Winning Big Money on NFL Draft

All right, maybe not BIG money, but at least got your attention to read on and who knows, maybe you can cash in. Imagine talking to your friends on Monday and telling them you picked up a few hundred dollars or even more betting on the NFL Draft! My assignment was to study all the aspects of where players are going. In order to make you money with my selections, I’ve channeled the spirits of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and other draft gurus to assure I can be correct.

One difference everyone will see in this year’s 2008 draft is the pace. In the first round, teams will have 10 minutes to make their selections instead of 15. The second-round window will be seven minutes. Rounds 3 through 7 will be five minutes. That will mean all the talking heads will have to get up to speed, with less boring time.

I’ll rate my prop selections from various sportsbooks on a 1-5 basis, with five being the best plays.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One (Over/Under 1.5)

What a toughie to start with. Matt Ryan will of course be picked and based on history it would make sense Brian Brohm would be taken. However, in surveying the landscape of immediate needs, not sure who really needs a signal caller and seeing the amount of money that would be required to sign one and have him sit, not sure any NFL team will do that. That said somebody is sure to pull boneheaded move and draft a player they don’t really need. Still with this year’s crop of QB’s filled with uncertainty, bet the Under on this prop. Rating -2

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One (Over/Under 4)

Heavy action on the Under, now up to -350 in this spot. The only true every down back is Darren McFadden, whose skill set includes taking the ball out of the shotgun formation. Next is Rashard Mendenhall, who though doesn’t possess the straight line speed of DM, has more then enough gitty-up and can run inside or outside, just ask USC. Jonathan Stewart is the last sure-fire first round selection. He is the perfect complimentary back to a team that has shifty starter. What makes this an Over wager is Felix Jones is available. Dallas in no longer enamored with Julius Jones and will want somebody new to tag with Marion Barber. Owner Jerry Jones is Arkansas grad, loves to play GM on draft day and Jones went to what college, that’s right Arkansas. Play Over to cash +270 ticket. Rating -4

Number of Wide Receivers taken in Round One (Over/Under 3)

Based purely on talent, its hard to make a case more than one wide receiver will be taken in the top 11, since Buffalo looks to be hooked on Devin Thomas. Malcolm Kelly and James Hardy have first round ability and likely will be taken, but sure things, hardly. Going to pass here, because other then these three, nobody else is worthy, and need does not seem to be an issue.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One (Over/Under 6)

With Jake Long already heading to Miami, six more are needed to go Over. Like the Dolphins, Chicago, Atlanta and Kansas City appear to have pressing needs, taking the total to four. Talent wise, a number of outstanding linemen are available. As is the case most years, you’ll see a run at a certain position as GM’s sometimes panic if the guy they pegged gets picked. Thus they’ll go with the logic of protecting the quarterback and making the running game click and sense there is enough depth at this position, seven offensive linemen is a real possibility. Play Over 6. Rating -3

Number of Defensive Backs (CB/S) taken in Round One (Over/Under 5.5)

This prop wager all hinges on what Baltimore does. If Matt Ryan falls to eight, expect the Ravens to draft him. That would mean five would be the correct number for this bet, making Under the play. If Atlanta takes Ryan, Baltimore could take Leodis McKelvin or Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. Kenny Phillips from Miami will be taken, as will Mike Jenkins. Corner Aqib Talib might be the best in the entire draft, however character issues make him late first rounder, possibly in Green Bay. Antoine Cason will be the sixth DB chosen, sending this number Over, if Ryan is gone by number eight slot. I’m betting he is thus wagering the -115. Rating -3

Chris Long - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 3.5)

Be serious. The Rams are taking Howie’s kid as the number two pick. Granted, -200 is a little rich, but think of it as betting the Patriots against the Jets on the money line. If by some crazy chance, St. Louis goes with Glen Dorsey, look for Atlanta to trade down and team that covets Long take him third. Rating-5

Darren McFadden - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 5.5)

Al Davis has always been enamored with speed, thus expect him to take McFadden at four and try to move one of the dozen other running backs under contract during the draft. Play Under. Rating-3

Matt Ryan - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 7.5)

Play Over, as Atlanta gets cold feet. Rating -3

Glenn Dorsey - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 2.5)

Betting Chris Long to St. Louis, making this Over play. Rating -3

Sedrick Ellis - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 8.5)

Indications are Cincinnati at nine, believe the USC DT will be available and take him here. Play Over. Rating – 4

Vernon Gholston - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 6.5)

If Kansas City doesn’t take him at five to replace Jared Allen, the Jets almost assuredly will next at six. Play Under- Rating -4

Rashard Mendenhall - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 15.5)

It seems to be no coincidence that the number chose for this prop and the Detroit Lions draft position is identical (15 that is). Play Under with the Lions needing a first rate running back to go with new offensive philosophy. Rating -4

