College Hoops Dominates Landscape

For a lot of casual bettors and fans, this is really the kickoff of the college basketball season. Forget the fact that more than half the season has already been played, with no football this weekend (unless you consider the Senior Bowl and Pro Bowl football) a vast number of people start turning their attention towards college hoops and beginning mentally prepping for March Madness which is not that many weeks away. Here is a look at some of the top matches this weekend on the collegiate hardwood. Sides and total from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 3o

Louisville at West Virginia (-7, 137.5) 12:00E ESPN

Louisville (13-7, 5-10 ATS), playing in the Big East is going to face more than their fair share of challenging opponents and as per usual went out of conference to face a number of tough hombres. Come tournament time that helps your resume, however it really helps the confidence of the team to beat a Top 25 club, not just play with them. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU and ATS against ranked teams and will have another shot to improve against West Virginia. The Cards are 18-7 ATS in conference road games over the last three seasons.

Since its fast start, West Virginia (16-3, 7-11 ATS) has been erratic in its play since 2010 began with 5-3 and 3-5 ATS record. Continual 40 minute effort has been lacking, with the Mountaineers playing like characters in a Rob Zombie movie, with no visible signs of emotion. What has curtailed West Virginia’s excellence is their star players have not been playing like stars. Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks have been off their game somewhat and it has had a trickle affect on the team. They will look to find earlier rhythm and are 38-20 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three point shots a game.

Louisville has failed to cover their last five contests; however is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against West Virginia the last dozen years.

Duke at Georgetown (+2, 141.5) 1:00E CBS

As opposed to previous few seasons, this Duke (17-3, 13-6 ATS) team could do some damage in the NCAA Tournament instead of being bounced early on. This matchup with Georgetown will be a good barometer where the Blue Devils are at present and what improvements they should work on. Credit Kyle Singler for finding ways to work thru shooting slump. Instead of just firing away, he brought his game closer to the basket, taking more 10-15 foot shots and worked the offensive glass, building confidence until he was back in groove for team that is 11-21 ATS against the Big East.

The same measuring stick can all be used by Georgetown (15-4, 8-7 ATS), who was scorched by Syracuse 73-56 after starting the contest with 14-0 lead. The Hoyas Greg Monroe has become the focal point of the team, delivering all over the floor and his desire to run on the break not only shows hustle, but a willingness to be team player, hungry to win. In reviewing Georgetown’s season, one fact sticks out like Heidi Montag’s plastic surgeries, if Chris Wright doesn’t play well, the Hoyas will labor to be victorious. G-Town is a raunchy 11-22 ATS in home games over the last three seasons.

Duke comes in 10-4 ATS off a win like they enjoyed over Florida State, while Georgetown is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference tilts. With both teams ranked, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in five previous meetings.

Oklahoma State at Missouri (-7.5, 145.5) 2:00E ESPN

The top three teams in the Big 12 have been established, but who is one rung down? We’ll start to find out with this encounter. Oklahoma State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS) is a smallish team, too dependent on outside shooting, which explains them ranking ninth in the conference in buckets made. When the offense breaks down, all eyes turn to guard James Anderson to bail them out. Though Anderson his very good player, he can’t be counted on to make shots from bad spots on the floor with the shot clock winding down. The Cowboys are going to have to step up after losing two of last three as visitors and are 26-43 ATS as a road underdog or pick.

Missouri’s unique brand of basketball is a little like the triple option in football, you can simulate it in practice, but that doesn’t mean you are ready for it in games. The Tigers (15-5, 8-6 ATS) defensive pressure forces over 20 turnovers a game, however what coach Mike Anderson’s club doesn’t get credit for is defending the perimeter, allowing the lowest three-point percentage of buckets made in the Big 12. Missouri’s front line looks to matchup and secure a draw, being inexperienced and having the guards to score points. The Tigers are 21-12 ATS as a favorite since last year.

Okie State has a three game win streak in the works and is 17-5-1 ATS off a SU victory. Missouri is perfect 12-0 at home this season (5-2 ATS) and is 21-6 against the spread in last 27 contests in Columbia. The straight up winner is 8-1-1 ATS since 2002.

Washington State at Washington (-8.5, 156) 3:30E FSN

Alright, the Pac-10 has a foul odor about it and even the Patriot League looks more interesting this season. Nonetheless, somebody has to win this conference and these two teams believe they can answer the bell to be that team. Washington State (14-6, 6-11 ATS) is your classic ADHD team, seldom focusing for long periods of time without drifting into other thoughts. Coach Ken Bone is looking a more even keel approach and threatened to start sitting players if they are not ready to play, even star Klay Thompson. The Cougars are 10-19 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game.

Coach Lorenzo Romar had seen enough. After three indifferent Pac-10 performances that ended up being losses, coach Romar inserted forward Justin Holiday into the starting lineup and he set the table with his defensive energy for others to follow. Senior Quincy Pondexter was pleased with the shakeup, since as a senior; he wants to win the Pac-10 title. Unfortunately, Washington (13-7) went to Los Angeles last weekend and was swept by the L.A. universities leaving them three games behind California in the Pac-10 chase. The Huskies want to hurry the pace and are 35-18 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points.

