Week 6 of the NFL saw a return of low scoring football, with 10 of the 14 games played going Under the number. That was the first time since week 1 the majority of games had followed that path. For the season, the record stands at 47-40-1 Over. On the topic of totals, one aspect bookmakers are getting crushed in is the Monday night total. After the Giants and Browns affair, the number is 7-0 Over to start a new work week.Over the last four years betting against the bottom five teams in the Yards Per Point category has netted a winning percentage of 55 to 62 percent after week 3 of the season. In 2008, it has been completely the opposite, with these bottom feeders astonishing 9-1 ATS, the first three weeks. Based on the past, can’t say this trend will continue, however if Kansas City, St. Louis, Baltimore, Oakland or Minnesota make sense as potential plays this week, this might be one more reason to back them. Coincidently, all five are underdogs.
One of the most overlooked aspects of wagering on football is coaching. It’s not technical handicapping and not exactly like situational handicapping per se, since you can’t be sure when the light goes on for a coach and his staff. Two great examples were on prime time this past week. San Diego got off to another tough 0-2 start this season. No doubt injuries played a part. The Chargers flew by the Jets on a Monday night and beat Oakland with a sharp second half 28-18 to square record at 2-2.
San Diego traveled to Miami and Norv Turner and his offensive staff prepared a game plan of trying to run the ball down the throats of Miami, having determined they had a physical advantage to do so. On defense, the loss of Shawne Merriman had seen the Chargers return to a softer bend-but-don’t break approach. The Dolphins came into the game feeling spry after whipping New England and off a bye. Miami was the aggressor from the start and carried the game to San Diego, who quickly found out they were not going to have success running the ball and coach Turner was slow to react. The Chargers ended up losing 17-10 and were undermined by a poorly conceived game plan on both sides of the ball.
This past Sunday, Turner and his staff finally assembled a game plan that matched the situation, and better utilized the talents of the players on the team. New England might not have Tom Brady; however I don’t recall him taking a snap playing in the secondary. CB Delta O’Neal has played for a number of NFL teams for a reason, he’s adequate at best. The Chargers have big athletic receivers who can go get the ball. They attacked the Patriots from the opening play with the long pass and never relented. As John Madden pointed out, L.T. is not 100 percent and thus passing first, forced New England to not commit as many players to hang around the line of scrimmage, which gave the Bolts a better opportunity to run the ball.
Defensively, DC Ted Cottrell is known for playing tendencies of opponents, rather than attacking. In this game he understood the limitations of the Matt Cassel and attacked him. While Cottrell is obviously a smart man to stay employed in the NFL, he doesn’t always play to the players he has on hand. With or without Merriman, the Chargers players are more emotional lot and play their best when on the attack. He set up such a plan last week; watch to see if he does so in the coming weeks.
The Cleveland Browns were in the words of Tony Kornheiser, “A sexy pick to win the AFC North” and instead started 0-3. They limped past a skuzzy Cincinnati squad 20-12 and nearly benched quarterback Derek Anderson for being terrible. With two weeks to prepare for the Giants, Romeo Crennel and has coaching staff must have had an epiphany. The strength of the team is the offensive line and its receivers. Braylon Edwards had played dreadful, which undermined success, but like most prima-donna receivers in the NFL, he needs to be a focal point and has to have that confidence early in the game. Cleveland got the ball in his hands quickly and the offensive line took the challenge of going up against one of the best defensive fronts in football and ran for 144 yards along with providing superior pass blocking in what turned into a 35-14 rout.
The point is intelligent NFL coaches will devise aggressive game plans that utilize the strengths of their teams and attack the weaknesses of their opponents. It sounds like this is something they should do every week, yet as any football bettor or interested fan knows this is not the case. The players still have to play; nonetheless coaches have to place players in the best position for success.
Some might wonder about the other team making adjustments based on what they see on tape to counteract what an opponent had success at. That is a logical conclusion, which is exactly why the elite coaches come up with the right answers most of the time in a 16-game season and are paid handsomely to do so.
