Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

With one quarter of the season remaining in the NFL, the pretenders and contenders are sorting their way out. This week we’ll take a look at the prospects of the main contenders for the 12 available spots in the postseason and what their current odds are to win their respective conferences are. As is always the case in the NFL, one injury or loss can completely change how a team is viewed and seeing I don’t work for MSNBC or Fox News, I can’t predict the future nearly as well as they do. Thus, I will use my knowledge of the facts and extrapolate them.

The New Orleans Saints are -125 to win the NFC and are on pace to make history. As great as the Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were in 2007, the Saints appear better in some ways. They have a greater diversification of weapons and can play different styles to beat opponents. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are in that Bill Walsh/Joe Montana oneness of mind, thinking up schemes that free up players to catch passes and open chasms for running backs is artistic in the football sense. The Saints still have to play all three division foes and they have a good history at Atlanta and at Carolina. They have Dallas in Week 15, which is toughest remaining test. New Orleans should stay focused with Minnesota directly behind them.

There are three leading candidates for MVP, but only one is 40 years old and arguably is having his best season. The season has to play out, but no one player has impacted his team more in a positive sense than No.4. Minnesota is +140 at DiamondSportsbook.com to take the NFC crown and Brett Favre has made a pedestrian receiving core well above average and taken pressure off Adrian Peterson. The defense is still improving and extremely fast on the carpet. Minnesota’s two toughest games remaining are at the Metrodome in Week 14 and 17 vs. Cincinnati and the Giants. They will be road favorites at Carolina and Chicago.

With the Cowboys putrid record in last four games of the regular season (11-25 SU, 12-23-1 ATS last nine years), this year’s slate isn’t conducive to winning either. In order, Dallas takes on San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington and Philadelphia. Now tied for first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys are listed as +1500 to take conference.

The defending NFC champions Arizona (+700) should improve on last year’s 9-7 record facing San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis the next three weeks (the first two as visitors) and if all goes as presumed, their last game of the year might mean something to Green Bay.

The wild card picture at the moment has four teams for two spots. Atlanta has a chance, but they have to win out. The Falcons last three games are all winnable, at the Jets, Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. It’s this week’s game at the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints that might be the determining factor. The Giants still have a lot of work to do and division games against the Eagles, at the Redskins and at Minnesota make this a real challenge. After this past week, the Giants (+2000) and Atlanta (+5000) odds have been adjusted significantly.

If Green Bay (+2000) fails to meet expectations, the loss at than 0-7 Tampa Bay will haunt them. The Packers are the only NFC team in the playoff hunt that has to play three of last four encounters on the road. They have the rival Bears in Chi-town on a short week and also have trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. At least one win will be required to make the postseason.

Philadelphia (+1000) theoretically has the most challenging remaining schedule with all four opponents still alive the postseason. Included are division excursions to the Giants and Dallas, with San Francisco and Denver in the City of Brotherly Love.

In the AFC, part of equation is virtually complete. The Indianapolis Colts have already started talk of resting players to get them healthy for the postseason. This is common practice for the Colts, who play three of the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is -140 wager to represent their conference, yet how often has a team been on cruise control in the latter part of the season and faltered before Super Bowl. Only once have the Colts won division and had a bye week and even advanced to AFC title tilt, which they lost in 2004.

The next closest contenders on this side of the bracket appear to be Cincinnati (+500) and San Diego (+350). These two clubs are in contention for the second seed and bye and their week 15 matchup at Qualcomm Stadium just might be the deciding factor. Before then the Bengals have to navigate a tough trip the land of 10,000 frozen lakes and go up against the team in purple. If Cincy lost at Minnesota but wins at San Diego, they might be fine with last two games vs. Kansas City and at the Jets. The offense needs to pick up scoring, as they have totaled more than 20 points just twice in last eight affairs.

The Chargers have been playing tremendous football and will have to keep playing the same with the rest of their schedule. This week it’s a dandy at Dallas, followed by the aforementioned Bengals bout. That is followed by adventure to Tennessee, who is not going quietly and the Bolts finish at home against Washington, who is playing everybody tough.

It started last year, but this is not the same New England team that 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl in 2007. This team has several defensive holes and the front office might looks to have erred in trading Richard Seymour, whose presents likely would have covered up secondary flaws. The Patriots are +700, however that seems based on reputation more than current status. Nonetheless, they should close the season 4-0 with their schedule.

Denver should do no worse than the top wild card and still is in contention for AFC West crown. Expect them to win last two home games against Oakland and Kansas City. Their ultimate destination will be determined by how they perform at Indianapolis this week and in two weeks at Philadelphia. The Broncos are the second longest shot to win the AFC of contenders at +2000.

The team the oddsmakers or fans don’t like is Jacksonville and for good reason. The Jaguars (+5000) average 18.7 points per game and surrender 22.7, yet 7-5 record has them in the hunt for extra playing time. The Washington Redskins at 3-9 have a better score differential (-38 vs. -48). The Jags will have to navigate thru Miami and Indy at home and finish at New England and at Cleveland to help decide their fate.

Baltimore has the scheduling edge over Pittsburgh for wild card berth, but chances are the week 16 meeting between these physical rivals at Heinz Field will determine each ones fate. The Ravens have three pushovers in Chicago, Detroit and Oakland, with the first two at home and latter against Raiders team who will probably have bags packed for the season BEFORE the game.

The Steelers win at Cleveland, but have curious matchups with the Packers at home and at Miami to close 16-game slate. Despite this, the Steelers as defending Super Bowl champions are +1200 compared to Baltimore +1500.

It’s possible a team not mentioned here could finish the season 4-0 and one or more of these other teams could falter; however there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.