Two Has Been’s Trying to Hang On

The Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns have been prominent teams in the NBA playoff picture for years, but their fall from hierarchy this season has been swifter than Mike Meyer’s recent film career failures. Both front offices tried to make adjustments as their fortunes were changing and the results have been less than positive. Both are in action Sunday afternoon and each is trying to find one last bit of magic to make a playoff run.

It only figures the Detroit Pistons are not hitting on all cylinders and are very reminiscent of General Motors and Chrysler, totaling up the losses. This is a club in turmoil. Rasheed Wallace returns after sitting out a one game suspension for reaching the league limit on technical fouls and has had returned to the ‘Sheed of old, being combustible player that has own agenda and snaps when restraint would be more beneficial to the team.

Richard Hamilton wants to see a change scenery, not leave Detroit, just not start the game from the bench and return to starters role. When Hamilton was suffering from groin injury he agreed to come off the bench if it helped the team.

"I said I would come off the bench as long as we win," Hamilton said. "But we've been losing. We are 4-12 (4-12 ATS also) with me coming off the bench. Something's got to give. Something's got to change. I am on board with doing whatever for the team but coming off the bench and we're not winning, that's something totally different." It turns out Rip got his wish, but possibly by default as Allen Iverson has been sent to the plastic chair, in part because of an ailing back. This means A.I. is coming off the bench for the first time in his career and you already know how well he’s going to take that demotion.

Sports bettors have noticed the spread losses also, though the Pistons are not as pitiful on the road at 13-14 and 14-13 ATS. Detroit will be in Boston for a 1 Eastern start on ABC and they are 8-18 ATS against teams with winning records this season and off the charts awful 1-9 against the spread in the second half of the season. The Pistons are a nine-point underdog at Bookmaker.com with a total of 189.

When Alvin Gentry agreed to take over the Phoenix Suns as coach, he probably believed a change to more preferred style would alter the fortunes of Phoenix and maybe they could make enough defensive stops with all the offensive firepower still on the roster. Yet, like reaching for a car door handle in July in downtown Phoenix, the Suns have been burned with bad luck.
In less then two weeks, All-Star Amare Stoudemire has been lost for the season, Steve Nash has gone down with a sprained ankle and what was already a thin bench has been stretched beyond reason. With Nash sitting, this means Goran Dragic and Alando Tucker are on the floor and suddenly the Suns take on a Timberwolves look.

If that weren’t bad enough, Grant Hill is hopelessly mismatched as a power forward and it is starting too make more sense why teams as Golden State and Charlotte were willing to trade Jason Richardson. As the losses have mounted, the Big Cactus (Shaquille O’Neal) has become a little more disinterested, since he wants to plays for rings, not to make the playoffs.
The Suns are 17-11 and 11-17 ATS at home and are 6-16 ATS after scoring 100 points or more three straight games this season. Having to face the best team in the NBA, the Lakers, twice in four days, is not what this team needs. Phoenix is 3-11 ATS when playing their third game in four days this season.

The Lakers are road favorites and have taken six of last seven with 5-2 ATS record versus the setting Suns. This Pacific Division tilt starts at 3:30 Eastern.

Saturday Specials

Well, .500 beats the heck out of zero, but is only halfway to where we want to go. Have a system play that is 88.5 percent in college hoops and has the look of winner as long as the favorite is interested. James Madison was our fourth president and makes a good play off being an underdog. It’s about time we hit a damn free play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like St. Mary’s, who own an eight point or bettor point differential, against a terrible team like Loyola-Marymount, who is just the opposite (- 8 or greater point differential) after 15 or more games and allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. That is a lot to let sink in, but it has been worth it at 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 1997.

Free Basketball Trend -2) James Madison is 13-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC is laying the lumber on Western Kentucky.

Let's Start the Weekend with Winners

We have certainly hit a stretch of poor action after another no-winning day. I have an awesome system today that is 87.1 percent and 5-0 this year, but please check the status of the players on selected team before passing judgment. Throwing two perfect NBA Top Trends at you today. I have an NBA play that will be my largest play of the season in Free Picks. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Boston, who own a point differential of seven or more points per game against an average team like Indiana (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. I would like to believe 27-4 ATS, 87.1 win percentage should float anybody’s boat.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS off a road loss this season and Minnesota is 0-9 ATS versus defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game, in the second half of this season

Free Basketball Selection -3) I’m lovin’ the Lakers against a Denver defense that has allowed 114.7 points in last four games.

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World Golf Championship Betting Blog –Friday

No, those wallowing sounds you heard weren’t the executives for the Golf Channel and ABC crying and moaning about their precious commodity Mr. Woods being eliminated (though it could have been), it was just the local coyotes howling. Tiger’s loss did prove he is human after all, that even a well tuned machine like him needs to play in competitive situations in order to get back to the top of his game after such a long layoff. Though this has nothing to do with the outcome, it is noticeable Woods has made a swing change with his irons. His feet are now closer together and left foot slightly open, which is designed to reduce the stress on the knee.

Besides the Tiger excitement and upset, three other matches went into extra holes, all won by seasoned veterans, Geoff Ogilvy, Luke Donald and Stewart Cink. Much like betting itself, match play shows you can be on the right or wrong side and still come away victorious or with a hard luck loss. Anthony Kim has an eagle and six birdies and lost and Sean O'Hair shot one over par and won his match against Boo Weekley.

Because were down to eight matches, the action doesn’t start to 12:45 Eastern, with some exceptional matchups. Probably the best matchup is Luke Donald and Ernie Els. Both players look to be at their best and Els now has the added benefit of not having to worry about Tiger, as has been his penchant in recent years. Els at -125 looks very tempting.

Phil Mickelson and Stewart Cink is another dandy, with two tough hombres. Most probably don’t remember Cink lost to Woods in the finals last year and Mickelson, isn’t playing to his fullest abilities, and yet keeps on grinding out wins. Take Lefty in a tight match.

My pick to win the tournament, Geoff Ogilvy, runs into the most dominate player, at least in terms of outcomes today. Camilo Villegas first two matches have been blowouts 7and 5 and 5 and 4. Villegas has the look of a champion and is actually a -120 favorite today.

Will Tim Clark have the same steely determination today? He’s a -125 favorite, however I believe tracking down a Tiger leaves you a little flat and Rory Mcllory picks him off.

My picks have been strictly play against material at 3-9 and here is what I see today.

Mickelson -140 over Cink

Poulter -130 over O’Hair

Furyk -155 over Fisher

Second Half NBA Comebacks and Failures

How many times have you heard somebody say “just watch the final five minutes of the game” when describing the NBA? The reasoning behind this statement is basically anything can happen for the first 43 minutes and it really doesn’t matter. Leads come and go, sometimes even quite large leads.

Since the 2003 season, do you know what the largest lead a team had in a game that they ended up losing straight up? (hint: it happened this season) I’ll give the answer at the end of the article. Maybe watching the final five minutes of a game is fine for a fan, but sports bettors need to know more about the dynamics of a game to assist them in handicapping.

I like to look at basic occurrences in a previous game or games and see how a team reacts in their next game. A dynamic that happens frequently in the NBA is when a team comes from being behind by a big margin to win the game outright. I wanted to see if there were any angles worth noting in a team’s next game after such a comeback victory. It would seem like a good spot for a letdown since the team has to be feeling pretty good about themselves to snatch victory from the hands of defeat. Plus, a letdown could occur as a team might have expended quite a lot of energy in their comeback. Starters might have played longer than normal so physical fatigue could be an issue. So could mental fatigue as comebacks require tremendous focus and intensity.

The time frame I used for my research was the beginning of the 2003 season onward and did not include any playoff games. I started with a basic situation of a team in their previous game being down by ten or more points at halftime but who came back in the second half to win the game. Teams that had this type of win in their previous game only covered the spread 41.8% of the time, 110-153, in their next game. This is an exceptionally easy angle to look for that has produced 58.1% winners betting against comeback winners since 2003. The Under had a slight edge at 52.1%.

I could end this article here and be pretty happy with providing that 58.1% stat all by itself. (it would also save me hours of work!) But, as always, it is good to try to find additional examples of winning angles to make money with.

I wanted to use halftime scores as they are more etched into players' minds than just taking the biggest point deficit during a game. There is discussion at halftime between coaches and players about first half-performance and how to play the second half with new strategies and ways to attack and defend the other team.

I did research on what happens in a team’s next game after they overcame a ten-point deficit at anytime during the game, not just halftime, and went on to win straight up. Whereas our halftime deficit of 10+ results in a 41.8% ATS rate in the following game, if the deficit occurred at anytime during the game there is a 48.0% ATS rate in the team’s next game. So a halftime margin is more important than a random one. Let’s add some qualifiers to our base trend, down by 10+ at half and winning the game. First, if our team is playing their next game without any rest, there was not much of an improvement betting against them but it did give us a totals situation worth considering with the Under happening in 56.2% of those games.

If our comeback team is favored in their next game they only cover the number at a 39.7% rate as compared to the dogs at 44.8%. Away favorites are 36.8% ATS and home favorites clock in at 40.8%. You don’t want to bet against home dogs, 51.4% winning ATS, but away dogs are only 42.1%. Another nice trend to note is the Under cashes tickets at a 65.8% clip for away favorites.

Would the competition in the next game make a difference in our results? Not in the case of whether the next opponent is a conference or non-conference foe as the ATS records are almost exactly the same in coverage rate. If the previous game where our team rallied to win was against a non-conference foe and now we are playing a divisional rival, the game goes Over the lined total 63.0% of the time. If the opponent in the previous game was a divisional one and this one is a non-conference game, playing against our team improves to a 65.2% mark. Beating a divisional rival after being down to them at halftime obviously carries more of a hangover for our team if they are playing a non-conference squad in their next contest.

I next looked at the location of the games. We did have an improvement of betting against our team from the base rate of 58.1% when no exact site was specified to 63.5% if both the previous game and the current game are on the road. The Under has a 58.8% success rate, also. An interesting twist on looking at the sites of the games is when both games are being played at home with the added condition of our team’s next game being on the road. When that happens, playing against our team in the second game is a 65.9% winner with now the Over being the total to bet on, a 56.8% occurrence.

We have talked about teams that rally from a halftime shortage of ten or more points to win a game. How about the team that blew that lead and lost, how do they do in their next game?

Since the start of the 2003 season, teams off of a blown lead and loss are covering the point spread in 54.7% of their next games. Teams that are playing on the road after their previous game was also on the road win 58.1% of those second games against the point spread. The best advantage came in betting the Under in these games, a 62.7% winning situation.

In this post-blown lead and loss circumstance, dogs and pick’ems were the side to bet on winning 57.0% of the time versus just 51.4% for favorites. In looking at conference and division combinations, there were a couple of situations that improved our base trend significantly. If the second game was against a divisional rival, our team covers the spread 61.5% of the time along with a 60% Under bias. If the previous game where our squad let the lead and game slip away was against a divisional foe and we are now an underdog in our next game, our ATS success rate improves to 64% and our Under bias raises to 72%. Our Under rate improves further to 77.3% if we are now playing a conference foe in the second game.

I increased the halftime deficit to 15 or more points for our team that rallied to win to see if there would be a betting advantage we could use. The only thing that really stuck out was the Over in our base trend occurred 56.9% compared to a 47.9% frequency when the deficit at half was only 10 points or more. Teams must be less focused and play with a little less intensity on the defensive side when they have even a bigger come from behind win.

I asked the question earlier in the article what was the biggest lead a team blew in a game that they lost straight up over the past five years. The answer is 29 points, which Minnesota blew on 12/30/08 on the road at Dallas. The Timberwolves were up by 22 at half and increased their lead to 70-41 early in the third before the Mavs reeled off a 22-2 run to get back in the match.
It’s time to start paying attention to halftime scores so you can take advantage of the profitable situations that happen when a team rallies to win in their previous game and also those games after a team blows their halftime lead and loses.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority penned this piece.

Thursday's Action and need your help

Got back on the correct side of the ledger, with a 2-1 day and now looking to build a little momentum. Maybe the perfect Trend can lead us down the path of consistent winning and we have another in Pac-10 play. Today’s best system is an 81.5 winner and let’s see if this can come up a winner also. Good Luck.

Our Free Plays have stunk recently, give me your free play in the ‘comment section’ and let’s see if you can help bailout our poor performance in this category tonight. (Thanks to those who have commented thus far, appreciated, hope you win)

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs of 10 or more points like Santa Clara, off a close loss by three points or less to a conference rival, against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points. This beauty of system is 22-5 ATS, 81.5 percent over the last half decade.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Washington Huskies are 9-0 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal has continued to do very well in college buckets and plays UAB with the points and on the money line. (With the points will be our play here)

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World Golf Championship Betting Blog –Thursday

If you just flipped on the Golf Channel for a few minutes or a few hours, it was nice to something in the world not crumbling around us, as Tiger Woods is back. He made spectacular shots, knocked in a few long putts and used a few choice words as he is wont to do when he doesn’t hit the shots he wanted. One of the more interesting aspects of Tiger’s match with Brendan Jones was Jones demeanor. After losing 3 and 2, he was much more euphoric about playing with the living legend than actually trying to defeat him.

I got beat up pretty good with 1-5 record, and was particularly surprised Rory Sabbatini lost, since I had him playing Tiger down the line. I thought Retief Goosen would defeat Tim Clark, who is a very solid player and though there is no way ever to know, you have to wonder if Goosen wanted to avoid El Tigre, since he was the one who questioned if Mr. Woods was really hurt at the U.S. Open and might have been playing martyr to the crowd. Clark will instead get the assignment of facing Tiger as the day’s biggest underdog at Bookmaker.com at +230.

