Of the various boggle the brain teams, Cincinnati has to be right at the top, as they are one beyond belief tipped pass away from being 4-0 this season. The Bengals play their third straight AFC North conflict and could wrestle first place away from Baltimore with the upset. What is wrong with the Cowboys that a trip to Kansas City wouldn’t fix? Atlanta and San Francisco tries to prove which team truly is on the rise in 2009. After a sluggish start, Arizona is back from a bye looking at Houston team that is similar to their club from a year ago. It’s another big test for unbeaten Denver with New England in the Mile High City.Cincinnati at Baltimore 1:00E CBS
Who would’ve thought this just over a month ago?…Cincinnati (2-2 ATS, 3-1 Ov) and Baltimore (3-1 ATS, 3-1 Ov) will be battling for the AFC North lead when they clash in Week 5. The Bengals have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises, boasting a 3-1 record, same as the Ravens. In fact, take away the tipped ball miracle play in Week 1 and Cincy is unbeaten right now with wins over Green Bay and Pittsburgh on its resume. Here, they’ll be looking to up their record in Baltimore to 4-3 under Marvin Lewis and win their third ATS win in four tries vs. a division foe. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS as a favorite under John Harbaugh and 6-2 ATS versus AFC North opponents, but are off the humbling setback in New England. Favorites in this series are on a 14-5 SU and ATS run.
Keys to the Game-
The Bengals have to catch some Flac, as in sack Joe Flacco to limit the Baltimore passing game. Keep DE Antwan Odom’s motor on high and have him keep after Flacco. Against the run, gap control is mandatory or the Ravens will run the ball down Cincy’s throat for four quarters. Cincinnati 10-1-1 ATS after playing Cleveland and it will be Carson Palmer’s job all day to read S Ed Reed’s keys and change plays off of his actions.
In Ravens loss to New England, too often various members of the secondary took bad angles, which led to poor tackling. This can’t happen against Chad Ochocinco and the dangerous Chris Henry, who is nightmare matchup for any team’s third cornerback. Baltimore has stopped Cincinnati’s straight ahead running game for years, but Cedric Benson has the speed to get wide and Brian Leonard is solid as one-cut-and-go runs. The Ravens have NFL’s top run defense, however Bengals aren’t pushovers anymore at 4.5 yards per carry. The Birds are 12-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.
3DW Line – Baltimore by 12
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -8.5, 42.
Dallas at Kansas City 1:00E FOX
After losing at Denver, Dallas (2-2 SU&ATS) continues its two week road trip through the AFC West with a trip to Kansas City. The Cowboys record as a road favorite dropped to 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS under Wade Phillips by losing to the Broncos, but more importantly, they lost another game in the NFC East standings. They’ll enjoy next Sunday off, important since Dallas is on a run of 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games. Kansas City (0-4 SU&ATS) is playing its second straight as host to an NFC East club, after coming up short 27-16 against the Giants. With that spread loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home vs. NFC opponents. The Cowboys have only visited Arrowhead Stadium once in the last 18 years (’98) and the home team is 4-0 SU & 2-0-2 ATS in the last four games of this series.
Keys to the Game-
Without Terrell Owens, teams no longer fear the Dallas deep passing attack. Roy Williams (who might not play) is a poor route runner as are many of the Cowboys receivers. Tony Romo isn’t always the most accurate passer and needs help from pass catchers to get more open and hang onto the ball. Dallas is 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and defensively needs to shutdown the Chiefs on first down, which sets up bring the house on third down. The Dallas pass rush has been anemic, but with K.C. 29th in pass offense, great time for the Boys to get happy.
Dallas is third in rushing yards at 163.7 yards per game, which would leave Kansas City with fewer possessions if they let them play keep away. Stop the Cowboys and look to discourage them since they allow 4.7 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are not making any big plays and have to in all three phases to pull the upset. A couple of big passing plays, an interception or fumble recovery and a long punt return gives the Chiefs a chance since they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Lastly, score touchdowns in the red zone and concede field goals in the same area, which would different this season.
