Time for a Real Super Saturday

On Thursday we generated a 1-1 day and really like our chances of 3-0 today. We start with 90.3 percent system in the Big Ten. Follow that up with a perfect Top Trend in the Mountain West and Greg offers his Best Bet, from the WAC. Good Luck

What I read yesterday- Though I avoid political chatter, I thought this was rather humorous. “The real reason Rush Limbaugh was dropped as potential Rams investor was not for political correctness, instead what I heard was Rush was so inspired by Miami’s single wing “Wildcat” formation, he was going to unveil a “Right Wing” in St. Louis. All the offensive linemen would be to the right of the center, except for the tight end. After the snap, every play would be either a QB sweep to the right or an occasional nod to the crowd and something up the middle. No plays would ever run to the left.” - Christopherm

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Free Football System-1) Play On road favorites like Ohio State after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with five or more offensive starters returning. In the last 17 years this system is 28-3 ATS, 90.3 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Air Force is 13-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Greg is back and has loaded up on Fresno State to steamroll San Jose State.

Exceptional Guaranteed College Football Plays today.

The Platinum Sheet is a terrific resource for the sports bettor.

Top College Football Games to Consider

For this Saturday on the collegiate gridiron, two longstanding rivalries top the schedule. The evenly divided Cotton Bowl, half burnt orange and half red, presents a perfect setting for the Red River Rivalry, with the winner again taking command of the Big 12 South. The best annual intersectional rivalry resumes with USC traveling to South Bend. An influential Big Ten battle has Iowa at Wisconsin and the same goes in the ACC with Virginia Tech visiting Georgia Tech. Nebraska still hasn’t forgotten 70-10 loss to Texas Tech five years ago and would love to lay out the Red Raiders. Can the Ol’ ball coach work magic and upset No. 2 Alabama? Everything will be determined on another great Saturday of college football action. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma (+3, 52) vs Texas 12:00E ABC

For Oklahoma (3-2, 2-3 ATS), it has been a tough go in 2009. Having to play without its Heisman Trophy quarterback for most of the season, potential All-American tight end and recently losing its best receiver. Despite having more problems than David Letterman, the Sooners still control their own destiny with a win over archrival Texas. Like most coaches, Bob Stoops doesn’t worry about whose not there, instead trying to get the most out of who is. Sam Bradford played last week in Baylor bounce back win 33-7 and is having to go without TE Jermaine Gresham for the season and WR Ryan Broyles is questionable. Another factor in this equation is a defense lacking in big stops. In spite of nine starters returning and No.9 ranking, the Oklahoma defense did not made an important shutdown in their losses to BYU or Miami. The Sooners are 1-3 in last four meetings and haven’t covered since 2004.

As Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) found out last season, beating Oklahoma isn’t enough and they have to keep focused with road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State up next. Colt McCoy hasn’t been quite the quarterback he was a season ago, but still having a very good 2009 campaign. He’s been helped by a running back by committee this season, as coach Mack Brown has gone with the hot hand and kept feeding the ball to that back. What might make the difference for the Longhorns this season is the defense (No.4 overall). The defensive line was hit by graduation, nonetheless defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has pleaded with his team about the importance of seizing the momentum with key stops and turnovers and its paid dividends. Texas is 5-12 ATS vs ranked teams on neutral fields.

The underdog is 14-7 ATS since 1988 in Red River Rivalry’s, with the margin of victory 10 or more points in 10 of last 11 battles. The Longhorns are 6-18 ATS away from home after five or more consecutive straight up wins. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS as road underdog under coach Stoops, upset in the making?

3DWLine – Texas by 2

Iowa (+2.5, 47.5) at Wisconsin 12:00E ESPN

If a person is ardent fan of Big Ten football, than you know Wisconsin hates Iowa. Neither school would consider the other its biggest rival, nevertheless Badger fans detest Iowans. After losing at Ohio State last week 31-13, Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) is setup nicely to run the table in the conference after their upcoming bye week. Running back John Clay has dropped a few calories and is back to running hard behind an improving offense line, with Badgers rushing for over 200 yards per game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has more weapons at his disposal than what was believed in the preseason, with better athletes manning skill positions. Coach Brett Bielema and his defensive staff have out-maneuvered opponents with attacking defense. The Badgers are 20-11 ATS as single digit Big Ten favorites.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has never big on style over substance, which is why he’s pleased with Iowa’s 6-0 record. Closer than anticipated victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Arkansas State (24-21) are much better than a loss from Ferentz point of view. After last week’s thrilling 30-28 victory against Michigan, the Hawkeyes hit the road for a pair. Top priority is stopping the Wisconsin run game and making the Badgers as one-dimensional as possible. This strategy worked versus Arizona and Penn State and Iowa is confident it can work again. On offense, quarterback Ricky Stanzi has hit a few big plays the last couple of weeks and Wisky is vulnerable in the secondary, allowing 210.3 yards per game against opponents that only throw for 174 YPG. Iowa is 5-9 ATS in the first of two road games.

The Hawkeyes are 19-10-1 ATS since the turn of the century as conference dogs of 9.5 or less and they are 6-1 ATS facing the Badgers. Wisconsin has not covered last three tilts at home against the Iowa and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in Madison.

3DW Line – Wisconsin by 1

USC (-10, 50) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Forget all the come-from-behind wins, forget the 4-1 record and forget Jimmy Clausen Heisman talk, for Notre Dame followers and detractors, this is the benchmark game of the season. The Fighting Irish have a BCS bowl offense and an International Bowl defense. Notre Dame (1-4 ATS) has lost seven in a row to USC (1-6 ATS) and six of those games, the Trojans margin of victory has been Nancy Pelosi eye-opening 31 points per game. Charley Weis and his team feel this team is different, having a potential All-American quarterback and an offense that keeps overcoming the defenses’ flaws. The two biggest factors for Notre Dame will be keeping Clausen in vertical position and the ability of Irish defenders to keep USC out of the end zone. Notre Dame is 11-27 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

If the California game is precursor of USC’s true abilities, watch out. The Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) defense tamed the Bears like a zoo keeper and now has similar numbers to last year’s unbelievable group. QB Matt Barkley was productive against Cal and won’t be intimidated at South Bend, having played at Columbus and at Berkeley already. Pete Carroll is pleased to report injured players like wide receiver Ronald Johnson should be back, which can open up the Trojan playbook. The Men of Troy are 39-7 and 29-17 ATS in non-conference action.

Rest assured, USC has no problem playing the Irish since they have a “who’s your daddy sticker” on them. The Trojans are 14-3 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation and figure to be in good shape wanting to continue domination. This has to be a “Wake up the Echoes” game for Notre Dame. Somehow, someway they find a way and pull the upset and move to 5-2 ATS as home underdog against Top 10 team.

3DW Line – USC by 3

Texas Tech (+11, 61) at Nebraska 3:30E ABC/GP

With regular starting quarterback Taylor Potts out with concussion for undetermined amount of time, coach Mike Leach looks on building the confidence of his backup Steven Sheffield. Leach not only likes his quick delivery, but his mobility also. “Of our quarterbacks we have right now, he creates the best tempo for the group,” said Leach. The Texas Tech head man as other issues, like an offensive line that is allowing too much pressure on his pigskin passers. That needs to be solved with Nebraska’s ability to turn up the heat. They will face a strong Huskers running game (5.2 yards per carry), however the Red Raiders (4-2, 3-2 ATS) are 15-4 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry.

Playing in a steady downpour, it’s hard to look overly impressive; nonetheless Nebraska (5-0 ATS) played 15 minutes of football that will be remembered in Lincoln. Down 12-0 after three quarters at Missouri, the Cornhuskers scored the game’s last 27 points to raise record to 4-1. Led by likely All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, he and his defense teammates took over the game and a soggy Nebraska offense cashed in on their opportunities. If coach Bo Pelini’s squad can win this Big 12 contest, this sets up for the Cornhuskers to be 7-1 when they host Oklahoma on Nov.7. Nebraska is 7-3 ATS in the first or two or more home games.

