Depending how you look at it, 3Daily Winners was 3-0 on the final tally or 2-0-1 with the Miami Heat a subjective view based on buy, either way a day I love to see. Our perfect Trend reappears and is in a Big East matchup. The LLC consensus is still rolling, thus I’ll show what these wise bettors are on in the NFL for Saturday. The Pac-10 offers the best system play for today with a 25-5 record. Good Luck.
The Early Line Moves are down to just a few. The bowls ended 7-5 on the sides and 3-4-1 on the totals. Last week the NFL side was incorrect with Indy losing, however the total was correct with Philly playing under. The totals are now 32-22-1, 59.2 percent for the entire season and have Carolina going OVER this week and Pittsburgh going UNDER.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST a favorite like Washington State who is a good defensive team allowing 64 or fewer points game on the season, after scoring 55 points or less four straight games. The record for this system is 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent over 11 years.
Free Basketball Trends -2) Cincinnati is 0-11 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection continues strong and has 54 percent on Baltimore today with four of five bettors playing the Under in that matchup. Carolina is the choice by 58 percent with 66 percent riding the Over, though most bought it 46 or 47 points.
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NFL Saturday Games Need to Know Info
Baltimore at Tennessee (-3, 34)Kerry Collins started to look like a quarterback getting up in years late in the season. Maybe the break will recharge him, but against this Baltimore defense, that might be so easy, as road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 15-5 ATS in the playoffs. The Ravens held Tennessee to just 34 yards rushing in the earlier meeting and have to like their chances if they put up similar numbers, even on the road. This should be like prize fight and if Baltimore wants to knock off the top seed in the AFC, they must knock them out. On offense that means passing when you should run and vice versa. Ray Lewis and his teammates have a lot of confidence working and are 9-2 ATS off a win.
Tennessee has the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL, thus scoring first is a priority for Jeff Fisher’s club. It is imperative to establish some semblance of running game or short passes that are like runs to keep Baltimore from dictating defensive tempo. Otherwise, they could fall into same trap Miami did, even being a ball security team. Joe Flacco was serviceable last week; the Titans defensive job is to make feel like he was at University of Pittsburgh before transferring, unwanted. The mantra has to be -Frustrate Flacco. Though they seemingly didn’t care about losing to Indianapolis to close the season, being shutout is embarrassing and Tennessee is 8-2 ATS after losing by two touchdowns or more.
Tennessee has the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL, thus scoring first is a priority for Jeff Fisher’s club. It is imperative to establish some semblance of running game or short passes that are like runs to keep Baltimore from dictating defensive tempo. Otherwise, they could fall into same trap Miami did, even being a ball security team. Joe Flacco was serviceable last week; the Titans defensive job is to make feel like he was at University of Pittsburgh before transferring, unwanted. The mantra has to be -Frustrate Flacco. Though they seemingly didn’t care about losing to Indianapolis to close the season, being shutout is embarrassing and Tennessee is 8-2 ATS after losing by two touchdowns or more.
With the total at 34, Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last two seasons, but Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in the Volunteer state.
Arizona at Carolina (-9.5, 48.5)
Arizona at Carolina (-9.5, 48.5)
Though Arizona won big playoff game, Carolina has to make them feel very unwelcome traveling into the Eastern Time zone where the Cardinals are 2-19 and 7-14 ATS over the past six years. The Panthers can’t stroll into this divisional playoff game, they need to shake Arizona up quickly and have Kurt Warner wearing that frown he has when things are not going his way. Chances are Anquan Bolden will be limited at best, put your best corner, Chris Gamble on Larry Fitzgerald and create over the top help on his side. Arizona gained respect by stopping Atlanta’s running game, test to see how they perform against rested DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Cards are 1-4 ATS after allowing 90 or less yards rushing.
The most striking aspect of Arizona’s defensive effort last week was crisp tackling, something in short supply all season long. With Carolina averaging 194.8 yards per game rushing the last seven games, the Cardinals defense has to tackle even better. On offense, running the ball has proven to work, just keep up the effort, as the Panthers are nothing special in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Keep Edgerrin James with that big smile on his face and don’t be afraid to use the tight ends like last week to move the chains. The Cards players have to listen to vets like Warner and not be overwhelmed by the moment. If they fall behind by 10 or 14 points early, realize you have enough offense to overcome deficit. Arizona is 9-4 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The most striking aspect of Arizona’s defensive effort last week was crisp tackling, something in short supply all season long. With Carolina averaging 194.8 yards per game rushing the last seven games, the Cardinals defense has to tackle even better. On offense, running the ball has proven to work, just keep up the effort, as the Panthers are nothing special in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Keep Edgerrin James with that big smile on his face and don’t be afraid to use the tight ends like last week to move the chains. The Cards players have to listen to vets like Warner and not be overwhelmed by the moment. If they fall behind by 10 or 14 points early, realize you have enough offense to overcome deficit. Arizona is 9-4 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
Teams like Arizona that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years and won their first postseason contest, are 7-15-1 ATS in next outing.
The Day After College Football Ends
Congratulations to the Florida Gators on winning the national championship. Tim Tebow has a legacy few in college football have had before him. The desire and will he has to succeed is truly remarkable. I know Bob Stoops will receive a ton of bad press and hate mail, but the fact remains, in all four games his Oklahoma team played for the national championship, it was clear, not by a large margin in each case, he had the lesser team. Much like the Buffalo Bills during their Super Bowl losing streak, a couple of plays made, could have turned the outcome in a much different manner.
Like Florida, we were a perfect on Thursday (2-0) and look to continue with an outstanding NBA system that is 82.8 percent on underdogs. We’ll hand out two Top Trends, as they relate to the same game in college hoops this evening. The LLC has been doing quite well as a consensus; we release their Best Bet tonight. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points like Indiana after allowing 100 points or more two straight games against opponent, after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. Teams like the Pacers in this situation are 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent since 1996.
Free Basketball Trends -2) San Diego is 13-2 ATS off a home win, while tonight’s opponent San Francisco is 0-9 ATS as a home underdog or pick.
Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has been exceptional of late, so let’s try them tonight in the NBA. Five members are on the Miami Heat with no detractors.
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NHL Streaks – About what you would believe
During an NHL season, there are many bumps in the road or areas that look like I-40 in Northwest Texas, where it is vast as the eye can see. Teams have to be able to maneuver away from the bad times and hope to stay on the straight and narrow when things are going just dandy.With the NHL season at nearly the halfway point of the year, thought it would time to check in on how to wager on streaking teams. We set our benchmark at four games, be it winning or losing and tried to cover all aspects: home favorite and underdog and the same roles for the road teams.
