Baseball Series Betting- San Diego at Philadelphia

Baseball in April is a lot like a horse race going to the first turn. The favorites don’t normally charge out of the gate and long-shots will frequently have the lead as the ponies disappear around the first curve. This happens in baseball almost every year and no better way to make this point is to see the San Diego Padres tied for first place in the National League West. Everyone expected and still expects San Diego to be one of the weaker teams in the senior circuit; however as major league baseball heads into its second weekend, the Pads are part of the biggest stories to start the season.

Owner John Moores is in the middle of a nasty divorce and due to California community property laws, Moores will have to sell all or parts of the franchise. This leads to taking a bare-bones approach to running the franchise, as was witnessed last year when San Diego won 63 games. This makes the Padres a collection of retreads and young players who may or may not be major league material. That’s not to say San Diego has no talent, with All-Star Adrian Gonzalez at first base, hard-working David Eckstein at second and Brian Giles in right. Names less known are Jody Gerut in center, who is hitting almost .290, Chase Headley is over the .300 barrier with on-base percentage of .360 and catcher Nick Hundley has better numbers than Headley.

A bigger reason why San Diego has started so well is pitching. They are seventh in runs allowed at 3.8 per game, with teams hitting just .235 against them. A remade bullpen without Trevor Huffman has an ERA of 2.40 and is five for five in save chances. Though Jake Peavy is still likely to be traded (sources now have Philadelphia as strong contender), tonight’s starter Chris Young (2-0, 1.38) has acted like an ace, striking out 12 in 13 innings and allowing only two walks. Though the money line has fallen considerably; Young and the Pads are 6-0 as +150 or more underdogs.

Philadelphia has had to deal with many distractions, the unfortunate passing of legendary announcer Harry Kalas and the wonderment of what is up with tonight’s starter Cole Hamels (0-1, 17.18 ERA). Hamels insists his elbow and arm are fine, despite the loss of seven-mph on fastball in first start in Colorado. Hamels incurred a heavy workload in winning World Series and many believe it has taken its toll. Don’t count Hamels among those that believe and pitching coach Rich Dubee insists he’s just behind from not being able to throw enough in the spring. Oddsmakers still favor the Phillies at -168 and the left-hander and Philly are 14-1 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

This is will be a four-game series, which concludes on Monday, but as always the case in this situation; the first three games are how series wagers are determined. Last season the Phillies bullpen was as important a reason as any as to why they became baseball’s best. This group has not started as well in 2009, with a 4.97 ERA. What has been the bugaboo is surrendering seven home runs in 29 innings. The slimmed down Brett Myers (1-1, 5.54) was more effective in second start giving up only four hits over seven innings. Myers control has been improved, a little too good as it turns out. He’s struck out 12 with only two free passes, but six of the dozen hits he’s allowed have gone over the wall. Myers and the Phils are 23-6 against the NL West. San Diego counters with Shawn Hill (1-0, 3.60), who pitched fairly well in his Padres debut. Don’t expect great things from the right-hander as a starter, having not pitched more than 103 innings in five years. Watch the for line on game two, with Philadelphia coming into the series 22-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and 7-1 on Saturday’s.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

If the probable starting pitchers are correct, Game 3 might have a few runs scored. San Diego will start Walter Silva (0-0, 6.52), who hadn’t pitched as professional in the U.S. until he faced the Mets last Monday. Silva pitched well for four innings until tiring in the fifth and blew 5-1 lead. He has a good assortment of pitches, which is how he made the big club. Silva has to be right, since the Friars are 5-19 vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a game coming in the City of Brotherly Love. Chan Ho Park (0-0, 10.38) doesn’t have a long leash one would imagine and has to do better than allowing five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. At 35, Park should be a middle reliever, pitching for the Dodgers. In his career he has 2.96 ERA at Dodger Stadium and over 5.20 ERA everywhere else.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

The series finale has Kevin Correia (0-1, 4.09) taking on Jamie Moyer (1-1, 6.55).

Philadelphia comes into the series at .500 and Jimmy Rollins struggling at the dish batting .111. This is a chance for the Phillies to start making a little headway and building momentum. Though the pitching has been disheartening to start, San Diego is batting .236 as a team, which means they are beatable if you score against them. Taking this into consideration, have to play the Phils in series wager, despite the Pads hot start.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Philadelphia -300, San Diego +220

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 1-0

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