Paulino (2-7, 6.62) will be given the pill, attempting to hold the slumping Braves bats in check and Houston is 20-9 at Minute Maid Park in the second half of the season.
Looking ahead in the rear view mirror

New coach Chip Kelly’s team was impatient on offense and was completely befuddled by Boise State’s defense. No ability to run or pass in a game that shouldn’t have been as close as the final score.
Ron Zook is starting to look very much like he did in Florida, making Illinois an impossible wager. The Illini defense had a few big hits but was outclassed by a prepared Missouri offense. Juice Williams looked like he was past the expiration date and was totally ineffective. After Illinois State this week, the stumbling Illini are at Ohio State, host Penn State and at Michigan State. This team will win when it’s has no chance and lose in spectacular fashion, just like the “Zooker” teams did in Gainesville.
The Big Ten was 10-1, but 1-6 ATS. Ohio State was shaky, Wisconsin had to battle, Minnesota went to overtime with Syracuse and Iowa needed consecutive blocked field goal attempts to hold off FCS Northern Iowa.
At least the Big Ten won a number of games, the ACC was 4-6 and 1-4 ATS. Two of the spread losses were outright upsets as home favorites and Virginia fell at home 26-14 to William and Mary, (maybe they should have just played Mary) and Duke was rounded up by Richmond 24-16. About the only positive for either conference is league play should be competitive.
Syracuse played with more energy than anyone has seen in years and could have beaten Minnesota. Former Duke point guard Greg Paulus gave good accounting as starting Orangemen quarterback after not playing football for four years.
The Washington Huskies are not going to have a winning record; however they will be much improved, with a good offense led by quarterback Jake Locker. Definite underdog and back door potential with the Huskies.
Alabama could be VERY good come October. What’s so impressive about the Crimson Tide is they have players with large bodies and posteriors who can run and really smack people. The offensive line will only get better and they appear to have ability to wear down opponents in the fourth quarter. This team will be quickly overvalued.
Does Notre Dame FINALLY have something in the works? We’ll know more against improved Michigan, but the real tests will come later.
Tennessee and Auburn showed they might be better than expected, however sports bettors shouldn’t get too excited just yet. Both schools were playing at home in very positive environments that lent themselves to big opening games against inferior competition. Were the wins and covers impressive, yes, but much like the U.S. Open tennis tournament being played in New York, the Vols and Tigers just held serve, Let’s see when adversity strikes and see how they react.
Colorado coach Dan Hawkins challenged his team to think big in the off-season and said the goal was to win 10 games in 2009. That task just became a little tougher after being upset 23-17 as 13-point favorites in Boulder. The worst part was the Buffalos looked similar to other teams viewed this weekend; they just weren’t mentally prepared for first game of the season in trailing 17-0, which is inexcusable.
Games to watch this week include Notre Dame at Michigan to see which team is further ahead or possibly can North Carolina defeat Connecticut, as the Huskies were popular play against team last week at Ohio and are 33-17 (20-12-1 ATS) at home since 2003. South Carolina becomes a big opponent for Georgia who hasn’t lost first two games since 1996. East Carolina and West Virginia won’t receive a lot of national exposure, but is important contest for both teams. The Pirates want to show they are Top 25 team and the Mountaineers want to prove they are still the team to beat in the Big East.
Study the numbers
Those who wagered early were not particularly effective with 5-8 ATS record on the sides and 2-3 mark on totals that moved 2.5 or more points as of last Tuesday.
Favorites were 20-19 against the spread and double digit home favorites were 11-9 ATS. Home underdogs didn’t have much luck with 3-5 ATS record.
In studying the final numbers, games in which the final number moved three points or greater, the wagering public was 9-5 ATS on the sides and 6-4-1 on the totals. Overall, the Under was the play at press time with 22-17-1 record for week one.
Labor Day Offerings
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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses vs team that had a winning record last season. This college football system is 25-4, 86.2 percent and has 1-0 record this weekend.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.
Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC has 7-0 in favor of the Texas Rangers tonight. Bonus- Rutgers has 75 percent of the LCC's action and Miami just over 63 percent.
Paul Buck is having 6-2 weekend in college football and has Big East Winner today. 3Daily Winners was 2-1 on Saturday and prefers one team in ACC matchup tonight on ESPN in our Guaranteed Picks.
Florida Fued Favors Tasty Underdog

