With the field of 65 teams set, the real fun begins, who are the locks to win and advance and where will the upsets come from. In many cases, filling out a bracket is challenging enough, however trying to beat the oddsmakers over the first four days of the NCAA Tournament might be the reason Rogaine was invented, as fans see double digit leads dissipate faster than our dollars being handed out for bailouts.
Here is a look at each region and who could be in the Sweet 16.
Midwest Region
Louisville (28-5) is the top seeded of the entire tournament, winning the Big East regular season and postseason tournament. The Cardinals have won 10 games in a row and have to draw a great deal of attention. Louisville plays tremendous pressing defense, has at least three NBA potential players and is 12-3 and 9-4 ATS away from home. They will easily dispatch of first round opponent Alabama State or Morehead State, who are in the play-in game and face the winner of Ohio State and Siena. The Buckeyes (22-10) are playing much better than they were in mid-February, as Evan Turner has turned into one of the best players in the Big Ten. The Saints (26-7) by no means are simple club to beat, scoring 77.7 points per game, with four starters averaging double digits. The respect they have earned shows up in advancing four spots to No.9 seed from last year when they upset Vanderbilt and are a three-point underdog at Bookmaker.com.
Arizona (19-13) getting into the tournament is a mystery, losing five of last six and having 2-9 (5-6 ATS) true road record. Nevertheless, they have three quality players in Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill and Nic Wise, who could give Mountain West champion Utah (24-9) fits. The Utes don’t overwhelm opponents, winning by 7.2 points per game, but they know how to win and were 19-13 against the spread and should take down the Wildcats as a one point underdog. If that happens, a young a talented Wake Forest (24-6) team should be waiting. The Demon Deacons next year should really be something, but they are not too shabby this season with guard Jeff Teague as leader. If Cleveland State (25-10) can play at their tempo, they should be able to give Wake Forest quite a game, on the receiving end of eight points.
Michigan State (26-6) handily won the Big Ten regular season, but failed for the ninth straight year to make tourney final. The concern about the Spartans is what happens when Chris Allen and Durrell Summers don’t play well. Both are potential 20-point scorers any given night, unfortunately have had their share of four and five point games. Tom Izzo’s club should handle Robert Morris (24-10) as 17-point favorites, who finished 9-2 after losing at Pittsburgh by 20 points. The Boston College (21-11) and USC (21-12) matchup is almost impossible to predict with how the teams play from game to game, however the Trojans get the nod from oddsmakers as two-point favorites.
If Kansas (25-7) puts the loss of Baylor in Big 12 tournament behind them quickly, they should be fine. If they let it linger and play like coach Bill Self teams had played prior to last year, the Jayhawks could have real tussle with North Dakota State (26-6) as 10-point favorites. Five years ago coach Saul Phillips made the decision to redshirt the entire talented freshmen class, with the hopes of entering Division 1 basketball and earning NCAA bid in first year. It worked and you know they will be excited to face the defending champions.
Dayton (26-7) comes in limping to the tournament with 3-4 record, really missing point guard Chris Lowery, who is out for the season. Two other players have seen limited action reducing the effective edge the Flyers had with 12-man roster. West Virginia (23-11) seldom losses to teams it should beat and Dayton is one of them.
Midwest Region Sweet 16 TeamsLouisville – Utah – Michigan State – Kansas
West Region
Connecticut (27-4) coach Jim Calhoun could hardly be more pleased, since he has won two national championships coming out of the West Region. The top seeded Huskies have deep and talented frontcourt that can dominate and you have to like the fact they were 13-2 and 9-6 ATS away from Storrs and are a rock solid 21-point favorite. They drew Tenn-Chattanooga (18-16), who won the Southern Conference, by avoiding Davidson and playing a tired College of Charleston on there own home court. The 8 vs. 9 matchups are always intriguing and BYU against Texas A&M fits the mold. The Cougars (25-7) have outstanding players like guards Lee Cummard and Jimmer Fredette, leading a team that was 9-3 and 10-2 ATS on the road. Texas A&M (23-9) had the unimaginable loss to Texas Tech, blowing 19-point half time lead, but had won six in a row prior to that and is a two-point dog.
