Ohio State at USC Wagering Outlook

Did you hear about this little college football game their playing Saturday, involving two of the most recognized universities on the college football planet? Each of these fine schools has set a new standard in this millennium with superior coaching and athleticism that only a few other programs can possibly keep up with. This magnificent match-up could be the first of two games between these powerful programs this season, with the other site to be determined.

USC’s head coach Pete Carroll has to love the ways of the college football compared to the NFL in terms of supplying believable information. After Mark Sanchez went down with dislocated knee cap, many wondered if he would be available for monster Ohio State conflict, let alone for the opener at Virginia. While Sanchez was chattering, saying we would be ready for Cavaliers, this was gently pushed to the side as macho football talk, with yet another player taking heroic stance. Coach Carroll was pretty mum on the subject, doling out less information on the Sanchez subject than a Bill Belichick daily press briefing.

When USC took the field at Charlottesville, Sanchez had more giddy-up than a racehorse making a stretch run. If became readily apparent why the junior signal caller wanted to take the field so bad, these Trojans are loaded. USC gained 558 yards of offense with a stable of running backs deeper than Calumet Farms in Kentucky. Four different backs, with Joe McKnight and CJ Gable being the more familiar names, galloped for 5.3 yards per carry on 41 attempts. The speed and craftiness of each runner was awesome, as was the holes they had to run thru. ONLY nine different receivers caught passes for USC, totaling 340 yards, giving new meaning to diversity on the Trojans campus.

The USC defense was everything that was expected; except for a few passes that Virginia completed that seemed almost surprising. In the end, it was clear, USC was not tested and Sanchez has the confident appearance of a team leader, in what is now an assembly line of succession General Motors could only dream about, with the next stellar quarterback emerging at Troy.

It is no wonder Carroll has become a favorite among sports bettors, sporting 77-14 record in Los Angeles, with 55-36 (60.4 percent) against the spread record in his eighth season. Since getting everything in order in his second year in 2002, Carroll’s teams are 27-2 straight up in non-conference games (includes bowls), with 21-8 ATS record. The Men of Troy are 22-2 SU and 18-6 ATS taking in ranked teams since halfway thru 2002 campaign.

Ohio State was sharp in opener and duller then Lindsey Lohan commenting on Republican VP Sarah Palin against Ohio U. at Columbus last week. Are roving friends of 3Daily Winners have seen Buckeyes practices and both games and are convinced this is the best, most complete Ohio State team of the Jim Tressel sleeveless sweater-era. Here is what separates this squad from a few of the vintage Buckeye squads of this decade.

The 2002 national championship team probably embodied Tressel more than any other he has had in Columbus. Thou talented, not over the top by any means compared to later versions. That team did what it had to win through preparation and never flinched, no matter the circumstances. Six of their wins were by seven points or less during the regular season and what is easy to forget is they were 11-point underdogs to Miami-FL in unforgettable championship overtime game.

The 2003 and 2005 had better talent as 22 starters, yet were not even close to showing the resolve of 2002 squad. The 2006 team was literally shocked by Florida’s speed and was out-classed by hungrier team that was playing better. Last year’s team was really one year ahead of schedule, in terms of maturity and understanding what it takes to be a champion. No question Tressel did a splendid job in reloading, however were not in the same true class as LSU.

One theme among the folks we spoke to that have followed and wagered on Ohio State (for and against keep in mind), is the positive cockiness needed to be a champion. How this team carries itself is more reminiscent of the Woody Hayes days and the best of John Cooper years, when Ohio State always believed they were the best team, even if the opponent was lucky enough to beat them. This 2008 team is reportedly a modern version, having the Tressel coolness and a certain detachment of arrogance.

Tressel can hang with Carroll record-wise at 75-16, but is a pauper comparatively against the spread at 46-38-1, 54.7 percent. Ohio State has taken a more gentlemanly approach in non-conference conflicts with 29-5 record (3 losses in bowl games), being a mere 17-16 ATS in those encounters. Tressel’s Buckeyes are 6-5 ATS as single digit underdogs since his second season.

This will be biggest September clash in years, even more so than the Texas/Ohio State games of a few years back. Both are as talented as any teams one will see this season. All the players on both teams are supremely confident, with only the complete status of running back Beanie Wells an uncertainty. USC opened as a 9.5-point home favorite and that number quickly jumped to 10.5 at most wagering outlets. The Total has been altered also, from opening at 46.5 to 44.

Coaching, along with the players, will have a huge implication in determining the outcome. If Ohio State’s front seven can contain USC running game, they make the Trojans more one-dimensional. That is not to say Sanchez can can’t win through having to throw the ball, however offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian prefers to have balanced offense. It was not by mistake, the Trojans showed numerous offensive formations and shifting into the second quarter against Virginia, before settling in on what they wanted to do. This was a message to Ohio State defense coaches to tell them to be prepared for anything. Even after just one game, it’s not a surprise to know the Trojans are 17-5 ATS after a week off in the regular season.

Ohio State was sleep-walking for 2 1/2 quarters against Ohio U in last game, yet still kept in close to the sweater vest, in not giving away too much for USC to look at. Senior Todd Boeckman will have to bring his thinking cap for this matchup. USC will try and funnel pressure up the gut, meaning Buckeyes coaches must be able to have outlets on either flank, to slow pass rush and blitzing. Boeckman will have to distinguish when USC overloads a side and the blitz comes from that direction, being able to use slot receiver or tight end into vacated spot. The Buckeyes are 12-4 ATS in non-conference regular season games versus BCS schools.

No matter what the polls say, the winner of this much anticipated encounter becomes the top team in the country based on public perception. USC is 10-2 ATS as favorite at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum on Carroll’s watch versus ranked teams, with Ohio State 2-1 ATS as road dog in opposite role. This should be special.