Looking back at Preseason MLB Futures Wagers

Back in March, one of my assignments was to go cover the strengths and weakness of each Major League Baseball team and make a prediction on how each club would likely measure up against the season totals set by the oddsmakers. With the baseball season roughly 54 percent completed, thought I would look back and see how I preformed four months ago and how I might end up when the final results are officially in.

National League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Philadelphia (Un88 – projected 90 wins)

The Phillies finally started to play well at Citizens Bank Park and are up to 22-23 record, having won nine of last 10. If the bullpen continues to improve and National League’s best offense keeps firing, playing in mediocre division, Philly should comfortably surpass 88 wins.

Florida (Ov75 – projected 83 wins)

Though the Marlins are -12 in runs scored/runs allowed, their starting pitching is expected to continue to improve, making me look I made the right choice.

Atlanta (84.5 No Call – projected 79 wins)

All the numbers prove this is .500 club and nothing really shows Atlanta should be any different the rest of the way. Might have overestimated the Braves slightly.

N.Y. York Mets (Ov89 – projected 78 wins)

Injuries to several starters have made the Mets a pedestrian offensive club. Beyond Johan Santana, unreliable starters pitch in rotation and bullpen allows too many keys hits. New York seldom rises to the occasion, as 16-25 record acknowledges as an underdog. Missed badly.

Washington (Un72.5 – projected 48 wins)

Firing the manager doesn’t change the players. The Nationals have too many young starting pitchers, deplorable bullpen and not enough every day players that care, all leading to another Washington failure. About as easy as it gets on this call.

St. Louis (Ov83.5 – projected 87 wins)

Called for the Cardinals to compete for division crown and they have been the best team in the NL Central thus far. They are on schedule to go Over the number and if Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick find batting stroke, St. Louis should win 90 games.

Milwaukee (Ov81.5 – projected 83 wins)

I thought the Brewers were barely above .500 club and they have proven me correct thus far. Milwaukee lacks enough starting pitchers that could send the team on seven or eight game winning streak or play well over extended period, taking 15 of 20 contests for example. For the most part, the Crew wins when favored (28-19) and lose when expected (17-24 as underdogs).

Chicago Cubs (Ov92.5 – projected 81 wins)

As correct as I was about Washington, like everyone, missed the Cubs by a magnificent Michigan Mile. Offense has been horrendous, ranking 14th in the National League in run production at 4.1 per game. Inconsistent starting pitching and injuries, means the Chicago would have to go 50-26 the rest of the way to surpass total. In the words of Al Borland, “I don’t think so Tim.”

Houston (O73.5 – projected 81 wins)

Despite having more retreads in starting staff than a used car lot, the Astros have overachieved thus far. Nonetheless, staring at -30 in RS/RA means this isn’t put to bed yet.

Cincinnati (78.5 No call– projected 78 wins)

Cincinnati has played as presumed and if anything could go Under in the second half. Only two NL teams have worse RS/RA allowed figures.

Pittsburgh (Ov69 – projected 70 wins)

Thought the Pirates might climb to 71 or 72 wins and gave them waffling approval months ago. Unless they remain snake-bit in one run games (5-14), could have a winner here.

L.A. Dodgers (Ov85 – projected 103 wins)

The Dodgers figured to be better than last season, but on pace to win over 100 games, nobody saw that coming. The ability to dominate division foes (30-12) makes this easy winner.

San Francisco (Un79.5 – projected 90 wins)

The Giants pitching was to be their calling card in 2009 and has it ever. The wild card leader at the moment, San Francisco is first in fewest runs allowed (3.7) and strikeouts (7.9 PG) and second in hits allowed (7.9 PG) and batting average (.239). Still weary of offense holding up in late August and September, yet have to say I blew this one.

Colorado (Ov76.5 – projected 86 wins)

The Rockies are making me look smart, in their now typical fashion, closing 28-9 before the All-Star break. One aspect nobody counted on was Jason Marquis leading the senior circuit with 11 wins at this point.