Nebraska has dropped three straight to Texas Tech after winning the first seven meetings in the series. No Cornhusker fan will ever forget the 2004, 70-10 massacre in Lubbock and returning the favor would be the sweetest revenge. The Huskers are 15-3 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points a game. This has become a potentially ruse line, with Nebraska money flooding in from opening line of the Huskers at -6.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 9

Virginia Tech (-3, 52) at Georgia Tech 6:00E ESPN2

Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) buried Boston College 48-14 at home and has rugged assignment. The Hokies defensive front will be put to the test against the Georgia Tech option offense. This isn’t your vintage Frank Beamer defense, allowing over 123 yards rushing per game and not in the Top 25 in total defense (34th). This will be another tester in terms of desire to succeed and hold the line. Virginia Tech might gain one advantage if Tyrod Taylor continues to throw the ball well, since the Yellow Jackets are a rambling wreck against the pass, being burned for over 249 yards a game. Hokie offensive football is still based around the running game and they will have to run the pigskin on the ground to be successful. The Hokies are sensational 17-3 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has a Sesame Street lineup having three games against teams that start with the letter V (Virginia and Vanderbilt on deck) in a row. The success the Yellow Jackets have enjoyed this season is when they attack early, both on offense and defense. The option will bog down from time to time, which means if Josh Nesbitt can get things started quickly, that helps momentum, particularly helpful in front of the throng at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The defense has been plagued by missed assignments in the secondary and poor tackling. The Jackets will look to crank up the running game and are 17-6 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech has won four of the last five tilts; with the road team 5-1 ATS in recent clashes. Prior to last season’s 20-17 Hokies win, the average margin of victory was 23 points per game.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 5

South Carolina (+17.5, 45) at Alabama 7:45E ESPN

This has to rank among the stranger seasons the ol’ ball coach has had being a head coach (working for Daniel Snyder not included). The defense lost a ton of talent from last year, yet South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) has only conceded more than 17 points twice this season. Despite constant shuffling in the offense line, the Gamecocks total on average just over 370 yards per game, not bad considering the turmoil. Senior linebacker and captain Eric Norwood finds a way to make an impact in every game and he will need to in a big way to slow down the Alabama attack. South Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier.

Coming into the season, Crimson Tide (6-0, 5-1 ATS) backers thought their team had the potential to be even better than last year’s club that took 12-0 record into the SEC title game. The 55 returning lettermen are all physically stronger and a year wiser to coach Nick Saban’s no nonsense approach and if quarterback Greg McElroy could come thru, no telling how far Alabama could rise. McElroy has been tremendous and other pieces have fallen into place. Sophomore running back Mark Ingram has been as good as advertised, but tight end transfer Colin Peek is really fitting in, as he and McElroy have gotten more comfortable with each other. The Tide is 9-22-2 ATS in SEC home games, which includes three straight covers.

This is the first of trio of conference home games for Bama, who is 9-16-1 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. In studying Crimson Tide trends, most have come from the past and under coach Saban, most everything has been a lot different. For proof, check out 9-2 ATS record after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons, winning by 21.6 points per game. These teams last met in 2005 and the visitor has covered the oddsmakers number the last three times.
3DW Line – Alabama by 17

Pittsburgh's cry for help against Rutgers

The look on Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedt is often pained. Some say it a reminder of his own coaching limitations while others suggest Wanny is not often pleased with the results his teams provide. Whatever the reason, mention the team “Rutgers” and you are sure to see a head snap, a shoulder shrug and eyes downcast.

“They’ve had our number the last four years,” Wannstedt said.

Pittsburgh (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has dropped four in a row to the Scarlet Knights, failing to cover the spread three times. It’s no magic formula either, Rutgers has whipped the Panthers running the ball down their throats and passing them silly.

Coach Wannstedt believes his squad is better equipped to handle the assignment this year with a very sturdy defensive front seven that is that permitting just 2.7 yards per carry on the ground. The Pitt offense has been sharp all season, averaging better than 34 points per game. The running game has really come together behind a road-grating offense line and freshman running sensation Dion Lewis. Pittsburgh averages 5.0 yards per carry against defenses that have allowed 3.8 YPC. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in October of late.

One of the most improved quarterbacks in the country is Bill Stull of Pitt. Anyone who saw him play in last year’s Sun Bowl would have thought he would have a hard time making the team again. But Stull worked hard in the off-season and presently has 13 TD passes while throwing only three interceptions.

“Bill Stull is playing at an efficiency level that is as good as anyone in the country,” Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Pittsburgh is 19th in the country in yards per pass attempt as 8.5.

Rutgers (4-1, 1-2 ATS) is a hard team to have a very good feel about. They were overwhelmed by Cincinnati in the season opener 47-7, before anyone knew how good the Bearcats were. Home wins over FCS teams Howard and Texas Southern offer no insight and Florida International and Maryland are frequently good homecoming opponents.

Here are a few things we do know about Rutgers. Their defense, sixth ranked versus the rush in the country, might be somewhat fraudulent, nonetheless nothing fake about forcing 15 turnovers in last four games, no matter the competition level. They shutout Texas Southern 42-0 in last contest and are 8-1-1 ATS off a SU victory.

True freshman quarterback Tom Savage is a real talent and has started three games. He played some against Cincinnati, but this will be his first real test under center involving Big East football.

The offensive line returned all five starters and was presumed to be the strength of the team. They haven’t played up to press clippings and though the running game has improved against inferior teams, they have allowed 14 sacks through five games, the most in the conference. With Pittsburgh having a very good defensive line, the Rutgers O-Line has stay out of third and longs to help their youthful field general. The Knights are 4-1-1 ATS after a win by 20 or more points.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as six-point road favorites with total having fallen dramatically from 51 to 45.5. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS on the road, but are just 6-13 ATS as favorites. They are 6-2 UNDER after totaling 450 or more yards of offense. Rutgers is in a role they are very comfortable in; showcasing 10-4 ATS mark as home underdog. The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 UNDER after a game where they forced three or more turnovers since 2007.

This the second Big East nationally televised cable matchup on ESPN in two nights and it starts at 8 Eastern, with the underdog 6-1 against the spread. Rutgers cannot afford a second conference loss with five more games to play.

Unique OutPlay Factor Ratings

It's about this time each football season that I love to dig into the StatFox database for both college & pro football and tabulate the Outplay Factor Ratings for each team. By now, all the clubs have at least four games in the books, meaning we have a decent idea as to how they stack up for 2009. However, as is always the case, there are teams that are overrated and teams that are underrated. The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings can help to pinpoint such cases, as they ignore wins & losses, and rather quantify how well a team is either outplaying or being outplayed by their opponents. The big thing that the OF does for us is take into account schedule strength, as often teams are given too much credit for whipping up on bad opponents while not enough for playing a very competitive game but coming up short to an elite club.

With that in mind, here are the early season StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings for all the clubs as they headed into last weekend's games. I have sorted the teams by division or conference so you can easily compare the numbers, as the teams match up head-to-head most often. The (Off) column is the team's Offensive Outplay Factor Rating, with the higher numbers better. The (Def) column is Defensive Outplay Factor Rating, and there the lower the better. The (COF) is the Composite Outplay Factor Rating, and you can use each team's rating to generate a theoretical pointspread by comparing it to another club and then assigning home field advantage. The (RK) column indicates where that team ranks in the NFL or nationally in college. These numbers take into account ONLY 2009 game results, rather than a specific number of recent games.

Some of the things you'll want to keep an eye on as you analyze these numbers are first, any teams that may rank at or near the top of their respective division/conference in Outplay Factor Rating but not in the actual won-lost standings. These are the types of teams that may be getting undervalued by oddsmakers. Vice-versa for those teams at or near the bottom in OF, but not so in the standings. These are clubs that may be overachieving or getting the benefit of good fortune and hence ready to take a dive. The other factor that is important to consider is to find teams that are generating good offensive & defensive balance. If a team is drastically outplaying its opponents on one side of the ball and not the other, it may be a sign of a potential weak spot for that club. In other words, if a team such as San Diego has a very high offensive OF rating (positive) but also a very high positive on its defensive rating, that means it's offense is carrying the load entirely. A couple of bad or even average games by that unit and that team might be in some trouble. Same goes for a team with two very low negative numbers. That is a team that is outperforming its opponents defensively, but not getting the same performance out of its offense.

