Line Movement Underscores Oddsmakers Habits

It is seemingly more automatic than gas prices going up daily, if the home team wins Game One to start the series, the next contest; the visiting team catches fewer points. Boston went off in the opener as three-point home favorite and has opened as two-point favorites for Game Two. The logical conclusion is made the road loser will be fired up and potentially provide a more inspired effort. After watching first matchup, you have to wonder will the Lakers do so. (It's a cheap attention getting photo, I know.)

For vast expanses of the first three quarters, Los Angeles was the better team in this reporter’s eyes, playing more effortlessly and being able to score when needed and able to play at Boston pace (not sure why). The Celtics defense was fixated on Kobe Bryant, doubling him on the perimeter, leaving Paul Gasol to roam free for easy, yet somehow awkward dunks and layups.

After a fast start, Kevin Garnett would missed the Boston Harbor throwing crates of tea off the British ship, badly aiming nine misguided shots. Ray Allen played both young and old in various trips down the court. Paul Pierce, what can you say about Paul Pierce? His Lazarus-like comeback in the same quarter, in which he was so badly (?) injured, could only have been fed by one thing. The ghost of Red Auerbach was making Pierce drink that Vitamin water that has helped Shaq become a jockey and LeBron a winner in the court of law.

Though clearly within striking distance, after Pierce’s near death experience and astonishing revival, the Lakers played like they had a leaky heart valve in the fourth quarter. The Los Angeles squad that was 31-15-2 ATS on the road coming into the game, left backers wanting more. Kobe wasn’t Kobe in the fourth quarter, off kilter by Boston’s alert double teams. He forced shots, missed open ones and probably felt he was being guarded by a nine-foot tall picket fence. Though he was dismissive about his 17 missed shots, "Nah, I just missed some bunnies. I just missed some really, really good looks." It was evident the Celtics defense was a conundrum for the league’s MVP.

A poignant moment in the fourth quarter, with the Celtics up six points about three and change left on the clock, was a mad scramble for the ball on the Lakers end off a missed shot. Two Boston players went diving for the ball; Vlad Radmanovic bent over and REACHED for the orange sphere. In the game’s most critical juncture, the guys in the white uniforms wanted it more their purple-clad counterparts. This was also shone on the glass as the more brutish Celtics out-rebounded the Lakers by 13.

The C’s showed why they are 20-9 ATS versus quality teams, outscoring their opponents by three or more points a game this season. KG, despite shooting issues, was a tiger on defense and helped will his team to victory. When Rome, or in this case Boston was crumbling, Pierce showed by he has the ‘C’ on his uniform, as he led his team when they needed it most. The Celtics are now 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning road record.

Phil Jackson is a zen master; he’ll test Bryant’s manhood in some manner in the time before the last whistle Thursday and Sunday night’s tipoff. Jackson will devise plays to free up Kobe closer to the basket, challenge Gasol to understand this is the NBA Finals, not another nice showing like he used to have in Memphis. He’ll explain to Lamar Odom, he’s far more valuable on the floor, than sitting on the bench with foul trouble.

Bettors believe the Lakers are hardly in trouble off one loss and wagering outlets now have L.A. as one-point favorites with total at 190.5. Los Angeles is 17-7 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season and comprehends they can not go down 0-2 to the best defensive team in the league. Boston roughed up the Lakers a bit and it obvious they enjoyed it. What bettors have to beware of is the Celtics have not covered three in a row since beating Atlanta in Game 2 of the playoffs first round, with carry over from the regular season.

What team will have the bigger heart, the story unfolds Sunday night at 9 Eastern.

(Photo credit goes to GABRIEL BOUYS/AFP/Getty Images.)

3Daily Winners Betting News, Saturday June 7

Tough day yesterday, however like all smart bettors, you get up, dust yourself off and look to work harder, which is what will happen. Today we have a rock solid system on an American League contest, winning 78.3 percent of the time. Though it lost yesterday, we have another 100 percent Trend today. We’ll look to take the Free pick to 7-1 in last eight later today. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home teams like the White Sox with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL), against opponent with a cold starting pitcher like Livan Hernandez, with a WHIP of 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. (8.31 ERA, 2.250 WHIP) This system is 36-10, 78.3 percent over the L5Y.
Trend – 2) Boston is 14-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season.