Arizona (86 No call – projected 69 wins)

Though I had no real thoughts on the Diamondbacks, misjudged how badly this team can play. This club lacks focus and true determination. Playing better the rest of the way would not be a shocker, however the only way they get 86 wins is taking whole squad to Arizona Fall Instructional League and pick up wins there.

San Diego (Un71 – projected 66 wins)

Never wavered in my belief that San Diego is the least talented team in baseball, even after 9-3 start. The Padres are proving to be what they are, awful.

American League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Boston (Un94.5 – projected 99 wins)

The Red Sox are putting together another superb season, with first-class offense, good starting pitching and a deep and varied bullpen with lots of answers. Thought this would be really solid team, but not at this pace.

N.Y. Yankees (Ov94.5 – projected 93 wins)

New York bumbled early and have bounced back to play superior baseball, if you disregard another lost trip in Anaheim. Expect this total to come down to last few days of the season.

Tampa Bay (Un88.5 – projected 87 wins)

Really believed the Rays would to come back to earth after unforeseen 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay is in wild card contention at the minimum, how they finish on the road (18-26 presently) will go a long way in determining final results. They will not have the benefit of playing the NL East any longer, whom they were 12-3 against.

Toronto (Un72 – projected 79 wins)

Though this prediction appears to be a loser, if Roy Halladay is traded soon, have to think this still could be good, with 35 of the Blue Jays remaining 62 games against Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

Baltimore (Un78.5 – projected 73 wins)

The Orioles do have some positives, with young talent starting to emerge in spots. Nevertheless, too challenging a division has the Birds falling short.

Detroit (Ov81.5 – projected 89 wins)

Detroit made too many wise decisions in the off-season not to be better than last year. With improved defense, a potent batting order and better than presumed bullpen, this is the team to beat in AL Central.

Chic. White Sox (Ov77.5 – projected 83 wins)

The peripheral numbers suggest nothing more than a .500 team and have to agree. This is still accurate enough to project a correct prognostication for the White Sox.

Minnesota (Ov83.5 – projected 82 wins)

You never count Minnesota out until they are dead. Manager Ron Gardenhire is one of the best and the Twins +29 in runs RS/RA suggests they could well compete with Detroit (+32) down the stretch and go Over the total.

Kansas City (Un76.5 – projected 68 wins)

The Royals higher expectations have met resistance, as sorry offense that is 29th in runs scored, wastes too many good outings by starting pitchers, who feel compelled to be almost perfect to win.

Cleveland (Ov85.5 – projected 64 wins)

Having seen Cleveland a few times in spring training, I really believed the Indians had enough offense to overcome below average staff. Could not have been more wrong than Washington (past and present), believing stimulus packages are solution to fixing economy.

L.A. Angels (Ov88.5 – projected 92 wins)

Even with the preseason injuries, who would have thought journeyman Matt Palmer would have more wins as starting pitcher (7), than John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar (5) combined and the Angels would be on pace to win 92 games at break. Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins and Torii Hunter have kept Los Angeles busy on the base paths with top hitting team and second in runs scored.

Texas (Ov74 – projected 89 wins)

The Rangers can still hit, averaging 4.9 runs per game, but it has been the pitching that has turned Texas into division and wild card contender. After years of having pathetic pitching, the Rangers are middle of the pack in runs surrendered at 4.6 per game, thanks to off-season regiment and organizational influence. Spotted preseason banter and jumped on board.

Seattle (Un73 – projected 85 wins)

Is it possible the Mariners are really fifth in runs given up? I can not see this holding up, especially with 25th ranked offense. Seattle is 21-13 in one run games, which has kept the Mariners afloat.

Oakland (Un82.5 – projected 70 wins)

“Moneyball” is about as relevant as the Stone Temple Pilots these days, with the Athletics having more “For Sale” signs than a neighborhood full of foreclosures.