You can find out more about the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating by search the term on your favorite search engine or in the Fox Den Forum on StatFox.com.

NFL STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS (as of Monday, October 12th)

AFC EAST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NEW ENGLAND: +7.8 (Off: +4.6, Def: +-3.2) #5 of 32

NY JETS: +6.8 (Off: +-3.1, Def: +-9.9) #8 of 32

MIAMI: +4.2 (Off: +0.6, Def: +-3.6) #14 of 32

BUFFALO: +-8.8 (Off: +-5.9, Def: +2.9) #28 of 32

The AFC East has the highest combined OF of any division in the NFL thus far. Does that make it the toughest? Possibly. Even Miami had a positive rating after its first four games despite going just 1-3, meaning the Dolphins could be an underrated club in coming weeks. Both New York and New England have favorable schedules upcoming in terms of OF's, so expect these teams to continue to stay atop the division.

AFC NORTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

CINCINNATI: +4.6 (Off: +1.2, Def: +-3.4) #12 of 32

BALTIMORE: +4.3 (Off: +4.9, Def: +0.6) #13 of 32

PITTSBURGH: +0.2 (Off: +-2, Def: +-2.2) #19 of 32

CLEVELAND: +-7.8 (Off: +-6.4, Def: +1.4) #26 of 32

The AFC North OF standings are the same as the won-lost standings, perhaps indicating that Cincinnati being atop the division is not a fluke. However, the Bengals rating of +4.6 is just 12th in the league, meaning this division as a whole in underachieving. Pittsburgh's rating is particularly alarming, since +0.2 is barely outplaying opponents, and the Steelers' final OF of '08 was +9.2. Cleveland isn't nearly as bad as some other bottom feeder teams.

AFC SOUTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

INDIANAPOLIS: +11 (Off: +5.1, Def: +-5.9) #2 of 32

JACKSONVILLE: +-4.6 (Off: +-1.5, Def: +3.1) #22 of 32

HOUSTON: +-7 (Off: +-0.1, Def: +6.9) #25 of 32

TENNESSEE: +-8.3 (Off: +-2.7, Def: +5.6) #27 of 32

The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings for the AFC South are a one-horse race. Oh wait, so are the actual won-lost standings. Indy has been as good as it has appeared, outplaying teams by 11.0 PPG, which is 1.8 PPG better than the #1 ranked team of '08. The other three clubs are well below the zero mark, meaning that the Colts should be favored by at least 15-points in divisional play before applying any home field points.

AFC WEST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

DENVER: +7.2 (Off: +-1.4, Def: +-8.6) #6 of 32

SAN DIEGO: +-1.3 (Off: +4.1, Def: +5.4) #20 of 32

KANSAS CITY: +-6.2 (Off: +-3.3, Def: +2.9) #24 of 32

OAKLAND: +-13.2 (Off: +-10.2, Def: +3) #31 of 32

Like the AFC South, the West also has one team in positive territory in StatFox OF headed into Week 6. Denver has won close games, and the Broncos rating of +7.2 is indicative of that. They may be 5-0, but at +7.2, should not be considered yet as a large favorite. However, according to OF ratings, there's no reason San Diego should be favored on Monday. The Chiefs are better than Oakland, despite the Raiders head-to-head win.

NFC EAST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NY GIANTS: +8.3 (Off: +6.7, Def: +-1.6) #4 of 32

PHILADELPHIA: +5.9 (Off: +7.2, Def: +1.3) #9 of 32

DALLAS: +2.8 (Off: +3.5, Def: +0.7) #16 of 32

WASHINGTON: +-10.7 (Off: +-11.4, Def: +-0.7) #30 of 32

The NFC East is stacking up just as envisioned, with Washington bringing up the rear. However, only numbers such as the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings can quantify just how bad the Redskins have been in their 2-3 start. At -10.7, they are 30th out of 120 teams, and with the meat of their schedule upcoming, things could get ugly for that franchise. The Giants have been good, but not at the level of New Orleans & Indy. Dallas may be the most overrated team in the NFL.

NFC NORTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

CHICAGO: +6.9 (Off: +3.3, Def: +-3.6) #7 of 32

MINNESOTA: +4.9 (Off: +5.5, Def: +0.6) #11 of 32

GREEN BAY: +2.7 (Off: +4.8, Def: +2.1) #17 of 32

DETROIT: +-3.7 (Off: +2.6, Def: +6.3) #21 of 32

According to the StatFox OF Ratings, the NFC North is only slightly worse than the East. In fact the degree at which Detroit betters Washington explains how the Lions won their only game. In fact, Detroit should not be grouped with the truly poor teams at this point and is capable of winning games. Minnesota is easily the worst 5-0 team in football and will be tested the next three weeks. Chicago has been solid on both sides of the ball, while Green Bay needs to improve defensively.

NFC SOUTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NEW ORLEANS: +18.3 (Off: +13.2, Def: +-5.1) #1 of 32

ATLANTA: +8.3 (Off: +4.6, Def: +-3.7) #3 of 32

CAROLINA: +-6 (Off: +-4.1, Def: +1.9) #23 of 32

TAMPA BAY: +-10.1 (Off: +-5.4, Def: +4.7) #29 of 32

The NFC South OF ratings are as imblanced as the won-lost standings, and New Orleans is setting the pace for the entire league. The Saints will be tested this week at home vs. the Giants though. Atlanta's rout of San Francisco helped boost its rating about four points, and the Falcons are now ranked as the 3rd best team in the entire NFL. Tampa and Carolina go head-to-head Sunday, and assuming the Bucs have very little home field edge, oddsmakers have the spread pegged right, Carolina -4.

NFC WEST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

SEATTLE: +5.5 (Off: +1.4, Def: +-4.1) #10 of 32

SAN FRANCISCO: +4.1 (Off: +2.1, Def: +-2) #15 of 32

ARIZONA: +1.2 (Off: +0.4, Def: +-0.8) #18 of 32

ST LOUIS: +-17.7 (Off: +-11.9, Def: +5.8) #32 of 32

The NFC West is balanced after five weeks, just as the won-lost standings indicate. Right now, it is Seattle pacing the OF ratings, with a +5.5, putting it ahead of teams like Dallas & Minnesota. The Seahawks two shutouts help lead to a -4.1 defensive OF, 5th best in the NFL. San Francisco & Arizona are ranked lower overall than Seattle but have shown balance on both sides of the ball. St. Louis is plain awful, and according to the OF's, should be at least a 15-point dog in all divisional games.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS (as of Monday, October 12th)

To read all about the college teams, click here.

Article by Steve Makinen of Statfox and The Platinum Sheet.

Thursday Lineup

A clean 2-0 day here at 3Daily Winners yesterday. On the docket today we have a very solid MLB Trend for tonight’s game. With so few choices for systems we look ahead to Sunday with a 25-6 Totals System that yields two plays. Good Luck

What you I thought today- In reviewing different forums, the Dodgers are being chosen by about a 70-30 rate to win Game 1, which surprises me honestly. I have no opinion on the game myself, but Cole Hamels has owned the Dodgers with 1.64 ERA and if you read NLSC Preview below, you will find he loves pitching at Dodgers Stadium. Additionally, Philadelphia has fantastic road record this season. Color me curious.

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Free Football System-1) For this Sunday in the NFL, PLAY OVER on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, being a dominant team, outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards a play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This Totals system is 25-6, 80.6 percent and suggests playing OVER the number on Denver and Giants’ games.

Free Baseball Trend-2) The L.A. Dodgers are 20-6 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

Free Hockey Pick -3) Greg is passing tonight, but a well respected NHL handicapper I know is betting large on the Washington Capitals tonight.