Starting with home favorites on a four game winning streak, they did as about as expected, winning 70.5 percent of the time, with 12-5 record, gathering +5.4 units of profit. Two things stood out in our discovery, the East teams were 9-1 and the West just 3-4. About the only reason for this occurring were fairly average teams like Edmonton started 4-0 before coming back to reality. The other piece of info for hockey bettors that is noteworthy, teams on four-game winning streaks that are home favorites of -150 or more are perfect 8-0.
Though the numbers are dramatically smaller and not truly usable sample, home underdogs on the same streak are 3-0, +3.5 units.
The good times continued for visiting money line hockey clubs, playing well when they hit the road with a 6-2 mark, bring home a profit of +3.16 units, as they kept the confidence level high, even in visiting arenas. The same wasn’t true for those few marked by oddsmakers as road underdogs. Here, those setting the numbers tell us emphatically they are not impressed with our four-game streaker and they have gone on to lose on all three occasions.
As we all know, losing isn’t fun and it hasn’t been a wise idea to risk money when NHL clubs are going backwards for a spell.
Home favorites after four losses, isn’t as painful as foreclosure, but it still hurts. In eight opportunities this season, they have managed only two wins, dropping 6.4 units. This points to how difficult it can be to break a downward spiral even before the home fans as the better team.
Home underdogs on the money line or road favorites succumb with regularity, posting a 1-5 record (one home win). When the losses mount, it is not easy to just to will yourself to a win, typically something has to happen and suddenly you can breakthrough with a win, this has not been the case in these two categories.
Home underdogs on the money line or road favorites succumb with regularity, posting a 1-5 record (one home win). When the losses mount, it is not easy to just to will yourself to a win, typically something has to happen and suddenly you can breakthrough with a win, this has not been the case in these two categories.
A road underdog having lost four consecutive hockey games, well it’s uglier than a 2009 calendar of celebrity mugshots. Of the 19 games these “losers’ have played in this role, they have come away on the short end of the scoreboard 15 times, causing puck bettors to lose 9.07 units.
In conclusion, when a team is hot, having won four consecutive games, ride with them unless they are a road dog. These teams are 21-7; bring home +12.06 units of profit. On the other hand, if they are losing on continual basis, follow that trend as these hockey squads are 7-26, -19.71 units.
Title Game Plays and other Potential Winners
Duke’s late second half slumber cost us a winning day and it didn’t help Evansville played terrible in non-cover win in OT. The system play was a winner and I believe we should have another with 81.2 percent ATS record in college basketball. Like nearly most bettors, the LLC is on one side of tonight’s championship game along with the total. Just think of how much money the books make if Oklahoma wins!!! Today’s Top Trend tackles the world of hockey, with a 16-1 beaut. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams where the line is +3 to -3, like Boise State off a road win by 10 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. This has been a great system the last three seasons at 13-3, 81.2 percent.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Boston Bruins are 16-1 against the money line versus teams outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals a game this season, winning by better than two goals per game.
Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection is solidly behind Florida at 82 percent, with those supporting at no more than -3.5. The members on Oklahoma have all came in today and I’ve been told some now are fishing to play both sides hoping for middle. Additionally, 81 percent support the Under.
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BCS Championship Wagering Preview
Finally! College football fans and football bettors have had to wait over a month for this day to arrive, the playing of the BCS national championship game. Along the way, we watched the Pac-10 surprise us, the Big Ten disappoint (again) and the elite of the Big 12 under whelm. We’ve listened to ESPN analysts give us mounds of information and been forced to stomach Dr. Lou and have been amazed at how little the Fox crew knows about college football. But none of that matters now, because Florida and Oklahoma are about to settle everything (we hope) on the field of play.While the merits of one team having a shot for BCS title can be discussed vehemently, nobody can realistically argue these are not the two hottest teams to end the regular season. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow promised all of us after losing at home to Mississippi 31-30, nobody would play harder (You didn’t need YouTube to view this a thousand times) and he and his teammates made good on that promise as the Gators won last nine games by 36.4 points per game.
Oklahoma also had to show resolve and even when they did, it almost wasn’t enough. The Sooners lost to Texas (as everyone dressed in burnt orange is quick to remind the world) and had to do something the rest of the season that would make stand out, while keep on winning. All they did was average a sick 59.8 points per game the rest of the season, including passing the Big 6 0 in last five games. If you really think about, if Oklahoma had won the rest of their games, but averaged say 45 points a game, they probably would have never passed Texas.
We all know defense wins championships, but the best guess here is both coaches are setting up speed bumps or road blocks, knowing full well their is little either can do other than to cause confusion to slow down the other’s offense. Florida is stellar 10-2 ATS and 7-0 ATS against teams scoring 34 or more points and Oklahoma is 8-0 ATS after scoring 50 or more points.
On the year, Florida technically had a tougher schedule, meeting 10 bowl teams, compared to eight for Oklahoma. The Gators were 9-1 and 8-2 ATS, winning by 31.4 points per games. The Sooners were 7-1 and 6-2 ATS, winning by 29 PPG.
One absolutely delicious aspect of this matchup is the differences in the conferences during the regular season. In looking strictly at play within the conferences (excluding league championship games) the contrast couldn’t be any more stark. The SEC had two teams that scored 275 or more points in conference action (Florida and Alabama), compared to the Big 12, which saw seven schools pass the same point total. The average total score of a Southeast Conference contest was just over 46 points, while the Big 12 was 68 total points on the nose.
Bookmaker.com opened this title game at Florida at -3 and 72. After the wagering public got a look at how the each conference did in the bowls, they have moved the Gators up to five points, with the total dwindling to 69.5.
At this point, it becomes a matter of “what if”. This year’s Heisman winner Sam Bradford has been stupid good since losing to Texas, with 25 touchdowns and ONE interception. Only Texas and TCU “held” Oklahoma to 35 points and each was known for being able to pressure the quarterback. If Florida creates pressure up front with a few sacks and general steady pressure, Bradford might not be as confident in the pocket. Otherwise, the Sooners are 8-1 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.
Florida is in a similar, yet different battle to win this encounter. The Gators three lowest rushing total games came against Miami-Fl., Ole Miss and Alabama, all games Florida had difficulties getting the offense going. As great as it is to see Tebow scurrying around and trying to bulldoze people over, all it really means is the running game is not working and his receivers are covered. Chances are Bob Stoops would love to see Tebow as Florida’s leading rusher in this game. The Gators need to run the ball first and are 6-0 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt and 8-0 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.
Oklahoma’s coach Stoops used to be known as “Big Game Bob”, however four BCS losses later, his reputation has been run aground and is 4-5 bowling, with only three covers. His counterpart Urban Meyer is 3-1 SU and ATS in bowls.
If we have learned anything from the BCS bowl games, it’s about starting after a long layoff. Texas, Penn State and Alabama were all late to the party, with the latter two never recovering and the Longhorns taking to the final seconds to secure victory. Conversely, a hot start propelled USC and Utah to relatively easy wins.
Since they started using bowl games to determine the national champions, only once has one conference won three in a row, which was the SEC in 1978-80, can Oklahoma prevent history from repeating?
Wednesday's Top Wagering Tips
A split in the action here yesterday, but another great call by the Left Coast Connection on Tulsa. Mark of the Left Coast Connection has been doing quite well thank you in college basketball wagering and shares his top play. Today’s Top trend might not be perfect; however it is awfully good at 17-3. We’ll go for two System Winners in a row with an NBA one that is 22-4. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Cleveland, who own a 7+ point differential against an average team like Charlotte (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. This system delivers winners 84.6 percent of the time since 2004.
Free Basketball Trend -2) Evansville is 17-3 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.
Free Basketball Selection -3) Mark from the LLC is 20-11 ATS in his last 31 college hoops plays and sees Duke taking care of business against Davidson at home.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Cleveland, who own a 7+ point differential against an average team like Charlotte (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. This system delivers winners 84.6 percent of the time since 2004.
Free Basketball Trend -2) Evansville is 17-3 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.
Free Basketball Selection -3) Mark from the LLC is 20-11 ATS in his last 31 college hoops plays and sees Duke taking care of business against Davidson at home.
Doug's Thoughts from The Angry Chair
It was extraordinarily peculiar to see four wild card road teams open up as favorites last week and all but Atlanta held, with a deluge of money coming late on Arizona which saw them close as -2 home favorites at most wagering outlets. What struck me was the Indianapolis Colts and their performance in losing to San Diego in overtime.To a large degree, Indianapolis was a fraud of a team even manufacturing a nine-game winning streak to close the regular season. They started slowing with Peyton Manning coming back from medical procedures, not having him mentally or physically ready to start the season. They had Christmas well before Dec. 25, as Minnesota and Houston gave away certain victories with fool-hardy play.
Of the 12 wins the Colts managed, they were hardly dominating, winning eight by a touchdown or less. During the broadcast of the wild card game, it was brought up Tony Dungy has taken the Colts to seven straight playoffs in his seven seasons in Indianapolis. No question that is a notable accomplishment, but has it REALLY been that successful a run? Dungy inherited a quarterback who has become a three-time MVP, which made his job a lot easier, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, he’s had potential Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Jeff Saturday and very good players like Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. I’m not suggesting Dungy is a bad coach, nonetheless has he and his teams reached their potential?
In four of his seven playoff appearances, it has been one and done for the Colts, three times as favorites, like last Saturday. If you remember, the reason he was asked to leave Tampa Bay wasn’t because he was terrible person, rather the failures losing in the very first playoff game three years in a row from 1999-2001. Maybe the Buccaneers weren’t ready to win, yet the coincidence of them winning the Super Bowl the next year after he left is striking.
Contrast that with Andy Reid, who has a like/hate relationship in Philadelphia (who doesn’t for that matter). Reid makes little effort to be likeable and has seen his share of family issues on the front page of untold newspapers. Yet, with last week’s win at Minnesota, the Eagles have won seven straight (5-2 ATS) first games in the postseason.
Dungy does have a Super Bowl winners ring and Reid doesn’t as a head coach, but purely in the football sense, especially for a sports bettors like you and me, I’d rather have Reid coaching on my nickel than Dungy, who has lost first playoff game seven of 11 times as head coach.
Spoke to a noted college basketball handicapper back in December and me mentioned the Big East as conference that could produce a number of upsets. Much like the mythical beast “Hydra”, the Big East is a multi-headed monster, with nine teams in the Top 25 this week. In Greek mythology stories of Hydra, you cut off one of the heads of the beast and another appears, which is what is likely to happen in the Big East all season. Thus far favorites are 11-2 and 8-5 ATS in conference play; however the grueling affects of this league will surely have more underdog winners in the coming weeks.
I have to admit I haven’t looked at Oklahoma City much concerning betting, since I’m not a big supporter of wagering on teams that have no chance to win. Seeing the loud rumbling noise accompanying a lighting discharge (thunder) squad has the worst scoring margin record in the NBA at -8.0 points per game, I can’t lay down the cash on OKC very often. I was mildly surprised to learn after being bowl games intensive the last few weeks (making a few NBA wagers here and there) Oklahoma City was 21-13-1 ATS, however I wasn’t stunned considering how many points they typically receive.
One team that has me befuddled is the leader in making money in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks. Having lived in the land of brats and beer for years (only place I’ve ever heard of having a regional neighborhood called “Piggsville” and not have negative connotation), I’ve always had a soft spot for Bucks. Milwaukee is mere 17-19, with heart-thumping 24-11-1 ATS record. What I find most intriguing about the Bucks spread record is nearly half (9) of their losses have been by 10 or more points. Take away those games against the spread in which they are 2-7 ATS, that means in the rest of all of the games Milwaukee has played, they are 22-4-1 against the spread which is remarkable. From the handicapping perspective, right now, if Milwaukee looks like they might get whipped, either play against them or pass, otherwise, they are definite Play On team. (This last paragraph made Fox's Ben Maller's NBA rumor page)
Mid-Season College Hoops Report Card
Students are coming back after holiday break. Holiday Tournaments are over with. And the non-conference schedules are wrapping up. Let’s take a gander at the landscape of college basketball this first week of January, 2009.There are only four (make it three) undefeated teams left with the recent defeat of the Connecticut Huskies at the hands of Pittsburgh and Boston College slaying North Carolina on the Tar Heels’ home court. Sitting with 14 wins against zero losses are the Redbirds of Illinois State (until last night) and the Clemson Tigers. Undefeated Pitt and Wake Forest both have notched 13 wins.
At the complete other end of the spectrum we have a handful of regularly-lined teams with only one win: The West Coast Conference’s Loyola Marymount, Sacramento State from the Big Sky, the Southern Conference’s UNC-Greensboro, and two teams from the Mid-American Conference, Toledo and Eastern Michigan.
The undefeated teams are covering the point spread at a 64.9% clip while the only one-game winners are cashing tickets 28.6% of the time.