3DWLine – Dallas by 8
Bookmaker.com Line – Dallas -7.5, 43.5
After losing at Denver, Dallas (2-2 SU&ATS) continues its two week road trip through the AFC West with a trip to Kansas City. The Cowboys record as a road favorite dropped to 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS under Wade Phillips by losing to the Broncos, but more importantly, they lost another game in the NFC East standings. They’ll enjoy next Sunday off, important since Dallas is on a run of 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games. Kansas City (0-4 SU&ATS) is playing its second straight as host to an NFC East club, after coming up short 27-16 against the Giants. With that spread loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home vs. NFC opponents. The Cowboys have only visited Arrowhead Stadium once in the last 18 years (’98) and the home team is 4-0 SU & 2-0-2 ATS in the last four games of this series.
Keys to the Game-
Without Terrell Owens, teams no longer fear the Dallas deep passing attack. Roy Williams (who might not play) is a poor route runner as are many of the Cowboys receivers. Tony Romo isn’t always the most accurate passer and needs help from pass catchers to get more open and hang onto the ball. Dallas is 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and defensively needs to shutdown the Chiefs on first down, which sets up bring the house on third down. The Dallas pass rush has been anemic, but with K.C. 29th in pass offense, great time for the Boys to get happy.
Dallas is third in rushing yards at 163.7 yards per game, which would leave Kansas City with fewer possessions if they let them play keep away. Stop the Cowboys and look to discourage them since they allow 4.7 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are not making any big plays and have to in all three phases to pull the upset. A couple of big passing plays, an interception or fumble recovery and a long punt return gives the Chiefs a chance since they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Lastly, score touchdowns in the red zone and concede field goals in the same area, which would different this season.
3DWLine – Dallas by 8
Bookmaker.com Line – Dallas -7.5, 43.5
Atlanta at San Francisco 4:05E FOX
When Atlanta (2-1 ATS, 2-1Un) left the NFC West Division in 2002, it meant making fewer trips to San Francisco. That was welcomed news since the Falcons have struggled when visiting the Bay Area, and in fact, are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 adventures when visiting the 49ers. That one win came in the most recent trip though, in 2004, and now looks to make it two in row. Atlanta comes in at 2-1 and off its bye week, but the next seven games will make or break its chances for a second straight playoff appearance. San Francisco (4-0 ATS, 3-1Un) is 3-1 after shutting out St. Louis and very well could be 4-0. The 49ers seem to be restoring some long lost home field advantage, having gone 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS under Mike Singletary. Atlanta is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1999.
Keys to the Game-
Atlanta has done a poor job against the run (25th) and has to shore up this area up against San Francisco who prefers to establish a ground game. Defensive tackles Trey Lewis and Thomas Johnson must be more stout in the A and B gaps and at least won’t have to fret about Frank Gore, who is out. The Falcons are 14-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in consecutive games. Atlanta brought in Tony Gonzalez to open up the passing game, but it shouldn’t be at the expense of Roddy White, who’s averaging only eight yards a catch. White is deep threat and home run hitter, use him.
San Francisco only manufactured 228 yards of offense in scoring 35 points last week against the Rams, thanks to three defensive scores. The lack of offensive punch is due to supposedly strong offensive line looking and acting worse than Jon Gosselin. This contingent needs to come together and start exploding off the ball and Birds D-Line is custom made to so. The defense is sixth overall and would be wise to take away Gonzalez and make Matt Ryan go after their excellent corners. The Niners are 6-0 ATS at Candlestick Park after covering the number.
