Keeping track of the Numbers Game

Every now and again it is a good time to take stock of things around us. Though we feel everything is under control, sometimes our perceptions don’t deal with the facts and we go around thinking we have the right information, when we really don’t. Decided to take some time and do some digging and see what can be found in the three major sports that are playing presently.

NBA

Wagering on the playoffs tends to be unsettling for most sports bettors. Starting with you can watch virtually every game and just have so few contests to take into account for, it’s as easy as grabbing that one more piece of pizza, when you have already had one too many. It can be a quixotic crusade if one gets upside down or if things go well, a real confidence booster.

Home Favorites against the spread have been about as ordinary has the come with 24-25-1 ATS record, with the chalk 36-14 straight up. The totals have shown a modest lean to the OVER side with 28-22 mark.

Road Favorites are 7-3 and 5-4-1 ATS and have played UNDER in eight of 10 meetings, including 6-0 UNDER in the Eastern Conference.

NHL

As usual, home ice is not especially important in the Stanley Cup playoffs, particularly early. The difference in talent between a high seed and low seed is not as dramatic as what you will find in professional basketball. Overall, home favorites are 29-21, with teams in the Western Conference doing a better job at 15-8.

Because postseason hockey is less free-wheeling, the UNDER is often a solid play and again has been in 2009 with 26-19-5 record.

Big home favorites (-200 or higher) have shown a real division by conferences thus far. East home faves are 4-0 and 3-1 OVER, while out West, they are losing proposition at 4-3 and are 5-1-1 UNDER.

Road favorites are 9-6 and the totals have been down the middle in these contests with 5-5-5 showing.

MLB

Toronto and the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the best teams in respective leagues to this point and winning wagers. The Blue Jays are 22-12, +9.4 units and the Dodgers are 22-11, +8.8 units. These teams are not flukes either, with Toronto +50 run differential and L.A. +57, each easily the best in their leagues.

In trying to spot frauds or clubs on the rise, its noteworthy the New York Yankees have allowed the most runs in baseball at 6.2 per game, including seven or more in 12 different games.

If Oakland can find offense, they might make large improvement. The A’s are only -10 run differential and are third in the American League in runs allowed at 131. The bullpen has been tremendous with 2.82 ERA, however scoring only 4.17 runs a game leaves at 11-18. They have been particularly vulnerable against left-hand starters with 3-11 mark.

Maybe the numbers will even out later, but Colorado is 12-18, despite a +3 run difference. The Rockies have been bitten by the one run bug, with 1-8 record in close encounters thus far in 2009.

If you don’t have MLB.TV, you are missing something as a sports bettor. Zack Greinke suffered his first loss of the season at the Big A in Anaheim Saturday, losing 1-0 to Joe Saunders and the Angels. Greinke went into that game just the third pitcher in baseball history to start 6-0 with ERA under 0.50 (Fernando Valenzuela and Walter Johnson the others). Though the 25-year old didn’t have his best stuff of the season, he allowed four hits over eight innings, with five strikeouts and no walks. Not giving up a free pass was particularly impressive, as he went to three balls with a number of Angels hitters.

Saunders was even more outstanding, yielding no runs on five hits, with six K’s and one walk in complete game shutout.

Greinke gave up double to Gary Mathews Jr. and two sacrifices later, Saunders had all the runs he needed in snappy 2:05 of old school baseball that was far from dull despite the score.