Jonathan Stewart - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 20.5)

Tricky call here on the former Oregon Duck. He’s had his share of injuries, making durability concerns real. He’s a big back, who can cut on a dime, making him prone to ankle injuries over the short and long term. The Eagles (19th) or Seahawks (25th) are the logical teams for Stewart to be chosen by. My guess is Philadelphia does defensive backfield and Seattle scoops him up. Play Over. Rating -1

DeSean Jackson - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 27.5)

What team has aging quarterback, a lead receiver in his mid-30’s and no other consistent outside threat? If you guessed Tampa Bay, you are correct. The Bucs draft 20th, meaning DeSean Jackson will be wearing pewter, red and white in the fall. Rating -5

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Darren McFadden -140 vs Matt Ryan +110
Challenging wager, picking McFadden as Atlanta doesn’t pull the trigger on Ryan. Rating -3

Chris Long +140 vs Glenn Dorsey -180
Everything I’m reading suggests Long to St. Louis as second selection. Rating -5

Briam Brohm -260 vs Chad Henne +200
If Atlanta passes on Ryan, this is where they pick up Brian Brohm to fill quarterback needs. Rating -3

Joe Flacco +105 vs Chad Henne -135

Even with all the good things heard about Flacco, that was February, this April, does any organization take a flyer on a quarterback or look around the NFL, with the number of Wolverines QB’s that have cashed paychecks the last 15 years. Pick Henne. Rating -2

Jonathan Stewart -180 vs Felix Jones +140
Even though Jones appears headed to Dallas at 28th slot, rumors are starting to percolate, Arizona might jump in and take Jones. I’d still lean with Stewart; however hearing enough talk this could be real. Rating -1

Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)

An uncertain wager on Under, with Marcus Harrison of Arkansas the one player that could tip the scale the wrong way. Rating-1

Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)

After careful study, don’t find the seventh player, mark this play as an Under. Rating-3

Total Big 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)

Four players are set, with Indiana’s James Hardy the variable selection. His inability to play hard all the time has the Under as the play. Rating-2

Total PAC 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)

With such at deep draft at the cornerback position, Antoine Cason is fifth Pac-10 player picked in opening round. Rating -3

Many different sportsbooks are offering wagers on certain players picked in the first round, thought I’d share my absolutely favorite one.

Former Penn State LB Dan Conner to be taken in first round?
This is legalized thievery at +150 for the answer to be NO. Rating-5



Disclaimer- No way to know what teams might make trades that would significantly alter how the draft plays out. Take this into consideration.

If I Were the Coach of NBA Playoff team …….

Three more NBA Playoff games are on the agenda for Friday night, each have a circumstance for the home team. Just like the head coach of these NBA teams, professional basketball bettors have to decide the best course of action to take knowing what they have seen or what they believe. Here is a look at what each home team coach has to do to either get back in the series or take the lead in Game Three.

Before Dallas and New Orleans matched-up, the general consensus was the postseason experience of the Mavericks would be difficult for New Orleans to overcome, since nobody other than the coach Byron Scott had any to speak of. What we have seen in this series is Hornets fly around the Mavs players and sting them at will. Since taking a 52-40 lead in the first half of Game one, Dallas has been outscored 48 points in the last 72 minutes.

"I love adversity," Mavs coach Avery Johnson said. "That's just my whole deal. It's not that I'm always looking for it, but when it comes, I like to hit adversity right in the face. I think when you love adversity and you have a lot of courage under fire, when you're in some adverse situations, it tells you a lot about yourself.

"It can help build confidence, so even though it appears to be challenging, and it has been, I think a lot of great things have come out of this season. We've found out a lot more about ourselves, we found out a lot more about our players and it's been a different kind of year."

Coach Johnson can throw out all the bravado and cheap talk he wants, but he better find a way to get the ball out of Chris Paul’s hands. Paul and Manu Ginobili have been the single most dominant players in the post-season. If I were the Dallas coach, I’d stop fooling around having Jason Kidd attempting (politely used) CP. Look into the eyes of what players on the roster have professional pride and would be willing to take the challenge, even for three or four minute periods. Dallas is 37-19 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and should have a large amount of fire in the belly to compete. Also design some junk defenses to throw off rhythm of Hornets’ offense. Demand your players crash the boards since they are 105-61 ATS when they grab four to nine more rebounds than their opponents in a game and have only outrebounded N.O. by total of seven.

Set more screens for Jason Terry to score more off the bench. His production is key; as Terry has to start dropping shots. Dallas is a five-point home favorite at most wagering outlets and needs to prove the 13-game home winning streak (9-4 ATS) is no fluke and bury them early.