FREE Selection -3) Our thanks to Slick Rick for a great run, going 6-1 on Free picks and we’re certain he will be back. I’ll take a turn and take the Cardinals tonight.

3Daily Winners Wagering Plays, Friday June 6

Slick Rick is a man on a mission with SIX winning Free picks in a row here and building a huge bankroll for himself. He goes after lucky seven tonight. The System play is one of the best we’ve had this season, at 87.5 percent in over 50 games. Another perfect Trend play is also in order. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Baltimore with a money line of +150 or more, who struggles to score runs (4.2 or less runs a game) against a team with a very good bullpen like Toronto (ERA 3.33 or less), with the Orioles having a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. This system is money, at 49-7, 87.5 percent.

Trend – 2) Seattle is 0-13 against the money line after two or more consecutive Overs this year.

FREE Selection -3) Slick Rick from the Left Coast Connection has provided us with SIX straight winners, all for FREE. Over the last 11 days he is +22.25 units, betting baseball smartly. His play tonight is on Florida.

3Daily Winners Betting Info, Thursday June 5

When a smart sports bettor is on a roll, it is a thing of beauty, which is exactly what Slick Rick is on. He’s making money like he has a printing press and already gave us the Cardinals today from last night’s rainout. He’s out for six straight tonight on FREE selections. As has happened since we started this feature, the System play bounced back off a loss and tonight has one going that is 19-2 the last five years. The Trend play goes for two in a row, looking towards the American League. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Texas, with a money line of +100 to +150, with a starting pitcher like Kevin Millwood (3-3, 1.593 WHIP), whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for six or more runs. (Allowed nine last night) Since 2004, this system is a special 19-2, 90.4 percent.

Trend – 2) The Texas Rangers are 15-3 OVER against AL Central opponents this season.

FREE Selection -3) Slick Rick from the LCC is really on a great run here at 3Daily Winners and emailed me early today that he was staying with St. Louis in Game 1 after rainout. As expected he was correct raising his record to 5-0 in MLB selections and he’s now a silly +20.25 units the last 10 days betting baseball. He’s suggesting Boston to sweep the Rays tonight, are you going to bet against him?

Betting Info for Game 1 NBA Finals

If David Stern and the rest of the NBA minions are smiling ear to ear, hard to blame them, as they couldn’t have drawn up a more perfect match for the NBA Finals. We have enough NBA championship banners hung in the rafters to curtail the affects of global warming in this country (includes those from George Mikan era). For nostalgia buffs, names like Bill Russell, John Havlicek, Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West and Elgin Baylor have been mentioned, along with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. This matchup brings back memories of the old, to go along with making new memories from the present.

Among the fascinating aspects of these Finals, is offense vs defense confrontation. The Boston Celtics were considered the best defensive team in the NBA this season, though Detroit ended up allowing the fewest points by .02. (90.1 vs 90.3) Boston was by far the best defensive team in the NBA according to John Hollinger of ESPN, using defensive efficiency ratings. In fact, according to his rating system, the Celtics are the third best defensive team in the last 35 years, which is how far back all the numbers relating to system go.

This style of basketball would never fly in Los Angeles on the professional level. It works fine at college campus’ like UCLA and USC, however this is Tinsel-Town and the patrons are expecting to be entertained. The Lakers finished fourth in the league in scoring at 108.6 points a game and was the only one among the four that paid homage to defense. Pau Gasol became the missing piece to a surprisingly potent L.A. team. In the 41 games of the Gasol era, the Lakers have been the best team in offensive efficiency in the NBA, which is quite remarkable considering 16 of those games have coming during more defensive-minded playoff basketball.

