Growing up during the summer, one of the biggest thrills was the arrival of the ice cream man in the neighborhood. The most popular frozen treat was the bomb pop, a popsicle shaped like something ready to drop from a B-17 bomber. They were big and came in a number of flavors including sky blue, which nobody could ever figure out what sky blue tasted like, but eating something with an aqua tint was pretty cool when you were eight years old.Years later in high school, a friend, Hunter Leathers, asked if I wanted a summer job at Merritt Foods in Kansas City, KS. The owner, James Merritt, had invented and trademarked the bomb pop. I would be working at the only plant in the world that manufactured bomb pops! The job also came with the benefit of all you could eat for free!
The bomb pop syrup went into molds in a large wheel that slowly rotated. The bomb pops froze as the wheel turned. Towards the end of the rotation, an arm would come down injecting a stick into each bomb pop. For some reason, the last stick at the end of a row always went into the bomb pop crooked. My job was to sit there for eight hours a day straightening that last stick. I was a specialist at the factory, a “stick straightener”.
The NBA also has specialists. Some specialists are defensive stoppers, enforcers, or good ball handlers who can shoot free throws well late in the game. The specialist with the most influence on a game is the three-point specialist.
The three-pointer has seen a quantum leap in popularity these past ten years. To begin with, teams are putting up 36.5% more three-point attempts since the beginning of the 1998 season.
In the 1998-99 season, the league average was 13.16 three-point attempts per team in a game.
This season that average is 17.96 downtown shots going up by a team per game. Before you start thinking that part of the reason for the increase is the pace of the game has increased tremendously over the past ten seasons, be mindful that the number of overall field goal attempts in a game has gone from 78.2 to 79.9, an increase of 2.2%. Also, with the increase in attempts, the shooting percentage has improved significantly from 33.9% ten seasons ago to 36.6% this year. Has the players’ shooting improved or has the defense gotten worse over the past ten years? That’s a question for another day.
The gap between the worse three-point shooting team to the best in the league has narrowed measurably from 10.9% ten-seasons ago to just 7.3%. Interestingly enough, in the 1998-99
season the Philadelphia 76ers were the team clanging the most 3’s off of the rim, a paltry 26.4% average. Philly resides at the bottom this year at 32.6%.
Many of the better teams in the league this year are hitting a high accuracy in their bombs from downtown, 39% or better. These include the league leader, Orlando at 39.9%, and San Antonio, New Orleans, and Boston. Phoenix, Cleveland, and Portland are the next three from the top. Except for Phoenix at 57.1%, all of these teams are winning above 60% of their games.
In looking at the worst five teams in shooting the three, only one, Philadelphia, has a winning percentage above .350. The other four, Washington, LA Clippers, Memphis, and Minnesota all shoot 34% or worse on their three-pointers.
Those facts obviously raise the question of the influence on a team’s success in defending behind the arc. Are the bottom teams in the NBA also on the bottom in defensive ability against the three-pointer and visa versa? While the bottom five does include Golden State, Sacramento, and Washington again, a near .500 team, New Jersey, is down there along with a 60%+ squad, Portland. Four of the top five in defending the arc were all 60%+ winners, Orlando, Houston, Boston, and Cleveland, but it is interesting to see the number one defensive squad is the Chicago Bulls, a team several games below .500.
With the weight of importance of the three-pointer increasing over the past decade, how can we profit from this?
Since the beginning of the 2005 season, the team who made more three-pointers won straight-up 63.4% of the time while covering the point spread at a 61.8% rate. That makes sense.
However, if a team made more 3’s than their competitor in a game but the opponent shot a higher percentage on their three-pointers, the team who made more baskets but shot worse only won 41.9% of the games straight-up and covered just 38.1% of the time. Those games went over the lined total 55.3% of the time. The percentage of shots made has a larger influence than the number of 3’s a team drained. If the optimum happens and you make more 3’s and shoot a better percentage than your foe in a game, your winning percentage improves to 69.5% and your ATS mark is a sweet 68.5%.
It seems like common sense to anticipate a game between two poor shooting three-point squads, 33.0% or worse for their season-to-date average, to have a tendency to go Under the lined total. In reality, the exact opposite occurs. Such a game between two poor three-point shooting squads has gone Over the total 57.1% of the time since the start of the 2005 campaign. That mark can be improved to 61.5% going Over, 75-47, if the home team went Over the total in their previous game. One last final improvement to a 65.8% winning rate for playing the Over is if both teams have at least a day of rest from their last game played.And, if you think a game between two good shooting long-range clubs, 36.5% or better for the season, will be a good bet to go Over the lined total, you should think twice. There might be other reasons to bet the Over, but just because both teams can drain 3’s at a good rate isn’t enough as the Under actually happens in 53% of those matches.
A team having good success in their previous game from long-range has some good wagering advantages in their next contest. If a team made more than ten 3’s hitting over 50% of their attempts winning the game by more than ten points, they are 91-69 Over in their next game, 56.9%. We can bump that up to 63.8% if our team happens to be a home favorite in that next game. Instead of being a home fave, if our team is an away dog the Over still does well, 64.4%, and they also cover the point spread 60% of the time.
A similar situation with our team making more than 10 three-pointers at a rate over 50% in their previous game but lost that game, has done poorly in their next game, only winning 39.1% of the time and covering the spread just 41.7% of the time. Having both teams hitting 50%+ from deep with each squad sinking six or more 3’s has produced a poor next-game ATS rate of 36.2% for the loser of the previous game if he is a home favorite.
The Under is also a good play winning 60.4% of the time in those contests.Another example to remember is that a team who shoots over 50% on 3’s two games in a row only covers the point spread 41.3% of the time in their next game.Logic says that a team who does well from downtown in their previous game will have expectations of continued success hoisting shots deep from the perimeter. False expectations of being able to maintain that high of success level leads to failure more times than not. The influence of the three-point shot has increased over the years. The most successful teams are the ones who can both shoot it well and defend against it.
Jim Kruger fires from deep for Vegas Sports Authority.
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