Packers Underdogs in Windy (Frigid) City

Who would’ve guessed Green Bay’s defense would struggle more than its offense in its first season without Brett Favre since 1992? The Packers are on pace to allow more than 400 points for first time since 1986, and in their nine defeats this season they’ve yielded an average of 24.2 points per game.

While most Cheeseheads have moved on about the trade of Favre to the Jets, they can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for what has been a miserable 5-9 season. Rodgers has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards and 23 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. It all adds up to a quarterback rating better than 90, ranking him in the top 10 among those with at least 10 starts. He’s had eight multiple touchdown games and two multiple interception games. Green Bay comes into this contest having covered 12 of last 16 NFC North division contests.

But it takes one hand to count how many times both Rodgers, and his defense, clicked in the same game. One of those was Nov. 16 when Green Bay blew out Chicago, 37-3, at Lambeau Field, creating a three-way tie atop the NFC North along with Minnesota. Rodgers completed 23 of 30 attempts for 227 yards and hooked up with Greg Jennings and Donald Lee for touchdowns, and the Packers defense allowed only 234 yards and a second-quarter field goal. They even scored without Rodgers on the field, with defensive end Jason Hunter returning a Kyle Orton fumble 54 yards for a touchdown.

The Packers are 0-4 SU and ATS since that victory, and the Bears are 3-1 since the loss, with three covers. Chicago’s come-from-behind 27-24 overtime win over New Orleans at Soldier Field last Thursday night was clutch and kept alive its playoff hopes. After tying the game with two seconds left in regulation, Robbie Gould won it with a 35-yard field goal. At 8-6, head coach Lovie Smith’s team can tie Minnesota for the division lead with a win, but needs to win this week and next and have the Vikings lose to win the division crown. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more.

The biggest red flag for the Bears in 2008 has been their pass defense, which was also a problem area a year ago. Chicago has allowed 3,271 yards through the air and rank ahead of only Kansas City, San Diego, the New York Jets and Seattle in the category. This could be diminished since temperatures are expected to be brutally cold in the Windy City, making the ability to overcome the elements for each player a bigger story.

Bookmaker.com has Chicago has four-point favorites, down from opening six, with the total having plummeted like the temperature from 45 to 40. The Bears lead 89-80-6 and haven’t been swept by the Packers since 2003. Though the weather will be a factor, Green Bay is 11-2 OVER after three or more consecutive losses and the Bears are 17-4 OVER as a home favorite.

Green Bay covers if they can control the Chicago running attack, which can be a stretch for the 26th ranked run defense. If the Packers are to do anything defensively, they must limit the Bears rushing game. The Green Bay defense really needs to find out if they have any linebackers that can blitz, as their defensive backfield has been getting torched having to play man coverage for such extended periods. Besides at 5-9, why not try and at least spoil a rivals playoff chances. The Pack is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Chicago covers if their physical offensive line gets a push on the Green Bay defensive line. In the prior meeting, this didn’t happen. Assuredly coach Smith and the staff won’t make the decision to stop the Packers passing exclusively and got pushed around for 200 rushing yards like last time. Chicago has to stop the run first and see how Rodgers reacts in the bitter cold conditions on the road. The Bears are still in the playoff hunt, they must bring the emotion or they could fall to 5-12 ATS at Soldier Field against the Green and Gold.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on division favorites of seven or less points that have won two games consecutively. Over the last 19 years, this system is 26-8 ATS, 76.4 percent.