Guaranteed Play from Paul Buck tonight.

The Platinum Sheet is a terrific resource for the sports bettor.

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Cincy Favored in Big East Bash

It won’t be long before some big-time college football program is going to be ready to cough up the cash to have the services coach Brian Kelly. Since taking over at Cincinnati, Kelly is 27-6 (5-0 in 2009) and 17-12-1 against the spread. Last year’s Big East title and appearance in the Orange Bowl has the Queen City fired up about something besides college hoops.

A few nay-sayers will complain that the Bearcats (3-2 ATS) have not played a Miami Hurricanes schedule to this point, however how many teams would be undefeated today if they had ONE returning defensive starter? Quarterback Tony Pike is leading a sensational offense averaging 329.8 yards passing, often looking towards playmaker Mardy Gilyard. If teams try to double Gilyard, that has opened up chances for running back Jacob Ramsey to slice and dice the opposition. Cincy is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 75 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

South Florida (5-0, 2-1 ATS) was on the edges of Big East title conversations coming into the season, after not meeting expectations a year ago. When senior quarterback Matt Grothe went down to injury, what supporters they had bailed faster than General Motors did on Saturn.

However, redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels has stepped in under center and delivered big plays and wins against Florida State and Syracuse and all the sudden, more seats are being added to the Bulls bandwagon. They are 5-1 ATS in last six lined games.

On defense, watch for defensive tackle George Selvie and safety Nate Allen, two outstanding talents. This gruesome twosome will have to get after Pike and their defense ranks fifth in scoring defense (9.4) and 10th in total yards allowed (263.0) nationally. They have forced 16 turnovers on the season.

“We'd be concerned if our defense was out there struggling, but as you can see the last two weeks, they've bowed up when they needed to and they're continuing to make plays," said Pike. "On offense, we're going to come out when we get the possessions and make the most out of it."

Cincy opened as 1.5-point favorites and were swiftly moved to -2.5 by the wagering public , bot retreated since back to two points at Bookmaker.com, with total of 48.5. Cincinnati ranks third in the country in scoring with 43.2 points per game, with Pike throwing a TD pass in 15 consecutive games. The Bearcats are 15-6-1 ATS against teams with winnings records. South Florida has to contain the Cincinnati offense and hope to hit a few big plays to grab the momentum. The Bulls are only 3-9 ATS against winning teams in last dozen tries.

This could be head-buster and a lower scoring than it appears. USF is 6-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record and the Bearcats are 12-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

These are two programs that will showcase their considerable talents to a national cable audience and South Florida is 8-3 ATS at home against Big East competition the last three years. One of those losses has been against Cincinnati, whom they are 1-4 and 0-5 against the spread.

ESPN has this Big East showcase at 7:45 Eastern.

Yankees and Angels ALCS Preview

While pitching is supposed to determine championships, the American League representative to the World Series figures to be what team outscores the other. These are the two best offenses in baseball, at least in terms of runs scored. Each team has a number of offensive strengths, yet both have weaknesses the other team can exploit.

New York is a power-laden veteran club that is patient as the dish and makes opposing pitchers feel they have to be perfect batter after batter. The additions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher not only added power, but keep opposing teams from trying to stack pitching in their favor, since they are switch hitters. Alex Rodriguez is looking more comfortable for change in October and his presence in the lineup makes others see better pitches.

Rumors are circulating C.C. Sabathia is being kicked around to pitch three times if this series goes the limit. Though Sabathia’s concentration will wonder against lesser teams, he proven time and again to be “big time” on the various teams he’s played for in important games. Phil Hughes seems to have found his perfect role and is probably being groomed for when the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera retires. There has never been closer that pitches as well and even at age 39, he still breaks more bats than any reliever.

A strong case can be made A.J. Burnett is the Yankees best pitcher, based on “stuff”, yet it always doesn’t come with him to the mound. Of Burnett’s 34 starts this season, on eight separate occasions he was touched for five or more runs, proving command and over-anxiousness can overtake him. Andy Pettitte will start Game 3, with the Angles 38-17 against left-handers. Joba Chamberlain has fallen off the second half of the season and could be hero or goat for Yankee team trying to make Fall Classic for the first time since 2003. This is also new territory for manager Joe Girardi.

This is a different Angels’ team than the last few years, when they last played in ALCS in 2005. The “hack at everything” team has found a semblance of patience, thanks to the addition of Bobby Abreu, who showed even veteran hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, they can wait for a better pitch to swing at. This approach has made Chone Figgins more valuable as leadoff hitter. Kendry Morales has added much needed pop in the middle of the order. Howie Kendrick and Torri Hunter have been smokin’ the baseball for an extended period of time. No team puts more pressure on defenses with runners on base, with merry-go-round style.

It appears the Angels have the starting pitchers to match wits with New York. Game 1 starter John Lackey finally shook postseason blahs against Boston and Jered Weaver was the one dependable starter the Halos had early in the year when they were throwing out journeymen night after night due to injury. Game 2 starter Joe Saunders hasn’t lost since returning from DL on Aug.26 (7-0) and has not allowed more than three earned runs in those outings. Scott Kazmir will have a chance to prove why Los Angeles acquired.

When searching for weakness, the bullpen stands out Shaquille O’Neal among ordinary citizens. Brian Fuentes is the centerpiece of frustration, but it’s too late to turn back now. The setup men are a coin flip, with Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver the most trustworthy of leaky bunch. The biggest issue with the starting pitching is they have a contingent that would make four really good pitchers if they were No.3’s on most teams. That’s been a cause for postseason failures; a quality start might not be good enough in October. Vlad Guerrero deserves respect, nevertheless should he bat that high in the lineup with two RBI’s in last 19 postseason games? While Mike Scioscia is well regarded in baseball as a manager, he’s won as many titles as Charley Manuel and Bob Brenly, who won’t be going into the Hall of Fame as skippers.

Offensive – American League
Runs scored Angels 2nd New York 1st
Home Runs Angels 8th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Angels 4th New York 1st
Walks Angels 7th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Angels 3rd New York 1st

Pitching & Defense
ERA Angels 9th New York 4th
Strikeouts Angels 9th New York 1st
Walks Angels 5th New York 11th
On base Ptc. Angels 10th New York 4th
Putouts Angels 5th New York 3rd
Errors Angels 4th New York 5th


Key Numbers- The Yankees and Angels split 10 games this season, with New York 3-1 at their new ball yard. Over the last three seasons the teams are 7-7 in the Bronx. On the season, the Yanks are frankly awesome. New York is domineering 59-24 at home and impressive 47-35 on the road. They dominated lefties with 37-18 record, whom they will face at least twice in this series. In games determined by two or more runs, New York is fantastic 83-43. With five scheduled night games, the Yankees are 70-36 under the lights. Don’t undersell the Angels, with 51-32 home record and 49-33 road mark. They too have crushed lefthanders with aforementioned record. The Halos are potent 34-22 as underdogs and as evidenced in three game sweep over Boston, no clubhouse is tighter, for a team that refuses to lose. Even after losing series to New York in late September, L.A. is still 11-4 in Anaheim vs the Yanks in last 15 contests.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Yankees -180, Angels +150

Wednesday October 14 at 3Daily Winners

Another slow day sports wise, but I did find a pretty good hockey system that didn’t make 80 percent level, but makes sense and has delivered 75 percent winners. Literally, today I just found this thought-provoking football that applies tonight. Lots of good reading material for today. Good Luck

What you should know- It’s 85 and sunny in Scottsdale, AZ. (I know that’s rubbing it in) Look for college football article on Thursday, some really juicy material.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System-1) Play Against home teams against the money line like Carolina after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game against opponent, after two straight blowout wins by three goals or more. Since 2005, this system is 24-8.

Free Football Trend-2) This is a surprising angle, Boise State is 1-10 ATS as road favorite off a SU nonconference win.

Free Football Pick -3) Greg of the Left Coast Connection believes Tulsa will give Boise State a game. He expressed that it will be the defense, not the offense is what will matter most for the Golden Hurricane to stay in this contest. With that said, his best best is UNDER in tonight's contest.

