Reds with backs to wall, up against Rugged System

The Cincinnati Reds are fading faster than a budget surplus at any city across the United States. The Reds have lost 17 of last 27 games to tumble into fifth place in the National League Central. In fact, with there 44-49 record (-2.3 units), Pittsburgh can actually see an opportunity of climbing out of the cellar. Just how valueless has Cincinnati become, only San Diego and Washington have a worse runs scored-runs allowed deficit (-61) in the senior circuit.

The Reds problems are scattered like tornado going thru a neighborhood. Offensively, Cincinnati has a “full house” of defective numbers. The Reds rank 14th in the National League in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Those numbers are coupled with ranking 13th in total bases and slugging percentage. No wonder Cincy has lost six of last eight against teams with winning record.

The pitching numbers though better, are not exactly inspiring. Cincinnati ranks 9th in ERA at 4.27. They concede too many walks, ranked 11th and don’t earn many easy outs, positioned 12th in strikeouts. The Reds are tied for 12th in quality starts with 45 on the season. Fortunately they have been able to win when leading late with 82.1 percent save percentage.

Bronson Arroyo (10-8, 5.07, 1.454) is having another Six Flags seasons, going up and down. At the present time he’s in the zone, not allowing a run in last two starts over 16 innings and has posted 2.14 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. “I’m a roller coaster out there,” Arroyo told the Reds’ official Web site. “Right now, I’m going good. I’ll take every zero on the board I can get. The more you go out there like that, you feel confident. … You just try to ride the wave.” (Dude, were with you man)

Cincinnati is trying to not to be swept by the Dodgers (60-34, +19.6), who are 32-15 at home and 42-23 against right-hand starters.

Chad Billingsley (9-5, 3.76, 1.283) has been the Los Angeles ace, but not of late. Billingsley has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 11 runs in 6 2/3 innings. He’ll hope to find an early rhythm and save a bullpen that has done phenomenal work with 3.21 ERA and 1.238 WHIP.
This all leads to Bookmaker.com making L.A. a -200 money line favorite with a total Ov8 and the Reds being in unfit area.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a solid bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less ), with a scalding starting pitcher sporting ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

Over the last five seasons, this system is sizzling 54-11, 83.1 percent. The Reds are 8-21 as +150 to +200 underdogs and unimaginable 50-100 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base. The Dodgers have won 52 of last 75 games at Dodger Stadium and are 8-1 in Billingsley’s last nine starts against teams with losing record.

If the money line makes one feel a bit uncomfortable backing the Dodgers, the average score differential of this superb system is 2.1 runs, adding the run line as potential wager. One more aspect to consider, the Reds have lost eight in a row at the home of the Dodgers.