Thursday College Hoops Action

With the college basketball firmly entrenched in conference play, this night of the week tends to be the most unusual. Thursday has made for TV games on the worldwide leader and Pac-10 play. The rest tends to be a collection of teams you might see once every five years if you are serious student of the game and a large number of universities with hyphens. That’s OK, since Thursday is the second busiest weeknight for the sports bettor in college hoops and who doesn’t like the challenge of being the guru of the West Coast or Big West conferences. Here is a peak at a couple contests this evening.

Big East teams in need of rally

Louisville’s recent loss to Villanova pointed towards a problem the Cardinals have and isn’t going to go away without commitment. Louisville players like the feeding frenzy of pressing all over the court and forcing turnovers; however they haven’t taken a liking bending over, getting in defensive stance and guarding their man for 25 seconds or more. This is why the Cardinals (12-6, 5-8 ATS) allow an ordinary 42.2 percent shooting percent and it skyrockets to 45.5 percent on the road. In order for Louisville to become a better squad, coach Rick Pitino is going to have to convince them that defense isn’t just about making steals, it’s about preventing scoring. The Cards are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

Not unexpectedly, Seton Hall (10-6, 3-7 ATS) has struggled in Big East action with 1-4 record. The Pirates have three different players capable of playing point guard, what has hurt them is their weaknesses have been exposed in conference play and when one fails, the other hasn’t raised his level of play to compensate. Seton Hall insiders believe playing two of these guards at the same time might be a solution, however that makes a Pirates team lacking height ever shorter. The Hall’s defensive numbers don’t look too bad in allowing 41.7 percent shooting, but they have permitted 50 or more in last three outings and are 0-7 ATS in next game after surrendering 47 percent or more in a trio of games.

Coach Pitino by his own admission is off the second most difficult loss of his career at Pittsburgh (the Duke Christian Laettner game was the worst) and his team is a one point underdog at Bookmaker.com. Louisville is well suited for this spot with 15-3 ATS record as a road underdog of three points or less or pick. This has the appearance of a high scoring affair with either defense not playing especially well and both teams scoring over 80 points a game. The Cardinals are 10-2 OVER in all games this season and Seton Hall is 13-4 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

This is just the third Big East contest in New Jersey between teams (1-1 SU & ATS) with both games going Over. Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Pac-10 Mess

Let’s face it, the Pacific 10 conference this season looks like a California interstate, jam-packed and just waiting for a wreck to occur. The league actually looks like a wreck with three teams sporting two losses in league play and the other seven all with three defeats. The way it’s setting up, whoever finishes over .500 in the conference has a chance to be champion. The bracketologists of the world (do we need these guys or should President Obama just appoint a czar) have suggested if the Pac-10 plays out as many expect, the conference is looking at one NCAA bid, with two tops as the ceiling.

Tonight, Washington State (13-5, 5-10 ATS) visits USC (11-6, 9-7 ATS). These teams are polar opposites in the wagering world. The Cougars are 3-3 in league play with just one cover. What’s odd about this is Wazzou has shot 50 percent or higher in four of six Pac-10 games and still is 1-5 ATS. The Trojans return home off a three game road trip and look as good as any team in the conference.

With its well-documented off the court problems, USC made a strange hire in Kevin O’Neill though they didn’t have a lot of choices because of timing. The seemingly always sour-faced O’Neill found players willing to listen to his negative tone and defensive orientation and have responded. The turning point was upsetting Tennessee in early December and the Men of Troy have won nine of 11 and have covered six of seven including four in a row.

USC has been sent out as eight-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last three seasons. With the Trojans holding teams to 54.7 points per game on 36.7 percent shooting, it doesn’t place Washington State in favorable position with 0-8 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams allowing 57 or less points a game.