Lakers Can't Win Game 6

A great deal has been made and rightfully so about how dominate home teams have been in the conference semifinal round of the NBA Playoffs, with record now at 20-1 and 14-5-2 against the spread. This home team dominance could end at any time and likely will, since nothing historically suggests it will continue. Yet what factors have led to such an occurrence. Understanding this provides the answer in Utah tonight.

The single biggest explanation and one that is rather simplistic is the shots that fall at home, are not being made on the road. Why is this? Start with the mindset of each player in home/road dichotomy. At home, the team and thus the player is more comfortable in familiar surroundings, the crowd cheering invigorates player on both sides of the floor. He’s play with more passion, more energy and more importantly, is more relaxed. He gives the extra effort on defense fighting through screens, takes the ball to the basket with more abandon to dunk or be fouled.
A legitimate question would be how is this different than the regular season? The answer is as simple as looking at the date on the calendar, it’s the playoffs. The stakes are higher, reputations of today’s players are on the line and the pressure is immense.

This leads to the deeper aspect of why road teams can’t win, mental toughness. This entire generation of players grew up being coddled since they were in grade school. They were always told how great they were and most negative elements were removed from their lives, setting them up for success. What was left out was how to deal with adversity, real adversity like ordinary people face everyday. Why coaches preach defense is no matter how good a player is offensively, some nights the shots just won’t fall. But defense, well this is getting into stance each time down the floor fighting to not let your man score.

Playing close attention, watch how many times, a visiting player have missed two or three shots in a row and it is his man that scores the basket. The difference is not only on the offensive side, it’s on the defensive end as well, lending to twofold problem. This in turn leads to explanation of why so many of these games have been double digit wins for the home team. Just like many of the Super Bowls in the 1980’s and 90’s, that were blowouts. When two highly trained and talented teams are running at peak efficiency, once one lets down, the other will race right by its opponent, leading to lop-sided scores. This is precisely what has happened in this round of the playoffs. The home team is completely dialed in, the visitor; being defended more arduously, becomes frustrated when shot attempts fail, carries that baggage to the other side of the floor and gives up a basket or stupid foul still thinking about missing previous shot.

This four point swing doesn’t have to happen very often in the course of a game either to make any contest a blowout. A mere five trips in the home teams favor, makes an 18-20 win, especially in the fourth quarter.

While teams like San Antonio cause outrage with dirty tactics and call for full understanding of the rules, no denying they play to win. Why have we seen a drop in teams from this country in international play, despite having the best players in the world? Why do we continue to lose to less gifted teams? Today’s players are mentally softer and don’t adjust well to challenges that regular people face in everyday life.

Today, as you look at Utah being bet up from a two-point home favorite to four at most wagering outlets, it’s comfortable to know that the Jazz are 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season or the Lakers are 15-26 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. But what is really important to understand is back at EnergySolutions Arena, Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer will do everything possible to send this to a Game 7.

That is not to say the Lakers can’t win, however if they did it would be the first time either team showed it had what it took to step up and show stout-heartedness and grit.