Teams who are making supporters money at the betting window are 7-1 ATS Auburn, 12-2 Niagara, 9-2-1 California, Arkansas State at 9-2, and Illinois State with an 8-2 record against the number. Squads that are money burners for their backers are three from the Southern Conference, 1-8 ATS UNC-Greensboro, the 1-6 Paladins of Furman, and the Elon Phoenix checking in at 1-5 beating the point spread. Kent and Toledo, both at 2-8 ATS, aren’t making the MAC very proud.
Let’s look more in detail at a few teams and what we can expect from them.
Underachievers
Louisville started out ranked #3 in the nation. The Cardinals lost on neutral courts to Sun Belt Conference Western Kentucky and to Minnesota. UNLV went on the road last week with their top player injured and beat Louisville. The Cards are playing very good defense but their offensive efficiency is sub-par. This is more glaring when you realize they have played a schedule full of weak defensive teams, with the exclusion of UNLV and Kentucky. Shooting 66.1% from the free-throw stripe leaves a lot of points on the court. Big man Fr. Samardo Samuels has to play more above the rim and draw more fouls. Terrence Williams has slightly improved his shooting from a miserable previous season, but he is only shooting 41.1% on 2-pointers and 29.8% on 3’s. Williams takes the most shots on the team but has a very poor offensive efficiency rating of 99.8. The starter with the best OE rating, Jerry Smith, 121.7, takes the fewest shots of any of the top seven in rotation. Last year Louisville started slowly at 5-3 but came on strong to finish at 27-9. The lack of offense has helped Louisville to a 3-7 O/U mark.
Arizona can play like a top ten team or one that is a conference bottom feeder. They are 7-1 at home with the lone loss being by one-point to a quality UAB team. But, the Wildcats are 0-4 on the road with pathetic offensive showings in their last three away tilts. Turnovers have been a tremendous problem on the road, also. A lack of depth does not help but three high-quality starters in Nic Wise, Chase Budinger, and Jordan Hill all have high-NBA potential with Hill being a lottery pick. Zona is in the bottom ten in the nation in the ratio of three-point field goals attempted to two-pointers. When there isn’t much of a threat from outside, the defense can sag inside. What is odd is the Wildcats rank 14th in 3-point shooting at 40.0%. You would think more 3’s would be going up with such a success rate. This week’s home games against the Oregon schools will help unravel the Arizona mystery. Arizona is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite.
Are They for Real?LSU has a gaudy 13-1 record (until last night) which is deceptive as they have only played five lined games and have played the softest schedule in the nation out of 344 D-1 schools. Besides a couple of Sun Belt teams and a Big West squad, the Tigers have played two BCS schools. They lost in their only venture away from home, a semi-away game in Houston to Texas A&M. They beat a Washington State team by 12 points with 13 steals as they came from seven points down going on a 24-5 run to finish the game. A good test comes January 6th at Utah just five days before LSU opens conference play against division-rival Alabama. Solid play from Sr. G Garrett Temple and Fr. G Bo Spencer have led the Tigers.
Alabama is not much higher on strength of schedule holding down a #339 rank. PG Ronald Steele is back after missing last year due to knee injuries and is regaining his confidence and getting closer to his previous form that made him one of the top pg’s in America. McDonald’s All-American 6-9 JaMychal Green is learning and improving weekly. While the Tide went to the Maui Invitational and their game against D-2 host Chaminade technically counts as an away game, Bama hasn’t played a true road game yet. Warning signs include one of the ten worst assist to field goals made ratio (means a lot of dribbling and little passing), the 209th ranked effective fg%, a 67.6% FT%, and a poor rate in allowing opponents offensive rebounds. And remember, these numbers are put up at home, or a neutral court, against a very weak schedule. Bama appears to be a team to bet against.
The Real Deal
How many years has Clemson started out looking like a contender until January hits and then they crumble. In 2005 they start out 9-3 then go on a 7-13 run to end the season. A 12-2 start the next year saw a 7-11 finish. The most promising was the 2007 season when Clemson went 17-0 followed by a 4-10 streak. Something woke the Tigers up as they did make it to the NIT Finals finishing second. Another 12-2 beginning last season was followed by more promise then in the preceding years, a 12-8 finish which included a one-game NIT appearance. This year’s 14-0 run doesn’t appear to be a fluke as Clemson ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency with three players in the top 200 in the nation. Big man Trevor Booker is greatly improved and is blocking shots and getting offensive rebounds while not getting into the same foul trouble he did last year. They open their ACC schedule at home against NC State Jan. 10 and then have an early showdown against currently undefeated Wake Forest. I’m looking for opportunities to play on Clemson.
The Mid-Major to Watch Out For
Illinois State is on a tear. They have just demolished two MVC title-contenders, Creighton and Evansville, and next travel to Bradley Jan. 6, a school with a very good home-court advantage. The Redbirds haven't won in Peoria since 2002. If they win there, they have one main spot they could trip up on, playing at Drake Feb. 15, before a rematch at Creighton in their last regular season contest, Feb. 28. ISU is winning through rebounding, they’ve only been outrebounded in one game, and defense, leading the MVC in defensive FG shooting at 40.4%. They are only giving up 62.8 ppg, slightly higher than last year’s 59.3 when they ranked 11th in the country. Last year ISU was 20-1 SU when holding opponents to less that 65 points. A candidate for MVC Player of the Year, 6-3 G Osiris Eldridge is leading the team with 15.9 ppg while hitting 40.4% behind the arc. Oregon transfer 6-5 G Champ Oguchi has been superb averaging 15.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 1.7 apg. He is hitting 38.8% of his 3’s and 83.6% from the charity stripe and he and Eldridge are the leading scoring duo in the MVC.
Getting Better and Dangerous
Kansas has five new starters. Sherron Collins is having a monster season and Cole Aldrich is turning into one of the premier big men around. Stud JUCO transfer Mario Little just saw first action off of injury.
UCLA doesn’t have the inside scoring presence as in the past but they still are playing exceptional defense ranking 11th in the nation in steal percentage. Alfred Aboya and James Keefe are doing well on the offensive boards while Michael Roll and Darren Collison can light it up with both hitting over 50% from 3-point range.
These are just a few teams that stand out. A team’s performance in their non-conference schedule has such variables as the level of competition faced, did they improve as the season progressed, have they played many, or even any, true road games. With so many teams to wager on, it pays to differentiate between contenders and pretenders.
Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority makes another appearance.