Another intriguing aspect of the Finals, is the lightly-regarded point differential of the regular season. In the last six years, the team that finished with either the first or second largest scoring margin has gone on to win the title four times. This season, Boston was first at +10.3 points and Los Angeles was third at +7.3 points.
Boston is 7-2 ATS against teams with winning road records (31-17, 31-15-2 ATS on the year) and will have to decide how to guard Kobe Bryant in the opener. In the prior two meetings, they didn’t go anything radical, seldom using double teams and changed on all screens. What they did do is go underneath on screens, trying to do two things. Take away driving lanes for Bryant to go to the basket for fouls and make him a jump shooter. Kobe piles up points methodically when he starts marching to the line. This is what the C’s want to prevent and it has worked, since they are 12-3 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams, making 76 percent of their attempts since the 42-game mark of the season. Bryant, however, can drain jumpers at an alarming rate when in the groove. Boston will have to take that chance early at home.

Questions emerge about Gasol being in the spotlight, especially with the physical frontcourt players the Celtics possess. Kendrick Perkins confidence has grown with each Boston win, yet is Rajon Rando ready for primetime against Derek Fisher and his bling of three championship rings. Rando has severe quickness edge over Fisher and Phil Jackson will not hesitate to bring Jordan Farmar off the bench to match quicks. The Lakers are 8-3-1 ATS on the road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
In seven games series, a third scorer is frequently a difference-maker along with bench play. Will Ray Allen continue improved shooting or does chasing Kobe leave him with dead legs? Will Lamar Odom be focused enough quarter to quarter and not disappear for long stretches trying to find his place in the offense?

Most sportsbooks have Boston as a 2.5-point home favorite with Total of 192. L.A. is 15-7 ATS as a road underdog this year, the Celtics 29-20 against the spread as home favorite. Though these are vastly different teams from the past, seven of last 11 contests have gone Over in downtown Boston.

Checked with a number experts and the side and the total seems to be divided pretty evenly. I'll pass tonight and look towards Game 2 for wagering opportunity. I did take the Lakers at -190 to win the series.

3Daily Winners Betting Info, Hump Day, June 4

Slick Rick is putting smiles and money into the pockets of 3DW readers and is confident he can make it 5-0 tonight on his Free pick. The System has a rare loser yesterday and visits the Total, in the City of Brotherly Love. Today’s top Trend has a perfect record in 2008. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY UNDER any good offensive team like Philadelphia, against a good starting like the Reds Edinson Volquez (7-1, 1.46 ERA), who has an ERA under 3.70 in the NL, when the other teams pitcher, Brett Meyers (3-6, 1.582 WHIP) in this case, owns a WHIP between 1.550 to 1.650 on the season in the senior circuit. This respectable system is 36-9, 80 percent the last five years.

Trend – 2) Boston Red Sox are 13-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season.

FREE Selection -3) Slick Rick from the LCC is really on a great run here at 3Daily Winners with 4-0 record on his Free selections and he’s personally up outrageous +17.95 units the last nine days betting baseball. Tonight he’s on St. Louis, seeking another winner.

Good Luck figuring out 2008 Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves bring to mind Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde or maybe Sally Fields Emmy-winning TV-movie “Sybil” (1976), about a woman with multiple personalities. Whatever it is, Atlanta is either the easiest baseball wager of all-time or the most confounding team in years. We’ll start with the basics; Atlanta is 30-28, tied with the Mets for third place in the NL East, having lost -3.5 units of profit for backers. The Braves have a +51 run differential, which is extreme, considering National League teams with similar aren’t even close. The Mets are +2, Houston -12, and Milwaukee is -13.

On to the crazy stuff. Atlanta is 23-7 at Turner Field this season, second best in NL, gathering +13.6 units, when wagered upon. They score 5.6 runs a game at home, which trails only the Cubs and Philadelphia as homies. They hit a robust .307 when wearing the white uniforms and outscore the opposition by 1.9 runs per game. The Braves are a rock solid 14-4 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.
Contrast this with the same exact players that go on the road, with - Atlanta -stitched across their chest. After another lugubrious road trip that saw them post a 1-5 mark, Atlanta is league worst 7-21, burying those who might think they can turn it around, at revolting -17.1 units in just 28 games. "It's mind-boggling," Braves pitcher Tim Hudson said Sunday. "How good we can play at home, and how putrid we've been on the road."

