Do the Houston Rockets even have chance?
Coach Rick Adelman’s squad has engineered one upset in the NBA Playoffs; do they have a chance for another? Conventional wisdom would suggest no, going up against seemingly invincible Los Angeles Lakers, who have all the parts needed to win a NBA title. Houston lost all four games and failed to cover the spread against the Lakers this season, falling by an average of 13 points per game. No NBA team has ever won a best of seven series after losing all four contests to opponent.
Houston (note the kid in the upper right-hand of picture, must be Rockets fan) has only two areas that they look to have a potential edge, but they are important ones. At the center position is Yao Ming, who is bigger and more skilled than Andrew Bynum. If Ming can draw quick fouls to put Bynum on the bench, that forces coach Phil Jackson to slide Pau Gasol to play center and Ming can physically overpower him. Though Ming is mechanical and slow-footed, he has figured out how to beat double-teams with a feathery touch from about 10 feet.
The other position on the floor where the Rockets should exploit L.A. is at point guard. Aaron Brooks looks like the Energizer Bunny compared to Derek Fisher and should run circles around him on the offensive end of the floor.
Ron Artest and Shane Battier will take their shots at guarding Kobe Bryant, who averaged 28.3 points per game against Houston. Those two will try to get physical against Bryant to wear him down. Forward Luis Scola is a bit of a wild card and is very solid, not making many mistakes and can be punishing to Lakers in the frontcourt. Houston wears the underdog collar well and is 6-2 ATS as playoff dogs of five to 10 points. But will it be enough?
Los Angeles was too often a disinterested team when building big leads against Utah, and Houston is much more skilled at playing defense and controlling tempo, contrarian to how the Lakers want to play. Though the always lovable Ron-Ron is one frown away from being combustible, he seems oblivious to being a step slower with 10 years under his belt and is all-NBA trash-talker.
Kobe has to keep his cool and let his play speak for him. Houston dismantled Portland 92-76 in Game 6 to cover the 5.5-point spread and they are 13-29 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. Though Bynum’s game is less polished than Ming’s, he has enough power moves to attract silly fouls on him and he can use his quickness to thwart Ming’s size.
The Lakers are 16-6 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game and if Lamar Odom wants to make a name for himself, the Rockets are perfect foil, since they don’t have a player on the roster to stop him if he doesn’t want to be stopped.
Fisher will try to run Brooks ragged thru screens in the triangle offense and if he hits outside shots, he can negate the former Oregon Ducks speed edge.
The first two games will be at the Staples Center where the gold-clad Lakers are 39-5 (21-23 ATS) and have covered six of last seven with three or more days rest. In the series opener, L.A. is an eight-point favorite with total of 193 at Sportsbook.com. A focused Los Angeles squad is 9-1 ATS at home after three or more consecutive Unders and 6-2 OVER after a victory.
Houston has to play their game, but doing so on could be problematic, as they are 2-6 ATS recently against teams with winning home records. They are also 11-3 OVER after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.
The Lakers are huge -1200 favorites to win the series, but Houston is capable of forcing the Lakers hand if they stay scatterbrained. TNT has Game 1 at 10:35 Eastern, watch to see who sets the pace for later profits.
All hands on deck for Orlando and Boston
For the Magic and Celtics, the expression “dance with who brung ya” will not apply as too many players that allowed these teams to set up this meeting are on the sidelines. Kevin Garnett, Leon Powe, Jameer Nelson and Courtney Lee will be among the missing for this Eastern Conference semi-final. This means other have to step up and coaches will have to take long looks down the bench from game to game hoping to catch the right player able to be difference-maker.
Boston has several edges they can use to exploit Orlando’s lack of quicks. Though Rafer Alston was the best possible replacement the Magic could land for Nelson at the point guard, there was also a reason why Houston was willing to let him go. Alston is a descent facilitator of the ball, but won’t be able to keep up with Rajon Rondo and will likely need to run his lips to provoke Rondo into mistakes more than with physical ability.
After what Ray Allen did consistently to Chicago guards after Game 1, just the thought of J.J. Redick guarding him has to bring that warm smile the former UConn product has. Boston is 35-18 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more and Glen Davis has worked himself into more than just a serviceable player, with a consistently reliable short jump shot and he can set bone-crushing screens to set up Allen and Paul Pierce for jumpers.
Bookmaker.com has the Celtics as -135 favorites to win the series and they have greater versatility and play better defense than the Magic.
That doesn’t make Boston a lock, far from it. The Celtics had to physically extend themselves to secure win against Chicago, forced to play what was seven games and the equivalent of basically three more quarters to advance. That has to mean tired legs. Though Kendrick Perkins has the right body-type to compete with Dwight Howard, if he becomes fatigued quickly, he’ll pick up senseless fouls and be relegated to the bench, creating a great deal of freedom for Howard to patrol in the paint.
By now everyone knows Orlando was splendid on the road with 29-15 record and they had 28 covers to show just how devastating they can be. Their ability to knockdown shots gives them edge. Hedo Turkoglu returned to drilling clutch shots after a few off games against Philadelphia. If Turkoglu completely regains shooting touch, he forces Big Baby Davis away from the lane into unfamiliar territory, allowing Hedo to dribble drive to score and create assist opportunities.
If that happens, Pierce is forced to guard Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis can breakdown whoever is guarding him. Redick is a decided defensive liability, thus coach Stan Van Gundy must hide him as much as possible and Redick must have stalemate points-wise with who he matches up against to be considered a useful.
Orlando is off feel good blowout at Philly to capture series and is 27-10 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog. They are 2.5-point underdogs with total of 188.5, which one could surmise oddsmakers believe the Magic might have better team. These teams split four games, with Orlando winning last two, but Boston was 3-1 ATS and is 19-5 against the spread at home vs. the Magic.
Boston is 6-14 ATS in last 20 home tilts and is 31-14 OVER as home favorite. Orlando is 12-4 ATS as road underdog and is 12-4 UNDER after playing a game as a pooch this season, winning by an average of 13.7 points per game.
TNT has the series opener starting at 8:05 Eastern and poise is going to be extremely important factor for both teams, since neither can afford to have player banished for technical fouls or fighting.
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