The interpretation of how baseball was to be viewed differently came about with Bill James book “Baseball Abstract”. He and his fellow scribes developed an illuminating way to no longer take a batting average at face value, rather look inside the numbers to understand what it really might means. The term “sabermetric” became part of the language of baseball in the late 1980’s and still is widely renowned in today’s world.This has lead to other methods of interpreting statistics, opening the door for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com to name a couple. This in-depth type of analysis of numbers has benefited fans and those who love to wager on baseball. For those seeking opportunity to place futures wagers on baseball, being able to see halfway thru the season eliminates some of the guess work that appeared cumbersome back in March.
Today you have a track record to follow and an inkling what might occur in the last 81 games of the baseball season. The oddsmakers do also, and a Detroit Tigers preseason wager of Over/Under 81.5 wins at DiamondSportsbook.com looks safer today then it did before the season started. The Tigers price of -140 to win the Central Division appears to be a much more palatable bet than possibly money laid down on Cleveland before opening day to conquer the division.
One element of James’ work that is as fresh today as it was when he first brought up the topics is the runs scored vs. runs allowed aspect of the game. If you score more runs then your opponent, you can not lose. If you score a great deal more runs then the opposition, then you might have a dominate team. From the wagering standpoint, the value in this information is which teams are playing to their potential, which are playing above their potential and which are playing below. The last two elements are especially valuable, since if a team or teams continue on the same path, ultimately, they should reach their water mark and play accordingly.
Our goal in making long and short term wagers for baseball is to ensure equal representation of all teams. Every Major League squad had to play 81 games or half the schedule. This presents a balanced look at all the teams.
How this exercise works is to multiply the number of runs scored and square it, followed by doing the same with number of runs allowed. We’ll use Los Angeles Dodgers as the example.
Dodgers runs scored – 391
Dodgers runs allowed – 307
391 x 391 = 152881
307 x 307 = 94249
Add the two numbers together and divide the runs scored into the total to achieve a percentage.
152881 + 94249 = 247130
152881 divided by 247130 = .618
Now take the number 81 (half the season) and multiply by .618, this gives you a total of 50.05. What this means is the Dodgers should have a record of 50-31, based on runs scored and allowed and their actual record was 51-30, thus right on schedule.
Any difference greater than three games means something is occurring that needs to be understood. Typically, bullpen production or lack of it is the biggest culprit in terms of wins and losses. Below is the complete list showing each team’s actual record and record based on RS/RA methodology.
American League (actual – projected)
Boston 49-32 48-33
NY Yankees 48-33 46-35
Tampa Bay 44-37 49-32
Toronto 42-39 44-37
Baltimore 36-45 34-47
Detroit 44-37 42-39
Chicago WS 42-39 41-40
Minnesota 41-40 43-38
Kansas City 35-46 33-48
Cleveland 32-49 38-43
L.A. Angels 46-35 43-38
Texas 45-36 43-38
Seattle 42-39 38-43
Oakland 35-46 36-45
AL Observations – The most notable team to standout is the defending American League champ Tampa Bay Rays. The Tampa Bay bullpen did have early issues, however has settled down. The offense will go thru streaks of inconsistency, with as many free swingers as they have. If the Rays improve on the road (18-26) in the second half of the season and do a better job in one-run games (9-14), they could really make the AL East a three team race down the stretch.
The AL Central will be about what team puts it together and can play solid baseball for extended period of time. From wagering aspect, Cleveland looks to hold value, only if their pitching staff does a better job holding the opposition. A collection of mediocre starting pitchers is made worse with bullpen ERA of 5.13 and 50% save percentage. If the Indians can muster even average pitching numbers out of its staff, they will be more of a Play On team in last half of the year.
It looks like the Angels and Texas will battle for the AL West crown. Normally, when a team overachieves like Los Angeles has, it’s due to the bullpen. This couldn’t be any further from the truth concerning the Angels when reviewing season numbers. However, the group has started to stabilize, lowering ERA by almost a run over the last three weeks and kept them in games, with Halos No.1 hitting team in baseball (up to 4th in runs scored) doing the rest.
National League (actual – projected)
Philadelphia 43-38 44-37
Florida 41-40 38-43
N.Y. Mets 39-42 38-43
Atlanta 39-42 39-42
Washington 24-57 30-51
St. Louis 43-38 42-39
Milwaukee 43-38 42-39
Chic. Cubs 41-40 41-40
Cincinnati 41-40 36-45
Houston 40-41 37-44
Pittsburgh 37-44 41-40
L.A. Dodgers 51-30 50-31
San Francisco 44-37 45-36
Colorado 42-39 43-38
San Diego 35-46 30-41
Arizona 32-49 36-45
NL Observations – Right now the NL East is the Phillies to lose, with more hangers-on than true contenders. Florida has overachieved largely due to 14-9 record in one-run games and lambasting left-hand pitching with 21-9 mark. The Florida bullpen has a real oddity in the works and chances are these numbers will come towards the center, with uncertain impact to be determined, yet whacky nonetheless. On the road, the Marlins pen-sters have 2.26 ERA with 8-1 save record. At Landshark Stadium, these hurlers are a mess with 5.22 ERA and 10 blown saves in 22 chances.
Question- Who has the better offense, Atlanta or Washington? After half the season, each team had scored 344 total runs. The difference is the Nationals pitchers have surrendered 93 more runs. The Nats have mostly kiddie-corps for starters and will see fair share of good and bad outings. However, the bullpen, well yuck is one word that won’t offend anyone and they are the reason Washington is baseball’s biggest underachievers. A woebegone 7-29 record, with ERA over 5.5 and more blown saves than a Capitols goalie has in a month (16 in 30 attempts), leads the Nationals down a cheerless path. If they can dig up any relief help (cadavers welcome), Washington will have Play On possibilities when hitters are on hot streaks.
The NL Central doesn’t offer much insight who will eventually win the division; nevertheless, Cincinnati could be heading south. Thanks to non-starters posting imposing 3.54 ERA and closer Francisco Cordero leading efforts to finish off games with 81.5 save percentage (team’s record), the Reds are playing better than they should. This team is worth watching, with Play Against potential. Pittsburgh has underachieved, hard to consider that really newsworthy.
The Giants might be the biggest surprise of all 30 teams that take the diamond daily; however the numbers back them up as not being flukes. They have been extremely fortunate to use virtually the minimum of starters, until Randy Johnson recently became sidelined. Keep a weary eye on San Fran. The Padres were supposed to have a fowl smell and chances are this will happen by all indicators in the second half. With no offense beyond Adrian Gonzalez and pitchers certain to wear down, it is time to play the Chubby Checker song “Limbo Rock” and wonder how low can San Diego go.
Arizona should be better and will have moments throughout the second half of the season, if offensive can score runs. Difficult to be demonstrative about a team looking to move starting pitchers to contenders.
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