So You Think Coaching is Fun?
f your occupational haven is a sideline or bench where you instruct a gathering of professional playgrounders, it might be time to update your resume. More heads have rolled among the collection of NFL and NBA coaches over the last six weeks than the guillotine claimed during the French Revolution.Okay maybe not that many, but an unprecedented total of 10 locker room leaders between the two leagues have felt the heavy, cold blade cast down upon their livelihoods.
The NBA terminations began on November 22, when the newly-spawned Oklahoma City Thunder fired its first fearless leader, P.J. Carlesimo, after starting the season with an abysmal 1-12 record. (Note- picture was taken when he was hired, you can tell by background, might have had same smile after leaving OKC mess)
Not to be outdone, the Washington Wizards quickly followed suit and dismissed their one-win coach, Eddie Jordan, just a few days later.
The firestorm would gain strength and continue its tumultuous tear through December, victimizing Sam Mitchell (Toronto), Randy Wittman (Minnesota), Maurice Cheeks (Philadelphia) and Reggie Theus (Sacramento).
We as sports fanatics cherish records and the discharging of six NBA coaches before Christmas provided us with another. Six pink slips through seven weeks were the most in league history and the mark is only three firings short of the season record, established during the 2004-05 campaign.
Of course NBA coaches aren’t as tenured as MLB or even NFL mentors, but the firing bug has not eluded the pigskin front offices with four footballers being ousted in the last couple of weeks.
The inevitable “you’ve had your chance, your time is up” reasoning fell on Romeo Crennel after following up a hopeful 10-6 Cleveland Browns year in 2008 with a measly four victories in 2009. Rod Marinelli didn’t have a prayer to keep his job after concluding a perfect 0-16 season with Detroit and becoming the laughingstock of the National Football League. Expect to see steady turnover inside the front office and locker room of the Lions in the coming months.
The inevitable “you’ve had your chance, your time is up” reasoning fell on Romeo Crennel after following up a hopeful 10-6 Cleveland Browns year in 2008 with a measly four victories in 2009. Rod Marinelli didn’t have a prayer to keep his job after concluding a perfect 0-16 season with Detroit and becoming the laughingstock of the National Football League. Expect to see steady turnover inside the front office and locker room of the Lions in the coming months.
Eric Mangini was also relieved of his duties after three seasons with the New York Jets, but perhaps the most surprising move came rumbling through the Rocky Mountains of Denver.
After 14 seasons, two Super Bowl victories, 13 playoff appearances and a composite record of 146-91, head coach and vice president of operations Mike Shanahan was asked to collect his belongings.
After 14 seasons, two Super Bowl victories, 13 playoff appearances and a composite record of 146-91, head coach and vice president of operations Mike Shanahan was asked to collect his belongings.
That one was kind of a head-scratcher considering Marvin Lewis and Herm Edwards still have jobs, but I don’t make the million-dollar decisions.
I am simply here to offer my unscientific explanation for this firing phenomenon and it is summed up in one word…PANIC.
Everyone seems to be in a constant state of panic these days. I can’t trounce through a single day of my life without hearing dire news about the volatile stock market, the lack of job security, food inflation or gas prices.
This panic is undoubtedly a direct result of the economic plague engulfing our nation, and sports owners and general managers are not immune to it.
This panic is undoubtedly a direct result of the economic plague engulfing our nation, and sports owners and general managers are not immune to it.
They envision empty stadium seats and vacant vendor lines so they become desperate.
If a team is stagnant, the ownership feels pressure to grab a hold of their fans quickly and firmly so why not alter the bench chemistry to rekindle interest and create a buzz? Drama sells and there is no better way to create drama than handing a leader his walking papers, just ask the Broncos.
If a team is stagnant, the ownership feels pressure to grab a hold of their fans quickly and firmly so why not alter the bench chemistry to rekindle interest and create a buzz? Drama sells and there is no better way to create drama than handing a leader his walking papers, just ask the Broncos.
I am not saying this is the only reason for the head coaching chaos. Front office feuds, dissatisfied players and inflated expectations are all constant and plausible explanations for this barrage of firings.
Economists have projected 2009 to be one of the most financially dismal years in decades and this foretelling doesn't exclude the sports we embrace. The NFL trimmed 150 jobs off its budget, the NBA digested 80 members of its entity, NASCAR teams are scaling down to the bare bones and the Arena Football League suspended operations after 22 years of existence which will toss thousands onto the unemployed heap.
As evidenced by the recent turmoil, head coaches are at the front of the firing line and may need to brace themselves because the guillotine could continue to lop heads at an alarming rate in 2009.
Freelance writer Scott Cooley makes his first 2009 appearance here.
Tuesday's Best Bets
A great call by the LCC last night on Ohio State. I passed, since I preferred Texas and glad I did. In tonight’s GMAC bowl, they have a similar call. The Top Trend returns a with perfect 9-0 spot in college hoops. Today’s best System probably needs to be read twice to, but 83.9 percent winners is easy to comprehend. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points like Washington, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. The Wizards are catching 12.5 points and this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent over 13 seasons.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The New Mexico Lobos are 9-0 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less over the last two seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) The members of the Left Coast Connection were all over Ohio State last night and they love Tulsa nearly as well at over 77 percent support.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points like Washington, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. The Wizards are catching 12.5 points and this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent over 13 seasons.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The New Mexico Lobos are 9-0 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less over the last two seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) The members of the Left Coast Connection were all over Ohio State last night and they love Tulsa nearly as well at over 77 percent support.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Football Question for the Masses
Now that you have seen USC, Utah and Texas in bowl games, do you believe any of them should have replaced either Oklahoma or Florida for the BCS title game and why?
Leave answers in "comments".
Leave answers in "comments".
Top NBA Teams Trickier to Bet Now
The NBA season is one of the most mentally and physically grueling there is in professional sports. No matter how good or a bad a team is, eventually the 82- game grind catches up with you. This can be especially troubling for NBA bettors, since it is widely considered the most difficult sport to bet sides on, since you are not only going against sharp numbers on a daily basis, but having to speculate on the mental condition of any given team, no matter how good your power ratings are or whatever methods you are inclined to use.With the regular season approaching the mid-point of the year, boredom is often one of factors that play a huge part in how NBA players perform. The beginning of the season energized the good teams or those who were presumed to be good. Now 30-plus games into the season and the playoffs months away, it is easy for teams to lose focus, especially against inferior competition, whom they would normally toy with if in the mood.
