Even though the Los Angeles Lakers won’t be singing Willie Nelson’s, “Turn out the lights the party’s over” song, they will be trying to turn out the dim hopes of San Antonio Spurs for this season. Much like somebody trying to get a drink after last call, the Spurs Brent Barry’s last ditch effort, came up empty. It’s back to La-La Land, where the stars will be brighter than ever, looking to bask in the glow of the Lakers advancing to the NBA Finals.
It was unbelievable to watch Brent Barry get fouled on the game’s last play, (he did) and San Antonio not make a huge stink about it. The Spurs players were maybe too stunned to react and coach Greg Popovich’s infamous stare would zero impact. The fact remains, San Antonio had no business stealing that game, since they did little over the course of 48 minutes to do so.
After a brilliant Game 3, Manu Ginobili played like he just saw the premiere episode of Denise Richards reality TV-show, “It’s Complicated”. The Lakers defenders did a significantly better job of making the Argentinean go to his right and he was held to just seven points, which affected his defense also.
Though constantly double-teamed from different angles, Duncan scored 29 and grabbed 17 boards, yet he’ll be haunted by missing more one-foot shots (7) than a 10-year old at basketball camp. This situation does not set up well for San Antonio, with 24-25 record this season on the road, with only 18 covers.
What has changed from last year to this season for the Spurs to be in this predicament? Start with being one year older across the board. San Antonio knew they could beat weak-minded Phoenix, owned more experience than New Orleans, but the Lakers are different. They are long to clog up the middle; they have fresher and younger legs and have the only coach that can truly match wits with Popovich in Phil Jackson. The last point might be the most important, as teams or players age, they lack the ability to take it to the rim and finish. San Antonio’s best three players in the paint are Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker, the latter two being guards. The rest of the roster is essentially jump-shooters, leaving the team at the mercy of how they shoot. When L.A. has clogged the paint to stop everyone but Mr. Fundamental, they’ve won.
The Lakers are 7-0 (5-2 ATS) at the Staples Center in the postseason and are the last team still playing not to lose on the home hardwood. Los Angeles is up to 10-2-1 ATS after a straight up win and coach Jackson has again adroitly used his roster to the team’s advantage. He knows his club has a speed and quickness edge in this series. Jackson makes great adjustments, but more importantly, he knows almost immediately what he will receive from his bench players. Vlade Radmanovic has played exceptional at times; Sasha Vujacic has played extended minutes when he shoots well and Jordan Farmar has been defensive dynamo in short spurts. Though his minutes will vary greatly depending on opposition, Luke Walton was a big contributor off the pine in Game 4.
The Lakers opened as 7.5-point favorites at most wagering outlets and were quickly bet up to eight, with bettors smelling the blood in the water. It would be foolish beyond comprehension to believe San Antonio will just show up and play like the Memphis Grizzlies. This team and whole organization is too proud and has the heart of a champion and is 14-5 against the spread in Conference Finals for a reason. They will have to be contrarian to what they have been all season, with 2-10 ATS mark in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season.
All four games in this series have gone Under to total and linemakers have established Game 5 at 193.5. Los Angeles is 8-2 UNDER after a win and San Antonio has played UNDER in last six games with a day’s rest.
My intial thought was L.A. motors past the Spurs. Don't like the trend that shows the Lakers are 9-23 ATS in home games off a road win by three points or less, with winning margin 3.6 points. Plus the aforementioned San Antonio pride. Lakers on the money line makes the most sense.
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