Purdue (25-9) finally met expectations, winning the Big Ten tourney, as Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore turned it on. Because of how the Boilermakers can play defense, they should be able to control Missouri Valley champion Northern Iowa (23-10). The Panthers had a three-game losing streak in the middle of February, including a loss to Siena in Bracket Buster contest, but bounced back to win last five contests. They would love to get into a real grinder with Purdue, with the score in the low 60’s, catching eight points. Washington (25-8) was awarded the fourth seed and easily has the toughest foe among their peers. The Huskies are the most physical team in the Pac-10, but they will face a Mississippi State (23-12) who made improbable run to win SEC with four wins in four days and has won and covered the spread six straight times. The Bulldogs shoot the three-ball well and have shot-blocker extraordinaire Jarvis Varnardo, to swat away attempts in the lane. You always have to beware of teams playing that many games in that many days and Mississippi State also drew the earlier Thursday game, having to travel all the way to Portland, Or.
Coach John Calipari of Memphis (31-3) will tell the media that he could care less about what seed they are, however you can bet tomorrow’s lunch money he’s selling the lack of respect card to his players. This is a deep and veteran club with loads of NBA ability, who will shake Cal-State Northridge (17-13) and storm to Sweet 16. California (22-10) and Maryland (20-13) both do things well, nonetheless, the Bears have lost four of last six and have just one cover and seem soft by comparison trying to slow down guard Greivis Vasquez who can take over a game for the Terrapins. Cal is favored by a single point at the moment.
Missouri (28-6) will look to turn the heat up defensively on Cornell (21-9), who won the Ivy League as pretty good squad, but was 0-3 against the three tournament teams they faced and is a 13.5-point underdog. It is sad we won’t get to see Marquette (24-9) at full strength without Dominic James, and they better make sure they don’t get into slow down affair with Utah State (30-4), who is 13-4 and 10-5 ATS on the road. The wagering public hit the Aggies hard, taking them from seven-point underdog to 4.5 by morning.
West Region Sweet 16 TeamsConnecticut – Purdue – Memphis – MissouriEast RegionMore than one expert likes the Pittsburgh Panthers (28-4) in the national championship game on April 6 and their coach Jamie Dixon, though not happy about Big East tournament effort, is pleased about the extra rest to have everybody healthy and ready to end recent tournament disappointments. For Pitt to advance beyond the Sweet 16, they must avoid what has curtailed them in their losses or struggles, which is two early fouls on DeJuan Blair in the first half. Blair’s brawn and skill opens up the playbook for forward Sam Young and others. After dispatching of East Tennessee State (23-10) as 20-point pick, Pittsburgh can look ahead to up and down conflict with either Oklahoma State (22-11) or Tennessee. The Cowboys have no size, but shoot the ball effectively and their only two defeats in last 10 tries have been to Missouri and in-state rival Oklahoma, who they later clipped in Big 12 tourney. The Volunteers (21-12) played like the more tired team in SEC title game and remain a mystery even today and are favored by two points.
Florida State (25-9) has a star in guard Toney Douglas who averaged 25 points per game in ACC tournament. The Seminoles have NBA size and should be too skilled for Wisconsin (19-12), as they are making first March Madness appearance in 11 years. You have to wonder if Xavier (25-7) peaked, as they are only 6-5 since February with more than one indifferent performance. Portland State (23-9) was the Big Sky champ and is not a super squad, but if taken too lightly, could surprise behind Jeremiah Dominguez, who was the Big Sky tournament MVP This is the Vikings second straight trip to tourney and could be dangerous dog on the receiving end of 11-points.
Duke (28-6) grabbed the second seed as presumed and is in much better shape this time around heading into NCAA event than a year ago. They are more mature, fresher and have more scoring options. Defensively, they are solid, but somewhat vulnerable to dribble penetration, which shouldn’t be a problem for the first couple of rounds. Binghamton (23-8) is making first ever showing in the tournament and graduate Tony Kornheiser can wear the jersey proudly for a few more days as 22-point pooch. Texas (22-11) just never clicked this season, lacking point guard play to start and later consistent outside shooting. The Longhorns should have enough as 3.5-point faves to hold off Minnesota (22-10), who was 5-8 ATS away from the Land of 10,000 lakes.
