Looking ahead in the rear view mirror

Coaching is often an overlooked aspect of sports betting. Sometimes how a coach prepares a team will have a direct impact on the outcome of a game. Oregon and Illinois were two examples of teams that looked extremely unprepared despite plenty of talk from the respective squads how they were going to dish out revenge.

New coach Chip Kelly’s team was impatient on offense and was completely befuddled by Boise State’s defense. No ability to run or pass in a game that shouldn’t have been as close as the final score.

Ron Zook is starting to look very much like he did in Florida, making Illinois an impossible wager. The Illini defense had a few big hits but was outclassed by a prepared Missouri offense. Juice Williams looked like he was past the expiration date and was totally ineffective. After Illinois State this week, the stumbling Illini are at Ohio State, host Penn State and at Michigan State. This team will win when it’s has no chance and lose in spectacular fashion, just like the “Zooker” teams did in Gainesville.

The Big Ten was 10-1, but 1-6 ATS. Ohio State was shaky, Wisconsin had to battle, Minnesota went to overtime with Syracuse and Iowa needed consecutive blocked field goal attempts to hold off FCS Northern Iowa.

At least the Big Ten won a number of games, the ACC was 4-6 and 1-4 ATS. Two of the spread losses were outright upsets as home favorites and Virginia fell at home 26-14 to William and Mary, (maybe they should have just played Mary) and Duke was rounded up by Richmond 24-16. About the only positive for either conference is league play should be competitive.

Syracuse played with more energy than anyone has seen in years and could have beaten Minnesota. Former Duke point guard Greg Paulus gave good accounting as starting Orangemen quarterback after not playing football for four years.

The Washington Huskies are not going to have a winning record; however they will be much improved, with a good offense led by quarterback Jake Locker. Definite underdog and back door potential with the Huskies.

Alabama could be VERY good come October. What’s so impressive about the Crimson Tide is they have players with large bodies and posteriors who can run and really smack people. The offensive line will only get better and they appear to have ability to wear down opponents in the fourth quarter. This team will be quickly overvalued.

Does Notre Dame FINALLY have something in the works? We’ll know more against improved Michigan, but the real tests will come later.

Tennessee and Auburn showed they might be better than expected, however sports bettors shouldn’t get too excited just yet. Both schools were playing at home in very positive environments that lent themselves to big opening games against inferior competition. Were the wins and covers impressive, yes, but much like the U.S. Open tennis tournament being played in New York, the Vols and Tigers just held serve, Let’s see when adversity strikes and see how they react.

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins challenged his team to think big in the off-season and said the goal was to win 10 games in 2009. That task just became a little tougher after being upset 23-17 as 13-point favorites in Boulder. The worst part was the Buffalos looked similar to other teams viewed this weekend; they just weren’t mentally prepared for first game of the season in trailing 17-0, which is inexcusable.

Games to watch this week include Notre Dame at Michigan to see which team is further ahead or possibly can North Carolina defeat Connecticut, as the Huskies were popular play against team last week at Ohio and are 33-17 (20-12-1 ATS) at home since 2003. South Carolina becomes a big opponent for Georgia who hasn’t lost first two games since 1996. East Carolina and West Virginia won’t receive a lot of national exposure, but is important contest for both teams. The Pirates want to show they are Top 25 team and the Mountaineers want to prove they are still the team to beat in the Big East.

Study the numbers

Those who wagered early were not particularly effective with 5-8 ATS record on the sides and 2-3 mark on totals that moved 2.5 or more points as of last Tuesday.

Favorites were 20-19 against the spread and double digit home favorites were 11-9 ATS. Home underdogs didn’t have much luck with 3-5 ATS record.

In studying the final numbers, games in which the final number moved three points or greater, the wagering public was 9-5 ATS on the sides and 6-4-1 on the totals. Overall, the Under was the play at press time with 22-17-1 record for week one.