Guaranteed Play from Paul Buck tonight, he's on fire.

The Platinum Sheet is a terrific resource for the sports bettor.

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Tulsa looks for the upset of Boise State

More than one person circled this game as a potential downfall for an unbeaten season for Boise State. The Broncos have only played one real complete game, which was against Bowling Green, winning 49-14. Boise State’s (5-0, 4-0 ATS) quest for perfection continues in Tulsa, where another offensive-minded team is awaiting.

It will be of interest to see the mood of the Broncos after a sleep-walking 34-16 performance against Cal-Davis at Boise, gaining a season-low 101 yards on the ground.

“I’m frustrated with a couple different phases,” Boise State coach Chris Petersen said. “Too many penalties, when you can’t score inside the 4 and 5 yard line when you have multiple tries, that’s frustrating.

“We’ll have their attention without question here and get a few things corrected.”

Coach Peterson would never say publicly, but he knows this is great opportunity to showcase his team for the pollsters, to a national cable audience against a 4-1 Tulsa club that has respectable reputation nationally.

Boise State’s 21st ranked defense is sure to be tested by Tulsa, though this is not the offensive juggernaut of the last few seasons. Tulsa offense averages 414.2 yards per game (35th), however that is against defenses that have allowed 413 YPG. In other words, the Golden Hurricane (3-1 ATS) is only average based on the competition.

Boise State needs to do a better job finishing scoring drives. They have scored touchdowns on just 16 of 27 red-zone trips, including six visits that resulted in zero points. The Broncos have covered the spread seven straight times and nine of last 11 and are 6-1 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

Tulsa needs a fast start to grab the momentum, which in absorbing challenge since nobody has scored in the first quarter against Boise State. Quarterback G.J. Kinne, ranks seventh in FBS passer rating (don’t ask how that works) and has thrown for 1,142 yards with 10 touchdowns to only two interceptions. Tulsa has been balanced in getting into the end zone with nine rushing touchdowns and 11 through the air. The Golden Hurricane has three prime time contests ahead, but a win here brings a great deal of attention to team that is 6-2 ATS as home underdog since 2003.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State posted as 9.5-point favorites, but the Broncos are just 3-8 ATS in the first of two road games. Coach Peterson’s squad is 12-3 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season. Tulsa’s defense ranks 27th nationally at 299.2 yards per game and can’t afford a shootout since they are 3-13 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last three seasons.

These teams were WAC partners earlier this decade, with Tulsa 0-4 and 2-2 ATS. This is a rare treat for Coach Todd Graham’s squad and Tulsa is 7-3-1 ATS hosting Top 25 teams.

ESPN has the coverage commencing at 8 Eastern.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It seems a little dull, at least at this time that Florida and Alabama are clearly the two best teams in the country and not much excitement stands in their way until they play in one BSC semifinal game again this year, referred to as the SEC Championship Game brought to by Dr. Pepper. (No money changed hands for product mention; it’s just how the announcers promote the game).

On Saturday afternoon, Alabama played a version of Bear Bryant football in smothering Ole Miss 22-3 as four point favorites. The Crimson Tide was effective enough against a very good Rebels defense (the score could have easily been 40-3) and moved the ball and played outstanding defense. Quarterback Jevan Snead looks like a not ready for primetime player and coach Houston Nutt will have to do serious damage control to save this season and his signal caller.

Later, Florida’s defense so thoroughly bottle up LSU on their home turf, they looked like they could stop the recession in conceding a measly 162 yards. Offensively, coach Urban Meyer was very cautious, having Tim Tebow play, but never exposing him to a lot of big hits. If you noticed, Tebow went down in piles more readily to protect himself.

Texas dropped to No.3 in the pools, but that is no big deal since they are the top team in the other quasi-bracket as long as they keep winning.

If I were an Iowa fan, I’d be very nervous about trip to Madison this week. Granted, the Hawkeyes have had success at Camp Randall; however, they have surrendered 49 total points the last two weeks and have given 145 or more yards on the ground in half their games this season. Bettors have taken Iowa from short favorite to 2.5-point underdog quickly.

Though the line didn’t move virtually all week, Connecticut was receiving a lot of love from handicappers in forums, based on their defensive play. Pittsburgh was a seven point favorite right up until game time and had a chance early to blow them out, but a dropped pass for touchdown and an overthrow for another by QB Bob Stull left the Panthers without points. Connecticut capitalized on Pittsburgh’s mishaps and built a 21-6. At that point, the Panthers went on the prowl and ended up with a 489-305 yards advantage. After coming back to tie the score at 21-21, Pitt was moving the ball effortlessly and had first and goal at the three and gave backers hope for a well-deserved push or win. Instead, they plowed the ball three times into the middle of the line and were all too pleased to kick game winning field goal. They have a game at Rutgers this Friday and the underdog is 6-1 ATS.

UCLA held Oregon in check with the Ducks using backup quarterback Nate Costa and led 3-0 at halftime, catching 3.5-points as home underdog. Well, faster than you can University of California, Los Angeles, Oregon opened the second half with kickoff return for touchdown, a Pick Six interception and engineered a 53-yard touchdown drive off another UCLA turnover in less than four minutes, rendering Bruins betting tickets useless.

Auburn looked liked paper Tigers as Arkansas had a superior offensive game plan and was shredded by the Razorbacks for 495 yards and 28 first downs. Arkansas contained the Tigers explosive offense for over 40 minutes before they had a few big plays against them in easy 44-23 whipping.

The SEC is very top heavy this season. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt both lost in non-conference action as favorites and Kentucky gave South Carolina fits in 28-26 cover. Georgia was destroyed by Tennessee, with the much maligned Jonathan Crompton having career game with four TD passes.


Study the numbers

This has been reported here for weeks and is deserves your attention. It is imperative to find the early numbers on totals in college football and if you have access to the up to the minute figures on Saturday’s, you have to start finding these. This season in college football, totals that have moved three or moves points in either direction have been correct 79-35-1, 69.2 percent. That is money waiting to be made and the oddsmakers haven’t been able to work it fast enough either as 25-9 (73.5 percent) record proves the last two weeks. If you don’t know where to find the earliest lines, send me email doug_isllc@yahoo.com.

Did you know CFB underdogs have yet to have a losing week this season? At 20-20 ATS opening week, they are 137-109-2, 55.7 percent. The last three weeks, dogs catching 10 or more points are 41-21, 66.1 percent.

In the NFL, after a 5-11 against the spread start, home dogs have started to bark the last couple of weeks with 7-3 ATS record. This seems to happen every year of late, mostly in the first half of the season, but teams traveling three time zones are 2-6 ATS thus far.

It is being widely discussed that oddsmakers have a real issue concerning the best teams playing the worst teams. How high a number do you place on teams like St. Louis, Oakland or Tampa Bay when playing one of the better NFL teams? This is bore-out in this simple method. The last two weeks, team’s over .500 playing against teams with a record below .500 are 8-3 ATS.

Good Luck this week!

Dodgers and Phillies NLCS Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers were dismissed in five games by the eventual World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies last October and believe they have advantages 12 months later in their favor. Though the Dodgers lack a true No.1 ace, manager Joe Torre is confident he can matchup with the Phillies better by mixing and matching to situations and still have added depth to turn to a pitcher that was a starter during the regular season if his chosen starter struggles early.

In last year’s NLCS, Los Angeles started five right-hand pitchers. Expect to see lefties Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf in the first four games as starting pitchers to hopefully combat Philly sluggers Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Torre is still contemplating who the other starters will be, but rest assured he will put Los Angeles in the best position to win the series based on his history.

On offense, a year’s experience should be invaluable to L.A. Last year they were loose in sweeping the Cubs, but everyone but Manny Ramirez puckered up once the next round came about. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are the two most likely keys for the Dodgers offense; however the bottom of the order can also play an important role and Torre likes the experience from players like Casey Blake to deliver.