UCLA (25-8) better come East ready to play, otherwise they will be one and done against a Virginia Commonwealth (24-9) club that has star player in Eric Maynor. The Rams were the regular season and conference tournament champs and can play defense, holding foes to 39.7 percent shooting. VCU caught the attention of bettors immediately, going from 10-point underdog to seven. Villanova (26-7) has seven strong players that regularly make considerable contributions. Scottie Reynolds has to play well, as the Wildcats are 11-0 when he scores 18 or more points. American (24-7) was supposed to win the Patriot Conference and did behind senior guards Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer, but don’t matchup well as 17-point underdogs.
East Region Sweet 16 teams
Pittsburgh – Florida State – Duke – Villanova
South Region
If Ty Lawson is back to 100 percent, no reason why North Carolina should not be headed to the Motor City for the Final Four. In the past, when Lawson wasn’t healthy or playing up to usual standards, the Tar Heels (28-4) went from great to very good team. When he is out of the lineup, the other North Carolina players besides Tyler Hansbrough are out of rhythm and miss more shots than they normally would. Radford (21-11) will be a good warmup, though they have averaged 89.1 points per game in last six as Big South champs. If ever there was a contrast in styles, it is LSU and Butler tilt. The Tigers (26-7) were the class of the SEC by a wide margin; however after beating Kentucky in Lexington, they seemed to have let up and haven’t shot over 40 percent in losing three of last four contests. Butler (26-5) is deliberate and plays more cerebral and though they can’t match LSU ability-wise, they play solid defense and could frustrate Tigers as two-point (Bull)dogs.
Illinois (24-9) might be in the classic 5 vs 12 matchup, since they have shown since January, they can miss a large volume of shots in a row and take ugly losses. Western Kentucky (24-8) has peaked at the right time, winning 11 of last 12 (9-3 ATS), as senior Orlando Mendez-Valdez and junior A.J. Slaughter have stepped into the backcourt and played at a high level. This was on many people radar immediately, as the Hilltoppers went from 6.5-point dog to four.
If you prefer strong fundamentals in picking winners, Gonzaga (26-5) would be a wise selection. The Bulldogs have won 18 of 19 (only loss to Memphis) and are second in the nation in field goal defense at 36.8 percent. Coach Mark Few today has the team that many believed he would and they should move past Akron (23-12), since MAC teams have shown very little in recent years in this tournament.
If likely player of the year Blake Griffin and his older brother Taylor want to leave Oklahoma (27-5) in a blaze of glory, now would be the time to raise level of play. The Sooners have been off, with 2-4 and 1-5 ATS mark in last six. You wouldn’t believe Morgan State (23-11) would present a tremendous challenge, however Oklahoma might not cover the 16.5-points if bored. Clemson (23-8) could go either way in their contest against Michigan. The Tigers have superior athletes, nevertheless, their press is beatable with patience and they allow too many layups and dunks out of it. The Wolverines (20-13) are capable of putting together explosive output, but lack the consistency to be counted on positively to do so even as receiving five points. Michigan is only 6-10 ATS when not playing at Ann Arbor.
Syracuse (26-9) showed what they are capable of and has a multitude of weapons, which is why they finished 7-1 SU and ATS. With a natural letdown expected, look for Stephen F. Austin (24-7) to be tougher than expected with 12.5-points. For Arizona State’s sake, they better forget about nightmare second half in blowing Pac-10 title, since the Sun Devils (24-9) face Temple (22-11) who is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS since Feb.8. Two future NBA players, James Harden and Dionte Christmas will be on display and Arizona State is favored by five.
South Region Sweet 16 teams
North Carolina – Gonzaga – Oklahoma - Temple
The five matchups for the Round of 32 afternoon session has a distinct flavor of brand names. Several conference champions, be it regular season or postseason tournaments, plus a few others that are playing their best basketball at just the right time. With the field having been cut in half, this is where skill matters most in assessing the chances of each team and coaching is extremely important, having just one day to completely prepare for new opponent in one and done scenario. Here is a wagering look at the contests.
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