The Texas Rangers maintain their lead in the American League West and to stay in the same spot, they will have to whether one of the roughest periods on the schedule. The Rangers just lost two out of three to the Yankees and are spending three days in New England to take on Boston, before heading home to play four with Toronto and a series next weekend against currently the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers.Texas (31-22, +10.7 units) is going to have to do this without one of its big sluggers, Josh Hamilton. He was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with a sports hernia and could miss up to two months or more if it requires surgery. Hamilton is currently resting and taking anti-flammatory medications in the hope he will be able to return in a more normal fashion from the DL. The talented centerfielder was not having a 130-rbi year like last season; nevertheless he’s an important cog in the Texas lineup and will be missed.
The Rangers arrive in Boston with 49-26 record having lost two of their last three games; however Fenway Park gives them the chills. Texas has lost eight in a row and nine of 11 at the venerable ball yard and will send Kevin Millwood (4-4, 3.23 ERA) to try his luck. Millwood came into camp in the best shape in years and has been more productive than wins and losses indicate. He is 10th in the AL in ERA and is 3-1 lifetime at Fenway. DiamondSportsbook.com has Texas as +125 underdog to Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) and Boston.
The Red Sox (32-22, +4.4 units) are riding four-game winning streak and are 17-6 at home this season. With the total listed Ov10, that would seem to favor Boston who is 30-6 on home turf when the number is 10 or higher. Conversely, Millwood and the Rangers are 5-17 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
Manager Terry Francona’s club feels pretty confident coming into this series. They had just completed 6-4 road trip and swept division leader Detroit, which gave them a tie atop the AL East with New York. This does not suggest everything is well in Red Sox nation. David Ortiz continues to hit about 30 or more pounds below his weight, with .187 batting average and will have his eyes tested. Kevin Youkilis was stepped on at first base, making him day to day for this series with bad calf. What has saved the Red Sox is starting pitching. As this weekend series begins, the Boston starters have 2.01 ERA in last five contests and when backed up with bullpen that has Major League best 2.86 earned run average, if the Red Sox could score just four runs, they will be difficult to beat.
The BoSox are 18-3 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season and will start Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65). The left-hander has been inconsistent, but is coming off career-high 12 strikeouts in his last start, a win over Toronto. Over six innings, Lester allowed one run on three hits and he and his teammates are 23-5 at Fenway.
Texas will counter with Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33). The 23-year old was brought up from the minors when injuries hit the Rangers starting staff. Holland physically matured a year ago and solved a few mechanical issues and throws true Texas heat. On the radar gun, mid-90’s is common and upper 90’s is not unusual. His future lies in ability to develop curveball that could make his power starter or power reliever. He’s made two starts and is 0-1 with 6.75 ERA and Boston is 12-4 against lefties. The Rangers on the other hand are 19-39 vs. southpaws.
Game 2 Edge: Boston
The final game of the series will have two veteran pitchers, trying to find their way in 2009. Vincente Padilla (3-3, 5.57) thought he was on his way in May with three razor-sharp performances, surrendering five runs total, in picking up three victories. He was then felled by strained right shoulder, which landed him on DL and in his first start back was clocked for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. Maybe the light of day will help, since Padilla and Texas are 4-1 when he pitches day ball, with matching record as underdog this season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-3, 7.17) finally broke into the win column in his last outing, allowing one run over five innings against Detroit. The right-hander walked three and struck out six. Matsuzaka has been taxing on the bullpen, having pitched into the sixth inning just once in 2009. Based on both pitchers current form, this could be high scoring affair, though the oddsmakers have taken into account both teams daytime activities and they are combined 20-18-1 UNDER when playing in the afternoon.
Game 3 Edge: Texas
Thus far, the picks have been lousy at best and twice talked myself out of the right plays. This won’t happen this week. Boston owns Texas at Fenway and has favorable pitching matchups in first two games and is playing with more confidence. The Red Sox can mash with Texas and is 10-2 vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game this year. Boston is the play.
DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Texas +190, Boston -250
3DW Pick: Boston
2009 Record – 2-5
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