NL Worst (West) Strictly Play Against Teams

It was the late king of the one-liners, Henny Youngman who had the joke, “Take my wife – Please”. This would be an apt description of the National League West, where only Arizona is over .500 on the season. Just a half a season removed from having two teams competing for the National League crown last October, this division is about as popular as an SUV gulping 12 miles a gallon. Let’s take a look back to figure this mess out.

In 2004, the Dodgers won the division with 93 wins, San Francisco won 91 and San Diego was better than competitive with 87 victories. 2005 saw a complete reversal of fortunes, as three teams in the division lost 87 or more games and the Padres were good fodder for jokes as division champs at 82-80. 2006 saw a sharp improvement in a very competitive NL West, with Los Angeles and San Diego both in the postseason and Arizona and Colorado at least respectable at 76-86. Last year, everything was on the upswing for this division, with four teams over .500 and three teams were battling for two spots in the NL playoffs. Talk about your Wild, Wild West!

What changed so dramatically, that this division is collectively -65.9 units, which includes games against each other, where somebody has to win?

We’ll start with first place Arizona. On May 18, the Diamondbacks were 28-16 and looked every bit as good, if not better than the team that won 90 games a season ago. Most figured Arizona would cruise along this season; however the cracks were apparent last year, they just never manifested themselves. The D-Backs allowed 20 more runs than they scored, more befitting a team winning 79 games, not 90. Another factor of concern coming into the season was the Snakes 32-20 record in one run games in 2007. This was easily the most in baseball and the highest winning percentage also. These tend to be random events from year to year and Arizona would need marked improvement in other areas to compensate. Arizona hitters like to swing aggressively, a little too aggressively, since they are third in the majors in strikeouts. When they score runs, this is easy to overlook, however when your team is 13-24 in last 37 games, not so much. How bad has the offense been, they have scored three or fewer runs 72.9 percent of the time (27) in the last 37 trips to the ball yard.

The Dodgers roster has been overhauled the last few years and has introduced a number of young players like Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp into the lineup. While the talent is evident, so is the youth, with plenty of mistakes going around. Other veteran players like Jeff Kent have not produced and Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones have been on the DL. Not having an ace like Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88) has had trickle down affect on starting staff and an offense that is 27th in runs scored only exacerbates problems. Down 11 units, Dodgers backers need to see offense come together to help a decent pitching staff to make a run.

With the departure of Barry Bonds, San Francisco can finally go a new direction and do what they should have done three years ago, rebuild from the ground up. Despite 36-47 record, in many ways the Giants have been better than anticipated in certain areas. For bettors, they have the best money line unit record (still negative) at -5.3 units in the division. They are one of only seven teams to be at or above .500 (22-22, +6.3 units) and have a winning record of 15-13 in the division. Certain all-star, Tim Lincecum (8-1, 2.39) gives San Fran a chance every time he pitches and 25-year Jonathan Sanchez has surprised, with Giants winning 13 of his 17 starts. The 26th ranked offense is not going to score many runs, with lack of power and speed, but if starting pitchers Matt Cain and Barry Zito could pitch anywhere near ability, these goofy Giants could be contenders in the wacked-out West.

The laws of gravity finally caught up with San Diego. With only 1B Adrian Gonzalez a reliable offensive threat, the Padres are no threat to score many runs. The starting pitchers have way too much pressure on them to be almost perfect because of lack of run production and the wear shows on their faces and demeanor on the mound with runners on base. Even when the starting pitchers give them a chance, former closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman, is 40 years old and he is why San Diego has the worst save percentage in the big leagues at 48.4 percent. Too many poor personnel decisions and lack of production is why the Pads are the best Play Against team in baseball.

The Colorado Rockies as it turns out were a mirage. Much like seeking a Taco Bell at 3 AM with a belly full of Coors, everything was not as it appeared. Whether they put the baseballs in a humidor or not, Colorado has to score runs to win and averaging 4.2 per game is not enough, particularly when your team has the third-worst ERA in baseball at 4.83. The Rockies have had their share of injuries with Troy Tulowitzki and others missing time. Tulowitzki can speak with candor about what he has seen. "We haven't played well at all," admitted the shortstop. "We deserve to be in last place." Colorado is putrefactive 12-30 (-15.6) on the road, 22-42 (-21.6) taking on RH starters and 11-23 (-12.5) in this decaying division. Because Colorado has not hit with authority and the pitching reeks like a bottle of Coors Light left open behind a chair from a party after a week, the Rocks are rancid 11-24 in games decided by four or more runs.
With a half a season left, either playing against or staying away from the NL Worst is prudent attack.