Green Bay Has Covered on the Road

After upending Minnesota in Week 1, Green Bay will try for another win on Monday night at the expense of New Orleans, which dropped a heartbreaker to those same Vikings on a Monday night four weeks later. With the NFC North still wide open, the Packers (5-5, 6-3-1 ATS) have hurt their chances by losing three games by three points or fewer. A classic example is head coach Mike McCarthy’s team dropping a tough overtime contest to Tennessee one week and following that by losing to Minnesota by a point when kicker Mason Crosby missed a long field goal late at the Metrodome.

Despite the pressure of taking the reins from Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers has settled in quite nicely with 2,351 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in his first season as a starter. Rodgers also has three rushing touchdowns and has thrown touchdown passes to seven different players, including five to receiver Greg Jennings.

Defensively, Green Bay lost a key cog in the linebacker corps when Nick Barnett went down with an ACL injury, leaving the middle linebacker spot to A.J. Hawk, who along with the secondary, have been stellar against the pass, ranking #3 in the NFL, allowing 176.5 yards a game, and shut down Chicago in last week’s 37-3 romp. Needless to say, the secondary will face a stern test from quarterback Drew Brees; however have a couple of angles in their favor. The Pack has covered seven straight in dome surroundings and is 15-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

A 30-20 win over lowly Kansas City saved the season for the New Orleans (6-4 ATS), who improved to 5-5. Unfortunately, capturing the NFC South crown is a pipedream, but head coach Sean Payton’s team feels a red-hot Brees could propel them to a wild-card spot.

When he is not yelling at tight end Jeremy Shockey, Brees has been lighting it up with a league-leading 3,251 passing yards and 18 touchdowns and should easily surpass the 4,423 yards he threw for a year ago. Another reason Brees could accomplish that feat is the return of wideout Marques Colston, who showed encouraging signs by snagging seven balls for 140 yards in the loss to Atlanta in Week 10.

The possible return of Reggie Bush from knee surgery is an added boost to a New Orleans rushing attack that averages only 91 yards a game. Granted, the Saints have been trailing in most games and have resorted to passing more, but power runners like Deuce McAllister (299 yards) and Pierre Thomas (238) have struggled in Bush’s absence. At least this season, the Saints have been marching home to victory more often with 3-1 SU and ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has New Orleans as jovial one-point home favorite, finally playing at the Superdome for the first time since Oct.12. Considering both teams have the ability to score points and have suspect defenses with weak elements, the total of 51.5 seems like a natural to go over, especially with these teams a combined 22-6 OVER after one or more straight victories. Nonetheless, there is a Totals system to consider- Play Under on any team like the Saints where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. The system is a slick 19-3 since 2004.

Green Bay covers if they protect Rodgers like they did last week against Chicago, not like they did versus Minnesota. If the offensive line blocks well enough for RB Ryan Grant to have success again, this opens up the passing game against Saints secondary that ranks 26th. The pass rush hasn't been as good as it was last season, but the front four has done a good job of deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage, which is important against Brees, who though talented, is mildly vertically challenged. Bat down a few passes to make New Orleans adjust pocket. The Green and Gold is 7-1 ATS in November.

New Orleans covers if they get pressure up the middle, since Rodgers has shown a tendency to hang onto the ball a little too long. The defensive backs have to tackle well and limit the number of gains over 10 yards. Get the running game going, testing what has been a vulnerable front seven for Green Bay. If Reggie Bush is truly ready, see how the Packers linebackers handle him is open areas.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any road team that plays outdoors versus a home team in a dome. This system is 29-14 ATS, 67.4 percent.