The biggest upsets of the day went completely unnoticed, as top seeded Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington both lost in first round matches 1up. Second seeded-Phil Mickelson had to go 19 holes to hold off Angel Cabrera. Camilo (Spiderman) Villegas gave the most dominate performance, winning 7 and 6.

I have my eye on six more plays today. Pat Perez who earlier won the Bob Hope Classic, came in as 16th seed and took down Harrington. I’m going with the oddsmakers who actually have him as -120 favorite today.

Hunter Mahan is a big strong guy and I like his game to take out Rory Mcllory as -105 underdog.

Though I picked against Steve Stricker yesterday, he convinced me he hot, nearly winning the L.A. Open last week and had five birdies and an eagle yesterday. Ernie Els doesn’t much care for these events anyways; I’ll take Stricker at -110.

Lee Westwood and Luke Donald are veteran match play competitors and both should advance as favorites. Though Ian Poulter is anything but a household name unless you are a big golf fan, he is way more well-known then 16th seed Charl Schwartzel. Poulter has six birdies in 15 holes yesterday, thus I’ll lay the -160 on him.

See you tomorrow.

Memphis and Pac-10 in Focus for Bettor's Tonight

The thought of Arizona State and Washington playing for first place in the Pac-10 with less than two weeks to go in the regular season is as preposterous as Rush Limbaugh liking something the Democrats do. While that will never happen, the Sun Devils and Huskies have a key contest in Seattle that will weigh heavily on the outcome of Pac-10 title. Memphis’ string of C-USA wins only seems like the Harlem Globetrotters winning streak, and they hope not to have water thrown on them by Alabama-Birmingham, who will be trying to end the streak.

Memphis at UAB

Over the last several seasons, Memphis basketball has been known for ultra-talented athletes that can run and score points in bunches. This year’s team may lack the primordial skills of coach John Calipari’s previous teams, yet this squad is proving to be every bit a challenge to beat as his other clubs. The Tigers (24-3, 16-9-1 ATS) are holding opponents to under 38 percent shooting and have held nine different teams to 52 or fewer points this season, in spite of uptempo style. Memphis is 20-10 ATS after nine or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons (7-2 this year). The Tigers stupefying 54-game C-USA winning streak could again be tested at a place where they almost succumbed last year.

UAB (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) is a dangerous team; they don’t make many mistakes and have known quantities that make winning plays. Robert Vaden has an all-round game, Paul Delaney III is among the conference leaders in shooting percentage from the guard spot and Lawrence Kinnard has been in the top three in C-USA all season in rebounding. The Blazers are 12-0 at home (6-5 ATS) and will want to finish what they started last year, blowing a late lead to lose to Memphis 79-78.

Bookmaker.com has Memphis as 4.5-point favorites and they are 7-1 ATS versus teams with winning records. UAB has lost six straight (1-4-1 ATS) to Memphis, however the home team 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings.

ESPN will have this C-USA conflict at 9 Eastern.

Arizona State at Washington

If the Sun Devils are in an important contest late in the season, most fans and alumni would assume it is baseball game. But coach Herb Sendik grew tired of being unappreciated in the ACC by his former employer and instead has taken over a sleepy basketball program that couldn’t draw many more than 200 students to come watch a game unless their rival Arizona was on the other bench. That has all changed with Arizona State (21-5, 14-8 ATS) nationally ranked and bidding for a Pac-10 title.

Since joining the conference 30 years ago, the Sun Devils have seldom contended for league honors, let alone win a Pac-10 basketball title. Yet seldom have they had a player of sophomore James Harden’s ability. The team is a classic Sendik assembly job, not appearing to work cohesively until they hit the floor. ASU is 7-2-1 ATS facing teams with winning home records.

Washington (20-7, 16-8-1 ATS) is just as unlikely to be in first place this late in the season with a chance to be outright Pac-10 champs. The Huskies were co-champs a couple of times in the mid-1980’s, otherwise the only basketball regular season championship was during the Eisenhower administration (1953), when the league was known as the Pacific Coast Conference.

Senior leadership or experienced upperclassmen is often why ordinary teams exceed expectations and Washington has a pair of hard to beat in bruising Jon Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon. These two warriors have been through it all in Seattle and are relishing their senior seasons with the help of a youngster, freshman Isaiah Thomas who added the extra dimension. The Huskies are 14-1 and 9-4 at home and will have raucous crowd at the venerable B.O.A. Arena, the old Hec Edmonson Pavilion.

Washington is 11-4 in the Pac-10 and is two-point favorite over Arizona State, who is 10-4 in conference and 6-2 SU and ATS in true road games. The Huskies won the earlier meeting in Tempe 84-71 as six point road dogs.

FSN has the tip at 8 Pacific, with the road team 6-1 against the spread.