The defending NBA champion Boston Celtics are a veteran bunch at most key positions and they started the season right where they left off in battering opponents by over 13 points a game, showing little mercy if the opponent choose not to put in four quarters of work. From the middle of November until Christmas Day, Boston won 19 games in a row, tying for the third longest streak in NBA history before succumbing to the Lakers in Los Angeles. During that amazing stretch, the Celtics won by an average of 14.6 points per game and were 13-6 against the oddsmakers, being a superb Play On club.
Since having the long winning streak snapped, Boston has played indifferent basketball. Doc Rivers’ team ended up losing three of four on Western swing and came home and walloped Washington and was totally disinterested in losing at New York 100-88 as 10.5 point favorites two nights later. Now would be a good time to be very selective with Paul Pierce and company, as the team looks for motivational spots to succeed.
The L.A. Lakers had a similar circumstance; theirs just came earlier in December. On December 1, Kobe Bryant and friends had already put together two win streaks of seven games and stood at 14-1. A one point loss at Indiana didn’t set off any alarms, since it was immediately followed by a 114-102 win over Philadelphia. Two nights later a close 106-104 victory at Washington signaled something might not be right and did that turn out to be true for the NBA bettor. Starting with the Wizards game, the Gold and Purple-clad Lakers would go on to lose an unconscionable 10 games in a row against the spread, though winning outright seven times. The oddsmakers likely feasted on all the Lakers money coming in, since they had to cover at some point, right? (Those that “chase” losses, have moved into one bedroom flats, trying to figure out next move)
What finally broke the cycle for Phil Jackson’s team was the role of an underdog on December 23 in New Orleans (just their second of the season, both in New Orleans), catching 2.5 points and routing the Hornets 100-87. This brought back the focus along with big win at home against Boston and the Lakers are now on new six-game winning streak, with five continuous covers.
What brought the Lakers back to winning ways, defensive intensity. While failing to cover the number in 10 consecutive games, they allowed over 101 points per game. Since then, L.A. has surrendered just 93.8 PPG.
What brought the Lakers back to winning ways, defensive intensity. While failing to cover the number in 10 consecutive games, they allowed over 101 points per game. Since then, L.A. has surrendered just 93.8 PPG.
No team is immune from a prolonged NBA campaign, even a younger team with fresher legs. The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t received tremendous notary this season, since both of last year’s NBA finalists have played so well. That is not to say Cleveland is the Clippers when it comes to pub, especially with LeBron James, let’s just say it quieter.
From Nov. 3 until Dec. 23, Cleveland was beastly 23-2, with absolutely sick 18-5 ATS record. The Cavaliers were scintillating, tearing apart teams like a seven year old opening Christmas presents. A full 18 of their 23 victories were by 10 or more points and 14 of those were by 14 or more points. Finally, Cleveland could go no further. The schedule brought them woeful Washington twice and a back to back with an above average Miami team proved little incentive, as the Cavs are on 1-4 ATS bender, which includes a pair of losses. No doubt the Friday encounter with Boston will get the juices flowing again, but you have to be very careful.
Betting basketball every day is not easy, but it sure helps to know when to ride or get off hot teams. The more you know the better you will do.
Huge Spread Flip in GMAC Bowl
This almost was the fourth matchup of conference champions during the bowl season, but Tulsa and Ball State lost in the championship games. For each team, this is a redemption game, wanting to prove they were as good as they played during the regular year and finish on a positive note. This contest should help Ball State 12-1 (8-3-1 ATS), trying to win a bowl for the first time after four failures. The Cardinals have covered 23 of last 34 games. Tulsa (10-3, 7-5-1 ATS) limited East Carolina to just 278 yards, but the seven turnovers cost them the C-USA title. The Golden Hurricane is just 2-9 ATS in road games after the first month of the season the last couple of years and will be seeking to improve on 6-9 and 4-2 ATS bowl record.Why to Watch and Wager
There should be no shortage of points and oddsmakers are backing up that point with a total of 75. Ball State quarterback Nate Davis was the star of stars in the MAC this season, passing for 26 touchdowns and 3,446 yards, leading an offense that averaged 459.4 yards per game and among the best in the country in throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. Ball State is 7-2 ATS off a loss and 16-5 against the spread versus teams with winning records.
As good as the Ball State offense has been, they look like a mid-level D-2 team compared to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane was second in the country in total offense with 565 yards per game. This is not a one dimensional offense either, rushing for 254.8 yards per game, which compliments David Johnson pass attack that averaged 310.2 YPG in constant hurry-up mode. Tulsa has excellent wide receivers that were part of countless big plays with 10.2 yards gained per pass attempt.
The Golden Hurricane is just 3-8 ATS against teams with winning records, in part because their defense is ordinary, even by C-USA standards in allowing 29.1 points per game. Conversely, Ball State surrendered 18.6 PPG against teams with similar power ratings; however the Cardinals will be without their head coach of six seasons Brady Hoke, who moved west to San Diego State.
Bettors of the GMAC Bowl are ignoring the negatives about Tulsa and moved them 2.5-point underdogs to 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com. Ball State 7-2 ATS as an underdog. GMAC favorites have won and covered last six encounters, with average margin of victory 30 points.
Back to Regular Work Week Plays
A 1-2 day failed to yield any profit, but as we all know, that happens. Do you get the same feeling I do that Brad Childress is over his head in important games? That was among the reasons I played the Eagles yesterday. The best system I could find is not one I’ll personally be wagering on for various reasons, but I can’t argue with the results and hope it is correct. Not that Golden State needs a reason to fail again, but today’s Top Trend is yet another why the Warriors could fail. I have to admit to being surprised by how many bettors from the LCC like the Buckeyes tonight. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams New Mexico State where the line is +3 to -3, off a road win by 10 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. This system comes in a 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are 2-11 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76 percent or more of their attempts this season.
Free Football Selection -3) The members of the Left Coast Connection are solidly behind Ohio State in tonight’s game, with over 78 percent support.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams New Mexico State where the line is +3 to -3, off a road win by 10 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. This system comes in a 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are 2-11 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76 percent or more of their attempts this season.
Free Football Selection -3) The members of the Left Coast Connection are solidly behind Ohio State in tonight’s game, with over 78 percent support.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Texas and Ohio State Wagering Preview
Considering the circumstances involved, tons of plot lines for the Fiesta Bowl with these two heavyweights. One of the issues with the BCS games spread out over several days, it can sway the opinion of the public in a hurry and cause even more confusion. Who didn’t think USC was as good as or better than any team in the country after pummeling Penn State for the first three quarters of the Rose Bowl. The very next day unbeaten Utah ambushed Alabama at their own game, beating them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in decisive 31-17 victory. That night and the next day, it made everybody stop and realize the Utes just beat a team that was 15 minutes away for playing for national title having led Florida 20-17 entering the final quarter of the SEC championship game. The general consensus was Utah should finish no worse than number two in the polls.This brings us to Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS), who is the next flavor in line trying to regain the trust of the public and restate their argument, that yes it was them who was wronged, since neither USC or Utah beat Oklahoma in the first place. The Longhorn coaches for sure and likely the players realize fellow Big 12 partners Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have failed to hold up their end of the bargain in bowls in making the argument the Big 12 was the big cheese this last football campaign.
