The Conference semi-finals begin with a pair of high quality 2 vs 3 matchups, certain to bring a smile to every hoops fan and professional basketball bettor. While upsets are exciting, invariably in the NBA playoffs, it makes for a less than entertaining seven game series in the next round. Each series has one terrific individual head to head matchup which should be reason enough for any hoop head to want to watch.
(3) Orlando vs (2) Detroit Pistons -340 to win series
When these teams met in the playoffs last year, Detroit swept Orlando 4-0, with the Magic at least being competitive from wagering perspective with 1-1-2 ATS record. This season Orlando has make marked improvement, having the third best record in the Eastern Conference. A sure sign of the maturation of the Magic has been winning on the road, were only Boston and the Lakers has better records, with Orlando 27-14 SU and ATS during the regular season. What changed for Orlando was the continued evolution of Dwight Howard, who is inching ever closer to his All-Star Superman persona. He’s emerged as the league’s best center and has a fresh cockiness to his game, without be obnoxious. Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis have worked cohesively with Howard. If opposing team’s double down on Howard, one or both is open to drill jump shots, or if they start hot early, it opens up the middle for Howard to maneuver more freely. It is no coincidence the Magic 15-6-1 ATS as road dogs and will have a chance to steal Game One of the series.
Rasheed Wallace will be assigned the job of controlling the Orlando big man and he will use his array of tricks to do so. Wallace will kick, knee, push and hold Howard every chance he gets and that starts during the center jump. Wallace will carry a running dialogue to get in his head. From a skill standpoint, Wallace will hope the jump shot is working, forcing Howard out from under the basket, making room for Antonio McDyess, Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton to work underneath. Detroit is 31-12 ATS versus teams like Orlando who make six or more 3-point shots a game on the season. The most evident advantage the Pistons have is in the backcourt, with Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. Orlando turns the ball over three more times per game on average than Detroit, which for practical purposes gives the Pistons four free points a game. Coach Flip Saunders has to encourage Billups to get the ball up the floor faster, as he’s started annoying habit of walking the ball up, wasting three or four seconds per possession.
If this was 2009, no hesitation in taking Orlando to win this series, but as the Pistons showed in last two Philadelphia games, when motivated, they can still play.
Doug's Take – Detroit -340 in six
(3) San Antonio vs (2) New Orleans Spurs -150 to win series
Tony Parker vs Chris Paul for at least four consecutive hook-ups, delicious. A number of experts didn’t even think these two would get together, for the same basic reason, just looking at it differently. Paul and New Orleans were greener than a plush spring lawn in playoff experience to take down fragile, yet battle tested Dallas. The Spurs having won four NBA titles were considered to be like Wilford Brumley (oatmeal guy), to ancient to stand to the charges of a retooled Phoenix squad. In the end, both had plenty of what they needed and handled opponents with ease.
It’s a benefit for the Hornets to have already play San Antonio four times this season (2-2 SU & ATS, because an unsuspecting opponent would have thought they’d been mugged and cheated). New Orleans will open at home as favorites, where they covered 21 of last 28 (75 percent). Chris Paul will still be able to penetrate, just not as often. How you beat San Antonio is with EXTREME patience. You have to be willing to continually settle for 15-18 foot jump shots and you have to make 42-48 percent of them every game. The Spurs will hang out the “Closed” sign most of the time in the lane and as the Suns saw again, they will jump out to defend the three-ball. Dribbling like Steve Nash does is open invitation to hacks and slaps on the wrist, which San Antonio just doesn’t get called for. David West and Tyson Chandler are going to need super-sized series, because the Spurs refuse to beat themselves.
The San Antonio Spurs are the New England Patriots. Loved and admired in the early years of gathering championships, now vilified everywhere but San Antonio metro. Why Greg Popovich will be in the Hall of Fame as a coach is his attention to detail. Since becoming the Spurs coach, he’s been without peer and has developed Bill Belichick dismissive persona to further harbor dislike. No matter one’s feelings, Pops has three stars and like a handyman’s toolbox, he has just the right tool to find sitting on the bench to defeat any opponent. Oddsmakers make it impossible to collect money on a consistent basis on the Black and Silver clad Spurs, thus all they do is win games, especially this time of year.
The Spurs are only 23-20 and 16-27 ATS on the road this season and will not have home court advantage. This often is the first true signal of decline. Just maybe the Hornets 33-11 and 28-16 ATS home record can surprise, especially knowing San Antonio is just 7-12 SU and against the spread as the visitor since Jan. 1 against teams that made the postseason.
Doug's Take – New Orleans +120 in seven
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment