Royals up against Baseball System

The Kansas City Royals have taken last year’s end of the season and carried it over to a pretty good start in 2009 with 7-6 (+1.8 units) record. The offense hasn’t been overwhelming, ranked 21st, scoring 4.4 runs per game. However, the pitching has been quite good, allowing 3.5 RPG, which is second in the American League.

The Royals have a solid trio of starters in ace Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies, but beyond those three, the starting pitching drops off like a baseball thrown off a cliff. Last evening was a perfect example, as the much-traveled Sidney Ponson was battered for six runs and eight hits, surrendering four walks in three and third innings to Cleveland. To the Royals credit, they never gave up and scored six runs in the final two innings to fall just short in 8-7 defeat.

Yesterday, Kansas City recalled Brian Bannister from Triple-A Omaha. The 28-year old right-hander started 59 games for the Royals over the past two seasons but didn’t make the team in spring training. A spot was found for him when Doug Waechter was placed on the DL. Bannister will get the nod in Game 2 and has pitched well against the Indians with 3-1 record and 1.91 ERA in five career appearances.

Cleveland will start their ace Cliff Lee (1-2, 6.75 ERA, 2.000 WHIP), who looked more like himself in last outing, giving up one run over six innings against New York. Lee is the current Cy Young holder in the American League, after 22-3 season and has held a mastery over Kansas City. The left-hander is 12-4, with a 4.47 ERA versus the Royals in 19 starts. Though Lee’s earned run average is pedestrian against K.C., his presence and poor Royals pitching has him on the receiving end of 5.9 runs per start in his career.

Cleveland (5-9, -3.7) is attempting to overcome doleful 1-7 start and has won four of six thanks to potent offense. The Tribe is scoring 6.5 runs per game and has averaged eight per game in last seven outings. Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as -190 money line favorites and they are backed with a long running system that has delivered a boatload of winners.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing eight runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.

Over the last dozen years, this system is 210-52, 79.4 percent against the ML. The results have tended to be remarkably consistent with 32-8 (80 percent) mark over the last three years. The oddsmakers money line suggests the underdog should win about a third of the time and for the most part, these games haven’t even been close, with average score differential 2.4 runs per game.

Tonight, consider Cleveland with their ace on the hill, with the deck stacked in your favor.