This is the Dodgers eight NLCS and first back to back in 31 years. Ironically, exactly half of their appearances in this round of the postseason have been against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are looking to make a historical statement with visions of becoming the first NL team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds. Philadelphia in fact is the first National League team to make consecutive appearances in the NLCS since Atlanta in 1995-96. It’s hard to fathom the Phillies will shutdown like St. Louis did against the Dodgers in the first round, since they led the league in home runs, scoring and most extra bases hits. The quartet of Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Howard and Utley were the first group of Phillies to hit 30 or more home runs in a season.

Look for Cole Hamels to be Game 1 starter. Though the lefty has not been nearly as effective as last season, he’s rested and loves pitching at Dodger Stadium. In three starts in L.A., Hamels has pitched 23 innings, allowing three runs on 15 hits, striking out 17 and walking just five batters. In his career he is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA facing Los Angeles hitters.

Expect manager Charley Manuel to save Cliff Lee for Game 3 at home, which gives him ample rest and also makes him available for Game 7 on normal rest if needed. Manual will piece together the rest of rotation and expect Chan Ho Park to be added to the bullpen.

Based on the body of work, the Dodgers have distinct edge in the bullpen. Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill have been lights out for opposing teams for six weeks. Though Brad Lidge picked up two saves in the NLDS, it was out of necessity, not desire. The skipper Manuel had used up all other options in both situations and played the percentages in utilizing Lidge and escaped both times. Has last season’s most dominant closer regained enough confidence to be called upon again, only Manuel knows with fingers crossed inside his pockets.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Dodgers 11th Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Ptc. Dodgers 7th Philadelphia 1st
Walks Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 7th
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 8th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Dodgers 2nd Philadelphia 9th
Walks Dodgers 8th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 4th
Errors Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 2nd


Key Numbers- The Dodgers won the season series 4-3 and are 9-5 at home against the Phillies and 4-8 in the City of Brotherly Love the last three years. Los Angeles is among the best teams in baseball at home with 52-31 record and is 71-47 against RH starters. Torre’s club was only average in games decided by three or less runs with 59-51 record. Though playing in a weak division, the Dodgers are 20-6 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road record during the regular season at 48-33 and picked up two more wins in Colorado. Conventional wisdom has the Phillies being stymied against left-hand pitching; however a deep and versatile lineup is 29-16 against port-siders. The Phils have been much better in closer contests with 56-41 record with games decided by three or less runs.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Dodgers -120, Phillies Even

Light day but lots of great information

We got hammered yesterday, mostly because of hockey, which I personally feel is impossible to bet early, but I don’t follow it as closely this time of year either. Today not a heck of a lot happening so we will mostly look to the future. Good Luck

What you should know- College basketball is going to be here before you know it. This can be a challenging sport to win at with so many teams and games to choose. One of the keys to a fast start is having the right information about all the teams and NOBODY does a better job the Blue Ribbon Yearbook. Their annual is the most comprehensive in the industry by far. I’ve gotten to know Chris Dortch, the man behind this incredible product, and his dedication to this publication is second to none. Information is key to winning at sports betting and Blue Ribbon has what you need with in-depth team reports. Every college hoops analyst uses this book, why shouldn’t you? You can order online or call 1.877.807.4857 and tell the operator you heard about it from 3Daily Winners.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Arizona Wildcats off an extremely close road loss by three points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system checks in at 31-7, 81.6 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) Al Groh of Virginia is 0-8 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points.

Free Football Pick -3) Thee LCC is pretty split on tonight’s Sun Belt showdown with Arkansas State getting just over 53 percent of the play, which makes sense to me since the underdog has covered NINE in a row, with five straight upsets.

Guaranteed Play Tuesday from Paul Buck who is 34-22, 60.7 percent on CFB sides.

The Platinum Sheet has invaluable info for the sports bettor.

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Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

We’ve all heard veteran NFL players talk about the league as “just a business”. If you think of the National Football like say a McDonald’s, you have 32 franchisees within its framework. While Mickey D’s would never allow certain bone-headed people to be in charge of their operations, on Sunday, we saw the differences in a well-run franchise and one’s that should be going out of business or at least hanging signs “Under new ownership”.

The slogan “Pride and Poise” associated with the Oakland franchise is hilarious today and should be replaced with “Polluted and Pitiful”. On Sunday, the Raiders were down 28-0 before registering a first down. JaMarcus Russell is setting new standards for quarterback play in the NFL; even Ryan Leaf will soon be forgotten.

When Al Davis moves on to the big black and silver cloud in the sky, he will have ruined a legacy of innovation and excellence for decades, by not knowing when to step away and being a meddler. Oakland’s ability to overpay for unworthy talent and ridiculous draft choices is now looked upon as “well its Oakland”. As written by Len Pasquarelli of ESPN, of the Raiders 56 viable possessions (not including drives with under two minutes in the half) they have 34 series that lasted three plays or less and 40 that were for five snaps or fewer.

Contrast that with the Giants, a well run franchise, with coach Tom Coughlin as head coach. Coughlin had the good sense to reinvent a part of himself and an underachieving team responded by winning a Super Bowl and has been an annual contender for years. New York was easily more than a two touchdown favorite and the word out of Giants camp was Coughlin was preaching all week not to take the Raiders lightly, stay focused and play our game. New York’s diligence in listening was rewarded with several starters not playing more than two-thirds of the game and virtually all the reserves saw considerable action in 44-7 pasting.

The same was true in St. Louis, as certain folks believed Minnesota might be flat on short week and playing road game against winless Rams. The Vikings went off as 10.5-point favorites and whether they were ready to play or not, it was impossible to tell because of the Rams ineptness. St. Louis is another franchise that has been run aground and at least has made an attempt to change with new people in all keys management positions. But with a shocking lack of talent, this isn’t one of those Miami Dolphins turnarounds, this will take time.

Whatever your opinion of Brett Favre, give the Vikings front office their due, they are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) for the first time in six years and pegged the person they believed could make them a true Super Bowl contender.

Oakland, St. Louis, Minnesota and the Giants all know what lies ahead for 2009 and their perspectives are very different.

You had to be really impressed with Atlanta coach Mike Smith and how his staff wisely used the bye week. The Falcons used new toy TE Tony Gonzalez like a child, throwing to him over and over again in the first few games, making their home-run hitter and budding star Roddy White an afterthought. Smith had QB Matt Ryan intent on throwing the ball on the perimeter; against what were thought to be very good San Francisco corners. Ryan was on target and White caught eight passes that he turned into 210 yards in Falcons flushing of the Niners 45-10 as one-point underdogs. Interestingly, the money came all Sunday morning on Atlanta, starting the day as 2.5-point underdogs. Next Sunday’s game with Chicago is tantalizing.

While Cincinnati is well-known for its frugal methods (cheap in the real world) they deserve accolades for staying with coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have had a series of injury-plagued seasons and lacked the depth to replace with quality players. Carson Palmer, either being injured or playing hurt, has cost them in two of the last three seasons. Cincinnati has played five games with each contest being decided by a touchdown or less, but at least they are finding ways to win with rededicated Cedric Benson on offense and more aggressive defense. The Cats host Houston and they are 5-13-2 ATS as non-division home favorites.

In the first half, the Dallas Cowboys players where shaking their heads after every bad play, a real sign of each player on his own page. Yes, they sucked it up and came back and defeated Kansas City in non-cover 26-20, but when you consider Oakland defeated the Chiefs in four quarters, that’s a real cause for concern. We’ll see how much it means after their bye week.

I’m convinced the Houston Texans will never be more than a 9-7 team and hardly ever worse than 7-9 with Matt Schaub at quarterback. Houston’s game against Arizona sums up Shaub in a nutshell. The Texans never scored in the first half, trailing 21-0. Shaub finally got in sync with his receivers and Houston scored 21 unanswered points to tie the score at 21. With a chance to drive his team to take the lead, Shaub stared down his receiver like he was looking at Megan Fox, and frequently burned Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie intercepted the pass for a Pick Six. Shaub did drive his team back down the field for tying score, but threw a jittery pass in the end zone and missed open receiver on great play call. The Texans are in the midst of playing four of five on the road and chances are they are just as likely to be a good bet as bad. Next up is Cincinnati and Houston is 44-44 ATS since joining the league against the AFC.

