Don’t Follow Bad College Football Fundamentals

When university presidents decided to add a 12th football game to the regular season it was done so for one reason, put more money in everyone's pockets. Football fans were excited about the idea of an additional football game for the teams they watched and followed and those who love the sport were thrilled with the potential of more quality matchups in non-conference action. At the same time, these visionaries(?)that run college football decided to change the names of Division 1-A and Division 1-AA to FBS and FCS, causing uproar for what appeared to be senseless change.

Now with a chance to understand history, we see these men and women were much smarter than I gave them credit for (or maybe I’m giving them too much credit) by making a name change. These men of hirer learning had inside information that most all of the teams they govern over were not about to make their lives more difficult by playing harder opponents, but rather would dip into the pool of teams below them. On the rare occasion a school from the big boy table losses to one from a lesser grouping it sounds so much better to lose to a FCS team than Division 1-AA, which has a more negative connotation.

What does this have to do with college football handicapping you ask, everything. One aspect of betting on sports is fundamental handicapping. This is the nuts and bolts of sports handicapping, where statistical analysis is done. This is where many smart bettors and handicappers find statistical edges in matchups that help them find winners, especially in the beloved underdog role.

With nearly every team not in the Sun Belt Conference having found their way to the FCS, the world of fundamental handicapping has been severely altered. (Note- Playing SBC teams are like playing state-run lotteries as compared to illegal off-shore wagering. It’s still gambling no matter how you look at it, but because the Sun Belt is FBS, it’s more tolerable)

Before the season began, the Indiana Hoosiers were supposed to finish either 10th or last in the Big Ten conference. After a successful season that included emotional bowl appearance for departed coach Terry Hoeppner, the talent level was believed to be pretty thin. The Hoosiers first three games were against Western Kentucky, FCS Murray State and Ball State. Indiana was plowed under at home by a very good Ball State squad that ran for 224 yards and passed for 239 yards against the Hoosiers. With Indiana having played two other inferior opponents and holding them to 101 total yards rushing, they were listed as 36th in the country in run defense. It’s pretty safe to say, the Hoosiers won’t be staying in this neighborhood and they have fallen again after Michigan State ran for 236 yards against them, dropping Indiana to 64th. Look out below!

Florida State is another team where it is nearly impossible to get a correct read on. The Seminoles are desperate to return to among the hierarchy of college football and scheduled not one, but two FCS teams to start 2008. At least Florida State whipped Western Carolina and UT-Chattanooga 69-0 and 46-7 respectively. Though everyone knew Bobby Bowden’s team was still living though academic suspensions and playing many sophomores and freshmen on the two deep, it was easy to wax nostalgic about the ‘Noles spearing foes like the old days. The Seminoles nation came to a crashing halt when they lost at home to Wake Forest as four-point favorites. The typical mistakes we have grown accustomed to seeing by Florida State were on display against a better more disciplined foe. After averaging 527.5 yards in the first two FCS contests, the Seminoles came back to earth, with 220 yards against the Demon Deacons. After that contest, Bowden’s bunch was still 17th in scoring offense and fraudulent 34th in total offense. This past week game against Colorado didn’t hurt Florida State, but it still has a ways to go to earn respect as Play On team.

One last example is the Kansas Jayhawks. Coach Mark Mangino’s club came into this season off a splendid campaign. Kansas has played one FCS team every year but one of Mangino’s seven seasons and this year Sam Houston State volunteered to be vanquished. The Bearkats are a passing team, rushing for only 45 yards. Florida International is one of the worst teams in the FBS world and they could muster only 66 yards rushing and 73 passing against the Jayhawks. As Kansas prepares for Iowa State this week, they are ranked 21st in run defense at 94.7 yards per game and in fact are nowhere near that talent-wise.

This is not a new revelation, as football programs throughout the decades have dodged quality opponents for years. Bill Snyder of Kansas State scheduled three wins every year in Manhattan, even after he didn’t need to. What’s different now is there is a better method of gauging tangible results. Playing schools in the same division at least comes with a point spread to use as basis. Too often many gamblers will peruse the team stats without going inside the numbers and are perplexed when they lose wagers in conference games on teams that had “good stats”. Fundamental handicapping is a tremendous way to ensure you are on the right side of any game. This provides a valued look at a team’s performance for the current season, both offensively and defensively in a variety of categories. What is most important is to have the right material in which to learn from, to make astute and wise, objective judgments. StatFox such product packaged to easily view what has happened to any particular team.

Winning at college football is never easy; it is even more difficult when you have deceptive information, from what appears to be a reliable sources. If winning is truly more important than just betting, make sure you make the time to have the right numbers, to give yourself the absolute best opportunity to win.