GMAC Bowl Preview

Quick, without looking it up, name the four bowl matchups that pitted two conference champions against one another. If you guessed Rose, Fiesta, BCS and the GMAC, advance to next page to collect your prize. (Sorry not really) Actually this bowl is full of surprises, some good and some not so good.

The GMAC Bowl has produced the most lopsided games of any bowls in recent years, as favorites are on an incredible 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning by an average margin of 30.3 points per game, despite what looked like occasionally fairly competitive games.

MAC champion Central Michigan (11-2, 8-3-1 ATS) hopes that trend continues as the favorite. The 2009 Chippewas were dominant as evidenced by the 33.2-to-17.2 scoring differential. CMU is led by Dan LeFevour, the greatest player in MAC history. Find that last statement too strong, not when you consider these numbers - 12,510 passing career yards, 101 passing touchdowns, running for almost 3,000 yards (2,936) and personally crossing the goal line 46 times. Most importantly, Central Michigan has won the league title in three of the four seasons LeFevour has been on the Mt. Pleasant campus. How important was he to the program, in the prior seven seasons the Chippewas were 26-51.

Like CMU, Troy (Sun Belt champion) won their conference for the third time in four years and comes in with a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark. The Trojans quarterback fortunes changed for the better last year, when transfer Levi Brown was called upon due to injury and ineffectiveness of the two signal callers ahead of him and all he has done is lead Troy to back to back outright conference crowns.

At first glance, Central Michigan falling from a four-point favorite to 2.5 at Sportsbook.com doesn’t seem to hold water. Among Troy’s losses is one at Bowling Green 31-14 in the season opener, whom the Chippewas whipped 24-10 as nine-point road favorites later in the season. By the same token can any MAC team be taken seriously in a bowl game having lost all nine matchups the last two years (0-8-1 ATS)? In search of a positive, when the MAC faces another non-BCS conference in a bowl game, the favorite is 13-1-1 ATS.

Central Michigan players are dealing with a coach leaving as Butch Jones continues taking Brian Kelly leftovers (Kelly was at CMU) and moved on to Cincinnati. That leaves Steve Stripling as the interim head coach and lame ducks are 1-2 this bowl season (though Florida State situation was different). Don’t look for this to be a big deal, as this senior class went thru this as freshmen and they are moving on themselves and are going to be more interested in winning than worrying about a coach leaving. The Chips are 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons, winning by more than 10 points per game.

The Troy defensive front seven is going to have to be effective in containing LeFevour since its secondary is below average. The Trojans are athletic enough with DE Cameron Sheffield and LB Boris (where’s Natasha?) Lee to keep CMU quarterback from roaming around. Brown will have to outplay LeFevour and he should have time to pass since Central Michigan doesn’t generate much of pass rush. Troy often feeds on momentum and is 8-0 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.

The Trojans have played in three prior bowl games with 1-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 going OVER the total. CMU is 1-4 all-time as a bowler and is 2-1 ATS.

With the total at 63 consider this, Troy is 9-1 OVER as an underdog and Central Michigan is 6-0 UNDER away from home after one or more consecutive straight up wins this season. ESPN has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern.

3DW Line – Central Michigan by 7