College Football Betting Thoughts
We are at the unofficial half way point of the college football season and this past week was a killer for two areas of college football teams from wagering perspective. Home teams that were favored by 10 or more points were abysmal 4-15-1 ATS, including five outright losses and Texas Tech holding on to win in overtime. On the season, home underdogs had been hovering around .500 against the spread. This past week they were sickly 6-14 ATS for a two week total of 11-25-3 against the spread. On the season home underdogs that have won outright, are 5-11 ATS in next game.
As opposed to what normally happens in the pro game, spread losses tend to snow ball in the college game. What we look for is teams off of exactly three spread losses. After another crummy 1-3-1 week, the season record on these squads in next game is 5-10-1 ATS, offering play against possibilities this week on Wisconsin, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Washington State, Washington, Southern Miss, Mid. Tenn. State and Colorado.
Though the timing was somewhat curious, Tommy Bowden being fired at Clemson does not come as a shock. Much like the cat with nine lives, Bowden had time and time again managed to survive disappointment from the Clemson faithful, with the Tigers rallying down the stretch. This year was different, as Clemson was the clear choice to conquer a winnable ACC. Their first game against Alabama taught us two things, how good the Crimson Tide really was and this Clemson team was not ready for prime time.
For most of Bowden’s tenure at Clemson, bettors rode the wave with the Tigers, play them when they’re hot and going the other way when they are not. The last straw was the Wake Forest loss, after a disappointing defeat to Maryland. A quality football team that believes in the coach and the staff comes out focused and wins that game. Instead, these Tigers yawned, with the message very clear the team wasn’t buying what Bowden was selling.
Remember when Oklahoma won the national championship in 2000? Those early years for Bob Stoops were defensive teams that popped opponents and let them know more was coming. Watching the Sooners against Texas, it was obvious in the first half, this team didn’t have that “pop” most top teams in the country have. Oklahoma made tackles just fine, but no gusto behind them. The best way to describe it is when you watch a minor bowl game between evenly matched teams and you end up thinking, these are two competent teams, you wonder how they ended up 7-5. Then on New Year’s Day, a matchup of two BCS teams takes place and you suddenly see the real difference. With how competitive the Big 12 is going to be the rest of the way, the Sooners are still very much in the hunt; nonetheless they will need a more physical presence to give themselves a chance.
On the topic of the Big 12, all those SEC snobs can stick your nose up to the rest of college football about your superiority, but I’m not backing you up this time. The Big 12 has better quarterbacks, enough speed and can play the power game. A few SEC know-it-alls who arrive at games to start tailgating on Thursday (actually I’m a little jealous about that idea) will point to the Texas and Oklahoma game as no defense being played, like they do in the South. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Florida hang on 51 on LSU? The overall quarterback play of the Big 12 is just better this season and I’ll rate the leagues as even.
Depending on when a bettor purchased Georgia against Tennessee, all three outcomes were possible. (Win, lose or push) If you are a Bulldogs fan or betting Georgia games with regularity, isn’t it shocking the number of bad (dumb) plays Mathew Stafford continues to make? Stafford had career day throwing for 310 yards against Tennessee, however made what looked liked two bad passes in the red zone costing the ‘Dogs a chance to bury Tennessee by 21 or more points. If this was the first time it had happened all year, I might have different opinion, yet watching him, he makes a couple of these decisions a game. Backing Georgia right now as favorite has risky feel.
Take this spread and shove it! That’s what Tommy Tuberville did at Auburn, sending offensive coordinator Tony Franklin away and about 110,000 and more Michigan football fans would like to do the same to Rich Rodriquez. Auburn is a mess and the timing could hardly be any worse for Tigers fans with Alabama a rising tide. With games still at Penn State and Ohio State, plus home to improving Michigan State, Rodriquez might become more famous for being the coach that engineered the Wolverines 33-year bowl streak coming to an end. Betting against these two offensive misfits is the only way to go today.
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