Miami is 4-1 ATS at Tallahassee and has new coordinators on both sides of the ball to work with 16 returning starters. The Hurricanes will feature pro-style attack, with sophomore Jacory Harris running the show as solo, with Robert Marve a transfer. Graig Cooper leads a rushing attack that should be improved, with a greater commitment after averaging only 129 yards per game a season ago. This key area for Miami since they are 22-8 ATS in road games when they rush for 150 to 200 yards.
Defensively, a number of real solid players are available, though not the typical All-American studs normally seen on the Coral Gables campus. The Hurricanes were last in run defense in the ACC a year ago and defensive packs managed only two interceptions. Linebacker is the best position at the “U”, with Sean Spence the ringleader.
Most of the off-season talk on the Florida State campus has centered on legendary Bobby Bowden losing 14 wins in 2006-07 for rules infractions. As Florida State continues the fight to reinstate those victories, Bowden will work on something he can control, this year’s team.
The Seminoles regained their strength up front on offense, averaging 177 yards rushing per game in 2008. All five starters from that contingent are back and will be leaned on heavily, while new receivers are discovered for sophomore signal caller Christian Ponder. Last season, Ponder played like a talented freshman, showing glimpses of good and bad, he’ll be expected to improve if Florida State expects to be ACC Atlantic champs. On defense, coordinator Mickey Andrews, in his 26th season, will have work to do with just five starters back. How quickly Andrews can make this cohesive unit will set the tone.
DiamondSportsbook.com has the Seminoles as six-point favorites with a total of 47. Florida State is only 12-19 ATS a ACC home favorite since 2001 and will be playing in Doak Campbell Stadium at well below capacity. The Canes are 6-3 ATS as conference road underdogs the last five years in this competitive series.
This Florida battle has been dominated by the underdog, covering eight of the last 10 times. That has usually been the road team, who is 8-3 ATS in these gatherings. Keep an eye on first team to score, with this squad emerging as straight up winner 80 percent of the time in last 20 encounters.
ESPN has this ACC opener starting at 8 Eastern.
Sunday Selections
I was thoroughly disgusted with how Twitter didn’t perform yesterday. Couldn’t load analysis consistently and had to try several times just to get one part in numerous times. After four hours, finally gave up, will look for another method this week. One thing I was disappointed in was 4-1 record in CFB over two days, with only Washington State letting us down, which wasn’t a real shocker.
Today its back to baseball and have Top Trend from Coors country. A dearth of best systems and went with the best I could find at 73.1 percent. Mike is sizzling and has Free MLB play. Good Luck
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Minnesota with a money line of -100 to -150, with a starting pitcher whose gives up seven or more hits a start vs a terrible starting pitcher who has ERA of 6.50 or higher over his last 10 starts. First time for this MLB system all season and it is 38-14 since 1997.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Jorge De La Rosa and the Rockies are 18-5 when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons winning by 1.9 runs per game.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Mike was 4-1 yesterday and will try his luck with Florida to wallop Washington.
Paul Buck hit both his plays here yesterday on Texas A&M and Auburn, while I missed on Illinois, but picked up winners on Cal and the Aggies from College Station. Check our Guaranteed Picks regularly.
Sunday Football Double Dip

Ole Miss at Memphis
This will be the sixth straight time these teams will start a new campaign matched against one another. Ole Miss is sexy SEC West pick, led by QB Jevan Snead, who is legit Heisman candidate, with large groups of NFL scouts hanging around the Oxford campus.
Going from trendy underdog to flashy front-runner has sidetracked more than one team in the past and the Rebels know it according coach Houston Nutt, who is trying to downplay public expectations. “It’s the same attitude we had last year when nobody had us ranked,” Nutt said of his approach to Mississippi being ranked No.8.
Bookmaker.com has Ole Miss as 17.5-point favorites with total of 55. The Rebels are 46-10-2 SU against Memphis but just 3-8-1 ATS as road chalk since 2000. Mississippi is 29-11 ATS in non-SEC action.
Coach Tommy West has found success in Memphis, but wants to play in C-USA title game this season. That might be easier said than done with only 12 returning starters. Quarterback Arkelon Hall has targets to throw to in Carlos Singleton and Duke Calhoun, who matchup well with Rebels secondary. Memphis doesn’t have the strength or power to go toe-to-toe with the offensive or defensive lines with their neighbor to the South, however the underdog is 4-2 ATS and the home team is 6-2-1 ATS.
Pulling a massive upset would get people talking about a Memphis team that is 17-9 ATS as a home dog and 18-12-1 ATS vs. the SEC. ESPN will telecast this contest at 3:30 Eastern.
Colorado State at Colorado
Even if you include last year’s 38-17 drubbing by Colorado, the last seven meetings in this in-state rivalry have been decided by 6.5 points per game. It just turns out to be fun to watch these teams get after one another.
Colorado coach Dan Hawkins believes his team could compete for Big 12 North, if injured players return and offense gels. This is meaningful year for coach Hawkins, who is 13-24 (14-21 ATS) at Boulder and has talked about his team achieving 10 wins this campaign. The coach knows this is swing season for him and his club is 10.5-point favorite, with his son Cody needing big season to ease the pressure. If big time sophomore running Darrell Scott hits his stride, the Buffalos move to 15-7 ATS as double digit favorites.
Colorado State had surprising 7-6 campaign with a bowl victory and looks to build on solid season. That could be easier said than done without established quarterback and only five starters back on defense. If senior QB Grant Stucker can gain early confidence, he’ll be able to throw to some of the best wide receivers in the Mountain West Conference. Dating back to 1986, The Rams are 5-14 SU in this Rocky Mountain confrontation with a 12-7 ATS mark
This rivalry returns back to campus just for a year with Buffs 17-4 in home openers (0-7 ATS run). FSN will broadcast starting at 7 Eastern.