Texas really needs to come out and obliterate Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) to get back in the front of people minds and hope Oklahoma losses to make their case even stronger, so Longhorns fans and the media can whine for weeks. If Colt McCoy and rest of his teammates play like teams of the past with a 7-1 ATS record after a win by 21 or more points, they should be in good shape.
If you think about it, Texas is in a very similar situation to the 2004 Auburn team that got left behind, with Oklahoma and USC playing in the BCS title game that season. Everyone assumed Auburn who to fighting mad to go pound Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Instead the Tigers controlled the game behind Jason Campbell and a stout defense, but never put Virginia Tech away and the Hokies scored late to cover the six-points in 16-13 loss. Though USC crushed Oklahoma 55-19 and some wondered why Auburn wasn’t chosen instead of the Sooners, the unimpressive performance in the Sugar Bowl prevented an uprising. Does the same fate await Texas?
The Longhorns are terrible bowlers. Texas is 8-16 ATS all-time and even worse 5-12 ATS as favorites. Bookmaker.com opened Mack Brown’s team at 11.5-point favorites and after much scrutiny, has seen them fall all the way down to eight points.
Are you old enough to remember when the Big Ten used to be revered as football conference? Like most of the major cities in the Rust Belt area, with declining population, high unemployment and other maladies, the Big Ten isn’t even mentioned in conversations about the top conference in college football. Ohio State has been swept up in those very conversations with its recent failures. Jim Tressel’s teams have failed to come up in more big games than A-Rod.
This is the Buckeyes big opportunity to repair some of the pride of the Scarlet and Gray. Nobody at all is talking about Ohio State, eerily similar to discussion this time of year about the Indians and the Reds. Coach Tressel has to hope this club can improve upon18-9 ATS record vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.
The Big Ten is abysmal 1-5 and 2-4 ATS in bowl games, with the Buckeyes the last lone hope for their tattered banner to wave somewhat proudly. The defense that allowed 13.1 points per game has to play at a level that most expected all season, not the one that was shredded by USC. The Buckeyes will have to make life hard on McCoy and hope they give just yards and not points. Terrelle Pryor will need the game of his young life finding receivers against a mediocre Texas secondary. Beanie Wells can be a big confidence builder if he can bust a few long runs. Ohio State is 2-7 ATS in last nine non-conference games.
Coach Brown will sell his team on jumping hard and fast on Ohio State, trying to give them that, “Oh no, not this again” feeling. If they can rush the passer and control Wells, they choke off the Buckeyes offense. Protecting McCoy is imperative and the receivers have to be prepared to take some big hits from linebackers and secondary that likes to smack people. Texas is 9-3 ATS in last 12 favorite roles.
The Fiesta Bowl has seen the underdog win and cover five of last seven, with Ohio State participating in two of those victories.
Sunday Best from 3Daily Winners
I know its sour grapes, but I hated to see the refs help decide the Colts and Chargers game. I’m not saying any of the penalties were bad calls, but if is close; let the players on the field decide the game, not the guys with hankies. In all honesty would have felt the same way if I had picked San Diego, having thought I was extremely lucky. What are your thoughts?
Hats off to UW-Milwaukee, who made two trips to Chicago this week for conference games and came away winners both times and gave us a system loss for a 2-1 day. Today we have a rare money line college basketball play. Besides it being right over 90 percent of the time, you can read the rest to understand why I choose it. Sal from the LCC continues his run in the NFL and offers another Free play today. Today’s Top Trend follows the always amusing exploits of the Clippers. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites vs. the money line like UC-Riverside, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, being a good team, winning 60-80 percent or more of their games on the season. This money line system is an extremely productive play at 137-15, 90.1 percent. I can recommend a play like this since the money line is not heavy at -140.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Clippers are 4-16 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last two years.
Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is now on 16-3 run in the NFL, with Arizona winner here and the Under on Indy and San Diego last night. Today he rides Miami at +3.5.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Hats off to UW-Milwaukee, who made two trips to Chicago this week for conference games and came away winners both times and gave us a system loss for a 2-1 day. Today we have a rare money line college basketball play. Besides it being right over 90 percent of the time, you can read the rest to understand why I choose it. Sal from the LCC continues his run in the NFL and offers another Free play today. Today’s Top Trend follows the always amusing exploits of the Clippers. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites vs. the money line like UC-Riverside, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, being a good team, winning 60-80 percent or more of their games on the season. This money line system is an extremely productive play at 137-15, 90.1 percent. I can recommend a play like this since the money line is not heavy at -140.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Clippers are 4-16 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last two years.
Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is now on 16-3 run in the NFL, with Arizona winner here and the Under on Indy and San Diego last night. Today he rides Miami at +3.5.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
When Confidence is out of Control in the NBA
When I left Highlands Elementary School and moved up to Indian Hills Junior High, I felt pretty good about myself. I believed I had conquered grade school and was more than ready for the next step. In fact, I had done so well at Highlands (the school crossing guard of the year award was my proudest achievement) that I had a touch of arrogance (even though I didn’t know what that word meant at such a tender age).I enrolled in Edna Hulquist’s seventh grade Spanish class. Miss Hulquist had to be in her late 70’s, maybe even in her 80’s (twelve-year old kids aren’t a good judge of age). She was about 4’10” tall, maybe 4’11” in heels. She had the oddest habit when she cleaned the chalkboard. She put the eraser in her right hand and rapidly moved it back and forth across the board. There is nothing unusual in that, but what was unique was she also lifted her left hand up while she was erasing and moved it rapidly back and forth just like her right hand even though there was no eraser in her left hand. This is one of those things you have to see in person or view a video of it, but this was before YouTube.
I was doing very well in class. I felt like I was from south of the border when I would trill my double r’s and use the phrase “con mucho gusto”. I became cocky and was confident I was good enough speaking Spanish where I didn’t’ need to read the assigned chapters. My bubble burst as I failed the final exam not knowing the differences between the verbs estar and ser. Yo no estaba contento.