Over in Phoenix, the Suns have given away two huge leads in both games against San Antonio, each ending in defeat. While the Suns coaching staff and players feel they are the better team, and they might be, winning games is more important than talking about it. Phoenix is 20-8 ATS when playing with double revenge and will have the home crowd at Planet Orange. (New nickname of arena) If I were Mike D’Antoni, as soon as the Spurs play Hack-a-Shaq, I’d turn right around and foul Tim Duncan immediately. This is part of the mind games Greg Popovich likes to play, so give it right back. It might mess with Duncan’s head a little and let your team know, you aren’t taking this garbage.

Next you sit down with Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and the Big Cactus (Shaq) and speak very loudly; telling each of them should know how to defend the pick and roll, especially after seeing 40+ times the last two games and countless times throughout their careers. I’d question their pride as professional NBA players to be so continually embarrassed by the most fundamental play in basketball. With the Spurs just 1-9 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season, I’d take Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa over to the side and ask them if they enjoy playing the Suns or if they’d prefer the winters in Milwaukee. I’d explain this is the postseason, where it the game is different and your teammates need difference-makers, are you going to be that player or should we making travel plans for you?

If I were coaching Phildelphia, I’d tell my youthful charges, Detroit is to be respected for Game Two effort, but they are ripe emotionally to be taken. The city of Brotherly Love is alive with the Flyers winning opening round series in hockey; the Phillies are defending Eastern Division champs in baseball, thus the town is alive. We’re a deserved four point home underdog and everyone assumed the Pistons will just march into the Wachovia Center and take us down. Instead, we are the same team that is 29-17 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. We’re 10-4-1 ATS following a straight up loss and were 8-4 against the spread after shooting less than 40 percent. (Granted coaches won’t use gambling references).

Coach Mo Cheeks needs F Andre Iguodala to stop playing like rank amateur (5-24 from the field) and start connecting like he has most of the season. Philly will have one major element in their favor, teams like Detroit which are first game home loser, win and cover next game, are only 6-14 SU and ATS in Game Three.

Looking Ahead at NFL Schedule

You have to hand to the NFL, two and a half months after the last meaningful football game was played and more than three months before training camps open, they have managed to be the most talked about sport on the day they released their schedule for the 2008 season. This dominated the conversation on talk radio from coast-to-coast and ESPN took up two hours of prime real estate to bring Chris Carter and Ron Jaworski into your living rooms to discuss all the possibilities.

Our preference here at the 3Daily Winners is to deal in realities, since trying to guess what will be the top games for next season is nearly impossible, especially trying to come up with complete list. Consider only 20 of the last 36 teams (55.5 percent) the last three years have made the NFL playoffs the following year. It was easy to pinpoint a regular season contest between New England at Indianapolis on Nov.4 was going to be an important game; however nobody could have forecasted a late November Green Bay at Dallas tilt would have almost as much importance. In April, we just have to stick with the facts and for those who wager, facts, as opposed to speculation, win far more bets.

The AFC North draws the NFC East, contributing to them having four teams in the top eight in toughest schedules for upcoming season, based on 2007 results. The four teams will face opponents that had a combined record of 574-540, a 56 percent winning percentage.

Pittsburgh drew the most challenging lot at 153-103, 59.8 percent. The Steelers, besides drawing the always competitive NFC East, and having six rugged divisional battles, also picked up four encounters with arguably professional football’s best division, the AFC South. Throw in matchups at New England on Nov.30 and Pitt hosting San Diego two weeks prior and a pretty easy argument can be made today, coach Mike Tomlin will have 16 games he will have to prepare his squad for, with nary a break. Blindly looking at complete schedule, the only Pittsburgh game that might be (+) or (-) seven points or higher is the Patriots.

Indianapolis on paper falls into the number two spot, taking on opponents with 152-104 mark. Their own division figures to have bumpy contests, yet somebody still has to step up and prove they can beat the Colts, otherwise until further notice; they are still the kings of the division. Indianapolis will be playing in new stadium, which to a certain degree negates home field advantage, especially in the front part of the schedule. The Colts, like the rest of division, will take on the NFC North, making their claim as having the second toughest schedule hard to read, as these teams have been volatile the last few seasons. After a bye in Week four, Indy will play four of next six on the road. They will venture to towns like, Houston, Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Between travels to the Titans and Steelers, that team from the Boston area, will return for another early November visit.

For conspiracy theorists, who can’t stand New England, their schedule is tailor made for those thinking the NFL is covering up something, like the folks who talk about Roswell, New Mexico. Of course all schedules are based on formulas predetermined, still when a team goes thru the regular season undefeated and faces teams that were 99-157 (38.7 percent), its hard not to raise an eyebrow. The Patriots would have more taxing slate if the teams in there own division would supply more competitive games. New England was 12-5 ATS most recently in the AFC East, before oddsmakers threw a couple of 20+ numbers for them to overcome against the Jets and Miami. Owner Robert Kraft’s club also drew the West Divisions from each conference, both who presently look average at best. It will be interesting to see how the organization approaches four trips to the Pacific Time zone, as they have two sets of these. Will they stay out West to prepare for a second game in that area or do they add to wear and tear of flying back and forth?

