If their was ever a golf event made for sports bettors to wager on, it is the WGC match play event in Marana, Ariz, about 30 minutes north of Tucson at the Ritz-Carlton GC at Dove Mountain. This brings the best 64 players together according to the world rankings and puts them in a format similar to the NCAA basketball tournament, with four brackets and every player seeded. What is different about this event is the match play format, head to head. As opposed college basketball, the number one seeds have lost in the first round. The difference between the best player in the world and No. 64 is not as great as the average person may think.The lowest rated player might get the putter going and birdie a number of holes, putting pressure on the favorite. Or the underdog could just plod along making pars and hit a stretch and win three holes in a row, essentially winning the match. Among the intriguing aspects of betting this five day tournament, there is no M.O. of a particular type of player that separates them. Tiger Woods has the best mental makeup to win six matches, but he’s also the most talented player in the world.
Match play brings out different aspects of golfers personalities compared to stroke play and certain events can really change the course of a match. The legendary Bobby Jones lamented facing a player scraping by. "When a man misses his drive, and misses his second shot and wins the hole with a birdie, it gets my goat," Jones said.
Tiger Woods return couldn’t be any more welcome to the PGA Tour, as nobody really took over the tour in Tiger’s absence. His return means better attendance at the events he plays and increased television viewership. Woods is a +475 favorite at Bookmaker.com to win, which he has to be in theory because of who he is. However, to ask anyone who has not played a competitive round of golf since June of last year, play 90 holes of golf (give or take depending on how the matches go) just to get to the 36-hole final, well even that seems like a challenge for Mr. Woods.
Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson are +1500, followed by Sergio Garcia at +1600 and Anthony Kim at +2000. My personal choice is Geoff Ogilvy at +2000, who won this event in 2006 and lost to Tiger last year. Even this selection comes with trepidation, since this is the first year they are playing at the new 7,849-yard Jack Nicklaus-designed layout, after playing across the street at the Gallery. The layout has four par fives, wide fairways and rambunctious greens with more undulation and turns than the local rattlesnakes.
Here are my first round wagers for Wednesday.
Retief Goosen -120 over Tim Clark
Rory Sabbatini -150 over Miguel Angel Jimenez
Soren Hanson +130 over Ernie Els
Dustin Johnson +110 over Steve Stricker
Mathew Googin +140 over Kenny Perry
Stuart Appleby -105 over Martin Kaymer
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