3DWLine – San Francisco by 5.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – San Francisco -2.5, 40.5
When Atlanta (2-1 ATS, 2-1Un) left the NFC West Division in 2002, it meant making fewer trips to San Francisco. That was welcomed news since the Falcons have struggled when visiting the Bay Area, and in fact, are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 adventures when visiting the 49ers. That one win came in the most recent trip though, in 2004, and now looks to make it two in row. Atlanta comes in at 2-1 and off its bye week, but the next seven games will make or break its chances for a second straight playoff appearance. San Francisco (4-0 ATS, 3-1Un) is 3-1 after shutting out St. Louis and very well could be 4-0. The 49ers seem to be restoring some long lost home field advantage, having gone 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS under Mike Singletary. Atlanta is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1999.
Keys to the Game-
Atlanta has done a poor job against the run (25th) and has to shore up this area up against San Francisco who prefers to establish a ground game. Defensive tackles Trey Lewis and Thomas Johnson must be more stout in the A and B gaps and at least won’t have to fret about Frank Gore, who is out. The Falcons are 14-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in consecutive games. Atlanta brought in Tony Gonzalez to open up the passing game, but it shouldn’t be at the expense of Roddy White, who’s averaging only eight yards a catch. White is deep threat and home run hitter, use him.
San Francisco only manufactured 228 yards of offense in scoring 35 points last week against the Rams, thanks to three defensive scores. The lack of offensive punch is due to supposedly strong offensive line looking and acting worse than Jon Gosselin. This contingent needs to come together and start exploding off the ball and Birds D-Line is custom made to so. The defense is sixth overall and would be wise to take away Gonzalez and make Matt Ryan go after their excellent corners. The Niners are 6-0 ATS at Candlestick Park after covering the number.
3DWLine – San Francisco by 5.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – San Francisco -2.5, 40.5
Houston at Arizona 4:15E CBS
Two high-powered passing attacks, Houston & Arizona, will go head-to-head in what is expected to be a game featuring plenty of offensive fireworks. That should showcase the talents of the Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald and the Texans’ Andre Johnson. Both are big, strong receivers with excellent hands. The Cards have tended to come out of bye weeks not so chipper and are 11-3 UNDER in post-bye week games since 1994. The defending NFC champion Cardinals (1-2 ATS&UNDER) took last week off to find answers for their slow 1-2 start. The good news is they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams passing for more than 7.0 yards per attempt. Houston (2-2 ATS) has averaged 7.7 YPA in its 2-2 start, and comes in on a 7-1 ATS surge as an underdog. The Texans are 5-9 ATS when visiting NFC foes. This will be just the second time these teams have met, and the first time in Arizona.
Keys to the Game –
Two high-powered passing attacks, Houston & Arizona, will go head-to-head in what is expected to be a game featuring plenty of offensive fireworks. That should showcase the talents of the Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald and the Texans’ Andre Johnson. Both are big, strong receivers with excellent hands. The Cards have tended to come out of bye weeks not so chipper and are 11-3 UNDER in post-bye week games since 1994. The defending NFC champion Cardinals (1-2 ATS&UNDER) took last week off to find answers for their slow 1-2 start. The good news is they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams passing for more than 7.0 yards per attempt. Houston (2-2 ATS) has averaged 7.7 YPA in its 2-2 start, and comes in on a 7-1 ATS surge as an underdog. The Texans are 5-9 ATS when visiting NFC foes. This will be just the second time these teams have met, and the first time in Arizona.
Keys to the Game –
Houston is 29th against the run and if they can’t stop Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells (3.2 YPC), they have no business in talking about playoff possibilities. The Texans have been blitzing a lot, yet have only five sacks to show for their efforts. Kurt Warner is a top five quarterbacks with protection, however in the bottom 25 percent when pressured. Houston is 4-14 ATS as road underdog off a conquest and they will add one more to the right side of the ledger unless they get Steve Slaton started (Texans 3.2 YPC). Run screens, quicker hitting plays, whatever it takes, since Matt Schaub’s effectiveness shrinks without running game.
