NCAA Title Game Pick

I picked the Kansas to cut down the nets tonight. What impressed me before the tournament was the intensity seldom seen by Bill Self teams, having the killer instinct. Take away the near choke job against Davidson, the Jayhawks last 10 wins have been by 20.6 points per game.

The numbers I worked up show Memphis by one, thus until the flurry of activity today, probably was a fair number. What has impressed me about Memphis is how this team has grown emotionally. When they were undefeated playing Tennessee at home, they came out shooting three’s and making them like they had something to prove against doubting public. As expected they went cold and showed the lack of maturity in still chucking up the lame ducks that were clanking off the rim. Since then, they have learned to trust the inside players more, leaving greater opportunities for Chris Douglas-Roberts inside and out, along with creating more room for explosive Derrick Rose to penetrate. John Calipari, has turned into Jerry Tarkanian without all the previous baggage.

With the switch in favorites, you still can’t ignore the last 10 times a team has been the betting public’s choice by five or fewer points they are 10-0 SU and ATS. At the same time, Bill Self would know his team beat the number one team in the country, was favored to win and is now an underdog. Besides the obvious significance of the game, this is a coach’s dream for motivational speech. Self, dating back to his days at Illinois and Tulsa, is 16-4 against the spread off a win as underdog. Kansas is also 7-1 ATS as underdogs.

Why I like Kansas is because I think the bench is a bit more productive. Sasha Kaun has scored points in big situations and Sherrod Collins is instant excitement. That’s not to say Memphis bench is bad, just not as good as the Jayhawks.

I see the first team to 75 points wins the game and I believe that will be Kansas.