Washington is one of the worst bets in college basketball at 5-14 ATS. The Huskies have taken nine of last 12 at Bank of America Arena in the Apple Cup rivalry, but have played like dogs with just four covers.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-8.5, 154) 4:00E ESPN

Two weeks ago this SEC showdown would have been footnote in most newspapers across the country. That has abruptly changed with what has happen the last 14 days. Vanderbilt (16-3, 10-6 ATS) is the last unbeaten team in the conference with their impressive 85-76 win at Tennessee as six-point underdogs. That gave the Commodores 10 straight wins (7-2 ATS) and they are bubbling to the top as one of the best shooting teams in the country at 49.8 percent. Vandy shooters have been dandy, making less than half their attempts just twice in this streak. This underappreciated squad is 13-2 and 10-4 ATS off a SU triumph.

Top-ranked Kentucky (19-1, 9-9 ATS) was the last unbeaten to fall, being demonized by South Carolina guard Devan Downey, who literally threw in 30 points against the Wildcats. Coach John Calipari was mildly disappointed, more frustrated his team was outworked. However like any good coach, he’s not going to dwell on one defeat. “It’s a great lesson,” Calipari said. “A lot of times, until you take an ‘L’ they don’t want to believe you. Especially with how young we are.” Kentucky may be a young team, however the most shocking aspect from the loss was the no-show performance from junior Patrick Patterson, who totaled five points (0 in last 20 minutes) and lacked any sort of assertiveness they may have made the difference, especially from an upperclassman. The Cats are 8-0 and 5-1 ATS off a non-cover.

Kentucky will face a far more balanced team in Vanderbilt than they witnessed at South Carolina. Playing before Ashley Judd and the rest of the zealous Kentucky fans will be a big plus, along with being 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS against Vandy since 1998 in Lexington.

Kansas at Kansas State (+4, 155) 7:00E ESPN

Though Kansas (19-1,9-7-1 ATS) probably is the most talented team in the country, it hasn’t shown the killer instinct that of the club that won the national championship two years ago. The Jayhawks will go on auto-pilot emotionally and as coach Bill Self acknowledged, this group doesn’t like to embarrass opponents and flex their intimidation muscles like their predecessors. Kansas is 10-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season, but if they don’t bring a bucket of raw emotion like did in mauling Missouri this past Monday, they could stumble again.

Kansas State’s got game, a lot of game. The Wildcats (17-3, 11-4 ATS) not only have a sound backcourt, their frontline has proven to be vastly underrated. Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels have found ways to score in the paint and Luis Colon can be a defensive presence when not committing senseless fouls. Though Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente make a terrific backcourt combination, Rodney McGruder has a spark plug off the bench as third guard and will eat up more minutes if either of the other two is having off night. K-State is 9-2 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or points game this campaign.

This series is not a pantisocracy, with Kansas 11-1 SU and ATS at Bramlage Coliseum since 1997.

Sunday, Jan. 31

Florida at Tennessee (-7.5, 141 ) 1:00E CBS

Coach Billy Donovan has a conundrum. “I have a hard time figuring these guys out sometimes,” Donovan said. This is the main reason why Florida (15-5, 8-7 ATS) stumbled out of the SEC gate and is trying to play catch up in the formidable East Division. Among the problems is forward Dan Werner’s prolonged shooting slump. Though guard Erving Walker has been drilling shots beyond the arc, other than Alex Tyus, game to game the scoring has been spotty. The better teams continue to beat the Gators off dribble penetration and they do a poor job on rotation giving up too many easy buckets. They have strung together four SEC wins playing three of those games in Gainesville, but must be sound defensively since Florida is 0-7 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

This might be Bruce Pearl’s best coaching job. Losing four players to suspension (two returned) and having to end the career of his best player Tyler Smith for transgressions, Pearl helped unite his squad and they accepted responsibility. Often the merry prince, senior center Wayne Chism immediately thrust himself into leadership role and his on-court play jumped markedly. Presumed freshman sensation Kenny Hall was buried on the Tennessee bench, however after the upheaval; he’s become instant energy off the bench for the Vols. Veterans J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson and Bobby Maze have all become better players particularly on defense.

The Vols (15-4, 8-8 ATS) are 11-3 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots, but have failed to connect on more than 44 percent in last four games, losing the last two outright as favorites. Has the emotion worn off for Tennessee and now they are starting to feel the pain of not having Smith? Everyone finds out since the Volunteers are 9-3 and 8-4 ATS vs. Florida the last 12 seasons.

Maryland at Clemson (-4.5, 145 ) 5:30E FSN

The Terrapins started the season in the Top 25 and haven’t returned since losing two of three in Hawaii. That started a period of dissonant play in December, however since the calendar started a new year, Maryland (14-5, 8-6 ATS) is looking more like a ranked team again winning six of seven, including four in a row (6-0 ATS in January). Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is good for at least 20 points most nights and Landon Milbourne has regained level of more consistent play. Maryland was probably a bit overrated to begin with and everyone will have to play well against Clemson’s full court press. They Terps are 16-6 ATS in road games since 2007.

Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS) begins an important stretch of games, playing four of the next five at home after losing three in a row. Finished with Duke and North Carolina, the Tigers can write their own ticket for the ACC, trying to maneuver up from eighth place. Clemson has frequently played imposing basketball, but can’t sustain it for two halves often enough. They’ve built big leads and lost them and fallen behind and made furious comebacks, coach Oliver Purnell would prefer to see the pendulum not swing as dramatically. Clemson is 12-4 ATS in home games facing teams converting 45 or percent of their shots.

Maryland has won seven of 11 at Clemson with 4-6-1 ATS mark.