Surprised the Raiders aren’t trying to make deal for Derrick Anderson after he was 2 for 17 and Cleveland still won and covered. To Anderson’s credit he actually completed one more pass making his completion percentage 15 percent, it just happen to be to Buffalo player. Cleveland ended 10-game losing streak (1-8-1 ATS) at Buffalo and heads to Pittsburgh where they are 1-9 (3-7 ATS) since becoming the Browns again in 1999.

Coach Dick Jauron and his offensive staff are clueless. They acquire Terrell Owens and have no idea how to get him the ball. The Bills are like somebody who always fries steaks in a pan, because the meat is usually cheap. Somebody buys them a sharp new grill and some beautifully tender porterhouse steaks to grill up. Instead, what do these people do with delicious looking meat, what they always, fry it in the pan. Unless Buffalo miraculously wins its next three games before the bye, I wouldn’t stray too far from the phone if I was Jauron, who is 4-13 and 6-11 ATS since opening 4-0 in 2008.

Columbus Day Stuff

Not too thrilled with the 1-2 day, as San Francisco didn’t bother to even show up, a first in Mike Singletary era. We have system play in the NFL tonight at 29-6. Our Free Picks offer both hockey and baseball and found a solid trend on the ice tonight. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- While it’s easy to pick on the Denver Broncos uniforms, I wonder who pays for those uniforms and how much they cost? Yet these NFL teams would never think about lowering ticket prices. If I owned a NFL team and I had a game that was going to be blacked out in my town, I would have an online lottery signup for remaining tickets, charging $10.00 per entry. The winners get to go to the game for just ten bucks, but the place is full, plus the team and stadium receives all the parking and concession revenue. Those that did not win print their online receipt and can use it at the team’s gift shop (online or in person) or take it to local bars you’ve made deals with and get $10.00 off the price of food or drink and can watch the game there.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON team like the Jets who are an average offensive team scoring 18-23 points per game, against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This system clocks in at 29-6 ATS, 82.9 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Colorado Avalanche are 6-22 off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Free Hockey and Baseball Pick -3) Our top hockey producer is betting Nashville on the money line tonight. I’ve put money on Philadelphia to wrap up series tonight on Coldarado.

Monday Night Magic is Guaranteed NFL Play.

Young Studs key in AFC East Battle

For the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, four games into the season look a little different than most anticipated. As they prepare for a division game on Monday, how these are where they are and the outcome of the game is not lost on the teams and fans alike.

New York (3-1 SU&ATS) drafted Mark Sanchez and believed he could help them right away, however very few outside the Jets locked room thought their first round pick would play this well this soon.

Yes, Sanchez did have a few rookie moments in loss to New Orleans last week, but that is to be expected and he has embraced his position in the Big Apple and has been an important cog in the wheel to New York’s fast start. The next step in Sanchez’s career development is how he bounces back from adversity, especially on the road, where the Jets are 6-0 ATS at Miami.

Coach Rex Ryan’s pressure tactics are paying dividends, with is club fourth in total defense at 277.7 yards per game and third in points allowed at 14.2. It’s of significance, Miami is 4-13 ATS at home vs. teams yielding 285 or less yards per game.

The Dolphins (1-3 SU &ATS) off last year’s complete turnaround that produced an AFC East title, expected to keep moving in the same direction. However, three straight losses to start the season were more shocking than recent pictures of Kevin Federline. Though the Dolphins run for 183.5 yards per game (1st in the NFL) they still lack explosion on offense. Part of it is how they’ve been built with Chad Pennington as the quarterback, using the running game and controlled passing. That is out the window with the former Jets QB on the shelf again, and a stronger armed Chad Henne takes over, with less actual playing experience than his counterpart Sanchez.

All division games take on added importance and this one just became more so for both teams with New England being upset at Denver Sunday. A win gives the Jets back the lead in the AFC East and a Miami victory makes it two in a row and places them just one game behind the Pats and Flyboys.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York favored by 2.5 with total of 36. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in October off a SU and ATS loss and in revenge spot against opponent (Lost to Miami 24-17 in last meeting). The Jets are 17-5 UNDER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards. The Dolphins are 19-6 UNDER after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in last game and could be in favorable situation with underdogs 8-1 ATS in Miami’s last nine pre-bye week games.

New York covers if they contain Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense. Coach Ryan has faced the Wildcat in the playoffs with Baltimore last year and attacked Brown up the middle and outside defenders stayed home to contain Brown. With cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Lito Sheppard, the Jets secondary should be able to handle ordinary Fins pass-catchers and stuff the box with run stoppers and blitz Henne like he’s seeing a green and white squadron. On offense, building an early lead is important, since that means Sanchez doesn’t have to do as much and run play action to attack Miami safeties that are much better against the run than the pass.

Miami covers if they control the line of scrimmage and maintain possession of the pigskin. Sanchez is a good rookie quarterback, but he’s not Peyton Manning. They Jets have given up 280 yards total on the ground the last two weeks, primarily outside the A and B gaps. Brown and Ricky Williams should test them. Henne has the arm to at least stretch the field beyond 10 yards, which could mean crossing patterns for solid route runners like Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to move the chains and get the secondary away from the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins are second against the rush (61 YPG), which could force the New York to throw more than they prefer. Chances are Braylon Edwards will not be as much a factor this early.

Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road last week against a team that covered at home at the same time. (18-6 ATS)

In Search of Sunday Success

A very sharp Saturday for 3Daily Winners as we were 3-1, if you include earlier Washington State system play this week. Let’s see if we can keep the winning go with a Best System play that is 26-5 since 1983! The Top Trend seems to be contrarian, but not 10-1 record. Kendall has been lighting them up in the NFL and offers his Best Bet. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- I got my backside handed to yesterday and accomplished an unusual feat. How often do sorry teams like Ball State, Iowa State and Kentucky all cover on the same day? I mean except for yesterday. Heavy sigh

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Free Football System-1) PLAY Against any team with average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. Over the last 26 years this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent. The Atlanta Falcons fit this losing profile.

Free Football Trend -2) The Arizona Cardinals are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall is 9-3 the last three weeks in the NFL and foresees a Carolina cover coming today.

Now tap today we have our Guaranteed NFC Game of the Day backed with perfect angle.

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NFL Week 5's Big Games

Of the various boggle the brain teams, Cincinnati has to be right at the top, as they are one beyond belief tipped pass away from being 4-0 this season. The Bengals play their third straight AFC North conflict and could wrestle first place away from Baltimore with the upset. What is wrong with the Cowboys that a trip to Kansas City wouldn’t fix? Atlanta and San Francisco tries to prove which team truly is on the rise in 2009. After a sluggish start, Arizona is back from a bye looking at Houston team that is similar to their club from a year ago. It’s another big test for unbeaten Denver with New England in the Mile High City.

Cincinnati at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Who would’ve thought this just over a month ago?…Cincinnati (2-2 ATS, 3-1 Ov) and Baltimore (3-1 ATS, 3-1 Ov) will be battling for the AFC North lead when they clash in Week 5. The Bengals have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises, boasting a 3-1 record, same as the Ravens. In fact, take away the tipped ball miracle play in Week 1 and Cincy is unbeaten right now with wins over Green Bay and Pittsburgh on its resume. Here, they’ll be looking to up their record in Baltimore to 4-3 under Marvin Lewis and win their third ATS win in four tries vs. a division foe. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS as a favorite under John Harbaugh and 6-2 ATS versus AFC North opponents, but are off the humbling setback in New England. Favorites in this series are on a 14-5 SU and ATS run.

Keys to the Game-

The Bengals have to catch some Flac, as in sack Joe Flacco to limit the Baltimore passing game. Keep DE Antwan Odom’s motor on high and have him keep after Flacco. Against the run, gap control is mandatory or the Ravens will run the ball down Cincy’s throat for four quarters. Cincinnati 10-1-1 ATS after playing Cleveland and it will be Carson Palmer’s job all day to read S Ed Reed’s keys and change plays off of his actions.

