Backing West Virginia Takes Courage

Before the season, the Big East Conference figured to be one of the most competitive in the country and that is holding true heading into the last weekend of October. West Virginia, as expected has held up well with 6-1 record (2-4 ATS). Like all teams, the Mountaineers have had to deal with adversity. Six turnovers cost them a win at Auburn and quarterback Jarrett Brown suffered a mild concussion on West Virginia’s fourth offensive play and left the game against in-state rival Marshall, which meant true freshman backup Geno Smith had to step in and guide team to 24-7 win.

As the Mountaineers have distanced themselves from the option offense, receivers like Jock Sanders have seen more throws. Running back Noel Devine might not be seeing as many chances to get wide; however the running lanes are still there for the speedy back, as the Mountaineers are second in the conference in total offense at 420.9 yards per game. West Virginia’s run defense is one of the best (10th overall) in allowing 2.8 yards per carry. The ‘Teers are 12-3 and 11-4 ATS on the Big East road the last five years.

Under coach Bill Stewart wins are likely, however spread covers not so much. The always smiling Stewart is 16-5 SU with 7-12 ATS record.

This is the last of brutish three-game stretch for South Florida (5-2, 2-3 ATS), after taking on conference partner’s Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and losing to each of them. The Bulls have been running the ball effectively (177.7 yards per game) on a couple of fronts, with quarterback B.J. Daniels scampering on predetermined and not so predetermined runs. The normal aspect of the running game has worked with a trio of running backs all displaying different skills.

One conundrum South Florida has to change if they want to really be a true Big East contender, quit taking all the penalties (over nine per game). Against lesser competition they have the talent to overcome them. But when looking in the mirror talent-wise, this is real shortcoming for team that is 3-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

South Florida is known for having talented defensive linemen like George Selvie, yet has allowed over 175 yards rushing in four of seven games, suggesting a lack of discipline up front and linebackers not able to stay free and make tackles. After Pittsburgh pasted them for 214 yards on the ground in 41-14 thumping, the Bulls are 1-4 ATS after permitting 200 or more yards rushing.

DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as three-point road favorite, with total of 48. South Florida is 3-1 ATS vs. West Virginia with outright upsets in 2006-07. To forecast the Mountaineers performance, a Magic 8 ball comes in handy. Does the West Virginia team with 19-7 ATS record in October road games show up or the one that is 1-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better make appearance.

ESPN2 will have this Big East battle and watch the total, with average score 35 combined points in the four meetings.