Why are these baseball teams playing Under?

There has been more of movement the last several years for baseball bettors to play totals. It is easy to trace the origins as totals today have price tags of -135 or -140 on a particular number, compared to mostly -120 at the highest point before a number change not that many seasons ago. (Ex. - Under 9 (-120) moves down to 8.5) With betting lines like the stock market, what creates this kind of volatility? Let’s examine the top four teams playing UNDER the total in 2009.

The Texas Rangers are 40-23-2 UNDER, which is in and of itself a shocker. Texas has long been known as offensive club playing in run-friendly Rangers Park at Arlington. Along with this, the Rangers pitchers have not exactly cast a spell over the opposition, as they have given up about the same number of runs as the offense generates. Their have been changes within the organization since Nolan Ryan became President and they are apparent.

The offense still scores runs, averaging five a game, which is down a little, with the offense slumping a bit lately. The biggest change comes in the pitching. It is doesn’t seem plausible Texas will lead the American League or baseball for that matter in earned run average playing half their games in Arlington bandbox. That doesn’t mean they can’t improve and have they ever.

After finishing 30th in baseball with 5.37 ERA in 2008, the Rangers pitchers (really have a different look about them) have improved nearly a whole run to 4.42, ranking 18th overall. (Thru 6-17-09) The most noticeable difference has been throwing strikes. This season, Rangers’ pitchers are 11th in walks allowed, last year they were 24th. Texas also has legitimate ways to close out games, as closers Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson have led the way in the Rangers converting 82.6 percent of save attempts. (19 of 23)

The feel is oddsmakers have been slow to adjust and the wagering public has not gotten on board with Texas playing this way.

The Chicago White Sox are another team that has played UNDER with 39-26-1 mark. The reasoning for the South Siders to be playing this style of ball is not scoring as many runs, averaging 4.1 per game. The White Sox are at their best when they are hitting the long ball. That was true in 2005 when they won the World Series, finishing fifth in the baseball with 200 home runs and last year when they made the playoffs, leading the Major Leagues with 235. At this juncture they are strictly middle-of-the-road ranked 14th overall.

The big boppers are getting older like Jim Thome and Carlos Quentin has been injured and not the same player as last season. One can not overlook the weather factor, with many cold and cloudy days in Chi-town, with the wind blowing in more frequently off of Lake Michigan.
Seattle is 39-25-2 UNDER, with their everyday lineup performing much like Starbucks stock. The Mariners are at the bottom of the barrel in runs scored at 3.7 per game. They have been among the worst on baseball all year for on-base percentage and are next to last in drawing walks.

Another component is the pitching the M’s have delivered. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have a lower team ERA than Seattle, who has nine pitchers that have seen action in at least nine games with earned run average below four.

The Detroit Tigers are another club on the UNDER train, with 38-27-1 record. The Tigers situation is a little more difficult to understand until to bring out the shovel and start digging around. Detroit is a respectable 13th in runs scored at 4.8 per outing and they allow 4.5 per game. What isn’t so readily seen unless you follow this Motown team, is they have scored three runs or less 29 times, which is over 40 percent of the time they have played in 2009. This inconsistent offense has lent itself to falling below the total.

Manager Jim Leyland has three dependable starters in Jason Verlander, Edwin Jackson and rookie Rick Porcello, who have 3.71 ERA’s or less. Detroit at this writing is tied for the lead in shutouts in baseball with seven.

Part of finding winners on totals is understanding why teams play the way they do and trying to beat the oddsmakers to the punch.