The Chargers will look to bolt to lead on Monday Night

The Chargers waited until Week 13 last season to get their act together and snagged the division title on the final Sunday of the season. This year’s push for the AFC West crown needs to begin on Monday night when they host upstart Denver, which comes off its fifth win out of the gate.

San Diego (2-2, 1-3 ATS) hasn’t enjoyed a fast start since 2006 when it won four of its first five and finished 13-3. It lost three of four to start the following season and was 2-3 at this same time a year ago. At .500 and coming off a bye as well as a 38-28 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 4, head coach Norv Turner can’t put his finger on one thing that’s ailing his talented club that is 6-15-3 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 or fewer points.

Fatigue won’t be to blame if San Diego drops this critical Monday night contest against the Broncos. The Chargers will have had 15 days to prepare its No. 26th ranked defense. They have really missed NT Jamal Williams, surrendering 151 yards on the ground (27th). Coach Turner’s team is in must-win mode, and fortunately, has done just that versus Denver of late, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in last six meetings. They’ve also done well at home under Turner, going 14-6 ATS, including 4-2 ATS vs. divisional foes.

The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS after beating New England and head into their bye week next Sunday. Denver had a myriad of defensive issues a year ago, but not anymore. Its resurgence has been led by a unit that was nothing short of a sieve in 2008, yielding 28 points per game, including 90 in two meetings with the Chargers. Through the first five weeks, new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has directed a group that allowed 43 points (1st in the NFL) and no more than 17 in any game. Even against the Patriots and Tom Brady, the Broncos didn’t come apart and pitched a shutout in the second half and are second in total defense.

The Broncos are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine pre-bye week games on the road vs division squads. Denver won its only game vs. an AFC West foe so far, snapping a skid of 3-15 ATS vs. division rivals.

Denver opened as four-point road underdogs and once the public took a closer look, they moved them to three-point dogs. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS versus AFC opponents with rest. DiamondSportsbook.com has the total at 43.5 and Denver is 16-5 OVER in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. San Diego is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous outing and is 20-6 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Denver covers if they establish the run against San Diego. With no Williams in the middle, Pro Bowl center Casey Wiegmann should get a great push, opening lanes for rookie Knowshon Moreno to earn tough yards inside and burst either way with an opening. The Broncos have started slow each of the last two games, trailing by 10 points early. Though coach Josh McDaniels and his staff have made outstanding adjustments at halftime, with Denver an otherworldly 59-7 in the second half, that might not work as well on the road. A confident team with a quick start could add discomfort to a division club not playing at their level with a first quarter burst. Phillip Rivers is arguably the best deep passer in the NFL, the safeties have to maintain their integrity and limit big gains.

San Diego covers if they play with the needed urgency in a division game with plenty of rest. The Chargers were pancaked at Pittsburgh, before making late rally. Falling behind to Denver plays into their hands as their defense is even tougher with a lead. San Diego has to improve dramatically on first down on offense and defense. They rank 25th is first down efficiency offensively and opponents convert 49 percent of third downs, mostly because of earlier down failures. The Chargers have generated the fewest amount of third and longs in the league. Try and make QB Kyle Orton a difference-maker, not a game manager like he has been for the most part. Take the early lead, play solid run defense and have Orton play from behind for significant periods of time.

Monday Night System – Play Against any MNF home team off a bye hosting a division rival. (10-2 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.