Trying to get over the hump on Hump Day

Got hammered yesterday as Orlando has stopped playing defense, New Mexico missed covering by a point and San Diego State didn’t utilize home court to their advantage. We’ll try and change our luck with a prefect Trend that is 11-0 since 1997 for a Missouri Valley team. Also, from the way back machine, found a system that is 78.2 percent (non-qualifying) from the year when Suddenly Susan was the No.3 rated TV show. (1996) Good Luck.

Had a good laugh about the Northern Trust bank using millions of dollars to host and throw parties in Los Angeles area for L.A. Open despite receiving bailout money from the government that is essentially yours and mine. Granted, they had already committed to hosting golf tournament, but just maybe pull back on all the festivities, I think people would understand. What was really humorous was they said no money was used from the bailout cash they received. Maybe somebody should look and see how much cash there is in reserve for entertainment division.

Free Basketball System-1) Play Against underdogs like Portland, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60 to 75 percentage). Dating all the way back to 1996, this system is 36-10 ATS. (Thanks, StatFox)

Free Basketball Trend -2) Evansville is 11-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more three straight games since 1997.

Free Basketball Selection -3) This is hard to believe, but 10 bettors from the LCC are on Marquette and not one on UConn.

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Making Sense of Numbers in Revenge Games

With less then two weeks remaining in the regular reason for college basketball, nearly every game has a revenge twist to it. Some of the bigger conferences will not have every game playing into pay back contests, with the unruly nature of trying to play most every team once, with leagues of more than 12 universities. In fact, the Mid-American Conference to date has not had a single return match this season.

In looking for an edge in gambling on college basketball, trying to comprehend what certain numbers mean from the oddsmakers is important. For example, if two teams in the same conference are evenly matched, the standard deviation should have the home team favored by four to five points, depending on the league and what a typical home court advantage would be. This would mean any normal return game should have a swing of eight to 10 points. When this doesn’t occur, what does this mean?

If a team was favored by 10 points playing at home and is now favored by eight on the road (instead of about two), how should this information be interpreted? Was the favorite undervalued to start with or has the other team gotten worse and needs more points from those setting the line to make a more even contest from wagering point of view?

For this and other answers, went thru every conference that keeps track of point spreads and limited all revenge situations to in-conference only. (Random tournaments and scheduled games did pop up) Stayed with the standard deviation of 8-10 points, also added revenge games where the spread was 7.5 or less or 10.5 or greater.

The specific question was -how do teams perform in following meeting after having beaten their opponent, be it home or away, against the spread? Ended up studying the results of 21 conferences and this is what was found thru Feb. 23.

Starting with the normal turnaround numbers of 8-10 points, the first time winner was not very successful in posting 91-104 ATS record, good for 46.6 percent mark. This is not entirely surprising given the fact the numbers fell within conventional parameters. If the two schools are somewhat comparable, then it would stand to reason the more motivated previous loser would play better. Certain conference contributed more to the losing than others as you can see.

Big 12 1-6 ATS
Horizon 3-7 ATS
Ivy 1-5 ATS
Sun Belt 4-8 ATS
WAC 2-5 ATS
West Coast 1-4-1 ATS

Each of the other two categories essentially generated the same meanings, depending on how you interpret the numbers; however the volume of games was dramatically different.

The spread differential of 7.5 or less points yielded 189 games almost as many as what was perceived as average point spread differences. (195) In this case, the results again favored the team in revenge, even to a greater degree. The revenge-minded club was 104-85 ATS, 55 percent. Why this number could be higher, is the results of the initial contest might not have accurately reflected the strengths or weakness of the two teams and enough has changed since prior encounter to limit the amount of movement in the spread.

Here we find sharp figures pointing pronounced results in particular conferences, with teams looking a for season split very profitable.

Big Ten 7-3 ATS
Big West 8-1 ATS
Colonial 6-1 ATS

Nevertheless, the numbers are balanced out is some method and other leagues saw the previous winning team covering the spread in next contest.

Ohio Valley 11-7-1 ATS
Pac-10 8-5 ATS
WAC 2-0 ATS

Spread differentials that were greater than 10 points were less than half, with a total of 89 recognized plays. The results were remarkably similar to the other groups, with the revenger 48-41 ATS, 54 percent.

In this part of the study, two conferences stood out for different reasons. In the Colonial, the winning team looking for a cover was 0-4 ATS, while the same squad in the Pac-10 was an even better going the other way at 6-0 ATS.

For the rest of the regular season, look to certain conferences which have had a proclivity to revenge situations. Here are the best and worst records against the linemaker for teams trying to sweep league rivals and cover the number.