In Ravens loss to New England, too often various members of the secondary took bad angles, which led to poor tackling. This can’t happen against Chad Ochocinco and the dangerous Chris Henry, who is nightmare matchup for any team’s third cornerback. Baltimore has stopped Cincinnati’s straight ahead running game for years, but Cedric Benson has the speed to get wide and Brian Leonard is solid as one-cut-and-go runs. The Ravens have NFL’s top run defense, however Bengals aren’t pushovers anymore at 4.5 yards per carry. The Birds are 12-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 12

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -8.5, 42.

Dallas at Kansas City 1:00E FOX

After losing at Denver, Dallas (2-2 SU&ATS) continues its two week road trip through the AFC West with a trip to Kansas City. The Cowboys record as a road favorite dropped to 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS under Wade Phillips by losing to the Broncos, but more importantly, they lost another game in the NFC East standings. They’ll enjoy next Sunday off, important since Dallas is on a run of 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games. Kansas City (0-4 SU&ATS) is playing its second straight as host to an NFC East club, after coming up short 27-16 against the Giants. With that spread loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home vs. NFC opponents. The Cowboys have only visited Arrowhead Stadium once in the last 18 years (’98) and the home team is 4-0 SU & 2-0-2 ATS in the last four games of this series.

Keys to the Game-

Without Terrell Owens, teams no longer fear the Dallas deep passing attack. Roy Williams (who might not play) is a poor route runner as are many of the Cowboys receivers. Tony Romo isn’t always the most accurate passer and needs help from pass catchers to get more open and hang onto the ball. Dallas is 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and defensively needs to shutdown the Chiefs on first down, which sets up bring the house on third down. The Dallas pass rush has been anemic, but with K.C. 29th in pass offense, great time for the Boys to get happy.

Dallas is third in rushing yards at 163.7 yards per game, which would leave Kansas City with fewer possessions if they let them play keep away. Stop the Cowboys and look to discourage them since they allow 4.7 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are not making any big plays and have to in all three phases to pull the upset. A couple of big passing plays, an interception or fumble recovery and a long punt return gives the Chiefs a chance since they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Lastly, score touchdowns in the red zone and concede field goals in the same area, which would different this season.

3DWLine – Dallas by 8
Bookmaker.com Line – Dallas -7.5, 43.5

Atlanta at San Francisco 4:05E FOX

When Atlanta (2-1 ATS, 2-1Un) left the NFC West Division in 2002, it meant making fewer trips to San Francisco. That was welcomed news since the Falcons have struggled when visiting the Bay Area, and in fact, are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 adventures when visiting the 49ers. That one win came in the most recent trip though, in 2004, and now looks to make it two in row. Atlanta comes in at 2-1 and off its bye week, but the next seven games will make or break its chances for a second straight playoff appearance. San Francisco (4-0 ATS, 3-1Un) is 3-1 after shutting out St. Louis and very well could be 4-0. The 49ers seem to be restoring some long lost home field advantage, having gone 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS under Mike Singletary. Atlanta is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1999.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta has done a poor job against the run (25th) and has to shore up this area up against San Francisco who prefers to establish a ground game. Defensive tackles Trey Lewis and Thomas Johnson must be more stout in the A and B gaps and at least won’t have to fret about Frank Gore, who is out. The Falcons are 14-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in consecutive games. Atlanta brought in Tony Gonzalez to open up the passing game, but it shouldn’t be at the expense of Roddy White, who’s averaging only eight yards a catch. White is deep threat and home run hitter, use him.

San Francisco only manufactured 228 yards of offense in scoring 35 points last week against the Rams, thanks to three defensive scores. The lack of offensive punch is due to supposedly strong offensive line looking and acting worse than Jon Gosselin. This contingent needs to come together and start exploding off the ball and Birds D-Line is custom made to so. The defense is sixth overall and would be wise to take away Gonzalez and make Matt Ryan go after their excellent corners. The Niners are 6-0 ATS at Candlestick Park after covering the number.

3DWLine – San Francisco by 5.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – San Francisco -2.5, 40.5

Houston at Arizona 4:15E CBS

Two high-powered passing attacks, Houston & Arizona, will go head-to-head in what is expected to be a game featuring plenty of offensive fireworks. That should showcase the talents of the Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald and the Texans’ Andre Johnson. Both are big, strong receivers with excellent hands. The Cards have tended to come out of bye weeks not so chipper and are 11-3 UNDER in post-bye week games since 1994. The defending NFC champion Cardinals (1-2 ATS&UNDER) took last week off to find answers for their slow 1-2 start. The good news is they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams passing for more than 7.0 yards per attempt. Houston (2-2 ATS) has averaged 7.7 YPA in its 2-2 start, and comes in on a 7-1 ATS surge as an underdog. The Texans are 5-9 ATS when visiting NFC foes. This will be just the second time these teams have met, and the first time in Arizona.

Keys to the Game –

Houston is 29th against the run and if they can’t stop Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells (3.2 YPC), they have no business in talking about playoff possibilities. The Texans have been blitzing a lot, yet have only five sacks to show for their efforts. Kurt Warner is a top five quarterbacks with protection, however in the bottom 25 percent when pressured. Houston is 4-14 ATS as road underdog off a conquest and they will add one more to the right side of the ledger unless they get Steve Slaton started (Texans 3.2 YPC). Run screens, quicker hitting plays, whatever it takes, since Matt Schaub’s effectiveness shrinks without running game.

Knock, knock. Who’s there? The 2009 season! Arizona players and coaches said they were unaffected by Super Bowl loss, yet based on actions; they appear to be less than truthful. Start with protecting Kurt Warner. Yes, he’s going to hang on the ball too long, this isn’t news to those wearing Cardinal red. Give him time to make the throws. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is calling the plays, hey a coach, your receivers are REALLY good, throw them the ball. Arizona is 16-5 ATS in home games versus mediocre defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards a play, punish them. On defense, the Redbirds can stop the run, they have to protect against the big pass play.

3DWLine - Arizona by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – Arizona -5.5, 50

New England at Denver 4:15E CBS

There will be plenty of hype surrounding the New England-Denver showdown, for more than the coaching matchup, as Bill Belichick takes on his former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. Surprisingly, it is McDaniels that is receiving more accolades, with his team atop the AFC West. With a 4-0 SU & ATS record and the NFL’s best defense at 6.5 points per game allowed, the Broncos continue a treacherous eight-game stretch as three-point home dogs to the 3-1 Patriots. Belichick’s club is seemingly regaining its footing as QB Tom Brady becomes more comfortable. New England (2-2 ATS) boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a touchdown in the Belichick era. The last seven games these teams have played in Denver have averaged 48 points per contest, while going OVER the total six times.

Keys to the Game-

It must be the altitude, because New England is 3-10 ATS in Denver. The loss of Fred Taylor means Laurence Maroney better get his game together quickly, since the Patriots need offensive balance against the No. 3 pass defense. The Pats showed great improvement last week in the red zone, converting touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, that must continue. This had to be a cerebral week of practice for the New England offense, since McDaniel is the one that set it up. The Brady bunch has to use false keys and give new looks to the same plays to confuse Denver D. New England is 7-1 ATS off consecutive covers.

The Broncos defense is the most important aspect of quick start and they have the secondary that can allow Denver to blitz Brady, much in the fashion the Jets did in holding the Patriots to nine points. New England shows up at eighth in total defense, but they are surrendering 4.5 yards per carry. The Denver’s offensive line is good enough to tie up Pats D-Line, and a set of ordinary linebackers will get caught in the scrum. See if the Pats can really contain the run. The Broncos can reverse trend of 4-12 ATS record off a home game by making big plays like last week. Look for Brandon Marshall and get the ball to Eddie Royal short to restore his confidence.

3DW Line – Denver by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -3, 41