Strong Points for Betting College Football Early

Most everybody wagering on college football has done a fair amount of studying college football in preparation for the beginning of the season. Yet until any of us can see teams play or study boxscores, a certain amount of uncertainty still is in the air. College coaches believe they have prepared their teams well, yet unlike the NFL, you don’t get to hit against another team in a relatively competitive situation. This is a cause for consternation for coaches and bettors alike wondering what is best method to approach beginning of college football betting season.

Two simple elements to look for are returning offensive and defensive linemen, plus quarterbacks. A team loaded with experience up front has been through spring and summer practices and knows what the expectations of the coaches are and what it will take to win in their respective conferences. Teams that return four or five offensive linemen have the continuity aspect down cold and barring coaching changes, just have to go out and execute game plan. Defensively, a veteran cast up front can cover up deficiencies in other areas for the short term.

Every year, we hear about a team being better than expected in November, having upperclassmen leadership on the offensive line with experience. Coincidently, a team may have all key skill position players back, yet struggles, as newcomers on either side of the pigskin were neither good enough nor cohesive for the team to meet expectations, causing bettors to squander money.

An experienced signal caller can be a huge plus, especially for an underdog team. If he has enough weapons around him, he places his team in position to pull upset or at least cover the backdoor late in a game, if he has ability to throw the ball well.

We contacted Ed from RightAngleSports to share his thoughts about this topic. Ed is one of the most respected handicappers in college sports and he provided these insights. “One area I look at is teams with new coaches. Some people believe these coaches might have edge since the opponent doesn’t know what’s coming. Though I haven’t completed all my research, teams with new head coach, against lined opponent, are 14-29 against the spread since 2003 in opening games. I like to play against these teams especially if they are changing offensive systems. This can be especially true if a new quarterback is taking over.”

Ed also had opinion on the Totals of these early encounters. “A lot of the totals are not adjusted enough when a coach brings in new system. If a coach brings in a new system (offense) that is pass-oriented, which is different than the year before, oddsmakers will be slow to adjust until they see what happens, wanting to be cautious before making adjustments. They will move the number to a degree, just not a great deal.”

“As a general philosophy, if you like an underdog early in the season, consider the money line as a value play, with better payouts if they pull the upset, which happens every year.”

If you like to follow trends, don’t get caught up leaning on them, since many non-conference teams don’t play one another often enough for these angles to matter, unless they are traditional rivalries like Notre Dame and Michigan. It’s always tempting to add validity to team this 11-1 ATS against an opponent, the problem here could be they have played those dozen games over 40-year period, rendering trend useless.

Steve Makinen from StatFox had this to offer,” Be sure to utilize the returning starter information but don't assume that a wealth of experience returning or lack thereof automatically means a lot. For instance, a team that won two games a year ago might not be better off with a lot of starting players back. Meanwhile, a program on the rise or one that has been solid for a number of years will probably maintain its success even if it isn't returning a lot of core players. Be careful when making these assumptions. Many pointspreads are predicated upon this information and can often be misleading.”

Follow these tips to help you start on the winning side for this big opening weekend of five days of college football betting.