Colonial 9-22 ATS
Horizon 13-20 ATS
Ivy 3-8-1 ATS
MAAC 13-21-1 ATS
WAC 9-14 ATS
West Coast 6-12-1 ATS

Pac-10 19-7-1 ATS
Big Sky 16-10 ATS

Keep these numbers handy over the next several days and remember, revenge is best served with a purpose.

World Golf Championship Betting Info

If their was ever a golf event made for sports bettors to wager on, it is the WGC match play event in Marana, Ariz, about 30 minutes north of Tucson at the Ritz-Carlton GC at Dove Mountain. This brings the best 64 players together according to the world rankings and puts them in a format similar to the NCAA basketball tournament, with four brackets and every player seeded. What is different about this event is the match play format, head to head. As opposed college basketball, the number one seeds have lost in the first round. The difference between the best player in the world and No. 64 is not as great as the average person may think.

The lowest rated player might get the putter going and birdie a number of holes, putting pressure on the favorite. Or the underdog could just plod along making pars and hit a stretch and win three holes in a row, essentially winning the match. Among the intriguing aspects of betting this five day tournament, there is no M.O. of a particular type of player that separates them. Tiger Woods has the best mental makeup to win six matches, but he’s also the most talented player in the world.

Match play brings out different aspects of golfers personalities compared to stroke play and certain events can really change the course of a match. The legendary Bobby Jones lamented facing a player scraping by. "When a man misses his drive, and misses his second shot and wins the hole with a birdie, it gets my goat," Jones said.

Tiger Woods return couldn’t be any more welcome to the PGA Tour, as nobody really took over the tour in Tiger’s absence. His return means better attendance at the events he plays and increased television viewership. Woods is a +475 favorite at Bookmaker.com to win, which he has to be in theory because of who he is. However, to ask anyone who has not played a competitive round of golf since June of last year, play 90 holes of golf (give or take depending on how the matches go) just to get to the 36-hole final, well even that seems like a challenge for Mr. Woods.

Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson are +1500, followed by Sergio Garcia at +1600 and Anthony Kim at +2000. My personal choice is Geoff Ogilvy at +2000, who won this event in 2006 and lost to Tiger last year. Even this selection comes with trepidation, since this is the first year they are playing at the new 7,849-yard Jack Nicklaus-designed layout, after playing across the street at the Gallery. The layout has four par fives, wide fairways and rambunctious greens with more undulation and turns than the local rattlesnakes.

Here are my first round wagers for Wednesday.

Retief Goosen -120 over Tim Clark

Rory Sabbatini -150 over Miguel Angel Jimenez

Soren Hanson +130 over Ernie Els

Dustin Johnson +110 over Steve Stricker

Mathew Googin +140 over Kenny Perry

Stuart Appleby -105 over Martin Kaymer

Turnaround Tuesday at 3Daily Winners

Marty of the LCC is having a solid season betting college hoops and offers his top play after an official 1-1 day here. Today’s system is a recent repeat and is 30-7 against the spread. New Mexico has long been a great home favorite and they are in one of their best spots tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like Orlando where the line is +3 to -3, scoring 102 or more points a game against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more. This system was just used Sunday and actually lost as I warned it might, however the situation and the teams are completely different, lending credibility. This system is 30-7 ATS, 81.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New Mexico Lobos are 13-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points the last two years.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty of the Left Coast Connection had Kansas and Louisville last night, giving him a record of 119-92, 56.3 percent in college basketball and his Best Bet is on San Diego State.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Jockeying for Position in College Hoops

The final week to two weeks before conferences start playing their tournaments can be full of land mines. A situation to watch for are teams that have just achieved a meaningful goal or hit a milestone. Those teams can be a great “go against” in their next game as many times it is a letdown situation. A team winning its 20th game or clinching a conference title should be noted. Drake last year exceeded their goals in winning the Missouri Valley Conference title. Their next game was at home against Bradley as a 6.5-point favorite. They lost outright.

You should know if a team is locked into a certain seed or within a range of their conference standings and have really nothing to gain in their final few conference games prior to their tournament. Be careful with those squads as the coach might want to rest key players or be more concerned in preparation for the tournament than for individual games.

What teams took a tumble this past week or at least lost some of their shine? Let’s start with Davidson. Their foe, Butler, became the only real victor who gained anything in Bracket Busters weekend. The Bulldogs had just lost two games back to back in the Horizon League, one of them at home, and were looking vulnerable. Butler, a very young team, but one who plays tremendous defense with intensity handled the more experienced Davidson squad rather easily.

Stephen Curry did play for Davidson but stated he was not 100%. Davidson’s chance of securing an at-large bid was already in jeopardy as they had lost at home to The Citadel by 16 points within the week. Curry missed that game but a Tourney team should never lose to The Citadel at home, especially by double-digits.