NBA teams can be just like I was. Things are going too well and you lose your edge and bad things happen, such as not covering the point spread. Let’s look at some real-life examples to illustrate this point.
A team can become overconfident when it is performing above its norm such as when a squad is burning the nets shooting 50%+ for three straight games. This has happened 152 times over the past three seasons. Overall, there is nothing worth betting on but if you make the team a home favorite we uncover a 59.6% ticket-cashing angle to play against our hot-shooting boys in their next game. Being home, the team gets to sleep in their own beds and has all of the “advantages” of playing in their own arena. Since they have been shooting lights out, they have to believe they are going to win. Of course, we do have them laying points so they have to win by margin to cover the point spread.
Let’s add in one more factor to see if we can improve that almost 60% angle to play against this team. Let’s make their opponent a losing team, one whose record is below .500. That should help the new opponent be overlooked by our excessively confident team. It improves to the tune of a 75% angle to play against them, 24-8 ATS, the past three seasons.
It doesn’t have to be an opponents’ winning percentage to help make a situation an overly profitable occurrence. Taking our hot team from the field hitting 50%+ three games in a row and put them against a team that has a poor defense, one that is allowing its foes to shoot at 46% or better from the floor, and you have a team that is only covering 33% of the next game following their three contests of blazing nets.
Now, if you want to drill down further by making their next opponent a team with a below .500 mark, they cover only 27.8% of the time. One final additional qualifier of making this a home game and you have a team only beating the point spread 19% of the time.
Our next example involves a team shooting well and playing good defense. A team in its previous game hits 50% or higher from the field. They also play tough defense holding their opponent to less than 40% shooting. The team’s current opponent did the exact opposite in their previous game. They shot poorly, below 40%, and played poor defense allowing 50% or higher shooting from the field. Most people’s first thought would be we have a team that is in good current form playing a team that is not in good current form. Therefore, you would think you have to bet on the team which shot well and defended well in their last game against the team that didn’t play very well.
However, as in many handicapping situations in virtually every sport, you have to think deeper than just considering what appears to be the obvious. Our good shooting/good defending squad played a well-rounded game, good on offense and good on defense. After such a fine performance in the NBA, it is difficult for a team to recreate the effort needed to sustain such a fine showing.
Our bad shooting and poor defensive team played a terrible game on both ends of the court. They are going to be focused in their next game to hopefully make sure it doesn’t happen again. There will be a stronger effort put out by players who are paid to do so. The result when two teams with this type of immediate past performance is the previous “bad team” covers the point spread 68.3% of the time over the past three years. This is the opposite result of what many people would expect.
The quality of competition you are facing can breed a false-sense of superiority. Teams that play a number of lower quality teams in a row and beat up on them are susceptible to a losing game against the point spread. Over the past three seasons, if a team has beaten three teams in a row with each team not having a winning percentage of 45% or higher and now they are playing a worse losing team, one with a below 40% success ratio of winning games, they are covering the number only 28.9% of the time. If our bully team is playing at home, their winning percentage in that fourth game drops even lower to 23.5%.
It is so very interesting how the level of competition you face after your three wins against sub-par teams makes a difference in your spread coverage rate. We mentioned how poorly a team does against a bad team. Just the opposite is true if they are facing a team winning 55% or better of their games after their three-game winning streak. Then our team is cashing tickets in 38 of the 58 instances this situation happened over the past three seasons, a 65.5% success ratio. Playing a better team keeps our team from laying down their guard and has them winning at a better ATS rate than if they were playing a weaker team.
A below average team that is tasting short term success usually reverts back to its normal form. As an example, a team with a season winning percentage below 45% that has won three of its past four games and is playing at home, and their previous game was also at home, only covers the points spread at a 35.7% frequency. If this team is favored by more than three points, their ATS pace falls to 21.7%.
Make sure you take notice when a team could incur a too-relaxed approach to a game due to their recent success. If you do, maybe you won’t have to stay after class and clean the erasers for Miss Hulquist.
Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is a frequent visitor.
Sunday NFL Wild Card Betting Info
Baltimore at MiamiThough it won’t matter to the loser of this AFC Wild Card contest, each team will have made tremendous strides in just one season. What a difference a year has made for these two teams. Last January the Miami and Baltimore were in the market for new head coaches after a tough campaign that saw them finish 1-15 and 5-11, respectively. This January they’re meeting in an AFC wild-card game after winning 11 games apiece.
Has Baltimore really gone from a three point underdog to three point favorite in the same venue since Week 7? The oddsmakers believe so and answers why are just below the surface. Miami’s running was 15th in yards per carry at 4.2. Strip away the success of the Wildcat formation and that number tumbles to 3.8 YPC, which matches up with what Baltimore allows at 3.6, which was fifth in the NFL. Baltimore can also guard the Dolphins receivers, since they might have speed like Ted Ginn Jr or hands like Devone Bess, both are only average in height. Miami will have to continue to use their trio of tight ends to score points if the running game is stuffed in the red zone. The Fins are 18-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points.
A number of intangibles for Baltimore arise. Can Joe Flacco continue to show the poise in a road game where everything is geared towards playing faster in January? His steadiness will be tested. As the season wore on, the coaches had more faith in the deeper passing game and the Dolphins were 25th in yards allowed via the air. Will John Harbaugh and the offensive staff have faith in the rookie signal caller to throw down the field if he has shaky start? The Baltimore defense must play assignment football against the run and not allow Ronnie Brown to cutback to the weakside. The Ravens covered five of last six road games, but are just 1-8 ATS as road chalk.
Teams like Miami that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years are 18-8 ATS in the Wild Card round.
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Intriguing coaching matchup, with Brad Childress going up against his former boss Andy Reid. If Philadelphia gets off to good start, Reid is more inclined to stay with the run, which helps McNabb immeasurably. In this playoff contest, Reid should have a greater focus than Donovan McNabb for how the offense performs. Look DC Jim Johnson to demand gang-tackling on Adrian Peterson, feeling very comfortable his secondary can handle the pedestrian Vikings pass-catchers. Expect Johnson to work on getting into Tavaris Jackson’s head with exotic blitzes to confuse and force bad decisions. The Birds are 10-4 ATS on the road.
Talk about responsibility, Jackson and Peterson will be the two most important offensive players on the turf for Minnesota and both have been shoddy in pigskin protection. If they continue to not be mindful, they open the door for Philadelphia to run thru. Defensively, the Vikes are capable of taking away Eagles running game, which sets up the pass rush on McNabb which is particularly potent at home.
This might not be the right matchup for Minny who is 1-8 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game on the season.
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