Washington has passed most of their previous tests, save for a final-second loss at home to the Rams in Week 6. But looking at St. Louis these days maybe that defeat isn't as bad as it originally looked. The Redskins steamrolled hapless-and still winless-Detroit, 25-17, and remains just behind the Giants in the NFC East.Maybe owner Daniel Snyder was onto something when he hired head coach Jim Zorn despite no prior experience as a front man. It helps having the NFL's leading rusher, Clinton Portis, who added 126 yards to his total (944) against the Lions, in the same huddle. Rather than the wide-open spaces he's become accustomed to in Zorn's West Coast offense, Portis may have to take more of a bullish approach against Pittsburgh who is 33-18 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play.
The Steelers, ranked No. 2 in the NFL against the run (71.6 yards per game, three touchdowns), have allowed just three runners in the past 73 games to crack 100 yards. Portis has rushed for more than 120 yards in five-straight games and averages 5.0 yards per carry; opposing backs are rushing for 2.9 YPC vs. Pittsburgh. Washington is 28-12 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game, including 2-0 against the spread this season.
Jason Campbell did complete 23 of 28 attempts for 328 yards against the Lions but can expect plenty more pressure in Pittsburgh. Much like the Giants did in Week 1, the Steelers are expected to bring the heat from all angles, and may be better at it than even the defending champs. Campbell has just three turnovers (all fumbles), but all have come within the last three games. Washington is 6-15-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards.
Campbell's counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger, hasn't yet clicked in offensive coordinator Bruce Arian's system and may have turned in his worst performance yet in a 21-14 loss to the Giants. He threw just one touchdown and four interceptions and absorbed five sacks. At least two of the sacks were because Roethlisberger held the ball too long, something the coaches are trying to get him to change. The Steelers 7-3 ATS off a loss.
Running back Willie Parker missed a fourth consecutive game with a knee injury, but Mewelde Moore, at one point the third-stringer, continues to prove his value and the running hasn’t fallen off as much as expected. Parker might be ready for this encounter.
Bookmaker.com has Washington as a 2.5-point choice with a total of 36.5. Pittsburgh is 17-6 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and the Skins are 21-9 UNDER after out-gaining opposition by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.
Pittsburgh covers if they stop Portis, which they well could do since they held the Giants to just over half their average last week. The Steelers have to get after Campbell and force him to make bad choices and create turnovers. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been solid all, year, contain Washington and they improve to 28-10 ATS playing against teams with 75 win percentage or higher.
Washington covers if they can prevent the Pittsburgh linebackers from blitzing Campbell silly. The Redskins defense has only forced eight turnovers on the year, Big Ben will present opportunities, and they must cash in and create shorter fields for the offense. Attack the Steelers guards on defense, since this is the area where they have has the most problems in pass protection. Start trouble in the middle and safeties could have free shots at Roethlisberger. Pitt is 3-7 ATS on the road at teams with winning records.
No pertinent system for Monday night, however teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.
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