The Final Four – What if?

For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four. While it makes for great story telling when a Cinderella is fit for glass slipper to make the last group, they often flop in this situation like George Mason did in 2006. Instead, this year, we have the top four teams that finished one, two, three and four in the final Coaches’ poll of the regular season.

With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.

What if North Carolina plays their best?

When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.

What if Tar Heels are at their worst?

North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.

What if Kansas plays their best?

When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.

What if Jayhawks are at their worst?

In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.

What if Memphis plays their best?

Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.

What if Tigers are at their worst?

Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.

What if UCLA plays their best?

UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.

What if Bruins are at their worst?

Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.