A case could be made that St. Mary’s also got a huge up-tick in their stock beating Utah State, and covering the point spread I should add. However, with an RPI of 53 and playing in the 15th ranked West Coast Conference, it is the NIT unless they beat the #1 WCC Tournament seed, Gonzaga, in the conference tournament. If that happens, the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork saying the Zags loss was orchestrated by the conference to get the extra money they earn by having an additional team in the big dance.

Going into the weekend there was talk the Mountain West could get four teams into the NCAA’s: BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. UNLV beat BYU over the weekend but San Diego State got mauled by New Mexico on the road losing by 26 points. The Aztecs have a slightly higher RPI than the Rebels, 47th to 50th, and did beat UNLV in OT in Vegas. UNLV also suffered from losing three road games to second tier Mountain West schools. Two big games on the road for UNLV are Utah on 2/25 and San Diego State on 3/7.

The Ohio Valley Conference only accepts the top eight of its ten schools into their tournament. This coming Saturday there is a true elimination game as the two teams tied for 8th in the conference with 5-12 records meet each other in their final regular season game. Tennessee Tech travels to Jacksonville State with the winner grabbing the #8 seed for the tourney and the loser calling it a season. Tennessee Tech did lose at home to Jacksonville St. earlier this year, 82-66.

The Pac-10 is a conference that has byes going to the top 6 teams in round 1 of their tourney. The bottom four schools have to play an extra game and thus will have to be victorious in four straight games without any rest to win their tournament, an almost impossible accomplishment. The two teams with the best chance of getting the #6 seed are USC and Oregon State, which incidentally meet on their last P-10 game.

UCLA is showing some deficiencies. They dropped their Saturday home game to Washington St. and have now lost three of their past four. Believe it or not, the Bruin defense has been performing terribly allowing a defensive efficiency rating of over 116 in those past four games. Their RPI has slipped to #36 and have a game at Cal Saturday, #32, which will help determine conference tourney seeding.

In the Big 12, the first four teams get a bye. Right now, there are four squads fighting for that #4 seed: Texas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Nebraska. It is always important to be aware of any added motivation a team might have in a game.

The bottom two teams don’t go to the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These should be George Washington and Fordham. Even though it appears Fordham long ago gave up on the season, 4-18 ATS, their last game of the season is at home against St. Joseph’s and it could be a spot to consider the Rams.

St. Joseph had high aspirations going into the season, some people picked them to win the A-10. They looked good winning nine of ten games after the beginning of the year but have stumbled losing four in a row. The Hawks play cross-town rival Temple the Thursday before their final scheduled game against Fordham on Saturday, 3/7. The St. Joe bench is the next to shortest in the D-1 with only 14.96% of all minutes not coming from their starters. With this being Fordham’s final game of the year and St. Joseph possibly resting players who are exhausted from a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the point spread.

The Big Ten grants first-round byes to the top five finishers. The middle of the pack, Penn St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Michigan, are fighting for seeds 4 and 5. All five of these are also on or very close to the bubble.

Assuming Memphis wins the Conference USA Tournament, they will probably be the only league representative in the NCAA Tournament. However, if #39 RPI UAB beats Memphis at home this Thursday and runs the table, they would probably make it the final cut. The Blazers looked impressive humiliating Southern Miss by 30 points Saturday.

Teams like to feel as if they have “locked in” an invitation to the big dance before going to their conference post-season play. They don’t want to be in a position where they possibly have to win the tournament, or at minimum are required to have a very good showing, to make it to the NCAA Tourney.

Kentucky is sitting on the fence with a convincing win over Tennessee this past Saturday that they sorely needed. Their final four regular season games will make or break them as they still face South Carolina, LSU, and Florida. Only LSU of those teams is probably a lock for the NCAA so they should be hotly contested battles. Inconsistency, a #61 RPI, and an opening game loss to the Big South’s VMI are hurting the Wildcats.

Like other 12-team leagues, the ACC’s top four teams get a bye while the other 8 play. Wake Forest is fighting to overtake the current #4 team, Florida State. One team you can count out for an at-large berth is Virginia Tech. Not only have the Hokies lost 5 of their last 7, but their remaining four games are with Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

A couple of RPI oddities are out there. Siena could be this year’s version of the 2006 Missouri State program that finished with a #21 RPI but didn’t get an at-large bid. The Saints played a tough schedule and are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100. However, they have two losses to 101-200 schools.

If anybody has the time, could you please explain to me how Utah has managed to be the #11 RPI rated team? They lost to Southwest Baptist, a non-Division 1 team, and the #186 team, Idaho State. They are 0-1 versus 1-25 teams and 4-4 against 51-100 squads.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote article.

