Understanding Baseball’s Magic Number 4

The major league baseball All-Star break was a welcome relief for many, a time to take a few days off to stretch the mind, offer a few more simple pleasures and generally take it easy. For others, the void is an unwelcome interruption from the daily grind of churning out numbers. Having studying numbers with regularity at least since April, if not dating back to November when the NBA season started, this chasm is a break that throws off the kismet of where a sports bettor expects to end up.

For those of us that fit the latter group, a healthy exercise is to reflect where we have been and where we are going. This season to date in major league baseball, 4.5 has been the number, this is what all teams have averaged either scoring or allowing in 2008. Since half-numbers of course are impossible to determine outcomes, decided to choose what is the most talked about number in the media these days –four- like the one Brett Favre has worn.

For starters, let’s review the division leaders or those who are very close. The Los Angeles Angels have held opponents 65 times to four runs or less among its 98 games (66.3 percent) and not surprisingly are tied for the best record in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay are in a dogfight in the AL East and the Red Sox have held opponent to four or fewer runs 57 times and the first place Rays on 58 different occasions. Division leaders out of Chicago, the White Sox and the Cubs, have held opponents to four runs or less 55 and 57 times respectively.

The importance of this figure is shown by the results of another division leader, Arizona. When the D-Backs started 20-8, 19 times (67.8 percent) they held the opposing team to four or fewer runs. Since then, that percent has fallen to 47.1, as only 33 times in the next 70 contests have the Snakes held opponents below this number, in part, accounting for 28-42. With Arizona’s lack of hitting receiving so much attention in slide, aside from All-Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre at best.

How important is this stat as it relates to teams having winning streaks? Consider the New York Mets as the most recent example. The Mets had won 10 in a row, to catapult back into the NL East race. During that hot streak they were12-2 in those 14encounters, surrendering more than four runs just three times. Compare this success with what it’s taken in blocks of games in which they held opponents to this few of runs. Prior to this successful point in time, it took 24 games to hold foes 12 times below five runs (10-14 record). Before then, 22 games (11-11) and starting April 19, it took 24 trips to the ballpark (11-13) to reach the figure of 12 again, proving how important good pitching is.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a surprise team, hanging around the lead in the NL Central, despite incredible injuries to many pitchers. Manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have pieced together pitching staff, and when the Cards to teams to 0-to-4 runs, they are 47-17 in 2008.

Minnesota’s 24-9 run to creep ever closer to Chicago, has been fueled by great pitching, as clubs in other uniforms have scored four or less runs 23 times.

Because of the differences of ballparks, teams style of play, this is theory is not absolute and has a flip side relating to scoring runs. The San Diego Padres play in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball and have matched the Chicago White Sox for allowing opponents to score four or less runs 55 times. The Padres problems revolve around offense, since an enormous 67 times (67.6 percent for those keeping track at home), they have failed to score five or more runs in a game.

Weak hitting teams like Washington and Seattle do not score enough runs with or without decent pitching. The Nationals have failed to break the barrier beyond four runs 61 times and the Mariners an even worse 66 times.

Detroit’s pitching has been suspect all season, thus they are more dependent on scoring runs. In the Tigers first 60 games, they failed to touch home plate five times 27 different ways, this led to 24-36 record. In last 38 contests, they have scored a minimum of five runs 24 times and are 25-13 to square up record at .500.

Do you think Florida counts on hitting? The Marlins are 52-46 and have been outscored by 25 runs in 2008, thanks to allowing the third most runs in the National League. When Florida scores five runs or more, they are 48-14. When the Fish swim into four or fewer runs, they are miserable 14-32.

For those handicapping these figures, you have to understand what you are working with. It a team doesn’t score runs, and is facing starting pitcher with quality earned run average and is backed up with good bullpen, they are not going to have much success. In this situation, to seek value, you would need this team probably to be at home, scoring runs at above average rate of five or more contests and having their number one or two starter throwing. If these elements come together, a solid play on home underdog is worth contemplating.

The other aspect is to match the team’s recent play with how they are scoring and allowing runs compared to the oddsmakers total. If two clubs have been scoring five or more runs, for six or more games on average and the total is 8.5 for example, the oddsmaker is telling us two good starting hurlers are facing one another. In this case, it is a matter of understanding bullpens and which team is better equipped to play lower scoring game, knowing this should lead you down the path of profitability in the second half of the season.