Looking Ahead at NFL Schedule

You have to hand to the NFL, two and a half months after the last meaningful football game was played and more than three months before training camps open, they have managed to be the most talked about sport on the day they released their schedule for the 2008 season. This dominated the conversation on talk radio from coast-to-coast and ESPN took up two hours of prime real estate to bring Chris Carter and Ron Jaworski into your living rooms to discuss all the possibilities.

Our preference here at the 3Daily Winners is to deal in realities, since trying to guess what will be the top games for next season is nearly impossible, especially trying to come up with complete list. Consider only 20 of the last 36 teams (55.5 percent) the last three years have made the NFL playoffs the following year. It was easy to pinpoint a regular season contest between New England at Indianapolis on Nov.4 was going to be an important game; however nobody could have forecasted a late November Green Bay at Dallas tilt would have almost as much importance. In April, we just have to stick with the facts and for those who wager, facts, as opposed to speculation, win far more bets.

The AFC North draws the NFC East, contributing to them having four teams in the top eight in toughest schedules for upcoming season, based on 2007 results. The four teams will face opponents that had a combined record of 574-540, a 56 percent winning percentage.

Pittsburgh drew the most challenging lot at 153-103, 59.8 percent. The Steelers, besides drawing the always competitive NFC East, and having six rugged divisional battles, also picked up four encounters with arguably professional football’s best division, the AFC South. Throw in matchups at New England on Nov.30 and Pitt hosting San Diego two weeks prior and a pretty easy argument can be made today, coach Mike Tomlin will have 16 games he will have to prepare his squad for, with nary a break. Blindly looking at complete schedule, the only Pittsburgh game that might be (+) or (-) seven points or higher is the Patriots.

Indianapolis on paper falls into the number two spot, taking on opponents with 152-104 mark. Their own division figures to have bumpy contests, yet somebody still has to step up and prove they can beat the Colts, otherwise until further notice; they are still the kings of the division. Indianapolis will be playing in new stadium, which to a certain degree negates home field advantage, especially in the front part of the schedule. The Colts, like the rest of division, will take on the NFC North, making their claim as having the second toughest schedule hard to read, as these teams have been volatile the last few seasons. After a bye in Week four, Indy will play four of next six on the road. They will venture to towns like, Houston, Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Between travels to the Titans and Steelers, that team from the Boston area, will return for another early November visit.

For conspiracy theorists, who can’t stand New England, their schedule is tailor made for those thinking the NFL is covering up something, like the folks who talk about Roswell, New Mexico. Of course all schedules are based on formulas predetermined, still when a team goes thru the regular season undefeated and faces teams that were 99-157 (38.7 percent), its hard not to raise an eyebrow. The Patriots would have more taxing slate if the teams in there own division would supply more competitive games. New England was 12-5 ATS most recently in the AFC East, before oddsmakers threw a couple of 20+ numbers for them to overcome against the Jets and Miami. Owner Robert Kraft’s club also drew the West Divisions from each conference, both who presently look average at best. It will be interesting to see how the organization approaches four trips to the Pacific Time zone, as they have two sets of these. Will they stay out West to prepare for a second game in that area or do they add to wear and tear of flying back and forth?

Don’t expect oddsmakers to cut bettors any slack on the Pats. After putting gargantuan numbers late last season, they won’t hesitate a second to do so again to balance or place the action in their favor.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last six Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For New York Giants backers and those seeking an edge, this was the only team of the prior five Super Bowl champs to post a winning spread record the next season, as they marched to back-to-back titles. The other four champs were 29-34-1 ATS.

2007 Giants TBD
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

The next question pertains to the most difficult schedules prior to the season, what does it mean for a teams record and against the spread? One element that has to be mentioned is the relative strength of the team. If any NFL squad is already a poor outfit, a more arduous slate will likely prevent any real gains in terms of wins and losses. If another club is a perennial playoff contender, they could be affected either positively or negatively, based on how they play in conjunction with higher grade of opposition.

In 2007, Oakland came into the season with worst record and hardest schedule. The Silver and Black showed modest improvement, raising record to 4-12 and 6-10 ATS. Buffalo was tied with the Raiders, facing most burdensome sked and was 7-9 with 10-6 ATS mark. In 2006, The Giants were off a playoff season was tied with Cincinnati with he most grueling card. New York, after a fast start, faded late and had to win last game of the regular season to finish 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS), to return to postseason. The Bengals were believed to be the team on the rise; however the scheduling gods got them and they were 8-8, with 8-7-1 ATS record. Overall, the last 11 teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate were 85-83-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in Pittsburgh for a Steelers postseason party, as only three of the last 11 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

The opposite end of the spectrum will come into question again in 2008. Teams that have had the easiest program to work around have only made the playoffs once of the last seven squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This was a sorry grouping, with 44-68 record and 50-60-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

Bettors will have plenty of time to see what they think about Green Bay starting another quarterback for the first time since 1992, when Aaron Rodgers goes under center on Sept. 8, a Monday night affair with division foe Minnesota.

This is just the beginning, as Buffalo will start with one “home” game in Toronto on Dec.7. With Buffalo’s decaying population and reports as many a 20 percent of season ticket holders coming from north of the border, look for the Bills to have similar arrangement the Packers used to have with Milwaukee in divvying up home games.

Chicago drew the unwanted honor of being the only team to play three consecutive road games, though none are far away. In order, the Bears are at Green Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota. Conversely, the NFL schedule maker rewards them with three straight home contests right afterwards in December. The first two are against warm weather-types, Jacksonville and New Orleans in five days, on a Sunday-Thursday swing. If Da Bears could win both at Soldiers Field, they will have 11 days to prepare for Favre-less Packers.

San Diego will accumulate the most frequent flyer miles, a whopping 33, 516 air miles. The Chargers will make four trips into the Eastern Time zone, plus a sojourn to London. At least the league sort of helped out San Diego in regards to flying to England, playing in Buffalo the week before, shortening distance dramatically, if not improving home lives.

On the subject of travel, why is New Orleans burdened with having to go to London and losing second home game in four years? It was bad enough during Hurricane Katrina; the NFL had the Saints charade as “home” team in the Meadowlands versus the Giants, but to take away another game out of the Bayou! Even San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith, whose team is the visitor, is puzzled why New Orleans was shafted again. "Why do we have the [eight] home games, and all of a sudden the people in New Orleans don't have an opportunity; they've lost one? I don't know," Smith said. "I'm sure they have a system. Maybe it's a coin flip.'' According to NFL spokesperson Michael Signora, no coin flip was involved. Signora said it simply was "a league decision." Nice.