System Play has Nats in nasty spot

The Washington Nationals are like the dimmest bulb on a set of outdoor lights, they standout for not shining brightly. While the Nationals have a comfortable lead as the worst team in baseball with 43-76 record (-24.1 units), they do deserve props for playing like paid professionals and not throwing in the towel. Even with last night’s loss, Washington has won eight of 12, thanks to a potent offense that has average 6.6 runs per game, compared to season average of 4.5 runs per contest.

In spite of playing better baseball, the Nationals have earned their stripes as the worst team in the game. Washington has the highest earned run average in the National League at 4.98. When the starting pitchers fail, which is often the case, a collection of less than desirable relievers take their place, with an even worse ERA (5.07). Washington’s non-starters have brought little relief as 17-33 record proves and the recent spike in run production has helped the closers get over the .500 mark (.533) since the first week of the season.

The Nats were 4-3 losers to Colorado last night in Game 1 of the series and will face the ace of the Rockies staff, Jason Marquis (13-8, 3.55 ERA). The veteran right-hander has embraced pitching for Colorado and has spearheaded a staff which has contributed mightily to the Rockies leading the wild card race in the senior circuit, while within striking distance of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

Colorado (66-53, +10.6 units) is giving no indication of fading away, winning seven of last 11 and continuing to play surprisingly well on the road with 34-30 record, despite a team batting average of .238.

Colorado is 30-14 (+21.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season and will face starter Collin Balester (1-2, 6.00), who has been allowing the long ball early and often. The rookie right-hander has surrendered three homers and five runs in each of his last two outings. Washington comes into this contest 13-34 revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last two seasons.

If this doesn’t sound like a great situation for Washington, it’s not and Colorado is a -160 money line favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com. Here is the situation the Nationals face tonight.

Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are ordinary offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs per game, against a good NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less.

This system has been a reliable winner for a dozen years at 52-14, 78.8 percent. For the most part, these games have not been close, opening the door for potential run line action, with a score differential 2.6 runs. Take a closer look at this contest, the odds lineup in the bettor’s favor on the road favorite.