Baseball’s Bettors Good, Bad and Ugly

As the baseball season approaches the halfway point, here is a look at who are the good and bad teams to wager on and some so ugly, they make onions cry. Take a gander at what numbers are important and what has been happening to these major league clubs.

GOOD

Chicago Cubs 49-29 +14.6 units
The Chicago Cubs continue to be the best and safest bet in major league baseball, thanks to a powerful every day lineup manager Lou Pinella has to work with and versatility to rest players. The Cubs have bludgeoned visiting teams, scoring a baseball best, 6.5 runs per game at what are truly the Friendly Confines for the North Siders. Run line players should note jaw-dropping 2.6 runs per game edge. The Cubs are 33-9 at home for sick +19.5 units of profit. Keep an eye on their fortunes, with 16 of next 22 games on the road.

Tampa Bay 46-31 +13.4 units
Some people believe the world is more amiss than anytime in history, with home foreclosures, rising inflation and the job market upside down. Yet as crazy as all these things are, for fans and bettors of baseball, Tampa Bay having one less loss than the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox in late June, well in today’s world, this might make sense. Like most of the top teams in baseball in 2008, the Rays have superior home field edge at 30-13, +14 units. It’s all about the pitching for Tampa Bay, being third in ERA and batting average allowed. What might be the most difficult aspect to comprehend; the Rays are 32-17 when favored. Raydiculous!

St. Louis 45-34 +11.5 units
The overused term “thinking out of the box” is on its way to infamy; however it may be the only way to describe what St. Louis has done in 2008 and continues to do. Ask anyone outside of St. Louis to name starting lineup for the Cards and most are stuck after Albert Pujols. But players like Ryan Ludwick and Skip Shumaker are making a name for themselves and former Angels retreads Troy Glaus and Adam Kennedy are drinking from manager Tony LaRussa fountain of youth. The Cardinals are above average offensively in scoring 4.7 RPG, yet the real secret is inside the numbers. The Redbirds are 2nd in walks, 3rd in on-base percentage and 25th in strikeouts. Also, pitching coach Dave Duncan is working miracles with this pitching staff.

BAD

Philadelphia 43-36 -0.7
The Philadelphia franchise is still on track to win the NL East division; nevertheless recent ugly play has cut lead down to next to nothing. The Phils have lost 8 of 10, thanks to of all reasons, the offense. In the losses, they have averaged 2.3 runs per game, far below normal for a team that was ringing up 5.5 RPG before slump. Over the next week, Philly still has trips to Texas and Atlanta. They must avoid close contests, since they are 30-11 in games decided by two or more runs.

Atlanta 39-41 -8.4 units
Remember when Atlanta was whippin’ up on all-comers at Turner Field not that long ago? The Braves are still a highly respectable 28-14 (+9.7 units) at home, yet are only 3-6 in last nine for Bobby Cox in the white uniforms. With 11-27 record as visitors, road warriors hardly apply to these Braves. Maybe a quick trip to Canada (Toronto) will help Atlanta over the weekend before returning home. The Bravos must find a way to avoid or conquer one run games, since they are beastly 4-20.

New York Mets 38-39 -10.6 units
You fire your manager in the middle of the night and the owner of the team wants no part of the blame, despite known meddling. Somehow the club wins four of six contests on road, in spite of forlorn prior record, only to come home and lose a series to a Seattle team in shambles, go figure. The Mets are like a ship lost at sea, as interim manager Jerry Manuel has called out players, gotten kicked out of game in short tenure and had extremely rare fielding practice during the season. By all appearances this is a team without a heart or soul.

UGLY

San Diego 32-47 -18.6 units
Building a ballpark downtown, where the night air is thicker than a three-pound porterhouse, in retrospect might not have been ideal for team looking to upgrade offense. Additionally, it only seems like the outfielders need binoculars to see one another from their positions. With this information, how does one account for 11-25 road (-13.1 units), when San Diego players should be thrilled to play in parks where could actually score runs? GM Kevin Towers huffed and puffed earlier in the season about taking this team apart, but one question, who assembled the lineup that is in the bottom 20 percent of virtually every offensive category? With the starting pitchers feeling like they have to throw a shutout each time out, the pressure gets to them. Maybe the Padres should schedule more day games since they are 20-37 at night.

Cleveland 35-43 -19.9 units
Let’s give Cleveland credit; they might be better than they look. The Indians are 18th in runs scored and 11th in runs allowed. They are 20-20 at home (-11 units, ouch) and 27-27 when favored (-13.3 units, double ouch). Under the lights the Tribe is also .500 (27-27), but in Chris Farley-speak, the -8.4 units does leave a mark. Digging just at the surface, this Cleveland club is a fraud by checking other more important numbers. They are 29th in batting average and 26th in total bases, meaning they are prone to occasional offense outbursts, which artificially inflate on the field day-to-day production. If not for Cliff Lee at 10-1 (Indians 11-3 in all starts), the starting rotation would be further exposed and bullpen has 4.81 ERA, with 8-14 record and sad-sack 52 percent save percentage.

Seattle 28-50 -24.8 units
After winning 88 games in 2007, Seattle believed they were on their way to seriously competing with the Angels again. Instead, what happened is reality set in. The Mariners have six everyday players in the lineup who were born in the 1970’s. Most or all are past their prime and last season could have been one last hurrah. There is a laundry list of negative numbers hanging over Seattle and nothing suggests today, the M’s will be better soon. Thanks Bill Bavasi.

Doug Upstone is also feature writer for StatFox.com