Tom Glavine returned to the place of his greatest triumphs and has seen it all in his career and is adding another chapter. “It just seems like whatever can go wrong on the road has," Glavine said. "I've never been on a team like this -- money at home, and can't do anything on the road.” The veteran left-hander went on to say, “You have to figure that at some point we're going to start cooling off at home. But we'd better not, until we figure out how to win on the road."

In the numerical sense here is what Glavine understands. Philadelphia is on pace to win 92 games in the NL East. If the Braves were to play one game over .500 the rest of the year on the road (27-26), this would mean they would have to win 37 of last 55 home games, just to tie the Phillies. Granted, that would be below current home winning percentage, truth is nobody can reasonably expect to go 58-23 at home.

What is the problem for the Bravos on the road? Ranking 27th at 3.7 RPG on the road doesn’t help. After losing four one-run games on recent road excursion, manager Bobby Cox had a positive spin, "we've got a good club, because you're (we’re) right in everything." True enough, but another black cloud is hanging over this franchise. Atlanta has tied the Pittsburgh Pirates (1985 to 1986) for the most consecutive one run road losses at 20, dating back to August 10 of last season. The all-time record is within reach, with Kansas City at 21, covering the close of 2000 campaign, before ending in 2001. For the entire year, the Braves are 2-16 in games decided by a single run. The bullpen, in spite of Top 10 earned run average in baseball, is 0-8 in win/loss situations on the road, proving they are making the one critical mistake when team can least afford to do so.

Chipper Jones has said he felt the number of young players on the roster has contributed to strange anomaly, yet last year with essentially the same roster, they were 44-37 at “the Ted” and 40-41 as the visitor. Other quirky stats also make this situation hard to figure. Though the Atlanta hitters have scored far more runs at home than away, they strikeout more often at home (H 13th – R 5th). The Braves have shown more plate discipline as visitors, having the third most walks of any road team, compared to ninth versus other home squads. Though this statistic has proven not to as important as the radio and TV folks report, Cox’s club leaves the second most runners on base in home ballparks and is 18th on the road leaving runners on the base paths.

What can one conclude from the befuddling Braves? As opposed to football or basketball wagering, which frequently have the “due” factor, when it comes to betting baseball, ride the tide. Atlanta has a seven-game homestand against two of the teams ahead of them in the NL East, Florida and Philadelphia, suggesting keep playing on them in Hotlanta. When they go back on the road next Tuesday, to face the Cubs, back the home team decidedly.

3Daily Winners Betting Info, Tuesday June 3

Props to Slick Rick who has given out three Winners in a row here at 3Daily Winners and looks for #4 in the American League, Yawn, yawn, yawn, just another winning play from our MLB System yesterday. Tonight we have an 80 percent winner to pound. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Minnesota with a money line of -125 to -175, with a starting pitcher like Kevin Slowey, who gives up one or more HR's a start (6 in 6), after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs. This stunning system is 56-14, 80 percent the last five years and 3-1 in 2008.

Trend – 2) Colorado is 6-21 against the money line against NL West opponents in 2008.

FREE Selection -3) Slick Rick from the Left Coast Connection looks to make it three days in a row (3-0 at 3DW) with Winners, he’s personally up +14.95 units the eight days. Tonight he’s on Toronto, with Halladay as posted starter.

3 Daily Winners Betting Info, Monday June 2

A perfect 4-0 Sunday for followers here at 3Daily Winners. We’ll settle for 3-0 today, following are amazing Systems, which have an underdog in a 78.8 percent winning situation. The Trend suggests the hockey season could be coming to a close and our hot bettor from the LCC has his Top Play of the Day for FREE. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home teams like San Francisco, when the money line is +125 to -125; with a starting pitcher like Jonathan Sanchez (3-3, 4.26) whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), against opponent with a starting pitcher like Oliver Perez (4-3, 4.83), who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. In this case, Perez’s numbers are deceiving, as he averages less than six innings a start. This winning system is 41-11, 78.8 percent the last three years, including 4-0 in 2008.

Trend – 2) The Detroit Red Wings are 15-2 in last 17 Stanley Cup finals.

FREE Selection -3) Slick Rick from the Left Coast Connection is on a hot streak in MLB action, up +13.35 units the last week. He provided two winners yesterday and is on the Brewers with Jeff Suppan this evening.

Monday MLB Betting - Trends as your Friends

Whether it’s been a good or bad week for those betting on baseball, the beauty of the sport is it will start its 10th week of the season, meaning we’ve gone through a great deal already, with a whole lot more to go. As the week begins anew, here are a number of hot betting trends that will be less controversial than Rachael Ray wearing a scarf pushing Dunkin’ Donuts ice coffee.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are in first place in the AL West, despite having a team batting average of only .255, which is ninth in the junior circuit. They are thankful not to be their opponent, Seattle, tonight in the series opener between these division rivals who were supposed to be duking it out. The Mariners are the worst wager in the American League at 21-36, -18.1 units. They are 9-25 (-18.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season, losing by two runs a game.

The defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox have had their problems on the road this season at 14-19 and have lost -7.5 units. After starting 10-game road trip on the West Coast with 1-5 record, the Red Sox returned east and went a place where they have often felt welcomed and enjoyed success. Boston completes a four-game series in Baltimore, having taken the first three at Camdem Yards, moving record to 16-7 at the Orioles ball park. Boston is 24-6 when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

This just in, the Colorado Rockies smell worse than a week old opened can of Coors Light at 20-37 (-18.8 units). The Rockies own the worst record in the majors; have the most negative run differential in baseball at -74 and are otiose 8-23 on the road. Without Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday or Brad Hawpe, punch-less Colorado’s current 0-7 road trip continues in Los Angeles, being 6-23 vs. a good bullpen like the Dodgers, whose ERA is 3.75 or better in 2008.

If there is one team glad to be home today, it is the Atlanta Braves. The team has been one of the biggest mysteries in baseball this year, given their home/road dichotomy. After another sickly road trip that saw Atlanta go 1-5, they return to Turner Field to open up a seven game homestand against Florida and Philadelphia, who are both ahead of them in the NL East. The Braves confidence is boosted being 21-7 at home, winning by two runs a game.

The Chicago Cubs are starting to frighten fans of the lovable losers. With 100 years of failure in the books, the Cubs owned the best record in the major leagues on June 1, the last time that happened, 1908, which happens to be the year of last World Series championship season. Off a perfect 7-0 homestand, Chicago heads to the left coast to play San Diego and are 16-2 after four or more consecutive home games this season. The lovable Cubs are -165 money line favorites to open series and have won these games by better than three runs.

Sunday June 1, Three Daily Winners Betting Info

After our System play produced a comfortable 4-0 winner with Arizona yesterday, the numbers suggest to ride them again today, for far different reasons. Another extra inning loss on the Trend side suggests a little luck is needed more than anything and one of the best AL home teams is up today. The Free plays honestly have not been stellar of late, thus we turn Slick Rick to provide readers a couple of winners. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Arizona with a money line of -175 to -250, who are a solid fielding team, averaging less than a error every other game on the season, against opponent starting a pitcher like Shawn Hill, who walked five or more hitters last outing. This system is an amazing 42-6, 87.5 percent the last 11 seasons, winning by an average of 3.2 runs per game.

Trend – 2) Tampa Bay has second best records in the American League for home record (23-10) and units won (+12) and has won 19 of last 22 at “The Trop” in Tampa.

FREE Selection -3) Slick Rick from the Left Coast Connection is on a hot streak in MLB action, up +9.95 units the last six days and is backing the Giants and the Mets today.