Wagering on the Numbers Game

In order to win at sports betting, you have to be able to identity situations quickly. Most people assume every oddsmaker knows every aspect of a certain game, which talking with professional sports bettors just isn’t true. Most regular bettors have no idea the wealth of information available to them and this is where we can come in and help also.

It’s nearly impossible to make sound judgments about the NFL Preseason football; however that doesn’t take away from the enjoyment of considering the possibilities. After two weeks, favorites are 23-10 SU and 17-14-2 against the spread. Lines moves on side action of 1.5 or more points towards a particular team are 6-3 ATS.

The oddmakers have been right on the nose breaking down totals, with the OVER 17-16. What is interesting to note is totals that settled at 34.5 points or higher are 13-8 UNDER thus far. That means totals of 34 or fewer points are outstanding 9-3 OVER. Totals moves of two points or more in either direction are putrid 2-8 following the number.

Annually in the preseason, a very solid wager is to Play On teams that have lost by 10 or more points. It doesn’t win all the time, but is 5-1 SU and ATS to start this year. Coaches ride the players hard after such a loss, even in August. Because they have more players in camp, the injury factor is less an issue to key players as compared to the regular season and they do more hitting during intense practices. For week 3 consider - Tennessee, Detroit, Carolina, Houston, Buffalo, Arizona and Denver as all possible plays off a significant loss.

The baseball pennant races are really heating up and this is a good time to think about what teams have to do the rest of the way and are they good wagers the rest of the season?

The Boston Red Sox trail the New York Yankees by six games in the loss column. (I prefer to use this since all teams are scheduled to play 162 games) If the Yankees continue to play about the same pace, they should win 101 games this season. That would mean the Red Sox would have to finish the season 30-8 just to tie their hated rival, which seems unlikely. Boston will be favored in every home game the rest of the year unless maybe a bad pitching matchup against Roy Halladay of Toronto or against the Los Angeles Angels. They are probably better served to get the team healthy and playing their best baseball capturing the wild card.

Detroit has 21 of remaining 36 games at home, where they are spectacular 40-20 (+12.4 units). Their most challenging games will be home and home with Tampa Bay. Otherwise, it’s up to the Tigers to take care of business, playing their two closest competitors Chicago and Minnesota, 13 times in their last 16 games, including the last seven at Comerica Park. It’s Detroit’s division to lose.

The Los Angeles Angels might have the second best record in baseball, yet are not a sure thing to win the division, five games ahead of Texas. The Angels should benefit playing 21 of last 38 at the Big A in Anaheim, however the pitching has to have manager Mike Scioscia popping Tums like most playing chewing sunflowers seeds. The Halos have baseball’s best offense and they need to, since only Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore and Washington allow more runs per game. The Angels have mid-September road trip to Boston and Texas and return home to face the Yankees and four more games with the Rangers, whom they are 3-9 against.

Do the Chicago Cubs have any chance trailing the St. Louis by seven in the loss column? It’s remote, but the window isn’t completely closed. These NL Central rivals will meet one last time for three game series on September 18. If the Cardinals maintain the same pace they are at, they should win 12 of next 21. (As of Tuesday night) That would mean the Cubs would have to win 17 of 23 to be within three games when the series starts. Though it sounds nearly impossible, the North Siders play teams worse than themselves like Washington, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and the Mets and comparable teams like Houston, Milwaukee and the White Sox (make-up game). The task is made further difficult having only two open dates remaining compared to the Cardinals five.

Nothing to report on the Philadelphia Phillies unless they turn into the New York Mets of the past few seasons and totally collapse.

The Colorado Rockies are in playoff position and could still win the NL West, playing host 21 of last 36 ballgames at Coors Field. They are playing the front-running Dodgers right now and have six games remaining at San Francisco. They would love to have three meaningful games at Dodger Stadium the last weekend of the regular season for the division crown.

Los Angeles’ immediate goal is to build lead over Colorado to no less than four games when they leave town Thursday. If they would manage to do so, they quite literally could be favored in almost every game the rest of the year. The only teams they will face with winning records are San Francisco (home and home series) and the final three encounters versus the Rockies.

San Francisco still has a shot at the wild card, but they will have to win five of six or more at AT&T Park against the Rockies to give themselves a chance. The task might be too overwhelming, still having to take on the Dodgers six times, at Philadelphia for three and hosting the Cubs four times.