System Suggests Fade Suns

When Shaquille O’Neal joined the Phoenix, he and those within the organization said they would need 10 games to get things ironed out and would be ready from that point. Fans who attend games at Planet Orange (US Airways Arena) and others who regularly follow the club hope that assessment is accurate, since Phoenix is 4-6 straight up and against the spread over the last 12.2 percent of the NBA schedule. Phoenix has fallen from second in the Western Conference to sixth and could make run for best of the West or fall out of the playoff picture all together, depending on what occurs the next 19 games.

Arriving in the desert is one of the worst teams in the West in the Memphis Grizzlies, who gave up essentially when they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers. Memphis has won two games since January 26 (2-16, 5-13 ATS) as they try and build team around youngsters like Rudy Gay and Mile Conley Jr. The Grizzlies have one road win 2008, which took place 15 games ago against Indiana on January 2, 90-72 as six point underdogs. For basketball bettors looking for the glass half full, Memphis is 7-7 ATS in last 14 road losses.

Bookmaker.com opened Phoenix as 14-point home favorites and bettors trampled the line, betting up Suns to present 15.5-points. Based on this about to be announced system, has this been a wise wagering method?

Play Against favorites like Phoenix of 10 or more points after having lost four or five of their last six games against opponent after having lost five or six of their last seven games.

What this system is suggesting is two teams are not playing very well at present. Though the double digit favorite is without a doubt the better squad, they have been off-kilter and would figure not to be motivated and play best basketball against inferior opponent.

In the last five years, this system has won 76.2 percent of the time with 32-10 record. The average spread margin has seen the favorite at 11.2 points, with the final score differential coming in well below, at 7.7 points over the 42 contests.
The results over the last few of seasons have been even better at 18-4, 81.8 percent.

Backing bad teams is often hard to do with hard earned cash, however having a strong system for support takes out a large portion of the risk.


This is article I wrote for StatFox.com.