
Boston at Chicago 1:00E ABC
Reports out of the Windy City had the Bulls feeling pretty plucky about almost winning two games at the defending NBA champs place and with a couple of home wins, Chicago was thinking upset. Instead, Boston but the basketball equivalent of water-boarding on the Bulls and blew them away by halftime. Chicago did themselves in also with 22 turnovers. Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro said nerves weren’t a problem, but how else do you explain a team making 90 percent of free throws in the first two games, misses nine in the first half? Maybe the coach is right; it’s not nerves, its expectations. With more than 48 hours to prepare, Chicago is in advantageous spot since home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest are 54-15 ATS the last five years. For some reason, the Celtics are still three-point underdogs.
Cleveland at Detroit 3:30E ABC
If this was a MMA fight, they would have already called it. Though Detroit will say all the right things about playing possession by possession and trying to win quarters, in there hearts do they really want to put off the inevitable? The Pistons are .500 at home this season with cheerless 13-29 ATS record. They are on 0-6 SU and ATS run and 3-11 ATS at home after failing to cover the spread in two or more games this series. The final nail in the coffin is Cleveland is 15-1 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half this season. The Cavs are eight-point road favorites.
Orlando at Philadelphia 6:30E TNT
The Orlando Magic are quickly finding out they have flaws and more than most realized. They have blown double-digit second half leads in two games, winning once in the series and trailed by 17-points to come all the way back, only to be nipped with just seconds to play. Two more buzzer beaters and Philadelphia sends Orlando home for the summer most unexpectedly, but why?
Asked King Creole of Playbook.com why he thought Orlando has been less than magical. “I'm not surprised that they are struggling in this series. Orlando is historically a very POOR favorite in the NBA Playoffs (13-23-2 ATS in their history). That includes 1-5 ATS as playoff road favorites. And they're even worse when they have high aspirations. Orlando is 6-15-2 ATS in the playoffs when they have a current win/loss percentage of .666 or greater. When priced as a favorite of 11 or less points, they are 3-12 ATS.”
He went on to add, “The rims get 'tighter' in the NBA playoffs for teams who are so dependent on three-point shooting success, like the Magic. After hitting 38-percent in the regular season on three-point attempts, the numbers are down to only 31.1 percent so far in the post-season. In Game One, they shot only 27.8 percent (5 for 18). In Game Two, they shot only 26.2 percent (6 for 23).”
Bookmaker.com still has the Magic as four-point favorites with total of 191; however they are far from safe bet at 1-8 ATS record in last nine games.
Portland at Houston 9:00E TNT
This is quickly turning into a coach’s nightmare series. Both teams have had moments of utter brilliances, which were followed by foolhardy play; those watching could have laughed out loud like at a Chris Rock concert. Yao Ming has lateral movement of a battleship, yet Portland players keep taking the ball right to him. One trip the Blazers’ players set a perfect screen to free up dribble penetration and the trip down the floor, it’s a good thing NBA refs don’t call moving screens, because the attention to detail is forgotten. Portland has to put Game 3 behind them, which might not be that easy since they are 22-41 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog.
Somebody on the Houston coaching staff needs to let Aaron Brooks know he doesn’t HAVE to shoot the ball in every important situation. They might also want to remind the Rockets players that nothing bad will happen if they maintain defensive focus for four quarters. Houston continues to dominate Portland at home with 11-1 record (5-7 ATS) and they are 29-12 ATS after they failed to cover the spread this season. Oddsmakers have lowered Houston to 4-point favorites.
2 comments:
Your comment about Brooks shooting too much is a bit foolish. He is shooting over 60% for the series, including beyond the arc. Look at the stats.
I did look at the stats and Brooks is hitting 60 percent of 3-point shots and 55 percent overall. I think you are missing my point. He was 19 for 27 the first two games and made a number of big 3's to give Houston a chance to win Game 2. In Game 3, in my opinion, he fell in love with his own shot a bit too much (3-11) and needed to be a better distributor, especially in the second half. Thanks for raising the point, I and the readers appreciate it.
Doug
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