Knock, knock. Who’s there? The 2009 season! Arizona players and coaches said they were unaffected by Super Bowl loss, yet based on actions; they appear to be less than truthful. Start with protecting Kurt Warner. Yes, he’s going to hang on the ball too long, this isn’t news to those wearing Cardinal red. Give him time to make the throws. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is calling the plays, hey a coach, your receivers are REALLY good, throw them the ball. Arizona is 16-5 ATS in home games versus mediocre defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards a play, punish them. On defense, the Redbirds can stop the run, they have to protect against the big pass play.
3DWLine - Arizona by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – Arizona -5.5, 50
New England at Denver 4:15E CBS
There will be plenty of hype surrounding the New England-Denver showdown, for more than the coaching matchup, as Bill Belichick takes on his former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. Surprisingly, it is McDaniels that is receiving more accolades, with his team atop the AFC West. With a 4-0 SU & ATS record and the NFL’s best defense at 6.5 points per game allowed, the Broncos continue a treacherous eight-game stretch as three-point home dogs to the 3-1 Patriots. Belichick’s club is seemingly regaining its footing as QB Tom Brady becomes more comfortable. New England (2-2 ATS) boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a touchdown in the Belichick era. The last seven games these teams have played in Denver have averaged 48 points per contest, while going OVER the total six times.
Keys to the Game-
It must be the altitude, because New England is 3-10 ATS in Denver. The loss of Fred Taylor means Laurence Maroney better get his game together quickly, since the Patriots need offensive balance against the No. 3 pass defense. The Pats showed great improvement last week in the red zone, converting touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, that must continue. This had to be a cerebral week of practice for the New England offense, since McDaniel is the one that set it up. The Brady bunch has to use false keys and give new looks to the same plays to confuse Denver D. New England is 7-1 ATS off consecutive covers.
The Broncos defense is the most important aspect of quick start and they have the secondary that can allow Denver to blitz Brady, much in the fashion the Jets did in holding the Patriots to nine points. New England shows up at eighth in total defense, but they are surrendering 4.5 yards per carry. The Denver’s offensive line is good enough to tie up Pats D-Line, and a set of ordinary linebackers will get caught in the scrum. See if the Pats can really contain the run. The Broncos can reverse trend of 4-12 ATS record off a home game by making big plays like last week. Look for Brandon Marshall and get the ball to Eddie Royal short to restore his confidence.
3DW Line – Denver by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -3, 41
There will be plenty of hype surrounding the New England-Denver showdown, for more than the coaching matchup, as Bill Belichick takes on his former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. Surprisingly, it is McDaniels that is receiving more accolades, with his team atop the AFC West. With a 4-0 SU & ATS record and the NFL’s best defense at 6.5 points per game allowed, the Broncos continue a treacherous eight-game stretch as three-point home dogs to the 3-1 Patriots. Belichick’s club is seemingly regaining its footing as QB Tom Brady becomes more comfortable. New England (2-2 ATS) boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a touchdown in the Belichick era. The last seven games these teams have played in Denver have averaged 48 points per contest, while going OVER the total six times.
Keys to the Game-
It must be the altitude, because New England is 3-10 ATS in Denver. The loss of Fred Taylor means Laurence Maroney better get his game together quickly, since the Patriots need offensive balance against the No. 3 pass defense. The Pats showed great improvement last week in the red zone, converting touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, that must continue. This had to be a cerebral week of practice for the New England offense, since McDaniel is the one that set it up. The Brady bunch has to use false keys and give new looks to the same plays to confuse Denver D. New England is 7-1 ATS off consecutive covers.
The Broncos defense is the most important aspect of quick start and they have the secondary that can allow Denver to blitz Brady, much in the fashion the Jets did in holding the Patriots to nine points. New England shows up at eighth in total defense, but they are surrendering 4.5 yards per carry. The Denver’s offensive line is good enough to tie up Pats D-Line, and a set of ordinary linebackers will get caught in the scrum. See if the Pats can really contain the run. The Broncos can reverse trend of 4-12 ATS record off a home game by making big plays like last week. Look for Brandon Marshall and get the ball to Eddie Royal short to restore his confidence.
3DW Line – Denver by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -3, 41
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