Don’t expect oddsmakers to cut bettors any slack on the Pats. After putting gargantuan numbers late last season, they won’t hesitate a second to do so again to balance or place the action in their favor.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last six Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For New York Giants backers and those seeking an edge, this was the only team of the prior five Super Bowl champs to post a winning spread record the next season, as they marched to back-to-back titles. The other four champs were 29-34-1 ATS.

2007 Giants TBD
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

The next question pertains to the most difficult schedules prior to the season, what does it mean for a teams record and against the spread? One element that has to be mentioned is the relative strength of the team. If any NFL squad is already a poor outfit, a more arduous slate will likely prevent any real gains in terms of wins and losses. If another club is a perennial playoff contender, they could be affected either positively or negatively, based on how they play in conjunction with higher grade of opposition.

In 2007, Oakland came into the season with worst record and hardest schedule. The Silver and Black showed modest improvement, raising record to 4-12 and 6-10 ATS. Buffalo was tied with the Raiders, facing most burdensome sked and was 7-9 with 10-6 ATS mark. In 2006, The Giants were off a playoff season was tied with Cincinnati with he most grueling card. New York, after a fast start, faded late and had to win last game of the regular season to finish 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS), to return to postseason. The Bengals were believed to be the team on the rise; however the scheduling gods got them and they were 8-8, with 8-7-1 ATS record. Overall, the last 11 teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate were 85-83-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in Pittsburgh for a Steelers postseason party, as only three of the last 11 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

The opposite end of the spectrum will come into question again in 2008. Teams that have had the easiest program to work around have only made the playoffs once of the last seven squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This was a sorry grouping, with 44-68 record and 50-60-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

Bettors will have plenty of time to see what they think about Green Bay starting another quarterback for the first time since 1992, when Aaron Rodgers goes under center on Sept. 8, a Monday night affair with division foe Minnesota.

This is just the beginning, as Buffalo will start with one “home” game in Toronto on Dec.7. With Buffalo’s decaying population and reports as many a 20 percent of season ticket holders coming from north of the border, look for the Bills to have similar arrangement the Packers used to have with Milwaukee in divvying up home games.

Chicago drew the unwanted honor of being the only team to play three consecutive road games, though none are far away. In order, the Bears are at Green Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota. Conversely, the NFL schedule maker rewards them with three straight home contests right afterwards in December. The first two are against warm weather-types, Jacksonville and New Orleans in five days, on a Sunday-Thursday swing. If Da Bears could win both at Soldiers Field, they will have 11 days to prepare for Favre-less Packers.

San Diego will accumulate the most frequent flyer miles, a whopping 33, 516 air miles. The Chargers will make four trips into the Eastern Time zone, plus a sojourn to London. At least the league sort of helped out San Diego in regards to flying to England, playing in Buffalo the week before, shortening distance dramatically, if not improving home lives.

On the subject of travel, why is New Orleans burdened with having to go to London and losing second home game in four years? It was bad enough during Hurricane Katrina; the NFL had the Saints charade as “home” team in the Meadowlands versus the Giants, but to take away another game out of the Bayou! Even San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith, whose team is the visitor, is puzzled why New Orleans was shafted again. "Why do we have the [eight] home games, and all of a sudden the people in New Orleans don't have an opportunity; they've lost one? I don't know," Smith said. "I'm sure they have a system. Maybe it's a coin flip.'' According to NFL spokesperson Michael Signora, no coin flip was involved. Signora said it simply was "a league decision." Nice.

Matchups

About Me

Do you really want to know about me? My name is Doug Upstone. I’ve been involved in the sports handicapping in some form or another entire adult life.

Nobody, I repeat nobody, watches and studies the games more than I do. I have game notes and observations dating back almost two decades. I’m a process person, meaning I have power ratings in different sports and like to determine if the lines are accurate, and I definitely start with the fundamentals when handicapping games.

This blog will be about people wanting to learn about sports. I’ve worked diligently to get to this point and have a group of “friends” who are not afraid to wager on sports, they are good and have the cash to back it up. Their selections will be on this site in the not too distant future. The actual creator behind this blog is Paul Buck, who has a strong desire to stay out of the limelight, and is part of the Left Coast Connection, which will be explained later.

Of course a blog is about writing and reading, I’ve learned the basic concepts of both. The whole point is to learn something you didn’t know and have it be useful in your knowledge of sports and wagering if you care to.