Question and Your Comment

What basketball teams in college or pro have you been dialed in on or what teams cause you to lose sleep at night, were you just never win?

Looking to Start a Winning Streak

Not being able to get any winners out of free plays, which are costing us winning days. I’m not surprised at all the system lost yesterday (which I warned about), however I would be today. This will not be official system play since it is below 80 percent. Have another Top Trend that is perfect and looks at tonight’s Big 12 battle. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like the Clippers, after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game. This situational system is 30-8 ATS, 78.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 10-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Paul Buck is 6-1 in last seven NBA plays and is on Philadelphia to end two game losing streak to New Jersey.

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Cashing in on the Louisville Money-Making Express

Coach Rick Pitino is a truly unique individual, he gets life. Not just in the basketball sense, but on broader subjects. Of course he wrote the obligatory basketball book - Full-court Pressure: A Year in Kentucky Basketball, when he was at Lexington, on his way to winning national championship. However, his scope is much larger, with books like – Success is a Choice and Lead to Success, telling stories how to overachieve and be a great leader in business and in life. Though no known new book is forthcoming, the title would be easy to identify for astute followers of Pitino at Louisville - Finding Success Betting the Big East.

In what arguably has been the toughest conference in college basketball over the last three years, Coach Pitino’s team’s are 38-10 the last three years in the regular season in the conference and an astonishing 36-11-1 against the spread. That is +23.9 units of profit playing some of the fiercest competition any team can face.

The Cardinals (21-5, 16-10 ATS) are one of four teams with a pair of losses in the Big East, still with hopes of trying to win the league regular season title. Louisville has won and covered three in a row since running into the Notre Dame buzz saw on the road. Louisville responded with home wins over DePaul and Providence by a combined 63 points and overcame a good Cincinnati team on there home court 72-63, as 5.5-point favorites, which even impressed the coach.

“I think our passing has gotten better,” Pitino said. “We made some excellent passes. We executed great against their full-court pressure. We just played a terrific game.”

Louisville will play a second straight conference road game at ghastly Georgetown (14-11, 7-13-1 ATS). The Cardinals make every sports bettor giddy, with their 22-4 ATS road record since 2007. Part of the Cards success has come in the second month of the year, where they are 17-4 against the oddsmakers number. With Pitino’s books being about learning to build success the right way, his teams the last three years are 15-4 ATS off a road win.

Coach John Thompson III might have gone to Amazon.com and picked up enough copies of Pitino’s books and handed them out to his players once the new year arrived. Georgetown was supposed to be run of the mill in conference, but after knocking then No.1 Connecticut at there place to raise record to 10-1, hopes of Hoyas uprising were taking place. Similar to the euphoria of President Barack Obama taking up residence in nearly Washington, D.C., reality set in and problems arose.

If any team has a weaknesses, conference opponents will be the ones to expose them and Georgetown ended up with a Pandora’s boxful. The Hoyas have lost eight of 10 (1-8-1 ATS) and are 4-10 and 2-11-1 ATS since hitting 2009. When asked if he thought this was a difficult season, Thompson offered these thoughts.

“Period. Not just at Georgetown,” Thompson said. “But we’ll get through this. Yeah, it’s trying. But we’re going to do what we do. We’re going to try to get better from the top on down.” The Hoyas are 5-9 and 3-11 ATS in the Big East.

Despite the problems, oddsmakers haven’t written off Georgetown, as they opened as a one-point underdog with a total of 130 at many sportsbooks. When checking different angles, it’s not easy to support G-Town, since they are 0-8 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3. The Cardinals would look to be in a more favorable position with 13-2 ATS mark as road favorite or pick and 8-1 ATS if the number is six or less.

Angles, trends and book sales don’t win games, players and coaches do. ESPN will have the next story unfold for both teams at 7 Eastern on Big Monday, with likely many bettors waiting for Pitino’s club to add another winning chapter.

Three Weeks until Selection Sunday

It was a tough way to lose, getting back-doored, as Siena led by 12 or points for 33 minutes against Northern Iowa, only to have the number fall below in the last minute and fail to cover for 1-2 day. We have a Free Play in the Big East going today. Michigan State is in a perfect situation in Big Ten action after being blown out. Hardly any good systems in play for Sunday and I would be cautious with this one also, because of the uncertainty of the rosters and the huge line move made by those wagering. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like Phoenix where the line is +3 to -3, scoring 102 or more points a game, against a good offensive team averaging 98-102 PPG (like Boston), after a win by 10 points or more. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Michigan State is 8-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One member of the LCC who focuses primarily on short numbers in basketball (four or less) is playing Syracuse today.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.